The Patriots are rolling as winners of seven straight games following another impressive road victory in Tampa Bay on Sunday.
For all the talk about the easy schedule, QB Drake Maye just went through a three-week slate where he faced three top-15 pass defenses in EPA: the Browns (15th), Falcons (11th), and Bucs (6th). Offensively, at least, this wasn't an easy stretch. Maye came out of the mini-gauntlet with the following stat line: 63.1% completion rate, 270.3 pass YPG, 7-3 TD to INT ratio, +0.06 EPA per play. And, of course, the most important stat is three wins — not too shabby.
As for the Bucs game, my fear was that we might see one-and-run Maye with the Bucs pressure speeding up the second-year quarterback. Maye entered the game with the second-most sacks (34) and the third-highest sack rate (10.7%) among qualified quarterbacks. Given that Tampa's defense was top-10 in every meaningful pass-rush metric, it was valid to be concerned about Maye either taking sacks or not allowing plays to develop by hitting the eject button from the pocket prematurely.
Instead, Maye keeps passing checkpoints with mostly sound decision-making of when to stay or leave the pocket, while throwing haymakers at an aggressive Bucs defense in the form of big plays. Despite being under pressure on 44.4% of his drop-backs, Maye was only sacked once, a 1-yard sack at that, while hitting four completions for 167 yards and a touchdown while under pressure — Maye learns quickly, and this was a gutsy performance by the young QB.
The other half of the Patriots offensive letterhead that deserves his flowers is OC Josh McDaniels. McDaniels's willingness to stick with the run game even though it was looking bleak at times paid huge dividends in the second half. Even yours truly got impatient watching live as RB TreVeyon Henderson was stuffed on a toss, only for the rookie to explode for a 69-yard TD to essentially put this one away. That's why we're fans/scribes and McDaniels has the play-sheet on the sideline.
By committing to the run game each week, it gives New England's offense balance. It's not just about production, which eventually came by way of two 'X' plays. It's also about setting up play-action, allowing Maye to hunt explosives and limiting the exposure to standard drop-back passing, which is harder to execute, especially from a blocking standpoint. On Sunday, the Patriots willingness to stick to the run game led to only 36 drop-backs for Maye. On the season, the Patriots rank 18th in drop-backs per game (36.4) and 12th in run+play-action rate (56%).
So, the next time we're frustrated that they're running the football into a brick wall, remember all the successful play-actions, boots, and Maye bombs into single-high safety coverages that are built off the run actions, while the dam finally broke on Henderson's two explosive runs.
Here is a breakdown of the Patriots defense and quick-hit film notes from the win over the Bucs After Further Review.
Defense Review: Pats Defense Improving on Late Downs and Starting to Limit Explosives
Watching the Patriots pass defense has been an adjustment as they transition to a new defensive scheme under head coach Mike Vrabel and defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr this season.
Admittedly, relying on my Twitter/X mentions for general fan opinions about the Patriots defense is probably a bad idea, especially when we are live-tweeting games where things get, let's just say, emotional (we've all been there). Still, I understand some fans' stance about how they play pass coverage. On film, there's "easy money" available via completions underneath soft zone coverages (hitches, slants, outs, etc.).
As far as the eye test goes, it looks too easy at times. Statistically, the eye test is backed up by the Patriots early-down pass defense ranking 25th in EPA per play on the season, with the Bucs adding +0.33 EPA per on early-down passes (Mayfield: 20-of-32 for 226 yards vs. zone coverage). To take it a step further, the Patriots average cushion by their perimeter corners on early downs is 6.0 yards, which is right in the middle of the pack, ranking 16th in the NFL.
Although the early-down defense could improve, the Patriots rank sixth in scoring defense (19.2 PPG), 12th in drop-back EPA, fifth in third-down defense, and the explosive play rate is improving. Over the last five games, or since Week 6, New England's explosive pass play rate is down to a much more manageable 12.4% (seventh-best in the NFL). In their first five games, they were giving up an explosive pass play at a league-high rate of 21%, so they're showing real signs of improvement there.
If you have a defense that's good on third down, limits big plays, and is stout vs. the run, paired with a high-powered offense, you're going to win a lot of games. Ideally, maybe they're a little tighter in coverage on those easy money throws. But that's inviting passing offenses to beat you over the top. And maybe that's just the formula in the modern NFL. On Monday, Vrabel discussed the balancing act between being aggressive and backing off in coverage.
"I think a lot of it is based on game situation, down and distance, coverage. We want to challenge. Sometimes, if you're in a different coverage or at the end of the game, I think maybe sometimes that plays into it. So, I think there's a fine balance of that," Vrabel said. "There has to be something that you are going to have to be okay with. If it's a five-yard route and some sort of cover two, then we have to be able to vice tackle and understand that we're going to have to be okay with that. Other coverages that you're not, and things that everybody has to be prepared for when we play certain coverages. So, being able to challenge at the right times, certainly third down. And then other times where we're going to have to maybe play a little off [coverage]."
On Sunday, the Patriots had some great coverage reps against the Bucs designed shot plays and Tampa only had a 17% drop-back success rate on third and fourth downs (5-14 overall).
Starting with the shot plays, the Bucs dial up the same Yankee Concept that the Patriots hit on Williams' 72-yard touchdown – two deep crossing routes intersecting downfield. However, New England defends the concept in quarters coverage rather than cover-three, which is what the Pats got from the Bucs defense on Williams' TD. The Pats use the two-high safeties to cover the deep crossers, forcing Mayfield into a check-down attempt.
On the next play, the Bucs try to dial up a shot again in the second half. This time, S Craig Woodson rotates down over the slot to match the receiver shift that changes this into a nub formation (TE furthest eligible outside to the left) into the short side of the field. Tampa Bay then runs a go-slot wheel vertical passing concept, but CB Christian Gonzalez carries the outside vertical, and Woodson is alert to the wheel, forcing Mayfield into another check-down.
When the Patriots get third-and-pass situations, they're playing more man coverage. Above, New England plays a third-and-3 in cover-one hole, where LB Robert Spillane serves as a spy and low-hole help defender to first-level in-breakers. Mayfield has double digs with his tight end (first) and Egbuka (second) running into the middle of the field. However, Spillane hangs out in the passing window while the primary defenders (Hawkins and Gonzalez) have good coverage on the in-breakers, forcing the Bucs QB to hold the football. Eventually, edge-rusher K'Lavon Chaisson gets home for a sack to get the defense off the field.
As we mentioned with the running game, it can be frustrating when the Patriots are giving up 10-yard outs underneath their zone coverages. But there's a method to the madness, with New England doing so to keep a lid on the early-down defense before tightening up on third down. Yes, it's a little bend, don't break, but it's working for this pass defense.
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Bucs After Further Review
Offense
- Entering the week, the Bucs had only surrendered one goal-line rushing touchdown, and the Patriots had some struggles. New England was stuffed six times in short-yardage runs: 2nd-and-1 stuff, stuffed sneak (3rd-and-1), stuffed sneak (1st-and-goal TB1), 2nd-and-goal stuff (TB1), third-and-goal stuff (TB1), and another goal-line run stuff (1st-and-goal from TB3). Again, that's a clear strength of the Bucs defense with DT Vita Vea clogging the inside, but it put the Pats in some tough late-down spots (Diggs TD on fourth down, Maye INT on third-and-goal).
- On his first carry in Sunday's game, RB TreVeyon Henderson broke off a 16-yard toss where he got tackled by Bucs CB Jamal Dean, who was the last line of defense. At that point, we probably should've seen the big plays coming. Henderson made a nice duo read to hit the B-Gap on his 55-yard TD and ran through two tackle attempts on his 69-yard TD (70 yards after contact). He maxed out at 21+ MPH on both touchdowns, while maxing out at 22.01 MPH on his 55-yarder, the fifth-fastest speed by a ball carrier in the NFL this season. My only gripe with Henderson was that he left some yards on the field on his 3-yard check-down. Besides that, this is what you hope to get from him: three 15-plus-yard carries that offset five stuffed runs.
- WR Mack Hollins was a QB-friendly target several times on curls/spot routes, remained available for Maye on an extended 15-yard catch on third down, and used a little stutter-and-go to run by Bucs CB Zyon McCollum on his 54-yard catch. The blocking was a bit of a mixed bag, but Hollins was at the point of attack, blocking the safety on Henderson's first TD. You can tell why Maye likes throwing to him; he's a big target who is strong at the catch point and will work in the dirty areas.
- WR Kyle Williams hit 21.78 MPH on his 72-yard touchdown, which came on the backside crosser of a max protection Yankee concept. With Hollins occupying the deep safety, Williams was 1-on-1 with Bucs CB Benjamin Morrison. Maye's pass was perfectly placed as Morrison was trying to undercut the route, and Williams was gone. The rookie also had a few nice perimeter blocks. Boutte is this team's starting 'X' receiver, but it's good to see that Williams can contribute some big plays and gritty blocking when in a larger role (season-high 34 snaps).
- WR Stefon Diggs's technical savvy is a joy to watch every single week. His toe-tapping touchdown catch was textbook, he ran a well-timed 9-step stop route with Maye dropping back from under center (10 yards), caught a 19-yard crosser, and drew a 10-yard DPI, while throwing a solid block on a crack toss scheme. Diggs's box score production might not jump out at you every week (5 catches, 46 yards, TD), but there's just so much skill to the way he runs routes.
- Although he was an ankle-biting tackle away from scoring, my favorite part of WR DeMario Douglas's 26-yard catch on third down was how he saw the space in the zone-blitz with the end dropping out. Douglas uncovered quickly against pressure and was right where Maye expected – that's a good sign. He was also open for a big play on the inside post in a double-post concept, but the ball sailed on Maye when he was hit as he threw it.
- TE Hunter Henry wasn't on the same page as Maye on an incomplete target, where Maye seemed to want Henry to break out into the flat, and Henry sat. However, he did have a nice 9-yard screen, was open up the shoot for a potential big play and had three solid blocks: one on Henderson's first touchdown and another where he transitioned into a blocker to clip the post-safety to spring Douglas on his 26-yard catch. Every week, you see receivers blocking downfield when the play transitions into YAC mode, which helps generate explosives.
- NT Khyiris Tonga is one of the best converted lead-blockers I've ever seen. He absolutely demolishes the line of scrimmage, is athletic enough to block in motion, and already has a good feel for blocking the "first color" on the line of scrimmage. Tonga took out multiple defenders on Henderson's second touchdown while helping the Pats RB get the edge – he's a beast.
- As expected, LT Will Campbell battled with Bucs EDGE Yaya Diaby, allowing three pressures on Diaby's stab-rip move that created short corners. Campbell had the right idea when he got his eyes back inside on a QB hit off a stunt, but you have to give Vea more than just a lowered shoulder – that's not going to stop that guy. The encouraging thing about Campbell's play is that he's not getting blown by in pass protection, with Maye having a chance to slide up in the pocket to help out his left tackle on some of these short corners. Overall, Campbell was solid.
- LG Jared Wilson allowed a QB hit to Vea, and they're going to need to live with those power engagements from Wilson, but his pass pro has mostly been solid over the last few weeks, and he flashes when he's blocking laterally or in space. He and Campbell need to keep working on T/E stunts, though, as Diaby got free on another one that resulted in a big hit on Maye, who had Douglas open for a big play. Wilson was also called for a false start when he jumped as Maye was directing pre-snap traffic.
- C Garrett Bradbury did what he could against Vea, but we knew going in that the Pats center would have his hands full. Bradbury allowed four total pressures to Vea and was late to come off a double team that resulted in a stunt/blitz pressure. Vea also went through his outside edge to blow up a run play, and DT Greg Gaines stuffed a run against Bradbury. Bradbury competes on every single rep and does what he can to lose slowly, but Vea is just a monster in there.
- RG Mike Onwenu had an excellent duo block on Henderson's first touchdown, creating initial movement with Moses before coming off the double team to block David, and Henderson did the rest. Onwenu had another plus-run block on a third-and-2 run conversion from inside the five, and allowed just one hurry in pass pro. This was one of his better games, especially against this level of competition.
- RT Morgan Moses drove DT Elijah Roberts out of the gap that Henderson hit on his 55-yard TD, got out on space on a 16-yard crack toss scheme that Henderson nearly broke for another long touchdown, and had a nice second-level climb on a successful zone-read run. My only minor gripes with Moses this week were his false start and a goal-line run stuff – he was really good.
- QB Pressures: Bradbury (six hurries), Campbell (QB hit, three hurries), Wilson (QB hit), Hooper (QB hit), Moses (hurry), Onwenu (hurry).
Defense
- Although their longest run was still only 18 yards, this was the worst run defense performance of the year for the Patriots across the board: rush EPA (+0.15), success rate (57.1%), 10-plus runs (5), yards per rush (5.4), and they allowed their first 50-yard individual rusher. Was LB Christian Elliss the missing piece? A back injury also limited Barmore, and there seemed to be some disjointed run fits where the linebackers were fitting inside (box rules) and the ends were crashing (spill rules). They'll have to clean it up quickly, as the Jets can beat you on the ground offensively.
- Along those same lines, the Patriots need some solutions for jet sweeps because they're getting them every week. Tampa Bay hit them with two 11-yard chunks off jet sweeps, where they caught the Pats chasing the motion across the field in man coverage. Whether it's a check to pass off the motion or better awareness by the man coverage defenders, it's an area they need to work on.
- The Patriots went into prevent defense mode on the Bucs final possession, backing off Tampa Bay's receivers to the point where the Bucs scored in less than a minute to force the Pats to recover an onside kick. On a 21-yard completion to Egbuka, they were in a cover three, and Gonzalez gave Egbuka the first 15 yards for free. Ultimately, the game wasn't really in doubt, but you'd like to make the Bucs work for it more.
- DT Milton Williams continues to set a relentless tone with his sideline-to-sideline hustle every week. Williams was continuously avoiding reach blocks on the line of scrimmage to force ball carriers back inside, logged 1.5 run stuffs, and three pressures with a smooth transition into a bull rush on a play-action drop-back and his inside-out crossover rush. Williams said after the game that swarming to the football is a "non-negotiable" for this defense, and it makes it easier to preach that for Vrabel when the highest-paid player plays with this kind of motor.
- CB Christian Gonzalez had an active afternoon. The Pats zone-blitz didn't get home on Egbuka's 24-yard dig on the opening drive, leaving Gonzalez in off-coverage without any defenders underneath the route. He also gave up 12-yard and 11-yard outs from off-coverage and was called for a 22-yard DPI covering a slot fade in press-man. Gonzalez could squeeze some of these off-coverage targets better, but he's still not getting beaten in man-to-man. On 13 man coverage reps, Gonzalez allowed two catches for 12 yards on five targets. Most of the damage done was while Gonzo was in zone.
- Although he allowed the 11-yard TD on the Bucs final drive, S Craig Woodson is starting to have the game slow down for him with some quality coverage reps on Sunday. Woodson broke up a pass in the flat, flew downhill as a split-safety at a spot route to separate Otton from the ball on a third-and-3, had a great post-safety rep to take away Mayfield's first read then squeezed a seam route (incomplete pass), and carried a slot wheel as a low-zone defender to erase a shot play. Woodson plays fast and physical and is seeing the game develop around him – exciting progress for the rookie.
- DT Christian Barmore was quiet for the second straight week with only one run stuff and zero pressures. He was then in-and-out of the game with a back injury, so maybe he's playing through an injury? We chalked it up to seeing 14 double-teams in a quieter performance in Week 9, but this is two weeks in a row where Barmore hasn't been his usual disruptive self – something to monitor.
- NCB Marcus Jones is having a bit of a down two-week stretch where he's on the scene for coverage busts in the high red zone, both times with the defense in quarters. Egbuka ran a nice route on his TD to delay/snooze the wheel release, but one would think that Jones is supposed to carry vertical there to avoid the flooded zone. He also missed a tackle on a seven-yard run and was in man coverage on an 11-yard jet sweep.
- CB Carlton Davis was mostly away from the action, but he was in coverage on a 10-yard TD. Davis is having some issues staying connected on extended man coverage reps over the last two weeks. In his defense, the pass rush could help him out – he can't cover forever. Besides that, Davis seemed to show out against his former team.
- LB Jack Gibbens had an eventful afternoon filling in for Elliss. He had some good and not-so-good reps. On the positive side, he logged a blitz pressure, had a near-INT on a zone drop, stopped two check-downs for short or negative gains, and contributed to a run stuff. However, he also got beat by Otton a few times in coverage, one on a 16-yard catch and another away from the ball. That said, Gibbens does tackle well in space.
- LB Robert Spillane also had some good and not-so-good. Spillane was on the scene for Tucker's 18-yard run, where Chaisson crashed inside, and Spillane stayed inside instead of overlapping. He was also in the hook zone where Mayfield layered a beautiful 31-yard pass into Egbuka. On a positive note, Spillane had a great cover-1 rep as a low-hole/spy, contributed to two screen stuffs, and had a pass breakup on a check down. From this perspective, there were late fills in the run game from all the linebackers, with an off-day for the group in run defense.
- EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson had three impactful pressures on a bootleg, a key fourth-down pressure on a stunt, and finally got Mayfield down on his sack. He also had a good edge set on a stuffed run. Chaisson's speed-to-power and bend on his ghost/rip continued to flash on film, logging six total pressures in another productive day.
- EDGE Harold Landry has also been quiet over the last several games since injuring his ankle in New Orleans. I have no idea if those two things are related, but it seems notable. Landry had a run stuff, screen stuff, and logged three pressures (one via a blitz). But the 1-on-1 wins haven't been there consistently in the last 3-4 games. Again, maybe he's playing through injury.
- Along with playing offense, NT Khyiris Tonga contributed on defense with two pressures (bull rush, stunt). The Bucs were hitting Tonga with some influence traps/whams to get him upfield to set up cutbacks. He did well to stay engaged, but the backside pursuit didn't do as well, allowing the Bucs runners to cut back twice for positive runs. Tampa had some schemed interior runs for Barmore, Tonga, and Williams.
- Two underrated standouts: DT Cory Durden continues to be a favorite depth player of mine. He is a strong dude at the point of attack, either pressing blockers into the backfield or holding his ground in the run game. Also, shoutout to EDGE Elijah Ponder for his first sack against two-time All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs with a speed-rip rush. Logging your first-career sack on Wirfs is pretty neat.
- QB Pressures: Chaisson (sack, hit, four hurries), Ponder (sack, hurry), Williams (QB hit, two hurries), Landry (QB hit, two hurries), Durden (three hurries), Tonga (two hurries), Woodson (QB hit), Gibbens (hurry). Run stuffs: one each (Gonzalez, Barmore, Durden, Williams, Tavai, Spillane, Landry, Jennings).
- Coverage: Gonzalez (12/5/61 yards/PBU), Gibbens (7/7/43 yards/PBU), Spillane (7/6/50 yards/PBU), Woodson (4/2/20 yards/TD/PBU), Davis (4/2/20 yards/TD), Mapu (3/3/43 yards), Jones (3/3/40 yards/TD), Hawkins (2/0/0). Tavai (1/0/0).
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