The Patriots advanced to the AFC Championship Game with a 28-16 win over the Texans at Gillette Stadium on Sunday and New England's defense drove the bus to victory once again.

In their two postseason wins, the Pats defense has allowed just one touchdown drive on 24 opponent possessions, which was a 27-yard scoring drive by Houston off a turnover. The Chargers and Texans, led by star quarterbacks Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud, produced just 3.4 yards per play, a 6.1% explosive play rate, a 36.6% play success rate, -0.42 EPA per play, and turned it over six times. The Patriots defense has scored as many touchdowns as it has allowed and it's why they're headed to the AFC title game in Denver.

After breaking down the film on the Patriots defense all season, it was impossible to see this level of dominance coming. If you told me New England was one win away from the Super Bowl because second-year QB Drake Maye was continuing to play at an MVP level, that would've been believable. Even saying that DT Milton Williams, LB Robert Spillane, and NT Khyiris Tonga returning helped the Pats defense improve for the postseason run would've also been believable. But to flip a switch from above-average to elite? I didn't see it coming, so kudos to the players and coaches.

During the regular season, the Patriots were fourth in scoring defense (18.8 PPG), eighth in total yards (295.2), and 11th in EPA (-0.04). However, detractors would point to playing the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, which is why they finished the year below-average in opponent-adjusted metrics such as DVOA (23rd). The thought was that, against better competition, the Patriots defense's warts might show up more often. However, the opposite has happened so far, as New England's defense has gotten even better in the postseason.

The logical next question is how? How have head coach Mike Vrabel, de facto DC Zak Kuhr, and the Patriots defense turned it up a notch to spearhead two playoff wins? Some players pointed to improved preparation, with hyper-focus on one opponent and motivation from the hype around the Chargers, and especially the Texans, vaunted defenses. As Vrabel said following the win over Houston, they're gelling at the right time.

"They're playing well together. I feel like they're complementing each other, and our turnovers are created by more than one guy. There's some great efforts. But it's somebody tipping a pass or it's somebody that's putting pressure that's usually helping -- or Zak's dialing something up that kind of changes the look. We're taking advantage of our opportunities. And that's what it's going to take in the playoffs, is you've got to take care of the ball and turn it over," Vrabel said.

Schematically, the Patriots rapid improvement on defense starts with early-down aggressiveness, leading to better results on first down. One conversation being had among defensive coaches is how to consistently shut down opponents on first down. With offenses getting so good at sequencing early-down run actions to stay on schedule and generate explosive plays, it's difficult to stop when an offense finds an early-down rhythm. That allows them marry runs and play-action passes to keep defenses guessing. So, defenses are working tirelessly to stop offenses on first down to get them into traditional drop-backs on second and third down, which are more predictable and thus easier to defend.

The Patriots defense ranked just 25th in first-down success rate during the regular season (45.7%). However, they've flipped that script in the playoffs, where they rank third among the 14 playoff teams with a 36.4% play success rate on first down (see chart above). Mainly, they're doing it by playing a higher man coverage rate (35.5%) and blitzing more often (38.9%), attacking the line of scrimmage to stop the run and force incomplete passes to create 2nd-and-long opportunities.

For example, the Patriots play man coverage (cover-one) with a five-man rush here. The five-man rush creates one-on-one matchups across the front for New England's rushers against a shaky Texans O-Line and edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson wins with a rip move on the right tackle. In the backend, the Pats play man-free, or cover-one with a single-high safety. They have tight coverage across the board from Pro Bowl CB Christian Gonzalez, CB Carlton Davis III, and NCB Marcus Jones. Chaisson hits Stroud's arm as he's throwing the ball, causing an incomplete pass, but the coverage is sticky in the backend as well.

Once the Patriots got Houston into second-and-long, they won more with sound structure, while knowing a drop-back pass was probably coming (most offenses pass on 2nd-and-10). Above, the Pats play nearly perfect coverage out of quarters to take away Stroud's receivers. With a pass likely, New England also runs a T/E stunt with Tonga setting a pick for Chaisson to wrap his rush inside to pressure Stroud into what essentially is a throwaway – 3rd-and-10.

With the offense behind the chains, the Patriots can then get into their simulated pressures. Another example of their increased aggressiveness has been upping their cover-zero usage (all-out pressure). In the playoffs, the Pats are calling cover zero on 11.5% of their coverage snaps compared to 3.9% in the regular season. By sending all-out pressure, the Chargers and Texans had to respect the blitz threats on the line of scrimmage.

After showing cover zero, the Patriots also have bluffs where they'll align pre-snap in a cover zero structure and then fall out of it. As you can see here, the six rushers on the line and the coverage shell in the secondary are screaming cover zero at the offense. However, the Patriots fall out of the pressure-look at the snap and into quarters with only a four-man rush. Stroud looks unsure of what he's seeing due to the great disguise and the pass-rush swarms for a sack.

To be objective, the offenses they have faced haven't covered themselves in glory. After losing to the Patriots, the Chargers parted ways with OC Greg Roman and Texans QB C.J. Stroud had six turnover-worthy plays on Sunday. Houston also had some unforced errors, such as a dropped third-down pass on its first possession and a botched goal-line sequence that led to a field goal on its second drive. Then, they went interception, TD (short field), interception, interception, punt, interception, punt in the first half.

During the regular season, the Patriots took a somewhat passive approach to their early-down defense. They played more of a bend-but-don't-break style with soft zone coverages, but that hasn't been the case in the playoffs, where they're leaning on a strong cornerback trio to play more first-down man coverages. The game is now being played on their terms, which is when defenses start racking up turnovers and sacks.

The Patriots defense has carried them with great scheme, play-calling, and execution. They've found a coverage mix that has made two name-brand QBs look flustered. Plus, they're getting contributions from the entire roster with a 48.1% pressure rate, a 36.4% stuffed run rate, and 12 passes defensed (PBUs+INTs) vs. the Texans, all while Maye had his worst statistical game of the season against a terrific Houston defense (season-low in EPA per drop-back). As much love as the potential league MVP deservedly has gotten, the Patriots defense is the headliner through two playoff wins. Now, do it against the Broncos.

Here is an audio breakdown and review of the Patriots offense, plus quick-hit film notes from Sunday's divisional round victory over the Texans to advance to the AFC Championship Game.

Offense Review: Maye and Other Key Youngsters Experiencing Baptism by Fire in the Playoffs

Look, we know many of you hate excuses, but the truth is the Patriots have several first and second-year players experiencing the playoffs for the first time in their NFL careers.

Not only are QB Drake Maye, LT Will Campbell, LG Jared Wilson, RB TreVeyon Henderson, and others new to the NFL's biggest stage, they're also getting a baptism by fire. There's a lot being made about the Patriots easy schedule and that'll only pick up steam if they advance to the Super Bowl with a win over Broncos backup QB Jarrett Stidham next week. However, the Pats offense hasn't faced an easy schedule in these playoffs, as the Texans (second), Chargers (sixth), and Broncos (eighth) all have top-8 defenses by EPA, with some pundits saying the Houston defense New England's young offense just faced is the best in football.

If the advanced metrics aren't your thing, Maye will be the first quarterback in a decade to face three top-five defenses in total yards in each of his three playoff games in a season. No excuses, just facts -- this has been a gauntlet for Maye and the Pats offense in these playoffs.

Due to putting the ball on the ground four times, Maye posted his lowest EPA per drop-back output of the season (-0.27) and his fourth-lowest of his career. In these playoffs, Maye's efficiency has dropped from the top-rated quarterback in EPA (+0.31) to a negative-EPA player (-0.07). His 33.3% play success rate vs. the Texans was also the lowest in a complete game of his career, which doesn't look good on the stat sheet.

In my charting, we also had Maye sharing in the responsibility for three of his four fumbles. The last strip-sack happened in a blink and was in the "no chance" category (Will Anderson's get-off on that play was an insane: 0.41s). But he caused the first strip-sack backed up near his own goal-line and was solely responsible for the punch out on what was a run play to Rhamondre Stevenson (Maye opened right and Stevenson went left). Simply put, he has to do a better job protecting the ball and knowing when the play is dead.

However, I also had Maye for eight 'plus' plays with three high-level touchdown passes, some nice work to manipulate S Jalen Pitre out of the slant window on the 25-yarder to Boutte, and an 8-yard scramble where he broke out of a sack to move the chains on third down. The ball security will get beat to death this week, and understandably so, but Maye made good decisions to keep the ball out of harm's way and saw the field well when he was able to release the ball.

The other positive development was that Maye was under pressure on only 8 of his 33 drop-backs (24.2%). Although the rookie left tackle struggled, the rest of the Pats O-Line only allowed three total pressures against a good front. New England was also able to run the ball well enough in the fourth quarter to close out the game (45 rushing yards on 16 carries), so it wasn't a complete disaster against one of the NFL's best defensive lines. The criticisms about Maye's fumbles and Campbell's struggles are fair, but keep in mind that they're facing elite defenses in their first real taste of playoff football – give it some time.

Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Texans

Offense

- OC Josh McDaniels called the game about how we expected with Maye's deep shots mostly being go balls on the outside rather than longer developing plays. The Pats tried one true shot play on a half-boot, which didn't work (Anderson sack), and there was an early toss play to Henderson that brought S Jalen Pitre to the party with motion (not ideal). Still, there wasn't much else to be done besides the screens, draws, quick games, and quick-drop go balls. I was surprised that the Patriots only attempted one pass out of their jumbo package (6 OL) late in the game. I thought we'd see more of those max protection plays, so that might be one second-guess for McDaniels to help out Campbell with more than just chips.

- WR Kayshon Boutte created 92 total yards on his five targets with a terrific 32-yard TD, a 25-yard slant, an 18-yard slant, and a 17-yard drawn DPI. The DPI doesn't count in the box score as Boutte's yards, but he drew the penalty to move the chains on third down. He seems to love matching up against his college teammate, Derek Stingley Jr., and has now gotten Stingley twice on go balls down the right sideline into the Lighthouse end zone – pretty cool stuff.

- RB Rhamondre Stevenson was rock-solid once again with some playoff-caliber running to grind out his 70 yards on 16 attempts. Stevenson bounced a duo run outside for 20 yards on the Pats first scoring drive but did his best work on dirty runs of eight (outside zone), six (outside zone), nine (inside zone), and nine yards (outside zone) in the fourth quarter. The Pats RB mostly followed RG Mike Onwenu and RT Morgan Moses to chew up the clock. That was some big boy running with the Texans firing downhill and ripping at the ball.

- WR Stefon Diggs made two tough catches on his 7-yard touchdown and a 14-yard hook route to move the chains on a late third down. Diggs' hand strength to snatch a rocket from Maye out of the air on a goal-line slant while being sandwiched between two defenders was impressive and he made a late adjustment to a pass thrown away from the squatting flat corner on his third-down grab. Plus, his 13-yard slant into an opening in Houston's zone set up Douglas's TD.

- WR DeMario Douglas had a big game against the Texans in the 2024 season (six catches, 92 yards, TD) and the Patriots worked the same matchup again this year. The Pats likely knew that the Texans would cover the slot with a safety at times, so they got Douglas 1-on-1 with S Calen Bullock on his touchdown, with Pop beating Bullock on the slant against all-out pressure.

- WR Kyle Williams had some chances to register on the stat sheet but went 0-3. Williams had a step on Texans CB Kamari Lassiter on one of his deep targets, but Maye bent the ball too far into the sideline and Williams was unable to track it. It wasn't perfect ball placement by Maye, but it was catchable, so we put that one more on Williams to track it over his shoulder, even if it would've been a difficult catch.

- RB TreVeyon Henderson was a little inconsistent with his run reads. He seemed indecisive at times and was trying to bounce runs outside rather than hitting open rush lanes. In one instance, he had a possible huge run through the middle, but he bounced to his right when a big play was there, especially with his speed. He also hesitated on one 5-yard run when he had plenty of open space to exploit. Just a little choppy with his reads in this one.

- TEs Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper combined for just two catches for 19 yards. Hooper had a nice delayed release on a bootleg that went for 14 yards and Maye had him on the keeper late in the game if he put more air under the ball (one of two Maye missed throws). But the Texans zone structures mostly took out the areas where Henry likes to operate.

- LT Will Campbell allowed two strip-sacks, four total pressures, and his rusher batted down a pass. We also had Campbell for a half-stuff, and he fell off a backside reach block, where his man made the tackle downfield. Texans pass-rusher Danielle Hunter beat Campbell twice with inside moves (swim). Anderson beat a chip with a stab-rip rush and then beat Campbell on an insane speed/rip rush where he teleported into the backfield. I almost can't even knock Campbell for that one, it was insane. I mean, 0.41 seconds to get off the ball? Come on. Overall, two strip-sacks are two strip-sacks. He needs to be better.

- LG Jared Wilson settled down a bit after a tough first start back from a concussion in the Wild Card round. Wilson allowed two hurries, one each to Sheldon Rankins and Tommy Togiai, who beat him with power. Wilson was also on the scene for two stuffed runs but had standout blocks on a 9-yard screen and an 8-yard zone run, climbing to the second level. Overall, it was a step in the right direction.

- C Garrett Bradbury got swum by NT Naquan Jones for a run TFL and missed a block on a screen that lost yardage. There was space there for Henderson if Bradbury made his block on the screen. Bradbury did make another great 'whirlybird' block where he spins out of a boot-action to get the backside rusher, but Anderson squeaked through to log a sack when there was nothing open downfield. I love a good whirlybird, though.

- RG Mike Onwenu paved the way for the Patriots 45 rushing yards in the fourth quarter. Onwenu had three standout blocks on zone reaches on gains of eight, six, and two yards (first down). He was excellent to close this game out and only allowed one pressure when Rankins beat him with a nice inside-out rush on the interior. As we said with Stevenson, those were some big-boy blocks by Onwenu in the fourth quarter.

- RT Morgan Moses pitched a shutout in 23 matchups split between Hunter (18) and Anderson (5) and also contributed to the fourth-quarter rushing with three standout blocks. The veteran deserves as much credit as anyone on offense for his performance. It was outstanding work against two great rushers.

- OT3 Thayer Munford (+climb), FB Jack Westover (+kickout, +lead), and WR Efton Chism III all had plus run-blocks in the fourth quarter. Chism saw Pitre shooting through the B-Gap and was able to get a piece of him to save a TFL. That was a potential big loss to a two-yard gain and a first down on a 2nd-and-1 run. Good stuff by the rookie.

- QB Pressures (24.2%): Campbell (two sacks, two hurries), Wilson (two hurries), Onwenu (hurry), Moses (clean), Bradbury (clean), Maye (two sacks), scheme (sack).

Defense

- EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson has been the Patriots most impactful defensive player through two playoff games. He has seven total pressures in back-to-back games, registering a QB hit on Stroud to force a pick-six and sacking the Texans QB on another bootleg scheme. The boots to Chaisson's side stand zero chance, while his get off (rip move) challenges tackles' edges consistently and he has been effective as the wrap rusher on stunts. Chaisson has been simply unblockable for two straight weeks and the Pats are now building in calls to take advantage of the former first-rounder's skill set. He's realizing his potential under Vrabel.

- DT Christian Barmore was highly disruptive with three total pressures, a run TFL, and he caused another run stuff with his backfield penetration. Barmore's double swipe/rip move has become his go-to complement to his bull rush, with him and others denting the pocket throughout the game. Barmore's physicality in the trenches is fun to watch.

- DT Milton Williams also contributed to collapsing the interior of the pocket around Stroud with three total pressures and good backfield penetration to reset the line of scrimmage or force ball carriers to bounce to outside gaps. The Pats clearly weren't too concerned with Texans RB Woody Marks beating them to the edge on downhill runs, so they were using different line stunts on early-downs to clog the middle and force the ball outside – Williams was a big part of that.

- NT Khyiris Tonga returned from a three-game absence and was immediately impactful. Tonga was setting excellent picks on stunts all afternoon, leading to a QB hit and a sack. He also split a double-team on a duo run to cause a run stuff. Although he only played 29 snaps in his return, Tonga looked poised for more work next week, but was responsible for a run stuff on one of his two snaps on offense as a lead-blocker.

- DT Cory Durden was rock-solid once again with four total pressures, two by bull rush and one with a swim move to counter the centers' aggressive set to brace for his power. Durden wasn't as consistent holding his gaps in the run game, but he has knock-back power as a bull rusher and enough of a pass-rush toolbox to swim over blockers who try to fight fire with fire.

- EDGE Anfernee Jennings continues to earn playing time as the edge rusher opposite Chaisson, logging a sack, three total pressures, and a pair of run stuffs. Jennings has flashed the last two weeks as a wrap rusher on stunts and will always bring his hard hat to the party as an edge-setter. He complements Chaisson's upfield playing style on the other side.

- LB Robert Spillane had two blitz pressures, a run stuff, and was taking away reads for the backs and quarterback all afternoon. Spillane has a great knack for sitting in dig windows as a zone-dropper, forcing Stroud to check the ball down underneath the coverage rather than hitting those intermediate in-breakers he loves so much. Spillane had a great feel for Stroud's sweet spots in coverage. Deterring those types of throws is an underrated part of his game, but he was beaten by the seam-splitter late in the game in a tough coverage assignment as the Tampa-2 player – Stroud underthrew that one badly.

- CB Christian Gonzalez allowed just one reception over 20 yards despite being targeted a career-high 15 times as the primary boundary corner (sorry, had this wrong in Game Observations. I'm blaming NextGen Stats.) The lone deep completion Gonzo allowed was a 23-yard slot fade to Xavier Hutchinson, who got away with a slight push-off, but Gonzalez was lucky he didn't get flagged for DPI on a deep target vs. Jayden Higgins, so it was a wash. Overall, allowing 7.9 yards per catch at that volume is pretty good. Gonzalez also had a pass breakup and a forced fumble, so it was a busy day for him on Sunday.

- CB Carlton Davis III finally broke through with some ball production, logging two interceptions and two pass breakups. Davis broke up a vertical shot to Higgins and had a really nice quarters rep to recover over the top of the wheel on his first interception. The second one was more of a bad decision to a covered flat receiver by Stroud (great toe-tap, though). However, he also got called for three penalties, including two legit spot-foul DPIs that led to 41 yards of offense.

- NCB Marcus Jones had some fantastic highs but also some lows on this film. Jones was opportunistic on his pick-six and made a terrific pass breakup on 3rd-and-4 in the red zone to force Houston to settle for a field goal. However, he was in coverage for the Texans lone touchdown and appeared to be responsible for the flat on TE Dalton Schultz's 42-yard play, where Schultz got lost in the wash after releasing upfield late and Jones went to stop Stroud from scrambling. Jones also gave up a third-down conversion playing a short zone in quarters.

- S Craig Woodson's play speed continues to flash. His interception was a bit of a gift, but he also logged a pair of PBUs crashing down on underneath routes and a QB hit as a blitzer. Woodson plays fast at multiple levels of the defense and finishes well – intriguing young player. S Jaylinn Hawkins also got in on the blitz party with three total pressures in this one.

- QB Pressures (48.1% pressure rate): Chaisson (sack, 3 hits, 3 hurries), Durden (four), Jennings (sack, two hurries), Williams (three), Barmore (three), Hawkins (three), Tonga (sack, hit), Taylor (two), Ponder (two), Spillane (two), Woodson (one). Run stuffs: Two each (Spillane, Davis, Jennings), one each (Gonzalez, Barmore, Elliss, Chaisson, Gibbens, Tavai, Landry).

- Coverage: Jones (8/4/68 yards/TD/PBU/INT), Gonzalez (15/7/55 yards/PBU), Davis (6/2/25 yards/2 INTs/2 PBUs/2 DPIs), Elliss (3/2/17 yards/PBU), Spillane (3/2/17 yards/PBU), Pettus (1/1/13 yards), Hawkins (1/1/9 yards), Tavai (2/1/8 yards), Woodson (3/0/0 yards/INT/2 PBUs), Woods (1/0/0 yards).

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