After reviewing the tape from Sunday's loss to the Dolphins, it's fair to label this game a total system failure for the Patriots in their house of horrors down in Miami.
This was a program-wide loss for head coach Jerod Mayo's team, meaning there weren't any sacred cows when you get down 31-0 to a division rival. According to Aaron Schatz's DVOA metric, the Patriots are now ranked last in total DVOA, with the 31st-ranked offense and a defense that went from ninth a year ago to 30th in 2024. Although it's all been well-documented, seeing those rankings is still a "how did we get here" moment.
Offensively, the chickens came home to roost along the offensive line, which had been held together by some much-needed continuity, rookie QB Drake Maye, and a more concerted effort by the coaching staff to protect the line in their game plans. The Patriots offensive line failed against a Dolphins defense that has some dudes up front, but it ran deeper than just one-on-one losses in the trenches.
The O-Line was called for 11 combined penalties, including four accepted false starts on starting tackles Vederian Lowe (3) and Demontrey Jacobs. Lowe and Jacobs were also called for offensive holding, as was starting RG Mike Onwenu, contributing to 50 yards lost due to penalties on the line. Jacobs struggled with dynamic first-rounder Chop Robinson and was eventually benched in the fourth quarter for backup G/T Sidy Sow.
Miami seemed to confuse the entire offense with their fire zones on Sunday. The Dolphins blitzed Maye 15 times, 32.6%, with the Pats rookie going 6-of-12 for 31 yards with two sacks and two turnovers vs. the blitz. Coming off a week where Maye mostly handled an aggressive Rams defense, it was surprising to see the offense struggle against Miami's zone-blitz plan. The Dolphins played zone coverage on 77.8% of Maye's 46 drop-backs, and too often, there were breakdowns where it didn't appear like Maye had answers. The line and running backs had issues sorting through blitzes, while we also should discuss how this offense works when the defense makes the quarterback "hot" by blitzing more rushers than the offense has blockers.
For example, the Dolphins stress the protection here. With the quarterback moving the back over, the Pats have three blockers to the right of center, meaning if an extra defender comes, they must throw hot to beat the blitz. In this instance, the Dolphins blitz four over three, with S Jordan Poyer (No. 21) adding into the rush. As for the throw and route itself, this is where the nuances of this West Coast offense come into play. According to OC Alex Van Pelt, WR DeMario Douglas had a five-step slant tied to Maye's drop-back. Instead, Douglas broke off his route at three steps, throwing off the timing of the play. Once he's ready to throw, Douglas is further upfield than Maye was anticipating, so the pass was behind a wide-open receiver.
Here's another example of a sack against the blitz. This time, Miami brings two defenders to overload the right side of the protection. Even though the free rusher is coming from over the left slot, TE Hunter Henry stays locked into his crossing route. Maye opens to the short side of the field, where it appears TE Austin Hooper's spot route is the designated hot route in this concept. However, the Dolphins drop a rusher off the line into a zone underneath Hooper's route, causing Maye to hesitate, and he's sacked.
On a positive note, Maye still registered 11 'plus' plays in my charting. Maye had some solid in-structure moments where he was executing traditional quarterback plays. He also created out-of-structure by saving doomed plays under pressure by scrambling or throwing on the move, completing two passes for 48 yards and a touchdown working off-script.
Although we want to avoid riding the weekly rollercoaster where every game is a referendum on the state of the team, you don't want to see too many games where Maye is under pressure on 41.3% of his drop-backs. In his 10 minus plays, there were times when some old bad habits began creeping in, with occasional sprays/poor accuracy, a sack and a hurry caused by the QB, and two turnovers trying to do too much.
The Patriots talent deficiencies on offense aren't going away in their remaining five games. However, they need to get everyone on the same page, from the line, quarterback, and receivers, to react as one to the defense. This type of stuff they can control and mostly did well the week before vs. the Rams. On Sunday, they weren't locked in on the details.
Here is a review of the Patriots defense and quick-hit film notes from the loss to the Dolphins After Further Review.
Patriots Defense Review: Dolphins Expose Pats Pass Defense Between the Numbers
As we start discussing where the Patriots must improve personnel-wise heading into the offseason, one takeaway in Game Observations was that the No. 2 corner spot was a potential need.
There's still a case to be made that New England could improve its cornerback depth, especially after Jaylen Waddle (8-144-TD) joined Puka Nacau and Cooper Kupp as the latest elite receiver to have a huge day against Patriots defenders not named Christian Gonzalez, who only allowed one catch for 14 yards to Waddle on Sunday.
However, after reviewing the defense on film, we have to have another tough discussion about the Patriots linebacker and safety play, particularly as it pertains to pass defense. Unfortunately, we've had this talk before about speed and cover skills in the middle of the field. Well, here we are again. On Sunday, the Pats top two corners were only responsible for 29% of Tua Tagovailoa's 317 passing yards, with Gonzo and Jones allowing seven catches for 92 yards with four pass breakups between them into their coverage against two great receivers.
Instead, Tua did most of his damage by attacking between the numbers, with 22 completions for 225 yards and all four touchdowns coming against linebackers and safeties. Tagovailoa did most of his damage at the first two levels of the defense between the numbers, throwing for 152 yards and two scores in that area of the field. Here is how it got divvied up from an individual standpoint: Dugger (74 yards, 2 TD), Tavai (51 yards, TD), Mapu (27 yards), Elliss (22 yards), Takitaki (21 yards, TD), Jennings (14 yards), Hawkins (8 yards), and White (7 yards).
On the season, the Patriots rank 28th in average yards (9.6) and expected points added (+0.43) per pass attempt in the middle of the field. The Pats corners can cover, so teams mostly stay away from them, particularly Gonzalez, and create voids in their zone structures over the middle of the field with motion, backfield action, and nifty quarterbacking.
For Miami, that meant using all the tricks in HC Mike McDaniel's bag to manipulate middle-of-the-field defenders out of passing lanes and attack the space between the numbers. Like McVay the week before, McDaniel motioned on nearly every offensive play vs. the Patriots (93.7%). As you can see above, the goal was to use the motion as eye candy, meaning the Dolphins were motioning to catch the defense's eyes in the wrong places rather than throwing to the man in motion. The motions created voids in the Patriots coverage structures, and with eyes on the backfield action, the Dolphins threw it where the Pats weren't looking.
The other way Miami attacked the Patriots non-cornerbacks was in the red zone. New England ran coverages with brackets on Tyreel Hill and Waddle while Gonzalez took Odell Beckham on an island. In this play, the Pats had "cone" brackets (inside-out) on Waddle (right) and are cutting Hill's crossing route working across the field. The coverage scheme takes away Miami's top options, but S Kyle Dugger loses TE Jonnu Smith in single coverage. Smith delays his release, so Dugger responds by getting depth, thinking he's a free zone player with Smith blocking. Unfortunately, Smith released late on the backside crosser, and it's six.
When the Dolphins challenged them in man coverage, the Patriots corners battled. Here, Gonzalez is traveling with Hill in man-to-man, and smothers the Dolphins receiver's route when he releaes upfield from motioning across the formation. By putting the clamps on Hill, Gonzo's coverage forces Tua to hold the ball, leading to DT Christian Barmore's first sack of the year.
There were other instances where New England's corners were competitive in man coverage, like the two-man example above, where Jones logs a pass breakup covering Beckham. Unfortunately, Miami did too much damage attacking other areas of the Pats defense.
The Patriots are in a position where they must look for upgrades everywhere on their roster, but Sunday's game was less about the cornerback play and more about the middle of the field.
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Dolphins After Further Review
Offense
- It's hard to make sense of the gap play-action concepts in this offense. The routes and run actions don't pair together well so that they can throw the ball into open voids when they get the defenders they're putting into conflict to bite on the play-action fake.
For example, here is a side-by-side view of a nearly identical run-action design from a pistol formation by both teams. For the Pats, the routes are a nine-stop and an out at 16 yards, while Miami runs levels/crossers over the middle of the field. The Dolphins play-action fake draws the second-level defenders out of the passing lane for Tua to hit the crosser underneath. The Pats routes aren't putting the second level in conflict because they don't have any routes breaking into the middle of the field.
- This was the best game for RG Mike Onwenu of the season. Onwenu had standout blocks on a nine-yard run, six-yard run, and four-yard run while also handling Calais Campbell and Zach Sieler one-on-one in pass pro. Onwenu had one hurry and a hold despite drawing the most difficult assignment on the line. It didn't show because of the system failures elsewhere, but Onwenu is starting to play up to his contract recently.
- LT Vederian Lowe had three legitimate false starts and one where Calais Campbell jumped offside but his teammates didn't rush out to touch Campbell to draw a flag. Campbell got back onside, and that's when Lowe flinched. He also got beat through his inside shoulder on the strip sack, but as we went over, he could've gotten some more help from his left guard on that play. Overall, the penalties cannot happen, but the two quarterback pressures Lowe allowed weren't all that bad. Just a tough day at the office from a procedural standpoint.
- RT Trey Jacobs was benched in this game after allowing a team-high nine pressures and two sacks. Dolphins first-rounder Chop Robinson beat Jacobs mostly with speed-to-power and a two-hand swipe move to corner the edge. Jacobs can be slow getting to his landmarks out of his stance, presenting problems vs. dynamic rushers like Robinson. Jacobs also had some issues blocking inside-out on blitz schemes over his edge, where he has let the inside rusher through multiple times over the last two games. The Pats don't have many options at tackle, but they might need to explore Sidy Sow or hope rookie Caedan Wallace gets healthy.
- LG Michael Jordan continues to struggle with diagnosing schemed pressure, whether it's allowing a sack and a hit on T/E stunts or coming off his block on the strip sack. He had a nice run block on a nine-yard rush early in the game, but Jordan isn't seeing the post-snap line movement, and defenses continue to attack him with stunts every week. Cole Strange time?
- C Ben Brown had a quiet day with one hurry allowed and a nice pull block to get the edge on a pin-pull scheme that moved the chains on second-and-one. He wasn't tested much in pass protection, with the Dolphins most pressuring off the edge with their fire zones.
- WR DeMario Douglas continues to be their most dynamic pass-catcher with gains of 27 and 20 yards. However, there are times when the details could be sharper. It seemed like Maye was expecting Pop to settle on "hot" routes, but the two weren't on the same page, leading to a bad miss and a sack. Still, the one-handed catch-and-run and the continued success of the RPO slant concept are good foundational plays.
- WR Kendrick Bourne made two really nice plays on the ball for his quarterback, working open in playground mode and coming back to the ball to box out Jalen Ramsey on an inside hitch route. However, Bourne ran a vertical vs. off-coverage when Maye was expecting him to run a hitch, leading to an incomplete pass on a miscommunication.
- WR Kayshon Boutte led the WR room in snaps (60) but only caught one pass for six yards. His OPI was legit as he began blocking before Maye threw the ball on a screen, and he didn't give Maye much of a bucket to drop his go route. They need more from their starting X receiver.
- Rookie WRs Ja'Lynn Polk (18) and Javon Baker (9) didn't run enough routes to make any grand proclamations. Polk seemed to read the blitz well on one occasion to present an option for Maye, but the blocking didn't sort it out correctly. I'm wondering if Baker starts to see some of the 'X' snaps if the lack of downfield separation continues for Boutte.
- Not much to glean from the backs due to the lack of traditional rushing. Lead-back Rhamondre Stevenson didn't maximize the yards on a one-yard gain and this scribe thought he could've done more to make himself available to Bourne on the double pass. Stevenson could've flashed open more clearly so that Bourne knew where he was throwing the ball.
- TEs Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper were their typical reliable selves. Henry probably wants that corner route back where he let the safety knock the ball loose. Maye pumped off the cloud corner (Ramsey) and hit Henry with a great throw on the seven route. You'd like to see your veteran tight end make that catch for his young QB by shielding the catch point from the safety.
- The Pats gave G/T Sidy Sow help on most of their drop-back concepts in the fourth quarter, but Sow did have good eyes to sniff out a pressure scheme and blocked Robinson one-on-one nicely on a rep. Not bad seeing that all Sow has played is a jumbo tight end, fullback, and guard.
- QB Pressures: Jacobs (two sacks, hit, six hurries), Jordan (sack, hit, two hurries), Lowe (sack, hurry), Onwenu (hurry), Brown (hurry).
Defense
- It was challenging to assess the Patriots pass rushers in this one because Tua's average time to throw was 2.22 seconds. Honestly, the insanely quick release coupled with receivers running free didn't give the pass rush much chance. In the run game, the Pats held Miami to a 27% success rate with only six successful runs to seven stuffs. I give the D-Line credit, as they stopped the run in lighter boxes for most of the game.
- The "Longhorn" package struck again with a nice scheme to get Schooler a free run at Tua for a fourth-quarter sack. The Pats forced Miami into a five-man slide by simulating pressure with five rushers up on the line of scrimmage and then blitzed Schooler while dropping Keion White, who the Dolphins were doubling all day, into coverage. The scheme and Schooler's speed did the rest. We might need to see more Schooler on third-down passing situations. He's a dynamic athlete who brings some much-needed explosiveness to the pass rush.
- CB Christian Gonzalez didn't solely travel with Tyreek Hill, but he spent most of his day covering either Hill (18 routes) or Waddle (seven routes). If there was one nitpick in this game for Gonzo, it was the 24 yards he allowed on two completions on in-breakers vs. his man coverage. Gonzalez will give up the inside track some, over-playing his leverage and getting a little loose at the top of the route. Overall, Gonzalez did his job against top elite receivers and smothered an Odell Beckham slant on his pass breakup. He was far from the problem.
- DL Keion White continued a strong season with two more hurries and a great run stuff working through multiple blockers to blow up the ball carrier. White's euro-rip move led to one of two quick pressures in this game for the Patriots, with the other going to Schooler on his sack. White is trending toward Tuesday player status. Now, they need to get Barmore back to his usual self and add an edge rusher who can get after the passer.
- CB Marcus Jones made some plays and gave up some as well, allowing five catches for 68 yards into his coverage with three pass breakups. In man coverage, Jones's average separation allowed on six targets was less than a yard (0.7), so he was competitive. However, his limited length makes life tougher for him to make plays at the catch point. We often think about height as a matchup problem from a size standpoint, but it seems to hurt Jones more when he's trying to drive passing windows than defend high-point fades. Jones is often step-for-step with his man but gets beat at the catch point, such as life for a 5-foot-8 corner.
- S Kyle Dugger struggled in this one, allowing a team-high six catches for 74 yards with a hand in all four touchdowns. Dugger has always had limitations in coverage, but he looked like a different player out there on Sunday and was hard on himself after the game. All the backfield action, fakes, and eye manipulation had him chasing the ball all day. Dugger is a better player than he has shown since returning from an ankle injury over the last two games. On a positive note, Dugger recorded a run stuff that was a nice play working in the box.
- DT Christian Barmore logged his first sack of the season and was credited with a run stuff, but he's a shell of himself, as one would expect. It was telling that the Dolphins aimed the protection at White while leaving Barmore one-on-one with their guards. Nobody is faulting Barmore, given the circumstances. Still, you can tell who opponents fear by how they plan for them, and right now, Miami didn't fear Barmore.
- LB Anfernee Jennings was excellent at setting the edge of the defense against a run game that wants to get outside the tackles. Jennings led the Patriots with three run stuffs as Miami learned the hard way that you can't block him with a tight end. NT Davon Godchaux also did his job on the interior with two stuffs and some solid two-gapping.
- S Marte Mapu had some good moments on defense with a third-down pass breakup on Miami's opening drive and was in the backfield to stick the ball carrier on Gonzo's fumble return touchdown. The ball was probably coming out already, but Mapu was there for a TFL, too.
- DE Yannick Ngakoue recorded his first pressure with a punch-dip rush on the left tackle, but his cross-chop move was ineffective in this one, and he failed to set the edge on a successful run. Ngakoue continued to play in a situational role with 24 of his 31 snaps vs. the pass.
- QB Pressures: Barmore (sack), Schooler (sack), Pharms (two hurries), White (two hurries), Elliss (hurry), Jennings (hurry), Godchaux (hurry), Ngakoue (hurry). Run stuffs: Jennings (3), Pettus (2), Godchaux (2), eight players with one (Pharms, Gonzalez, Dugger, Elliss, White, Mapu, Hawkins, Ekaule).
- Coverage: Dugger (7/6/74 yards/2 TDs), M. Jones (8/5/68 yards/3 PBUs), Tavai (8/6/51 yards/TD), Mapu (4/2/27 yards/PBU), Gonzalez (3/2/24 yards/PBU), Elliss (3/2/22 yards/PBU), Takitaki (3/2/21 yards/TD), Jennings (1/1/14 yards), Hawkins (1/1/8 yards), White (1/1/7 yards), J. Jones (1/1/1 yard).
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