How can you not be romantic about the chess match between play-callers in the NFL? It's the best part of the game within the game.
Last week, we led off After Further Review by noting that the Patriots were seeing the highest rate of single-high safety shells in the league through six weeks. Although it wasn't meant to be an excuse, it was a big reason why New England's run game ranked last in expected points added (EPA) and 27th in rushing yards per game through Week 6, while QB Drake Maye was dismantling single-high safety coverages by ranking second in EPA per play when teams played with one lone deep-safety over the top of the defense to get an extra defender in the box.
Since opposing defenses didn't fear the Patriots passing game yet, the Pats were running the ball into loaded boxes, and admittedly struggling. But the takeaway here was once defenses adjust to Maye's ascension into the top-10 quarterback conversation, will the Patriots still struggle to run? If the Patriots couldn't run defenses out of two-high safety shells, that's when it was time to truly worry about the ground game.
On Sunday, we got our answer. Now, it's worth noting that the Titans defense came into the week ranked 24th in EPA vs. the run, so this wasn't a good Tennessee run defense that the Patriots faced. Still, the Titans opened the game in two-high safety shells to force the Patriots to run the ball. On the opening drive, RB Rhamondre Stevenson rushed five times for 42 yards (8.4 YPC). In all, Stevenson had a season-high 10 carries for 71 rushing yards vs. the Titans two-high safety structures. So, this week, we got our answer: Yes, the Patriots can run the ball well enough to make defenses pay for playing two-high safeties.
"We were more decisive. We gave them a chance early at the line of scrimmage. To be able to get into the line of scrimmage, to be able to make some breaks and give them some space," head coach Mike Vrabel said on Monday. "If you want to hit some big ones, you're going to have to be able to block support players, you're going to have to be able to block safeties, block force. But I thought we got them through the line of scrimmage at times. I thought we were decisive. There were times where there wasn't anything there and we got a couple yards, and then there were times where there was things there and we got double digit runs."
Here's a little snipit of the chess match between OC Josh McDaniels and Titans DC Dennard Wilson on Sunday. With the Titans in two-high shells on 64.5% of their defensive plays (season-high vs. the Patriots), McDaniels puts 21-personnel on the field and runs his vintage lead play that gains eight yards into a neutral box (seven defenders).
In the second half, the Titans were forced to adjust due to New England's RBs averaging 6.8 yards per rush in the first half (11 attempts, 75 yards). This time, the Titans play the two-back formation with a single-high safety, so McDaniels dials up play-action off lead-action to sell the run. The run-action sucks the linebacker level into the line of scrimmage, and WR Mack Hollins hits a 27-yard explosive play off the glance route.
Ultimately, it's a pick your poison league. Mostly, defenses will concede the run because Stevenson's average vs. two-high safeties (7.1 YPC) is better than the 9.5 yards per pass attempt that Maye is averaging against single-high safety shells. In the examples above, eight yards is better than 27 yards – you get the idea. Still, it was fascinating to see what happens when a defense game-plans New England's passing game, which is a sign that the league is on-notice about Maye and his receivers.
As for Maye, he continues to put up terrific numbers with a franchise record in single-game completion rate (91.3%) on only two incomplete passes. Maye held serve as the third-highest rated passer in EPA (+0.33) and is now fifth in total QBR (77.1). That said, Maye alluded to some poor scramble decisions in his post-game comments, which drew a laugh from everyone in the room (I mean, the guy completed 21-of-23 passes). Although it's nitpicky, Maye was a little too scramble-happy, passing up open receivers from clean pockets to run, which is fine when you hit chunks of 19 and 11 yards. But, as we saw, it also puts Maye in harm's way, and he has to stay healthy to continue leading this team to wins.
The Patriots offense is now ninth in scoring (25.9 PPG), 12th in DVOA (6.5%) and eighth in EPA (+0.12) with a second-year quarterback playing like a top-five passer in the NFL. Now, it's about fine-tuning the process so New England can continue building on a strong foundation.
Here's a review of the Patriots defense and quick-hit film notes from Sunday's win over the Titans After Further Review.
Defense Review: Patriots Struggling with the 'Opening Script' and in Man Coverage, But Settling Down Once Game Declares
There's a seven-week trend brewing for the Patriots that's both good and bad: New England's defensive splits vs. the opponents opening script.
The opening script refers to the first ~15 pre-planned plays by the opposing offense. Most play-callers come into games with game-planned plays that they practiced all week that they expect will work against a defense based on film study. Oftentimes, offenses are successful within the opening script and then fizzle out because they run out of perfectly crafted plays or defenses adjust.
Patriots Defense | First Three Drives | Rest of Game |
---|---|---|
EPA/Play | +0.15 (30th) | -0.17 (3rd) |
Success Rate | 58.1% (32nd) | 41.6% (10th) |
Explosive Play Rate | 19.4% (30th) | 11.1% (8th) |
In the first seven weeks, the Patriots are a defense that survives the script and then settles into the game. They've surrendered points on five of their opponents seven opening drives, but digging even deeper, New England is one of the worst defenses in the NFL on opponents' first three drives: +0.15 EPA/play (30th), 19.4% explosive play rate (30th), and last in play success rate (58.1%). However, once they're out of the script, the Patriots defense is actually pretty stingy, ranking third in EPA per play (-0.17) and tenth in play success rate (41.6%).
Here's one more crazy stat for you: the Patriots have allowed the same amount of points in the opponents first three drives as they've allowed the entire rest of the game — 133 points on 129 plays in the first three drives to 133 points on 262 plays after the third drive.
The Patriots defense is a different unit once the game "declares" after the opening script. The good news is they're leveling off in these games, but the bad news is they're starting slow, even against limited offenses like the Titans who went FG, TD, punt, FG to score 13 points in their first four possessions on Sunday. After that, the Pats shut the Titans out.
"We just didn't do a very good job of matching their script and their scheme plays. We've got to do a better job of being ready to go with some plays that maybe they've seen on tape or that are new and using our fundamentals. But got beat on the script in their first plays and we'll have to do a better job," Vrabel said. "[The Titans] talked about throwing the throwback off the boot, off the keeper. So, they've had that in. Just like everybody else, they'll see stuff on tape and try to dial it up or try to do something. That's what this league's about."
The other not-so-good trend for the Patriots defense is that they're struggling in man coverage. This season, New England ranks last in EPA per drop-back in man coverage (+0.39), while allowing 8.7 yards per pass attempt with an 30.1 man coverage rate (11th in the NFL), which isn't a great formula for a pass defense that was built to play man-to-man. On Sunday, Titans QB Cam Ward went 4-for-5 for 85 yards and a touchdown vs. man coverage in the first half.

One coverage that New England has been hit or miss in is man-free, or cover-one with only a single-high deep safety (see still photo above). The Pats are playing a lot of man-free structures where they're blitzing from the second level in man coverage. The alternative coverage would be cover-one robber, where there's post-safety help over the top and a "robber" to help on the second level. However, robber coverage would take a defender out of the pass rush to play with two help defenders: do you sacrifice rush for coverage to provide more help to the corners?
The Titans did a nice job undressing the coverage on this third-and-3. Tennessee motions TE Chig Okonkwo out to the slot on the three-receiver side, forcing S Craig Woodson to declare that he's in man coverage on the tight end. At the snap, LB Christian Elliss blitzes from the second level with linebackers Robert Spillane and Harold Landry dropping into "hot" zones that are designed to take away first-level answers to the blitz. Titans RB Tony Pollard does enough to block Elliss's blitz, giving Ward time, and CB Christian Gonzalez is left in a tough spot to cover a slant by WR Van Jefferson.
Although it's a different pressure scheme, the idea was the same when Saints WR Rasheed Shaheed hit a 17-yarder in Week 6. Once again, the Pats play man-free blitz coverage, leaving the corners on islands with only post-safety help. This time, Shaheed wins into the middle of the field against CB Carlton Davis III on a nearly identical backside slant. In both instances, the quarterback is under some pressure, but the coverage could be tighter on the backend to get the QB to hold the ball.
To the Pats defense's credit, they had several good coverage reps in the second half, where Ward was 3-of-4 for 21 yards and three sacks in the third quarter before padding his stats in garbage time. When the Patriots marry man coverage with impactful pass rush, they can be a good pass defense, but the key is getting tight enough coverage to get the quarterback to hold the ball, allowing the pass-rush to win up front.
On this third down, New England plays man-free with a six-man rush out of a double mug front (rush linebackers in the A-Gaps). Jones (deep) and Davis (shallow) stick with the crossers in man coverage this time, and EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson uses a "ghost" rush to duck underneath the left tackle for a sack. So, there are good man-coverage reps on film by the Patriots defense.
Last offseason, the Patriots signed Davis to form a top cornerback duo with Gonzalez, who was coming off an All-Pro season. Plus, captain Marcus Jones also excels in man-to-man, so why is New England inconsistent in man coverage? From this perspective, the answer is that man coverage systems are built on corners playing off their middle-of-the-field help, allowing them to eliminate certain routes from the equation. For example, in post-safety coverages, corners should only need to think about go/corner routes and horizontal breaks (digs, outs, etc.) because the deep safety should close off a receiver running a post. If that help isn't there or doesn't come, it's truly covering receivers on an island, which is challenging.
Ultimately, teams like the Saints and Titans weren't consistent enough to sustain offense, which is why the Patriots only allowed 19 and 13 points over the last two weeks. However, the competition will get tougher in the regular season, and dare we say, possibly the playoffs (playoffs!).
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Pats-Titans
Offense
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson generated 62 rushing yards after contact and forced six missed tackles with three runs of 10-plus yards (16, 14 and 11). Stevenson took advantage of lighter boxes as we already covered. However, along with the ball security, the most encouraging part was that Stevenson was making decisive reads to see cutback lanes and find the clean entry points on inside zone/duo schemes. The Pats seemed to emphasize getting the ball to him earlier, which allowed Stevenson to read and react more decisively. He also saved a run TFL by stiff-arming an unblocked blitzer to gain four yards, which is when you know Stevenson is rolling.
- WR Stefon Diggs had some vintage plays in this one catching all seven of his targets for 69 yards. The late hands, drop-in-the-bucket throw on his 18-yard go route was absolutely clinical. He also found the soft spot in zone for a 24-yard gain on third down, caught a 12-yard pass in the flat on a designed rollout, and made a great hands catch in a tight window on a seven-yard slant. It just feels like Maye and Diggs can say "let's make a play" whenever they want, which is a blessing for this offense.
- WR Kayshon Boutte continues to maximize his targets with a 39-yard TD and a 16-yard catch in the cover-two hole. Boutte's touchdown came on the backside against quarters where CB L'Jaruis Sneed and S Quandre Diggs got caught with bad eye discipline, and Boutte ran right by them. Boutte might not be a true burner, but he had plenty of juice on his long touchdown (20.25 MPH).
- WR Mack Hollins had a nice, well-rounded game. Hollins caught two explosives in the cover-two hole (22 yards) and on a glance route off play-action (27 yards). He also had three 'plus' blocks in the run game, including a great "crack" block on a safety flying downhill on an 8-yard run. This is what Hollins does when he's at his best.
- TE Austin Hooper bailed Maye out on a slightly under-thrown corner route, taking it off Sneed's back to dunk on the Titans CB for a touchdown. Hooper and TE Hunter Henry also combined to have five 'plus' blocks in the run game. This was their best run-blocking performance as a tight end duo. It doesn't feel like a coincidence that the Pats had their best rushing performance when Hollins and the tight ends were blocking well.
- Kudos to backup QB Joshua Dobbs for being ready when called upon. Dobbs's third down play to avoid a blitzer in the backfield and find WR DeMario Douglas off-script kept the drive out of the half alive, with the possession eventually ending in a touchdown. That's a field goal drive, keeping it a one-score game if Dobbs doesn't step up.
- LT Will Campbell started well with two standout blocks on positive runs. He also only allowed one non-schemed pressure on a bull rush, where he eventually dropped anchor and pancaked the rusher, and had a nice stunt pickup on a third down conversion. The down blocks, frontside reaches, and fan blocks (on lead plays) were working for Campbell. However, he fell off a frontside reach (run TFL), allowed a third-down QB hit when he didn't block out to a blitzer off the edge, and false started. Overall, you'll take the rookie moments against schemed rushes for the solid 1-on-1 pass pro and run blocking reps.
- LG Jared Wilson was on the scene for three sacks. The inside stunt scheme was split between Campbell and Wilson, but the defender wrapped inside into Wilson's gap (it was a good scheme by TEN). Wilson also allowed a sack to NT T'Vondre Sweat on a double swipe on a play-action set and LB Jihad Ward got Wilson on a third-down red zone sack. That said, Wilson also had a fantastic second-level climb that sprung Stevenson on his 16-yard run that was maybe the best run block any Pats OL has put on film this season. There are positive flashes on film.
- C Garrett Bradbury handled Sweat well early, a tough matchup for an undersized center against a massive nose tackle, and turned/reached out on a fantastic combo block with Wilson on Stevenson's 16-yard run. However, Bradbury still had some shaky moments trying to dig out bigger run-stuffers while being on the scene for five run stuffs. The interior power between Bradbury and Wilson in the run game can be hit or miss.
- RG Mike Onwenu allowed pressure when he didn't come off a double-team fast enough to pick up a blitz, but had some solid combination blocking with his partner at right tackle, and didn't have any blown blocks in the run game like we've seen in other weeks – a solid outing.
- RT Morgan Moses was the Pats best lineman with a clean sheet and four standout run blocks. Moses worked a great combo block for an 11-yard run and sealed the edge for Stevenson to walk in on his TD. They're giving Moses chip help on traditional drop-backs, but he has allowed just two hurries over the last four games and one sack in seven games.
- WR Kyle Williams's third-down target as the isolated receiver on the backside of a 3x1 was possibly a coachable moment for the rookie. Williams hit the corner with multiple stutters/fakes before getting to the top of the route, leading to a slight hesitation from Maye, which then led to pressure and a high throw. You can't waste time in the NFL: get off the line, run the corner off and stop at the sticks.
- WR Efton Chism III played nine snaps on offense, his first snaps on offense this season (excluding kneel-downs). He only ran two routes and wasn't targeted, but Chism's block of the "force" defender on the edge allowed Stevenson to bounce a duo run for 14 yards.
- QB Pressures: Wilson (2.5 sacks), Campbell (0.5 sack, QB hit), Onwenu (hurry), Bradbury (clean), Moses (clean).
Defense
-EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson is on a two-game heater with a fumble recovery touchdown, a third-down sack using his "ghost" rush, another third-down sack cleaning up a Landry pressure, and an additional hurry as the looper on a stunt. In the last two games, Chaisson now has 12 total pressures. Although he missed the tackle, he also gets credit for blowing up an end-around which led to a one-yard loss. The veteran edge-rusher ate in New Orleans and Nashville.
- EDGE Harold Landry might've been less than 100% for this one due to his ankle injury, but he still logged a sack on a tackle-end stunt, had another stunt hurry that led to a sack, stuffed a run setting the edge, and drew a hold on RT J.C. Latham. Landry was in the area on a 9-yard completion as a zone-dropper, but he made some impact plays in his return to Tennessee.
- DT Christian Barmore had two more quarterback pressures to bring his season total to 21. I'm going to start calling him a "pick artist" for his work on stunt schemes. Barmore routinely occupies two blockers to get the edges free to loop into the backfield, with Barmore setting a pick for his teammate on Landry's sack. He did get reached on outside zone on a seven-yard run, but the stud DTs impact is felt every week.
- DT Milton Williams got off the ball so quickly on his third-down sack (1.01s get off) that RT J.C. Latham couldn't execute his down block off the boot-fake to get QB Cam Ward on the edge. Williams also logged a bull-rush pressure and his motor to chase down a RB screen saved a bigger play (gained 8 yards). It's impressive to watch how much Williams hustles to the ball on tape.
- The perception of CB Carlton Davis III's performance depends on your expectations. If you were expecting a true "No. 1B" corner to Gonzalez, we haven't gotten that level of play. Still, he's a solid No. 2 corner, who gives up a play or two a game (20-yard crosser) and can get grabby in coverage (DPI, fifth coverage penalty this season). The early shallow crosser to WR Elic Ayomanor was the only man-coverage catch Davis allowed in this game. It's fair to say he hasn't been a lockdown corner, but he's also only allowing 27.4 yards per game. Maybe we just set the bar a little too high of what the Pats were getting when Davis signed as a free agent.
- Besides the 15-yard completion on third down, CB Christian Gonzalez had a quiet day at the office with only two targets into his coverage. Gonzalez rarely gets beat in man coverage like he did by WR Van Jefferson on Sunday, but he locked down his man on his other five man-coverage reps. If there's an area to improve in the All-Pro corners' game, it's covering in-breaking routes from outside-leveraged techniques. Slightly better anticipation based on formation, down-and-distance, etc. could allow him to erase those routes as well.
- CB Marcus Jones was the primary defender on Titans WR Chimere Dike's 38-yard TD, but we'd put that more on rookie S Craig Woodson as the post-safety. Jones didn't allow another catch into his coverage and made two excellent plays near the line of scrimmage. He came from the other side of the formation for a TFL on an end-around (Chaisson MT), blew up a screen, and then was in the right spot to catch the deflection on his interception – he's playing at a high level.
- S Kyle Dugger was solid in this film, staying home in the flat on a third-and-1 sack (Williams) to force Ward to hold the ball and blowing up the tight end's "sift" block to contribute to a stuffed run. The lone catch he allowed came in the honey hole as a split-field safety in cover-two. Dugger's coverage discipline is improving, and his physicality vs. the run is starting to show. You wonder if he'll continue to get playing time even when starter Jaylinn Hawkins returns.
- S Craig Woodson was the deep-safety help on the 38-yard TD to Dike. Like Saints rookie S Jonas Sanker the week before, Woodson got turned around by the corner-post route, leaving Jones in a tough spot in deep coverage. Woodson also nearly blew up a screen but was blocked at the last second by RB Tony Pollard, leading to a 12-yard gain. He did have some better man coverage reps on tight ends this week and stuffed a run.
- LB Robert Spillane was victim to a well-placed dart by Ward on a play-action crosser (18 yards), where Spillane was the pole-runner (deep player between the two safeties) and tried to fall underneath the crosser after the run-action. That's a difficult route to cover, and Ward made a great tight-window throw, but the Titans targeted the Pats LB in coverage on layered concepts asking him to sift through multiple threats as a zone-dropper. Spillane is going to see that every week with offenses targeting the middle of the field rather than going after the Pats CBs.
- LB Marte Mapu played a season-high 20 snaps on defense, getting some run in garbage time. Mapu had a few quality reps. He took away a seam-splitter in a deep zone drop, had a coverage stop on fourth down, and smothered a check-down for a one-yard gain. However, Mapu also allowed a 10-yard angle route into tight coverage. Overall, there was more good than bad from Mapu, who was targeted seven times in just 18 coverage snaps.
- LB Christian Elliss logged a pressure as an interior blitzer and had a quiet day in coverage (two catches, 13 yards). You'd just like to see more deception from the Pats interior blitzes to either fool the pass protection or get more favorable back-on-backer opportunities.
- NT Khyiris Tonga had a rare loss in the run game, overpursuing outside zone as the backside A-Gap player andopening a cutback lane on an 8-yard run. However, Tonga also logged a run stuff on outside zone by defeating a double-team and dented the pocket to open up Williams for his sack. DT Cory Durden also had a nice run stuff where he pressed the blocker into the backfield instantly off the snap. Durden's power shows up on film.
- DE Keion White is a talented interior pass-rusher but he's not able to make the same impact rushing over the tackles. White had a run stuff playing with good power into the line of scrimmage, but his stiffness limits his ability to corner the edge or transition through rush moves.
- QB Pressures: Chaisson (4, two sacks), Williams (sack, hurry), Landry (sack, hurry), Barmore (two hurries), Farmer (hurry), Elliss (QB hit). Run stuffs: one each (Ponder, Dugger, White, Chaisson, Durden, Williams, Mapu, Jones, Tonga).
- Coverage: Spillane (5/5/54 yards), Woodson (3/2/50 yards/TD), Davis III (4/3/35 yards), Mapu (7/6/38 yards/PBU), Gonzalez (4/3/24 yards), Dugger (2/1/13 yards), Elliss (2/2/13 yards), Tavai (1/1/11 yards), Landry (1/1/9 yards), Gibbens (1/1/8 yards), Jones (2/0/INT).
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