The New England Patriots are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2021 and they'll face the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round. The Pats secured the second overall seed in the AFC with a 14-3 record, while the Chargers finished 11-6, just behind the Broncos in the AFC West.
Though the Chargers traveled to New England last season and came away with a lopsided 40-7 win in Week 17, this is a far different Patriots team, powered by an MVP-worthy season from second-year quarterback Drake Maye. Still, last year's result is a reminder of just how good the Chargers offense with Justin Herbert can be once they get rolling.
This will be the fourth time the two franchises have met in the playoffs. The first came in the 1963 AFL Championship, with the Chargers rolling at home to a 51-10 win. It would be 43 years before they met again, during the 2006 postseason, and once again in San Diego, with the Patriots pulling off a Divisional Round upset of the top-seeded Chargers.
They'd face each other again in 2007's AFC Championship, with Tom Brady and the Pats rolling to their 18th-straight victory of the season, 21-12. 11 years later, in the 2018 AFC Wild Card round, the Patriots won their third-straight of the playoff rivalry, on their way to the team's sixth title.
Sunday night should be another classic, pitting two of the best young quarterbacks and toughest teams in the NFL against each other.
Here are the three things that will decide the night.
1. Pressure Herbert
After losing twin tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater early this season, Justin Herbert was the most pressured quarterback in the NFL. He was sacked 54 times, second highest in the league and saw his passer rating drop from 109.8 when not facing pressure to 67.1 when he was facing pressure.
It's obvious that New England should attack their current starters Jamaree Salyer and Trey Pipkins III, but the question is can they exploit the backups who have settled in over recent weeks?
All season, the Patriots have hovered with a just above-average pressure rate, and they got a late lift with the return of Milton Williams in Week 18. But just above-average might not be enough to get it done against Herbert, who willed his team to the postseason despite being consistently under duress and having a left hand injury to show for it.
If Harold Landry III, New England's leader in sacks, can return to his early-season form after missing two games, pairing him with K'Lavon Chaisson on the edges is the simplest way to attack L.A.'s tackles.
Inside, Williams' presence is huge, not only for the plays he consistently makes but for the attention he requires. Christian Barmore could be a key beneficiary of that attention.
If the Patriots consistently affect Herbert, Los Angeles will have to live in second‑and‑long and third‑and‑long, where even a quarterback as good as him becomes mortal. If they don't, Herbert will make them pay.
2. Keep the Run Game Credible
The biggest difference in New England's offense down the stretch has been the health and explosive production of their running backs. With Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson back to their balanced rotation, the Patriots no longer need Maye to win every down. Stevenson remains the tone‑setter, a patient runner who can break tackles as well as long runs. Henderson is the lightning, with the kind of explosiveness that can change a game with a single carry.
Stevenson finished the regular season with 603 rushing yards and seven touchdowns (14 games), while Henderson delivered 911 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns on 180 carries, an efficient 5.1 yards per attempt. The duo looks primed for the playoffs, peaking at the right time after both battled ups and downs over the course of the season.
But this is no walkover matchup. The Chargers defense ranks 8th in rushing yards allowed and fourth in rush EPA. They tackle well, fit gaps, and rally fast, producing one of the league's stoutest fronts. The run game doesn't have to carry the day, just keep the Chargers honest enough so Maye doesn't spend sixty minutes in obvious pass situations with Tuli Tuipulotu, who had 13 sacks and a whopping 60 QB pressures this year, teeing off.
If the Patriots can stay on time with a consistent run game, it will help open everything up for Maye.
3. Drake in the Clutch
Three weeks ago, against Baltimore, Drake Maye logged his first fourth-quarter comeback. It was the perfect kind of confidence-inspiring performance needed as the season wound down. He didn't blink in leading his team back from 11 points down. That's what New England needs in single-elimination football.
The Chargers will greet him with the fifth-highest rate of zone coverage in the league, the third-highest rate of split‑safety shells, and an emphasis on keeping eyes on the quarterback that could limit the damage Maye can do with his legs.
It's a structure that aims to deny explosives and rally to the catch, and it has L.A. inside the top 10 of most important statistical categories under defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. The Chargers are third on third down, seventh in points allowed and fourth inside the red zone.
And in the middle of it all is Derwin James, whose range and recognition are a problem on every down.
However, Maye should have all the answers he needs to pass this test. His advanced statistical profile shows top‑tier air‑yards aggressiveness; he led the league in air yards per attempt (9.46). But it's not just how far downfield Maye is throwing it, it's the accuracy with which he's doing it, a rare blend that turns small windows into explosive gains. Maye also led the league in completion percentage (72%), also a Patriots team record.
Simply put, Maye's ability to tear teams apart downfield with pinpoint accuracy is his superpower and one that could decide the outcome of the game. Another key factor is that Maye had the second-highest success rate against zone coverage in the NFL this season.
The trick against the Chargers will be patience early, precision late. Take the easy profit when zone coverage allows it, trust Stevenson and Henderson to keep the sticks moving, and wait for the two or three downfield chances that will inevitably appear when Los Angeles adjusts, either with blitzes or by stacking the box.
In the postseason, games often pivot on one or two throws. New England has seen Maye make them in critical moments; now he has to make them against one of the best defenses he's faced all season long in a win-or-go-home playoff situation.
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