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Betting Breakdown: Week 11 vs. Jets

New England sits as a 3.5-home favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook. The spread is just one point higher in the Patriots favor than it was in the matchup three weeks ago in New York.

New York Jets running back Michael Carter (32).
New York Jets running back Michael Carter (32).

The New England Patriots (-3.5) are back from the bye and welcome a familiar foe to Foxboro in Week 11. For the second time in three games, the Patriots will take on their division rival New York Jets - who are also coming off of their bye.

After defeating the Jets 22-17 back in Week 8, New England sits as a 3.5-home favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook. The spread is just one point higher in the Patriots favor than it was in the matchup three weeks ago in New York.

Entering the week, both teams feature struggling offenses that rank near the bottom of the league in EPA/play. On the opposite side of the ball, New England has the top ranked defense in terms of EPA/play while the Jets rank third. The result? A 38.0-point total which is the lowest across the NFL board this week.

Here are four bets to watch throughout the division matchup.

Contain Carter

The key for the Patriots defense against the Jets is to limit their early down rushing attack. That is exactly what they did back in Week 8, as New York managed just a 13 percent success rate on early down rushes. With New York then behind the sticks, the Patriots' pass rush was able to heat up Zach Wilson and force three interceptions.

In the Jets next game against Buffalo, it was a different story. The Jets offense stayed on schedule thanks to a 50 percent success rate on early down rushes, allowing Zach Wilson to operate under less pressure. The effectiveness on early downs helped the Jets defeat the Bills in that contest.

On Sunday, the Patriots will look to execute as they did in the first matchup and limit the Jets rushing attack. They should have the advantage against a banged up Jets front. Also, after a bye week, it would be no surprise to see the Jets continue to integrate running back James Robinson more - who already out-carried Michael Carter in their last game 13-to-12.

The pick: Michael Carter Under 42.5 rushing yards (-115)

meyers-wm-jets-ds

Juggernaut Jakobi

In the Week 8 matchup, the Jets two-high safety looks and fierce defensive line forced Mac Jones into a season-low 4.7 air yards per pass attempt. The result was a team-high nine receptions and 13 targets for slot receiver Jakobi Meyers.

With Meyers lining up majority in the slot, he'll likely again avoid the Jets top cornerback duo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed Jr. He'll frequently see Michael Carter II and Lamarcus Joyner in the slot, who he caught five passes on five targets against in Week 8. In what should be a similar game on Sunday, look for Jones to hit Meyers early and often yet again.

The pick: Jakobi Meyers Over 4.5 receptions (+120)

Wandering Wilson

While we expect the Jets' ground game to be bottled up by New England's defense, that does not include Zach Wilson. Wilson is no Justin Fields or Lamar Jackson, but he's a strong enough athlete to make plays with his legs.

Despite being under heavy pressure in the Week 8 contest, Wilson seemed reluctant to run at times when flushed out of the pocket. He finished the game with just one rushing attempt for two yards. In their following game against Buffalo, that changed. Wilson finished with 24 yards on five carries, making plays with his legs under pressure.

As Jonathan Jones noted earlier this week, the Jets offense "found the recipe of how they want to play" against Buffalo, which was "completely the opposite of how they played" the Patriots several weeks ago. Perhaps Wilson making more plays with his legs is part of that formula.

The pick: Zach Wilson Over 10.5 rushing yards (-115)

Points at a Premium

The Patriots offensive struggles have been well-documented of late. While they hopefully ironed some things out throughout the bye week and get David Andrews back up the middle, it would be surprising if they came out guns blazing offensively - especially against a talented Jets defense that limited Buffalo to 17 points two weeks ago.

On the other side of things, the Jets fall in the same category. If the Patriots can dominate the trenches yet again, their defense should be able to control Zach Wilson and the New York passing attack.

Each of the Jets last four games have gone under the total points line, while New England's last two games before the bye also went under. Nobody likes betting unders, but these teams are just asking us to take it.

The pick: Total Points Under 38.0 (-115)

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