After earning the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, the Patriots will host the No. 7 seed, the Los Angeles Chargers, in the Wild Card round on Sunday, January 11 at 8 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium – Maye vs. Herbert in primetime.
As the runner-ups in the AFC West, the Chargers finished the regular season with an 11-6 record, led by head coach Jim Harbaugh and star QB Justin Herbert. Despite losing both their starting offensive tackles for the season, Pro Bowlers Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, Los Angeles overcame significant injuries to make the playoffs. The Chargers come into the playoffs ranked 17th in total DVOA, 19th on offense, and 10th on defense (Patriots are 15th).
We'll have significantly more in-depth analysis on the matchup this week, but here's a brief summary of what the Patriots will face when they play the Chargers on Sunday night.
Starting with the Chargers offense, Herbert is a terrific talent who is widely considered to be one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks. There are some similarities to Patriots QB Drake Maye in Herbert's play style. The Chargers QB has excellent arm talent to attack the entire field, dual-threat ability to scramble and extend plays, and is a big-time playmaker inside and outside the pocket — a significant challenge for the Patriots defense.
Schematically, Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman runs a downhill run scheme mostly out of three-receiver sets featuring standout WR Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, veteran Keenan Allen, and pass-catching TE Oronde Gadsden II, while rookie WR Tre Harris plays some as well. Los Angeles also features two-back groupings with FB Scott Matlock and a jumbo package with six linemen, leaning on first-round RB Omarion Hampton and vet RB Kimani Vidal.
The Chargers have done some creative things to keep Herbert protected and find a run game amidst their offensive line injuries, which is an area the Patriots can exploit. The Chargers rank 32nd in pass-blocking win rate, 31st in run-blocking win rate, and 24th in rush EPA. On film, LA struggles with disguised blitzes and line stunts, and doesn't generate much movement in the run game. With injuries in the front seven, New England's run defense ranks 30th in EPA since Week 12. However, DT Milton Williams, LB Robert Spillane, NT Khyiris Tonga, and OLB Harold Landry III are all hoping to play in the playoffs – a significant boost for the Pats defense.
New England's corners also match up well against LA's receivers, with top NCB Marcus Jones covering McConkey in the slot with possibly extra attention, while CB Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III take the outside receivers. Still, for the Pats defense, this game will be decided in the trenches: can they stop the run and generate pressure? From clean pockets, Herbert can be lethal.
Moving over to the Chargers defense, Chargers DC Jesse Minter is a rising star who came to LA with Harbaugh from the University of Michigan. Los Angeles bases its defense out of four-man fronts, then features pass-rush (load) fronts on third downs. They major in quarters-based schemes, ranking fourth in the NFL with an 80.9% zone coverage rate, with good disguise. According to NextGen Stats, the Chargers schemed pass-rushes generate an unblocked rusher at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (9.2%).
As for their personnel, do-it-all S Derwin James is a playmaking chess piece. James moves around all three levels, but he plays mostly in the box and over the slot to be near the football. James will blitz and fill in run support, while lurking for takeaways in zone coverages. LA also has underrated EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu (70 total pressures), future Hall of Fame pass-rusher Khalil Mack, and CB Donte Jackson, who is having a solid season as their top outside corner.
Although they're an impressive eighth in drop-back EPA allowed, the Chargers majoring in zone coverages could be a good thing. Maye leads all qualified quarterbacks in EPA per drop-back against zone coverage, excelling against the Chargers two most common coverages, quarters and cover-three. In fact, Maye has added his most expected points against cover-three (+72.7) and quarters (+31.7). Still, Minter's scheming will be challenging.
The Patriots have the better regular-season record, but the Chargers will be a tough out. They have an MVP-caliber quarterback, a coach with a winning pedigree in the playoffs, and the seventh-ranked scoring defense in the NFL (20.1 PPG). The clearest path to victory for the Patriots is to continue a great passing season against zone defenses and win the trenches battle against a short-handed Chargers offensive line.
The Patriots will host the Chargers in the Wild Card round at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night at 8 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
