New England's first divisional game of 2012 comes at an interesting and unfamiliar spot in the early season schedule. The Patriots (1-2) travel to Buffalo to take on a Bills (2-1) team that's seemingly spent the entire offseason circling this battle on the schedule. But make no mistake this is a huge Week 4 game for both squads. Buffalo thinks that beating the Patriots, even a stumbling Patriots team, is a huge advancement in the team's battle for respect and confidence. New England, on the other hand, is looking to avoid its first three-game losing streak since 2002, pull back to .500 and start the year off on the right foot in terms of division play. Both teams are dealing with critical injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Both teams have designs on winning the AFC East. Only one will accomplish that goal in the end, and the Bills are already 0-1 in the division thanks to a loss to the Jets. The AFC East fun for the Patriots begins this weekend, but more importantly the team is looking to bounce back from a tough two-game stretch. It all happens at 1 p.m. at Ralph Wilson Stadium. To keep yourself entertained leading up to kickoff, here's a Bills Edition Friday Six-Pack! 1. Line up! – It's cliché to say that games are won and lost in the trenches in the NFL, and in this pass-happy era it's probably even a bit misleading. But I think this one will very much be swung by how the Patriots offensive line deals with the Bills front. New England has been a work in progress on the line, and things are worse now as
3. Closing thoughts – Brady is the first one to point out that the Patriots have not closed out games very well in 2012. And he's not just talking about last-second field goals and the actual final plays. He's talking about holding onto leads, getting first downs when needed and executing when it matters most. Despite New England's dominance over the Bills in the Bill Belichick era, it hasn't always been easy, especially in the first meeting of the season in the series. Last year was a 34-31 loss in Buffalo. In 2010 it was a 38-30 home win for New England. The year before it was a 25-24 comeback. And we all remember the Bills 31-0 win in the road opener in 2003. Buffalo makes life hard on the Patriots and that puts a premium on plays in the second half and late in the game if it's a close dogfight. More often than not in the past, and in this series, Brady and Co. have made those key plays at key times to get the job done. Not so much in 2012. That needs to change this week if the Patriots are to avoid another disappointment on the road. Four of the last seven season series openers against the Bills have been decided by 5 points or less.
4. Rush to cover – The Patriots pass defense is once again in the spotlight after giving up 382 yards to Joe Flacco and the Ravens. The band of brothers in the back end are again taking heat and being questioned. Atop that list is third-year corner and defensive captain
5. Back to work – New England's run defense has been trending in the wrong direction. It dominated Chris Johnson (who doesn't?) in the season opener. But last week Ray Rice went over 100 yards and averaged 5.1 a carry. The Bills come in with the No. 3 rushing attack in the NFL through the first three weeks, even with injuries all over the backfield. Fred Jackson got hurt early on and C.J. Spiller stepped in to the tune of 308 yards and a 9.3-yard average with three touchdowns before he injured his shoulder last week against the Browns. Tashard Choice even has 131 yards (4.1 avg.). But it looks like Jackson will be back this week. He's a productive, dangerous guy who's given the Patriots problems at times in the past. They've held him in check other times.
6. Emotional release – It's pretty clear that Belichick was hard on his team after last week's loss. It's pretty clear that he emphasized that nothing outside of the Bills was to be talked about, or even considered, this week. This team, especially its veterans, isn't used to losing. Brady and
Prediction:
While I'm not quite as confident as my boss – PFW's own Fred Kirsch is predicting an absolute demolition of the Bills – I do think the Patriots are due for a big, play-filled win. I certainly don't expect a loss, unlike what Tedy Bruschi predicted on ESPNBoston.com. I think the Patriots come out with a lot of emotion on both sides of the ball and you see that translate into playmaking on both sides. That will include some big plays in the passing game on offense and a turnover or two on defense. That will combine to dig a hole that Fitzpatrick and the Bills aren't nearly good enough to climb out of. Then the Patriots will turn things over to the running game a bit and pretty much cruise to the 35-10 victory that will leave Buffalo a bit baffled.