The Patriots are on to the divisional round thanks to a terrific defensive performance that led to a 16-3 Wild Card victory over the Chargers on Sunday night at Gillette Stadium.
âOn Sunday night, New England's defense drove the bus to a win. However, when you get into defensive battles like this one the outcome is usually decided by which play-caller/quarterback duo has more answers than the other. QB Drake Maye and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had more answers than their counterparts when the game was up for grabs, and that's why they're advancing with a win over LA.
From this perspective, McDaniels vs. Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter was as good as it gets from two elite schemers. Minter won several rounds with timely bracket calls on third down, mostly keying on Patriots WR Stefon Diggs, and by breaking tendencies to play a 30% man coverage rate (second-highest rate by LA this season). Entering the postseason, Patriots QB Drake Maye was the top-ranked passer in EPA per drop-back against zone coverage. However, the second-year QB was slightly worse against man-to-man, adding +0.14 EPA per drop-back when teams manned up New England's receivers (eighth-best in the NFL).
Minter knew that LA couldn't sit in zone coverage all night against Maye and the Pats QB showed him why by going 16-of-22 for 261 yards and a touchdown when the Chargers played zone (108.3 passer rating). When LA played man, Maye was just 1-for-7 for seven yards with three sacks and two fumbles. The Pats will need better answers for man coverage, but the Chargers deserve credit for sprinkling in more man coverage than usual.
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For example, the Chargers play man coverage on the third down above while scheming up a pass rush. LA blitzes an off-ball linebacker and LB Troy Dye drops into the slant window with Maye looking to throw to Diggs to his right. With the pass-rush scheme creating 1-on-1 matchups, and Dye's coverage drop taking away Diggs in the first slant window, Chargers pass-rusher Tuli Tuipulotu wins inside to apply the initial pressure and Maye is eventually strip-sacked.â
Due to the Chargers effective man coverage schemes, McDaniels got Los Angeles into favorable zone structures by putting heavy personnel on the field. When the Patriots went heavy, LA matched those personnel groupings with base defense, with the Chargers playing 34.4% of their defensive snaps in base (second-highest in a game by LA this season). Maye went 7-of-8 for 105 passing yards and added +0.51 EPA per play vs. the Chargers base defense, while putting the game away with a 28-yard touchdown pass to TE Hunter Henry.
With the Chargers holding the Patriots to 16 points, LA's defense did its part. However, Maye still generated 334 total yards (268 passing, 66 rushing) while producing a 68.9 total QBR and +0.09 EPA per drop-back. In my charting, Maye had 12 plus plays to eight minus plays. He had three turnover-worthy plays, and he usually makes that throw to Hooper for a touchdown in his sleep, as he had some bouts of inaccuracy (also missed high to Henry and wide to Stevenson). Still, Maye made several elite plays, including a perfect dime on a 28-yard TD, a 42-yard cross-field dart to Kayshon Boutte, and a 37-yard scramble to get the Pats into field goal range before halftime. Maye has been much better, but a mixed bag is far from a disaster in his first-career playoff game.â
Ultimately, the Patriots won the coaching matchup on both sides of the ball and got enough winning plays from their quarterback, which is a good formula for postseason success. Offensively, there is a lot to clean up in the turnover department and along the offensive line (35.9% pressure rate, second-level run blocking). But there were more opportunities in the passing game than it felt watching live, with the Pats pass-catchers getting open often enough, and McDaniels winning schematically in some key spots against Minter. Now, let's give the defense its flowers for its performance on Sunday night.
Here is a breakdown of the defense and quick-hit film notes from the Patriots Wild Card win over the Chargers, After Further Review.
Defense Review: How the Patriots Defense Flummoxed Chargers QB Justin Herbert
âAfter the Patriots defense's dominant performance in Sunday night's win, the money quote following the game came from Chargers players themselves via captain Robert Spillane.
â"They had no clue what we were doing. And they came up and said: 'We had no clue what you guys were in all game,'" said Spillane. "Zak [Kuhr] has been great all year. He keeps the dial spinning. He keeps offenses guessing."
âWell, after reviewing the film, I can confirm that Chargers star QB Justin Herbert looked out of sorts against the Patriots defense on Sunday night. Herbert was under pressure, and the coverage was making him earn it, but the Chargers QB also didn't see the field well. Looking at it from an LA perspective, there were 4-5 times where it appeared that Herbert had options downfield that he either skipped or checked it down. He was clearly confused by the Patriots coverage disguises and sped up behind a shaky offensive line.
For example, the Patriots most-used coverage was cover-three, where they'd start in a two-high safety shell and then rotate (buzz) a defender down into the short zone distribution. Above, rookie S Craig Woodson buzzes down while S Jaylinn Hawkisn rotates to the post, creating a three-deep zone. The Chargers call the "sail" concept, with rookie WR Tre Harris clearing out the sideline for WR Ladd McConkey to fill in on the corner route. Herbert feels the interior blitz and backside collapsing the pocket, and bails quickly to the check-down for no gain. If he holds his water a beat longer, McConkey (right slot) uncovers for a big play downfield.â
The Patriots kept the pressure and coverage dial spinning all night, and the Chargers offense had very few answers. A few other levers New England pulled were third-down disguises, cover-zero blitzes, and an uptick in dime personnel usage. The Pats played 11 snaps in dime defense (six defensive backs), their second-most in a game this season. Adding an extra defensive back provides more flexibility in the backend to blitz DBs or have more athletic coverage players, such as S Dell Pettus, handle tough coverage roles.
Starting with the cover zero blitzes, Kuhr was aggressive early and often with his blitz calls, dialing up cover zero on a 2nd-and-12 in the first quarter. The zero blitzes took down LA's protections, with LB Robert Spillane coming through the overloaded right side unblocked on two separate occasions, including one on the goal-line stop on fourth down. Typically, offenses are checking into some cover-zero beater pre-snap to handle all-out pressure, but Los Angeles didn't seem prepared to handle New England's blitzes.
The Patriots then went into their bag of disguises to confuse Herbert by spinning into zone coverage after showing man-to-man before the snap. Above, the Pats appear to be in man coverage with their corners square to the line of scrimmage over the Chargers eligible receivers. When LA shifts to Herbert's right, the Pats even match the shift like they would if it were man. After the snap, they fall into cover two, and a confused Herbert goes through his progressions before trying an off-script heave that falls incomplete.
Lastly, New England's five and six-man rushes were extremely effective, with the Patriots using stunt schemes to get pass rushers free. In this example, the Pats are in dime defense, allowing Woodson to add into the rush with Pettus as an extra man coverage defender. The Pats run a three-man game over the left side with single-high man coverage in the backend and LB Anfernee Jennings comes free in the pass rush to close the pocket for a big third-down sack.
Between their pass-rush schemes and disguised coverages, Herbert and the Chargers offense had trouble deciphering the Patriots defense. New England has been live-repping disguised coverages for weeks, gearing up for the postseason, with it being an area of emphasis for Kuhr, who believes that you can't beat playoff-caliber quarterbacks by tipping your hand pre-snap. On Sunday night, the Pats mastered the disguise, and it won them a playoff game.â
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Chargers
Offense
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson continued his streak of impressive performances with a team-high 128 scrimmage yards while leading the Patriots with 75 receiving yards. Stevenson getting loose for check-down gains of 48, 17 (third down), and 10 yards were huge. He also broke through the line of scrimmage on a 13-yard run (outside zone weak) and had a 5-yard run to move the chains on 3rd-and-1. Stevenson continues to be one of the Patriots best offensive players.
- TE Hunter Henry made two high-leverage catches on his 28-yard touchdown and a 19-yard completion to move the chains on a 3rd-and-13. Henry's 19-yarder, where he found the soft spot against a cover-two zone on the Pats spot-dagger concept, was a sneaky important play in the game with New England scrimmaging from their own 12. After hitting an explosive on the next play, Henry's catch sparked a field goal drive that made it 9-3. He did have a drop and was on the scene for a stuffed run, but Henry was nails for Maye in some key spots in the second half.
- WR Stefon Diggs saw extra attention throughout the game with the Chargers bracketing him with safety rotations, robber coverages, or dropping defenders off the line of scrimmage. This was a full gamut of WR1 attention by LA against Diggs, which is a good sign that he's dictating coverage to that degree â that's partially why he's here. Diggs did catch two balls, uncovering on the juke series in HOSS for a 9-yard catch, and the extra attention he drew opened up opportunities for Henry, Boutte, and others.
- WR Kayshon Boutte took advantage of the extra attention going Diggs' way to catch all four of his targets for 66 yards, including a 42-yard catch when the Chargers doubled Diggs. We knew Boutte would have some opportunities on the outside against LA's coverage schemes and his two chunk plays were enough. On his 42-yard catch, Boutte settled into the cover two and did well to work back toward the ball on a long cross-field throw by Maye. If he waits on it, the corner might've jumped in front of Boutte to make a play on the ball â good stuff.
- Rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson showed his growth on a critical blitz pickup that kept Maye alive in the pocket on Henry's TD. The Chargers blitzed LB Daiyan Henley on the play-action pass and Henderson chopped down Henley in the A-Gap, saving the play that produced the only touchdown in the game. Henderson also closed out the game with a 15-yard run. Although he hasn't broken a big one in a few weeks, Henderson is getting better at the little things.
- Other skill player notes: WR Kyle Williams ran a nice stop route to convert a fourth down and also cleared out the sideline for Henry on his touchdown. TE Austin Hooper had a nice combo block on Stevenson's 3rd-and-1 conversion and was wide-open against a cover zero blitz for a touchdown, but Maye missed him. WR Efton Chism III did well to settle in the zone void on his 20-yard catch and saved the double pass from a negative play, he just missed the throw. You knew something was up when Chism lined up out wide on the trick play.
- LT Will Campbell struggled in his first-career playoff game against a good group of Chargers pass-rushers. Campbell had the most trouble with long-striding DE Odafe Oweh, who cornered Campbell's edge with a cross-chop and rip move that created pressure (one strip-sack). Campbell also had some issues anchoring vs. power rushes by EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu. The Oweh matchup was a tough one, as his long strides challenge the edge quickly, and he also has great length to establish first meaningful contact to shorten Campbell's corner.
- LG Jared Wilson also had some issues with big DT Teair Tart and Tuipulotu when he reduced inside in passing situations. Tart powered through Wilson's outside edge on a slanting rush for a sack and Maye would've had a chance to throw to Boutte over the top had Wilson and C Garrett Bradbury picked up an interior stunt, where Tuipulotu came free after looping inside DT De'Shawn Hand's pick. It was Wilson's first live action after a two-game absence, but the Chargers defensive front got the better of both rookies on the left side.
â- C Garrett Bradbury was the other half of the blocking breakdown on Tuipulotu's stunt sack and was on the scene for a run stuff. In my charting, we split stunts between the two linemen involved because it's on both of them to communicate and pass off the movement properly. Besides that, Bradbury was clean in pass protection.
- RG Mike Onwenu was on the scene for 2.5 run stuffs, including a 2-yard tackle for loss late in the fourth quarter, and allowed a hurry on a stunt scheme. Onwenu had been on a heater lately, but the Pats struggled as a whole to get the backs on the second and third levels. Although the initial push was mostly solid, there weren't enough blockers getting downfield to spring ball carriers for explosives in the run game.
- RT Morgan Moses was the Patriots best blocker with a clean sheet in pass protection and a standout run block to seal the edge on outside zone weak for a 6-yard gain. Moses went against future Hall of Famer Khalil Mack and shut out Mack in 17 matchups â impressive stuff.â
- QB Pressures (35.9% pressure rate): Wilson (1.5 sacks, four hurries), Campbell (sack, four hurries), Bradbury (half-sack), Onwenu (hurry), Henderson (hurry).
Defense
- Although we aren't trying to take away from the Patriots defense's performance, Pro Football Focus's pressure stats were generous this week. My numbers might be a bit lower than PFF's. It was still a great performance by the pass rush, which generated a 36.4% pressure rate per NextGen (PFF had it at 56.8%), but I didn't see 37 individual pressures by New England. Again, not trying to take away anything. The ineffectiveness of their standard four-man rushes, which generated just an 18.2% pressure rate, is something worth mentioning.
- LB Robert Spillane returned from a four-game absence and was immediately impactful as both a disruptive defender and on-field communicator. It doesn't feel like a coincidence that the Pats defense had its best performance in terms of playing assignment sound with their captain wearing the green dot again. Spillane's pre-snap communication and ability to run the defense on the field are easy to see when you watch the film. He also logged two hurries as a blitzer, was on the scene for two stuffed runs, and broke up a pass popping out of the rush to fall underneath a slant. Spillane looked healthy and primed to aid a deep playoff run.
- DT Milton Williams had two dominant reps to produce sacks with a bull rush that had LG Zion Johnson on skates and a slap-swim rush to beat C Bradley Bozeman to put an exclamation point on the win. Williams also created pressure for others by setting picks on New England's stunt schemes. Like Spillane, Williams' return has provided a huge boost for the Patriots defense. He has elite play speed and a pass-rush gear that is just different on film.
- EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson had three total pressures and two sacks, showing off a great motor to finish off Herbert multiple times. Chaisson's strip sack was a relentless rush to get to Herbert and punch the ball out, while he contributed on another strip-sack where his inside rush opened a lane for Jones to close the pocket. Chaisson also had a sturdy edge set for a run stuff but did lose contain with a spin move that led to a 10-yard completion. Overall, he played his role well, converting interior and blitz pressures into sacks.â
- DT Christian Barmore logged clean wins with a double swipe and inside swim move, with the latter coming while rushing outside the tackle, which is a wrinkle the Pats used more this week to get Barmore and Williams away from double teams. Barmore also had two run stuffs and was a handful to single block in the run game. You can tell he's playing with more freedom now that his wingman (Williams) is back.â
- EDGE Anfernee Jennings closed the pocket almost instantly with a wicked wrap on a three-man game, looping inside and through the middle of the pocket for a sack. Jennings also took one for the team to create a 2-on-1 for CB Carlton Davis III on Davis's blitz pressure. Jennings does a lot of the dirty work and is a downhill missile when he gets free in the pass rush.
- DT Cory Durden had his hand in three pressures with some nice work to dent the pocket, hurrying Herbert with power moves twice and logging a QB hit by mirroring the Chargers QB in the pocket. Durden plays with good power at the point of attack in the pass rush.
- LB Christian Elliss was active in this one, with his lone blemish being a 15-yard face mask penalty when he got too high on a tackle attempt. Elliss was an effective blitzer with three total pressures, logged two run stuffs, and did some good work spying Herbert. There's a good play speed to his game.
- LB Jack Gibbens had a team-high three run stuffs, splitting time with Elliss next to Spillane. Gibbens covered a lot of ground to run down a toss for a 1-yard gain and had some good run reps sorting through the trash in the box. Elliss was used more as a blitzer, while Gibbens was used more in run situations, which makes sense given their skill sets.â
- NCB Marcus Jones battled with Chargers WR Ladd McConkey on 20 routes, holding McConkey to one catch for 20 yards on two targets. Herbert missed his explosive slot receiver some, but Jones battled, and his late pass breakup at the catch point on McConkey's deep target was terrific. Jones also logged a sack and a hurry as a blitzer, with the Pats sending pressure off the edges throughout the game â another great game from Jones.
- CB Christian Gonzalez was in full control of his matchup with Chargers WR Quintin Johnston before exiting the game with a head injury. Gonzalez ran a stop route for Johnston that he nearly picked, covered crossers well throughout, and defended multiple off-script vertical shots that fell incomplete. Hopefully, Gonzalez can clear concussion protocol by next Sunday because his ability to operate on an island was a huge part of this game plan.
- CB Carlton Davis III allowed a 14-yard completion on a curl that he nearly picked and was on the wrong end of a makeup call when the refs picked up a possible DPI flag on Gonzalez, resulting in a 22-yard penalty. Besides the tough whistle, Davis showed well in this one.
- CB Charles Woods continued to look like he belongs in his 21 coverage snaps, allowing just one catch for eight yards when the Pats played cover zero (all-out blitz). Woods had an impressive coverage rep covering Johnston on a backside vertical, which deterred Herbert from throwing over the top to his best deep threat against single coverage. Woods might be forced into a starting role if Gonzalez can't clear concussion protocol.
- S Craig Woodson was extremely active early in this game with a tackle for loss against the run and good coverage stop to shut down a perimeter screen. Woodson's play speed was noticeable on film and he continues to limit damage by tackling well in the open field. S Jaylinn Hawkins had a quieter day, mostly handling deep coverage roles, but Hawkins did get into the pass-rush mix with a pressure on a blitz.
- EDGE Harold Landry III returned after a two-week rest and still wasn't overly impactful as he eases back into game action coming off a knee injury. Landry didn't register a pressure in 16 pass-rush snaps and was quiet against the run as well. I'm sure there are a bunch of little things that Landry does well, like chasing down Vidal when he scooped up Herbert's fumble, and his familiarity with the scheme is important, but there just weren't very many "splash" plays from the veteran.
- QB Pressures (36.4% pressure rate): Chaisson (two sacks, hurry), Williams (two sacks, hurry), Jennings (sack, hurry), Jones (sack, hurry), Barmore (three), Elliss (three), Durden (two), Spillane (two), one each (Davis, Hawkins, Taylor). Run stops: Gibbens (3), Barmore (2), Elliss (2), one each (Woodson, Chaisson, Spillane, Davis).â
Coverage: Spillane (4/4/32 yards), Jones (6/4/31 yards/PBU), Davis (4/3/31 yards/DPI), Woodson (5/2/16 yards), Elliss (2/2/15 yards), Pettus (1/1/11 yards), Ponder (1/1/10 yards), Woods (1/1/8 yards), Jennings (1/1/5 yards), Gonzalez (4/0/0/2 PBUs).
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