The Patriots head to Baltimore for Sunday Night Football, sitting at 11-3, still atop the AFC East despite last week's loss to Buffalo that snapped their 10-game win streak. A win or tie against the Ravens, or a Colts or Texans loss or tie, would clinch a playoff spot for New England. The Ravens, meanwhile, have clawed back from a 1-5 start to reach 7-7, fueled by Lamar Jackson's return and a statement win last week over Cincinnati.
With both teams fighting for postseason positioning and just three games left to play in the regular season, this matchup is loaded with urgency and intrigue.
Here are three things to watch closely.
1. Slow the Run
Ravens RB Derrick Henry delivered 100 rushing yards last week, marking his fifth 100-yard game this season, with a stellar 6.3 yards per attempt over his last three games. After coaching Henry for six seasons in Tennessee, Mike Vrabel needs no introduction to Henry or insight into how hard it can be to stop the monstrous back once he gets rolling.
Meanwhile, after a white-hot start, the Patriots run defense has loosened up, giving up a season-high 168 rushing yards to Buffalo, the fifth-straight game they've allowed 100-plus rushing yards. Earlier this season, they ranked as high as 2nd in run stop win rate, but recent struggles have dropped them to 11th.
With DT Milton Williams still on IR and LB Robert Spillane continuing to deal with a foot injury, New England must find a way to return to their run-stopping form… and they might have to do it with some new players rising to the challenge and leading the way.
2. Finish Strong
The Patriots loss to the Bills was the story of two halves. In the first half, New England put together one of their best 30-minute performances of the year. But the second half was one of their worst. Now, they should need no further lessons on how quickly even a three-score lead can evaporate against an MVP-caliber player. Last week it was Josh Allen, this week it will be Lamar Jackson.
Baltimore is experienced and desperate, and they will be resilient and press until the final whistle.
New England must maintain energy, detail, and execution in all quarters, but especially during the final quarter, aka "winning time." That means crisp tackling, zero missed assignments, and making good decisions on the back end of drives. It's hard to imagine a Patriots win over the Ravens without them playing their best football in the fourth quarter.
3. Drake Bouceback
QB Drake Maye was well-protected by the offensive line last week vs. Buffalo. The Patriots allowed the second-lowest pressure rate of their season, according to Next Gen Stats, but Maye struggled to get into his usual rhythm. His accuracy dropped to a 60.9% completion rate, his second lowest of the season, and 155 passing yards, his lowest output of 2025.
This week, he'll face a Ravens secondary that has experienced playmakers, including safety Kyle Hamilton, who plays all over the place and will have a significant role covering some of Maye's favorite targets, the tight end group.
Baltimore's defense doesn't boast lofty rankings, they mostly come in around the middle of the league — they're 21st in DVOA, 16th in points and 8th on third down. But those statistics are weighed down by their 1-5 start to the season. Baltimore's defense has turned things around in recent weeks. They have 13 takeaways since their bye week, going 6-2 and are an aggressive group that will play their best with the playoffs on the line.
The Ravens have played a lot of man coverage (7th) and single-high safety (6th), but the pressure numbers lag behind. According to Next Gen Stats, they're 29th in pressure rate. Baltimore could adopt some of Buffalo's two-high safeties approach, but if they do what they usually do, Maye could have a chance to reignite the passing game, especially if good pass protection forces the Ravens to employ more blitzes.
That means getting back to his established 2025 form, with elite downfield passes and sharp reads, to ensure New England moves the ball and scores points.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
