As most of you know by now, the Patriots are headed back to the Super Bowl, where they'll face the NFC champion Seattle Seahawks at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara on Sunday, Feb. 8.
To kick off our Super Bowl previews, here's a quick primer on the Patriots opponent in Super Bowl LX. Seattle earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a 14-3 record under second-year head coach Mike Macdonald. Macdonald rose up the coaching ranks as Baltimore's defensive coordinator. He now runs an outstanding defense in Seattle. The unit ranked No. 1 in EPA, points allowed, and total yards allowed during the regular season. On offense, Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak installed a West Coast system. This setup has allowed QB Sam Darnold to continue his career renaissance in a system similar to what he ran in Minnesota last season.
Starting with the Seahawks defense, Macdonald runs a split-safety zone-based scheme that ranks eighth in zone coverage rate this season (79.6%). Although their most common coverage is still cover three, Seattle tends to get to single-sigh safety coverages out of two-high pre-snap shells, calling split-safety coverages on 49.4% of their coverages (fifth-most in the NFL). Although they'll match routes and play combo coverages (man to one side, zone to the other), Seattle doesn't call much straight man coverage.
The Seahawks also have a highly disruptive defensive front that ranks fourth in team pressure rate (38.9%) despite only blitzing on 23.1% of their pass plays (25th in the NFL). Seattle will scheme up pressure at times by simulating pressure (threaten all-out blitz and drop out) or dropping rushers off the line of scrimmage to blitz from the second and third levels. However, they have the personnel to win with four-man rushes and Macdonald uses a nice blend of disguise and structure to limit big plays.
As for their defensive personnel, one of the keys to Seattle's success defensively is its league-high rate of playing nickel defense. The Seahawks play with five defensive backs at the second-highest rate in the NFL because versatile nickel-safety Nick Emmanwori allows them to do so. Macdonald uses Emmanwori similarly to how he deployed Ravens star S Kyle Hamilton, playing him mostly in the box or over the slot. Emmanwori's ability to cover the slot and stop the run allows the Seahawks to stay away from putting an extra linebacker on the field in base defense, which they play at a league-low rate of 6.2% this season.
The gauntlet of terrific defenses for the Patriots offense in these playoffs will continue in Santa Clara. After dominating the 49ers in the divisional round, Seattle showed some vulnerabilities in the NFC Championship Game vs. the Rams, but the Seahawks defense was in the same elite tier as the Texans defense all season long. You could make an argument that Seattle has the best defense in the NFL based on the numbers and eye test after watching some film.
As for the other side of the ball, Darnold was terrific in Seattle's 31-27 victory over Los Angeles in the NFC title game, but the season-long numbers are more pedestrian for the Seahawks offense. Although they ranked third in points per game thanks to help from their defense and return units (28.4), the Seahawks were just 14th in EPA per play during the regular season. As mentioned, Kubiak comes from the Shanahan tree, with his father, Gary Kubiak, tied to Mike Shanahan's legacy in Denver. The younger Kubiak is running the same West Coast scheme that bases the offense on zone-blocking and moving pockets, but is more modest with his motion usage compared to Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, and the other modern Shanahan tree disciples (66% motion rate, 16th).
The Seahawks might've thrown the ball around to reach the Super Bowl last week, but they were last in the NFL in called pass rate up until Darnold's high-volume passing game vs. the Rams (40 drop-backs). Seattle plays over half its snaps from under center (52.6%, 2nd), has the second run+play-action rate in the NFL (62.8%), and only puts three wide receivers on the field on 41.2% of its offensive plays (29th) – this is a run-heavy operation built off the stretch play.
Seattle's two star playmakers are Offensive Player of the Year candidate WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and lead-back Kenneth Walker, who is an explosive runner. The Seahawks mostly play Smith-Njigba with veteran wideout Cooper Kupp, who starred in a similar offense with the Rams under Sean McVay. Trade deadline addition Rasheed Shaheed is playing more often as a field-stretcher and gadget player, both their tight ends are big and can block, and the Seahawks play a decent amount of two-back sets with FB Robbie Outzs.
Lastly, we have to mention that Shaheed is an electric returner who is a threat to take both kickoffs and punts to the house. Shaheed has made immediate contributions since joining the Seahawks from the Saints at the trade deadline, scoring a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown in a blowout win over the 49ers in the divisional round. The Seahawks have scoring threats in all three phases, driving up their points per game because they're so often winning the turnover and field-position battles on defense and special teams.
Although taking down the Seahawks will be a huge challenge, the Patriots defense matches up well against Seattle's offense. The Seahawks build everything off their run game, but they haven't been overly efficient running the ball (22nd in rush EPA) and are down their bruising No. 2 running back, Zach Charbonnet, who complemented Walker well. New England's run defense has been terrific and they've been mostly sharp against bootleg plays as well, so you like their chances to turn Seattle into a drop-back passing team.
Still, one would expect that the Seahawks will put up some points. So, Super Bowl LX will likely come down to whether the Patriots offense can break out of its playoff slump.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
