The Patriots are 9-2 after a Thursday night win over the Jets and now travel to Cincinnati for a showdown with the battered 3-7 Bengals. New England is undefeated on the road and surging behind Drake Maye, who leads the league in completion percentage and passing yards.
Winners of eight in a row, injuries have started to pile up for the Patriots, with defensive tackle Milton Williams landing on IR this week. But the Pats could be in line to get healthy at a couple of key positions that they've had to work around in recent weeks, including running back.
The Bengals have been explosive at times under Joe Flacco, they piled up nearly 1,400 yards of offense in three games before their bye week, but they're coming off a 12-point, 297-yard outing against Pittsburgh and rank dead last in defensive DVOA, plus they'll be without the NFL's leading receiver, Jamarr Chase, who was suspended one game for a spitting incident against the Steelers last week.
Here are the three things to watch most closely.
1. Pressure Flacco
Flacco stabilized Cincinnati's offense and made them competitive with 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, but pressure is his kryptonite. Against pressure, he has a 31.1 passer rating, no touchdowns, and five interceptions. When his time to throw exceeds 2.5 seconds, his rating drops to 57.0, with two touchdowns and four picks. Against the blitz, it's even worse: 31.0 passer rating and three interceptions.
There's little question that the Patriots defensive front must get after the veteran and force him to get uncomfortable.
Milton Williams' absence is a significant blow but not a death sentence considering the depth includes Christian Barmore (31 pressures). Still, that could mean more blitzing. New England blitzed on 27.3% of snaps vs. the Jets and has hovered around league average (28%) most of the year. With Harold Landry (5.5 sacks) and K'Lavon Chaisson (team-leading 32 pressures) leading the way, getting to Flacco is a main priority.
Players like Cory Durden and rookie Joshua Farmer could see expanded opportunities with Williams out, as could emerging edge rusher Elijah Ponder, who has recorded sacks in each of his last two games.
2. Get Running
The Patriots could get Rhamondre Stevenson back this week and pairing him with the ascending TreVeyon Henderson would be huge. Henderson has stepped up with five touchdowns in three games, including a season-high 19 carries vs. the Jets and five receptions. His development has been critical, but a two-headed attack would give the Patriots balance and durability for the stretch run.
The Bengals run defense is a glaring weakness. They rank 30th or worse in rushing attempts faced, rushing yards allowed, and yards per attempt, and the Jets and Bears combined for over 500 rushing yards against them. This is the perfect matchup for New England to unleash its ground game and keep the offense fresh, while also taking some of the focus off Drake Maye.
3. Ready to Shoot It Out
Cincinnati's defense ranks 32nd in DVOA, 32nd in points allowed, and 32nd in yards allowed. That means Drake Maye, an MVP candidate, should have every opportunity to shine. Maye leads the NFL in completion percentage (71.9%), passing yards (2,836), and air yards per attempt, with 20 passing touchdowns and just five interceptions. He's also added 285 rushing yards and two rushing scores.
The Patriots offense ranks 9th in DVOA, 7th in EPA/play, 7th in points, and 9th in yards. With the potential returns of Stevenson, Kayshon Boutte and Austin Hooper, Maye has the weapons to light up the league's worst defense, if the offensive line keeps him clean like they did against the Jets.
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