The Patriots are playoff-bound after completing an impressive fourth-quarter comeback to earn a 28-24 victory over the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday night.
Offensively, New England's performance was inconsistent in the first three quarters. The flashes were there that QB Drake Maye was seeing the field and throwing the ball well, but mounting injuries to the offensive line and two first-half turnovers by Maye put the Patriots in a hole, trailing in the fourth quarter for the second consecutive week. This time, the fourth quarter went the Patriots way in Maye's first-career fourth-quarter comeback and 300-yard passing performance.
The two talking points coming out of Week 15's loss to the Bills were Maye and the offense failing to perform in the clutch, and Buffalo's second-half game plan that slowed the Patriots offense. The Bills turned the tide in the final two quarters by playing 86.7% of Maye's second-half drop-backs in two-high safety shells, preventing the Pats QB from unlocking his terrific deep passing ability (1-of-3, 30 yards, INT on deep passes vs. Bills). Buffalo also played key situations in two-man coverages or match (cover-six) zones that are essentially man-to-man. In the second half, Maye was 5-of-12 for 47 yards with an interception in the loss to the Bills, with failed opportunities in the fourth quarter within one-score to take the lead.
On Sunday night, the ongoing blueprint conversation, or whether or not the Bills "solved" Maye in their Week 15 win at Gillette Stadium, took another turn. The Ravens didn't play as many two-high safety coverages as Buffalo (35.3%), but they play man coverage, as Baltimore's defense typically does. Entering the week, the Ravens were ninth in man coverage rate since their defensive turnaround began in Week 6 (32.8%), where they were second in scoring defense (15.9 PPG) and eighth in expected points added per drop-back.
Baltimore played 14 drop-backs in man coverage and 18 drop-backs with two-high safeties vs. the Patriots. In one of his best performances of his MVP-caliber season, Maye was 9-of-13 for 131 yards and a touchdown vs. man coverage and 8-of-14 for 118 yards and a touchdown vs. two-deep safety coverages. Along with giving his receivers credit for uncovering downfield, Maye seemed more aggressive in challenging downfield windows, perhaps reflecting greater confidence in what he was processing mentally from the Ravens defense compared to the week prior against the Bills.
Maye only attempted two passes behind the line of scrimmage with an average target depth of 10.1 yards, while completing 4-of-5 deep passes for a career-high 111 yards and a touchdown in Week 16. By my charting, Maye had a season-high 16 'plus' plays, easily breaking his previous season-high of 12 (done twice in Weeks 6 and 9). The level of difficulty on his downfield attempts was top-tier, beating deep safeties into tight windows and throwing receivers open vs. tight man coverage, while going 12-of-14 for 139 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter.
With the second-year QB testing some tight downfield windows came some volatility, though, and that's the tight rope that Maye often walks. Although his net-rating in my charting was still his third-best output of the season (16 plus, 7.5 minus), Maye had three turnover-worthy plays, including an interception and strip-sack fumble in scoring territory. This wasn't Maye's cleanest performance, but he made several elite plays, and sometimes the quarterback has to take those risks to elevate a shorthanded offense against a good pass defense.
Here's a review of the Patriots defense and quick-hit film notes from the win over the Ravens After Further Review.
Defense Review: How Did the Patriots Match the Ravens Heavy Personnel Groupings?
As we start to think about the playoffs, styles make fights in the NFL postseason, where the better team often finds itself on the ropes because it gets caught in a tricky matchup.
One thing that made the Ravens an intriguing matchup was that the nickel-heavy Patriots were either going to need to adapt to Baltimore's heavy personnel groupings or try to survive the run game with five defensive backs on the field. The Pats playing in nickel defense, which they use 70.8% of the time (seventh-highest in the NFL), was something ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky first brought up as a potential fatal flaw. In theory, if the Pats stay in three-corner nickel (five DBs), opposing run games might feast.
On Sunday night, the Patriots personnel matching vs. the Ravens was interesting. New England treated Baltimore's 12-personnel grouping (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) like it was a three-receiver package, playing either nickel (11) or dime (two) against those groupings. In 12-personnel, the Ravens only rushed five times for 25 yards and a score, with the Patriots accurately predicting that the Ravens would mostly throw out of their standard two-tight end sets.
When the Ravens put FB Patrick Ricard on the field in their two-back formations, New England played exclusively base defense, with 30 snaps in base and two snaps with only three (heavy) defensive backs, and zero nickel snaps against 21 (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR) or 22-personnel (2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR). Despite putting bigger bodies on the field, the Patriots run defense allowed 134 rushing yards on 25 carries (5.4 YPC) with a 52% success rate against their base defense.
With the playoffs on the horizon, it's good to know how the Patriots will treat certain offensive groupings, and they're at least willing to get out of nickel defense if the opponent goes heavy, which should quell some of the concerns brought up by Orlovsky. Still, they'll need to be better at stopping the run in base defense against teams that utilize multiple tight ends and fullbacks, like the Bills, Steelers, or possibly the Jaguars.
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Ravens
Offense
- Contributing to the Pats O-Line's 44.2% pressure rate were some protection breakdowns against the Ravens stunts and line games. The O-Line had issues passing off both two-man stunts (T/T, T/E) and three-man games, leading to multiple pressures from schemed Ravens rushes. Things like stunts are always something opponents watch for on film, and if the opposing O-Line struggles with them, defenses will pull those levers repeatedly until the Patriots prove they can block them. They'll need to clean it up.
- WR Stefon Diggs was absolutely terrific in his third 100-yard performance in prime time this season. Diggs continues to be a masterful route-runner, catching six passes for 75 yards vs. zone, but also added three catches for 63 yards against man coverage. After the Bills shut down the Pats in man-to-man last week, it was great to see Diggs running away from man–to-man for gains of 33, 21, and nine yards. He beat Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey cleanly on a crosser, while running several savvy routes into zone voids. If the Patriots can get games like that from Diggs in the postseason, they might be looking at a deep playoff run.
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson is on a two-game heater with several dirty runs vs. the Bills, followed by huge plays in big moments vs. the Ravens. Stevenson made excellent cuts on his 21-yard game-winner, recognizing the backside developing to hit the FB lead play, and turned a check down into a 23-yard gain with another smooth cut. Stevenson also had an 11-yard run on a counter-read play to help ice the game and a great blitz pickup on Ravens S Kyle Hamilton. His lone blemishes were a pressure allowed in pass protection (assignment) and an incomplete pass that just missed on a go route while flexed out. Stevenson's ability to elude tackles looks to be back, post-toe injury, and he came through in the clutch.
- WR Mack Hollins had two explosive plays on a 20-yard crosser that got the Patriots game-winning drive started and caught a 20-yard dagger route to move the chains on third down. Maye also seems uber-confident throwing quick games to Hollins, especially outs from under-center, which gives the offense easy layups on early-downs to get into a rhythm. Hollins is a big, QB-friendly target, and you can tell Maye likes throwing to receivers with his body type.
- WR Kyle Williams' ability to create deep separation flashed once again on his 37-yard TD, running by Humphrey and finishing with strong concentration at the catch point. That wasn't an easy catch, by any means, but Williams made it look easy. He also drew a holding call to move the chains on an early third down and caught a 9-yard under route, a pattern that he and Maye haven't always connected on this season.
- WR Kayshon Boutte had a tough whistle in this game. He had a third-down catch wiped out by an offensive pass interference call and then didn't get the call on an obvious defensive pass interference late in the game.
- TE Hunter Henry probably should've had two touchdowns, but he couldn't finish through contact from OLB Kyle Van Noy on a downfield target from Maye. Henry made up for it with some solid underneath work to keep the Pats on schedule in the fourth quarter and caught a 13-yard pass from Maye as an open safety valve in a scramble drill.
- TE Austin Hooper had two key catches with a 26-yard completion on a well-placed back-shoulder seam pass that set up a touchdown and an 8-yard blitz-beater where he made himself available quickly. Hooper hasn't been targeted much with the Pats being three-receiver heavy lately, but he continues to make the most of his opportunities.
- LT Vederian Lowe struggled with the Ravens speed rushers, mainly Dre'Mont Jones, but Van Noy and rookie Mike Green were also tough matchups. Lowe allowed six total pressures and a sack, mostly giving up a short corner to speed off the edge. Lowe is at his best when he's able to stay inside-out by timing up the snap count, but there were a few times he was slow out of his stance, which contributed to some losses, including on Maye's interception. Lowe did have two plus-blocks in the run game, including a nice backside cutoff on a 7-yard run.
- LG Jared Wilson also had some issues with the Ravens big interior rushers, allowing six total pressures, losing mostly to interior stunts and bull rushers. Wilson was involved in two failed stunt pass-offs, while DT Travis Jones's power gave him problems. The rookie also allowed a tackle for loss in the run game when Hamilton blitzed through his outside edge.
- C Garrett Bradbury wasn't credited with any pressures allowed individually, but he was involved in two failed stunt pickups where the Ravens won on the interior. Those appeared to be more on Wilson, but the veteran center can hopefully help the rookie out in the future.
- RG Mike Onwenu had a great frontside reach block that sprung a 7-yard run for the Patriots on their wildcat scheme, and helped fan out the backside rushing lane for Stevenson on his game-winner. Onwenu was involved in one of the failed stunt schemes, but didn't allow any pressure in 1-on-1 pass sets.
- RT Morgan Moses gutted through a knee injury that clearly limited him, allowing pressure to Van Noy on Maye's interception and two other hurries. Again, it appeared that both tackles were late off the ball on the interception, so something might've been up there with the cadence. Moses deserves credit for playing through an injury, as his team didn't have very many other options with only Lowe, Moses, and OT Thuyer Munford (also banged up with a knee injury) active.
- OT Thayer Munford has done some nice work for the Patriots in their six OL packages and spot duty at right tackle. Munford allowed one pressure on a play-action drop-back in 15 pass-blocking snaps and had two standout run blocks on gains of seven and six yards. Given the NFL's tackle depth issues, it's a little crazy that Munford was just sitting on the Browns practice squad until the Patriots signed him in November.
- QB Pressures (44.2% pressure rate): Lowe (sack, hit, four hurries), Wilson (hit, five hurries), Moses (hit, two hurries), Stevenson (hit), Munford (hit).
Defense/Special Teams
- On the failed fake punt attempt, you gotta think the players on the field should've checked out of the fake. The Ravens were in "punt safe," meaning they weren't rushing the punt while putting two players at the second level of their punt return front, signaling they had a feeling something was coming. If it's an all-out rush (right image), Westover likely sneaks out for a successful fake, but Baltimore had it sniffed out likely because the Patriots were lined up in a different formation themselves, which might've tipped their hand – the play was doomed from the start.
- Due to the Ravens rushing threats, the Patriots played most of the game in a single-high defensive structure (54.7%) with 16-of-22 drop-backs in post-safety coverages (72.7%), leaving top corners Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III on islands for most of the night. Although they gave up some plays, which we'll get to, Gonzalez (pass breakup) and Davis (screen TFL) both made key plays in the fourth quarter. Davis's tackle for loss against a perimeter screen, in particular, put the Ravens in a 2nd-and-15 with the next play being Flowers' fumble on Baltimore's game-winning drive attempt. Davis's willingness to play the run and screen-game effectively has been huge lately, as he produced a late third-down stop on a screen vs. the Bills as well.
- Gonzalez's inconsistencies could be scheme-related, or it could be that he just hasn't been right since the hamstring injury over the summer. On Sunday night, Gonzalez allowed completions of 18 (3rd down), 14, 14, nine, and six (3rd down) yards for a team-high 61 yards allowed in coverage. Ravens WR Zay Flowers beat him on an extended man coverage drop-back for 18 yards, which is a tough cover, but he also allowed a 6-yard out to Flowers in the slot to move the chains on third down. In zone, you'd like to see Gonzo get his eyes to the frontside crosser while playing the flat in cover two against a play-action drop-back. If he's a split second quicker finding that route off the play-action fake, he has a chance to pick that pass off. Plus, he was on the scene for two of Henry's explosive runs, including Henry's first TD. I'm not expecting Gonzalez to blow up pulling guards, but holding up some runs would be nice.
- CB Carlton Davis III allowed catches of 19, 16 (3rd down), and two 8-yard completions, including another one on third down. As mentioned, his screen TFL was a big play late in the game, but you would've liked to have seen Davis be a little tighter at the sticks on a third-down conversion to WR DeAndre Hopkins at the 8:03 mark of the fourth quarter. Overall, Davis competed in the run/screen game and managed the completions he allowed.
- NCB Marcus Jones played a season-low 19 snaps. He did carry a questionable designation into the game due to a knee injury, but my guess is that was more related to the Ravens only playing nine snaps with three wide receivers on the field and the Pats tying a season-high with 30 snaps in base defense – it was a big personnel kind of game. Jones did give up a third-down conversion to Hopkins, playing the curl/flat spot to the quarters side of cover six.
- LB Jack Gibbens played every defensive snap for the second consecutive game (54), with the Patriots removing him from three special teams units to lighten his workload (seven STs snaps). Gibbens was up and down, logging three run stuffs, a nice contain of Lamar from his short zone to force a short scramble, and a coverage stop on third down. However, Gibbens was also in the mix on all three explosive runs by Henry and missed two run tackles leading to 21 yards after contact.
- DT Christian Barmore still flashes every week when he's not being double-teamed, with the Ravens doubling him on 50% of his pass rushes (eight times total). Barmore is also seeing doubles or down blocks in the run game. When he has 1-on-1 opportunities, like he did on his QB hit on third down, Barmore is winning, beating LG Andrew Vorhees clean with his double-swipe move from the three-technique spot. He also caused a run TFL by getting into the backfield on the frontside of a zone run, forcing a cutback into Chaisson. As long as he keeps winning when he has chances to rush 1-on-1, Barmore is good in my book, with running mate Milton Williams' return on the horizon to free up Barmore.
- EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson beat a false puller on a play-action fake for a pressure, stuffed a run as the backside contain player for a TFL (Barmore play referenced), and had the game-sealing forced fumble, which is excellent hustle in pursuit to chase down the ball from the pass rush.
- Along with Chaisson, the last two weeks for EDGE Harold Landry III have been more about containing QBs in the pocket than getting pressure, with Jackson and Bills QB Josh Allen. Landry closed the pocket with one good wrap rush that kept Lamar in the pocket on an incompletion but didn't log any disruptions (pressures or run stuffs). We all know that Landry is playing through his knee injury, and we'll see what it looks like against more stationary pocket passers, but they're just not getting much from him right now.
- LB Jahlani Tavai played a season-high 30 snaps with the Patriots majoring in base defense, split almost evenly between the edge (15) and off-ball LB (13). Tavai created a tackle for loss with a nice play on a read-option design that stalled a Ravens drive in the red zone but was on the scene for an 18-yard completion to TE Charlie Kolar on a delayed release. Tavai was in on four run tackles with a stuff, giving the Pats a sturdier option in the early-down base defense.
- DT Cory Durden continues to give the Patriots solid snaps on the interior and will be really useful as a rotational player when Williams and Tonga are healthy. Durden had two bull-rush pressures and a pair of run stuffs, including stopping a counter-read play by beating a down block, which was a key stop late in a 24-21 deficit.
- NT Khyiris Tonga was in on three run tackles with a stuff and had a bull-rush pressure before leaving the game in the second quarter due to a foot injury. The Pats are thin at nose tackle, with few big bodies behind Tonga, who has caught the injury bug lately. He was greeting teammates with a smile outside the locker room after the game. Hopefully, that means it's nothing serious.
- Other front seven notes: EDGE Elijah Ponder lost an edge on a 23-yard run. EDGE Anfernee Jennings closed the pocket nicely on his sack. DT Eric Gregory had a nice win on the center to get some backfield penetration on Henry's fumble. LB Christian Elliss was in on four run tackles, but had a costly face mask penalty.
- S Jaylinn Hawkins had a huge forced fumble on Henry that stemmed the early tide, logged a run stuff on the perimeter, and got home for a pressure on a blitz. There wasn't much downfield passing for Baltimore in this one, so Hawkins wasn't targeted in coverage.
- S Craig Woodson recovered a fumble, logged a pressure on a blitz, and was in on two run tackles. However, he also allowed an 18-yard catch to TE Mark Andrews, and the end-around touchdown by Flowers was to his side of the field in a split-safety structure, which usually means the deep safety is responsible for filling the alley on a perimeter run. Andrews ran a savvy route to work open on his 18-yarder when Lamar extended the play, making it a tough cover for Woodson.
- QB Pressures (22.7% pressure rate): Jennings (sack), Durden (2), Barmore (QB hit), Chaisson (QB hit), Elliss (QB hit), one each (Tonga, Woodson, Gibbens). Run Stops: Gibbens (3), Durden (2), one each (Ponder, Gonzalez, Woodson, Elliss, Chaisson, Tonga, Hawkins, Davis).
- Coverage: Gonzalez (7/5/61 yards/PBU), Davis (7/5/46 yards), Woodson (1/1/18 yards), Tavai (1/1/18 yards), Jones (1/1/8 yards), Mapu (1/1/7 yards), Pettus (1/1/5 yards), Gibbens (1/1/3 yards).
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
