The Patriots are headed back to the Super Bowl led by three straight terrific defensive performances, culminating in a 10-7 victory over the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.
As much as we should wax poetic about the defense, the offense is a different story. To complete this incredible playoff run with a Super Bowl win it must find a rhythm we haven't seen in three playoff games. We hate to be the Debbie Downer while all of Patriots nation is celebrating the franchise's 12th AFC title, but New England's 18.0 PPG in the playoffs is the fewest by any team to make the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams.
Obviously, the stats don't mean much because they won the games. The Pats defense is on the best playoff run we've seen since the 2000 Ravens, allowing just 26 points through their three wins. Still, 10 points won't be enough against the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX. If they want to finish this thing, the Patriots offense needs to regain its form in what has been a crazy role reversal for a team that was carried by its offense all season long.
Starting at the top with QB Drake Maye and OC Josh McDaniels, it just hasn't been a good postseason for the Patriots offense. To be fair, they played the second, sixth, and eighth-ranked defenses in EPA during this run (and the top-ranked defense in Seattle is next). Plus, the Pats have played some sloppy weather games, both in their first two playoff games at Gillette Stadium and in the second half of Sunday's win in Denver, which was heavily impacted by snow and wind. From the end of the third quarter to the end of the game, it became a game of survival, with the defense leading the way.
Still, we have to discuss what the film shows about the Patriots performance on offense vs. the Broncos. As always, it's never one thing. At times, New England ran some plays into bad looks. There were also drop-backs impacted by pressure and Maye simply didn't throw the ball well. By my charting, Maye only had two 'plus' throws in this game, both to WR Mack Hollins: a 20-yard deep dig and a 31-yard flea-flicker. His other pluses were runs of 28, 16, 13, seven (naked bootleg), and his 6-yard TD run on a designed QB draw. However, he also had 10 minus plays, including five throws to open receivers where accuracy was an issue.
Denver also won some drop-backs by changing up their situational coverage tendencies. The Patriots run a quick-game concept on 3rd-and-5 here. To his right, Maye has a curl-flat combination where WR Stefon Diggs' route should create a rub on the linebacker covering TE Hunter Henry if it's man coverage. On his left, Maye has double slants. Typically, the Broncos play man coverage in this situation but they zone off the backside here and Maye throws to the covered flat. Although he would've needed to move the MLB (No. 49), he's two-on-two to the slant side, which might've been the better option on this play.
There were also instances where protection breakdowns led to missed opportunities. Above, the Pats get what they want when RB Rhamondre Stevenson runs a backside vertical route with the edge dropping out in coverage (Bonitto) on a zero blitz. However, LT Will Campbell opens to Bonitto, his initial man, and LG Jared Wilson is scanning for the blitzing linebacker, leaving DT Malcolm Roach unblocked. If the Pats distribute this correctly up front, we have seen Maye drop the ball in the bucket to Stevenson plenty of times this season.
As head coach Mike Vrabel says, it's better to learn while winning rather than learning the hard way in a loss. Although it's difficult to do this late in the season, the Patriots need to find a rhythm to their passing game again in time for the Super Bowl. The defenses they've played deserve credit, and the weather hasn't lent itself to much offense, but there are plays on film that Maye and company made all season that they're missing during this playoff run. Luckily, the defense has been dominant enough to learn from wins rather than losses.
Here is a review of the Patriots defense and quick-hit film notes from Sunday's victory over the Broncos in Denver to advance to Super Bowl LX.
Defense Review: Patriots Dominate Line of Scrimmage and in Man Coverage vs. Broncos
There are two main takeaways from reviewing the film of the Patriots defense, which once again dominated the line of scrimmage on Sunday.
New England produced a 35.1% pressure rate and held the Broncos to 63 rushing yards on 20 called run plays (3.2 average). This time, it can no longer be held against them that they were facing bad offensive lines in the Chargers and Texans. Denver came into the game ranked fourth in O-Line impact score (PFN), eighth in pass-blocking win rate, and fourth in run-blocking win rate. The Broncos have two first-team All-Pros on their line (LT Garrett Bolles, RG Quinn Meinerz) and got their starting center back on Sunday (Luke Wattenberg). Despite all the hype for the Broncos O-Line, it was the Patriots defensive line that controlled the game, forcing backup QB Jarrett Stidham to drop back 37 times without a threatening rushing attack.
During the offseason, the Patriots built this defense to rely on its defensive tackle tandem and cover corners in the backend, adding standout DT Milton Williams and CB Carlton Davis III to an already-existing core of Pro Bowl CB Christian Gonzalez, DT Christian Barmore, and slot CB Marcus Jones. On Sunday, Barmore and Williams combined for six total pressures while New England's man coverages suffocated Denver's receivers. Stidham was just 4-of-14 for 60 yards with two turnovers when he was under pressure, including a fumble at his own 12-yard line to set up the Patriots lone touchdown. The Patriots also played 15 total drop-backs, or 48.6%, in man coverage. On those man-coverage plays, Stidham was just 6-of-15 for 36 passing yards and two turnovers.
Here are a few examples of how the Patriots have been locking down in man coverage this postseason. With the backend in man-free (man with a single-high safety), the Pats rush six defenders and LB Christian Elliss comes free on the interior twist. Elliss' pressure causes Stidham to let go of this ball a beat early while targeting an in-breaking route to WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey with Davis in coverage. Humphrey doesn't get his head turned around quickly enough out of the break, Davis is in good position, and the pass is incomplete.
By relying on the backend to hold up in man coverage, the Patriots blitz rate in the postseason has increased to 40.6% (27.6% in the regular season). New England also knows that opponents will likely block inside-out to account for Barmore and Williams, so they often add rushers off the edges to overload the protection. Above, they're in man-free again while S Jaylinn Hawkins and Elliss blitz off the edge. Elliss is unblocked to the quarterback, Stidham doesn't have an outlet, and the Patriots force a fumble to set up the offense in the red zone.
Heading into the game, it felt like the Patriots had a clear advantage with the Broncos struggling to run the ball without top RB J.K. Dobbins (foot). With Dobbins out, it's not surprising that the Pats defense shut down Denver's run game, while it also wasn't shocking to see the secondary have its way with a depleted receiver core (no Troy Franklin or Pat Bryant for most of the game). There just wasn't much of a threat from the Broncos offense without their QB1, RB1, WR2, and WR3 against a motivated Patriots defense.
Although the Seahawks will be a step up in competition in Santa Clara, it's been cool to see Vrabel and EVP of Player Personnel Eliot Wolf's vision come to life in the playoffs on defense.
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Broncos
Offense
- Although the passing game struggles are the main story, the Patriots traditional run game mostly struggled as well. Stevenson had two 10-plus yard runs, but there wasn't much movement up front, and the Broncos controlled the line of scrimmage on that side of the ball. Statistically, the Pats averaged only 0.7 yards before contact per called run (excluding scrambles). Along with their pass-game struggles, there weren't many open rushing lanes for Stevenson to get rolling on the ground.
- LT Will Campbell did enough to prevent Broncos edge-rusher Nik Bonitto from taking over the game, but his tape was a mixed bag. The missed cut block wasn't pretty but reaction to the rep has been a bit overblown. However, Campbell allowed two other pressures to power (No. 92), was fooled a bit by the Broncos schemed rush on a missed opportunity to Stevenson, and had a false start. The rookie also had multiple plus blocks: stunt pickup, duo block (12-yard run), a 1-on-1 vs. Bonitto to run him around the arc (28-yard scramble), and a nice frontside reach block (11-yard run). As they have all season, the Pats sent chip help Campbell's way on some extended drop-backs. Still, there were some good moments in this film matching Bonitto's speed.
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson played 60 of 64 snaps as the Pats lead-back (only four snaps for rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson). Stevenson had two 10+ runs on duo (12) and outside zone (11). He also grinded out dirty yards on a 3rd-and-3 draw conversion and a 5-yard run in the low red zone. Although the run game was tough sledding, Stevenson's best plays of the day were in pass protection. He saved the flea-flicker by standing up a blitzing linebacker (Singleton) after pitching the ball back to Maye and picked up All-Pro DT Zach Allen on a stunt on Maye's 28-yard scramble – two elite blocks.
- WR Mack Hollins returned to play the second-most snaps by a Pats wideout and had their two biggest pass plays in the game: a 20-yard dig and a 31-yard catch on a flea-flicker. Hollins and Maye have been working those deep in-breakers all season, so it was good to see those back. Hollins' lone miscue was missing a perimeter block on a blown-up screen to Diggs.
- WR Stefon Diggs managed just five catches for 17 yards on Sunday. The Broncos continued to bracket Diggs on third down, with help defenders sitting inside and a defender outside throwing off his option routes (Hufanga near INT). They need a vertical element to his route tree so that defenses can't just inside-out his possession routes.
- The Patriots went after star CB Patrick Surtain twice on vertical routes to WR Kayshon Boutte, and Surtain had great coverage on both attempts, including a PBU. Maye missed two open throws to Boutte that would've helped his stats, missing short on a deep dig and spraying an out to Boutte.
- WR DeMario Douglas saw a rare sideline target in the cover-two honey hole along the sideline. The play was there with a great throw and catch, but Maye was a beat late (moving in the pocket) and Douglas couldn't make a leaping grab. Obviously, that's not his game.
- RT Morgan Moses had two rare losses in pass protection where he got beaten by Broncos EDGE Jonathan Cooper's speed around the corner, leading to a sack in the first half. Cooper's first step challenged Moses a few times early, but the veteran seemed to get it under control. Moses also was on the scene for a run stuff but had a gritty combo block on the Pats 3rd-and-3 draw. Once he got his timing down to match Cooper's speed, Moses settled in.
- C Garrett Bradbury's sack allowed was on an extended drop-back where Maye held the ball too long (hard to put that on the center). Bradbury also had a great frontside reach block on an 11-yard zone run and was clean in pass protection besides the late loss on the sack.
- RG Mike Onwenu allowed a hurry in pass protection on a stunt and was on the scene for two run stuffs. However, Onwenu also had a great backside reach block on an 11-yard run and got two defenders on one block to keep Stevenson alive on a 3rd-and-3 draw. Onwenu was the Patriots most effective run blocker.
- LG Jared Wilson was at the point of attack for several runs that didn't get much push, with Wilson blocking on the move as a puller. He executed his blocks on a 12-yard duo run (nice combo) and an 11-yard zone reach (frontside reach), which were key blocks in two of the Patriots best traditional runs. We also only had Wilson with one hurry allowed in pass protection.
- QB Pressures (37.9%): Campbell (QB hit, two hurries), Moses (sack, hurry), Bradbury (sack), Wilson (hurry), Onwenu (hurry).
Defense/Special Teams
- Although their man schemes were great, the Patriots had a few coverage breakdowns in quarters, with the 52-yarder to WR Marvin Mims coming against a four-deep quarters zone (backside vertical), a 3rd-and-3 conversion in the flat to Humphrey, and a 10-yard completion underneath the zone. Overall, Stidham was 4-of-5 for 69 yards when the Pats were in quarters, a coverage they'll probably want to play against the run-action heavy Seahawks O.
- On the blocked field goal attempt by DT Leonard Taylor III, the Patriots overloaded the left side of the Broncos field goal protection unit with six rushers on that side of the snapper. Taylor and DT Cory Durden were able to 2-on-1 the same blocker, allowing Taylor to get some penetration and jump to get a hand on the football. Just a great effort play by Durden and Taylor.
- DT Milton Williams set the tone with a dominant first-half performance. Williams tallied four total pressures in my charting with a variety of rush moves: power-rip, inside-out crossover, wrap rusher on a stunt, and he blew up the Broncos failed fourth down play when he was left unblocked. The Patriots are headed to the Super Bowl largely because Williams has been worth every penny as their prize free-agent signing and he was able to return from a mid-season ankle injury – Williams has been terrific.
- DT Christian Barmore also made four 'plus' plays, including an outstanding second-down sack before halftime. Barmore beat Broncos All-Pro RG Quinn Meinerz with a nasty swim move on his sack. He also logged a pressure on a play-action drop-back and was highly disruptive to Denver's run game. Most notably, building the wall by pressing a play-side block and backdooring the reaching center to collapse an outside run. Although he didn't register on the stat sheet as often as Williams, the Broncos O-Line had its hands full with Barmore.
- DTs Khyiris Tonga (two stuffs) and Cory Durden (two hurries) continued to give the Patriots quality reps doing the dirty work on the interior D-Line. Tonga put Broncos C Luke Wattenberg on skates to blow up a run play on a three-yard loss. The field conditions weren't great at that point, but Tonga won that rep decisively for a key TFL that pushed the Broncos back before the blocked field goal.
- EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson continued his strong postseason with four total pressures while tying for a team-high with three stuffed runs. Chaisson logged pressures with his bull rush, an inside counter, and a speed-rip move to land a hit on Stidham on Gonzalez's interception. Chaisson also blew up a jet sweep, chased down an outside zone run from the backside, and sniffed out multiple perimeter screens. Chaisson's lone blemish was losing the edge on a zone-read keeper by Stidham (8 yards), but his play recognition and pursuit speed consistently flashed. He was phenomenal.
- EDGE Elijah Ponder won several reps against Broncos All-Pro LT Garrett Bolles. Ponder mostly won with speed, using dip and rip moves to corner the edge against Bolles. He finished the game with three total pressures, including a QB hit on a third-down stop. Ponder also did well to chase down Stidham when he left the pocket on a few occasions – solid work by the rookie.
- EDGE Anfernee Jennings had a great run stuff where he eluded the leading fullback to get penetration in the backfield. He also logged pressure by cornering the edge against McGlinchey and finished strong to get in a hit on Stidham when he powered through Bolles' outside edge. Jennings' run defense, which is his calling card, really stood out.
- LB Christian Elliss was an effective blitzer, with his unblocked pressure coming off the overload side (right) forcing Stidham into panic mode on his sack-fumble. Elliss added on to the rush on two other occasions to apply pressure in New England's man-blitz schemes, which were highly effective. His pursuit speed on his blitzes is very noticeable. The lone blemish for Elliss was giving up a 10-yard completion to RB R.J. Harvey from his short zone on an angle route.
- LB Robert Spillane was having a great game before he appeared to aggravate his ankle injury in the first quarter and didn't return. Spillane's status will be top of mind during Super Bowl week. He logged two run stuffs and had a 'plus' coverage rep in the middle of a cover-two zone before exiting the game.
- LB Jack Gibbens replaced Spillane after the injury, and outside of a missed tackle that led to an 11-yard completion, Gibbens was solid. The Pats linebacker had three coverage stops and a run stuff, showing good awareness as a short zone defender once again. He was in good position coverage-wise on his missed tackle but just slipped off Harvey on the tackle attempt.
- CB Christian Gonzalez got beat over the top as the deep backside defender in quarters, with S Jaylinn Hawkins poaching (eyes to the other side of the formation hunting crossers). That's a tough coverage assignment against a speedy wideout like Mims, but one Gonzalez likely expects to handle. The Pats CB got Mims and Stidham back on his interception, reading the ball flight from an off-man technique, and showed good closing speed to clamp down on a slant to Sutton. The Pro Bowler also got credited for a sack when he forced Stidham out of bounds as a cover-two flat defender.
- CB Carlton Davis III only allowed two catches for five yards on four targets, as there wasn't much action going his way. He did prevent a first-down completion with good coverage on an in-breaker to WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey, held up a perimeter screen for a 1-yard gain, and stopped WR Elijah Moore on a crosser for a third-down stop. Davis's lone miscue was losing contain as a force defender on a 9-yard run when Harvey turned the corner.
- NCB Marcus Jones was targeted a team-high seven times and only allowed 16 yards into his coverage. However, Jones got beat twice on third down, once on a shallow drag by Mims and then playing the underneath zone in quarters on a 3rd-and-3 out to Humphrey. Davis and Jones could've played that one better, but a four-deep, three-under zone on third-and-short is a tough call. Jones got Humphrey back with a PBU by playing through the catch point on a designed rub route against man coverage. Jones did a great job getting back into the play to get the ball out.
- S Craig Woodson continued to flash on film with excellent instincts to zone off the pick-flat play on the fourth down stop, a run stuff coming downhill into the box, a 'plus' zone rep where he took away a shot play design, and a 1-yard stick in the flat playing in coverage. Woodson's play speed and physicality have been great throughout the postseason – the rookie can play.
- S Jaylinn Hawkins appeared to be responsible for Sutton on his touchdown off the bootleg play, with Gonzalez (low) and Hawkins (high) high-lowing that side of the field. Hawkins also missed a pair of tackles that led to 9-yard gains. The Pats will need to clean up their boot coverage against the Seahawks, who run them more than any other offense in the league.
- QB Pressures (35.1%): Williams (4), Chaisson (4), Elliss (sack, 3), Ponder (3), Barmore (sack, hurry), Jennings (2), Durden (2), Tonga (1). Run Stuffs: Chaisson (3), Jennings (3), Tonga (2), Spillane (2), Woodson (1), Gibbens (1).
- Coverage: Gonzalez (5/2/58 yards/INT), Elliss (2/2/22 yards), Jones (7/5/16 yards/PBU), Gibbens (3/2/13 yards), Hawkins (2/2/11 yards), Tavai (1/1/7 yards), Davis (4/2/5 yards/PBU), Woodson (2/1/1 yard/PBU), Chaisson (1/0/0).
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer








































