Foxborough, MA â The Patriots let an opportunity to clinch the AFC East slip away in a 35-31 loss to the Bills at Gillette Stadium, and that one stings.
New England was starting to taste the division title when they led by as many as 21 points in the first half, opening with a 21-0 lead and then a 24-7 lead at halftime. Unfortunately, a Buffalo avalanche came next with the Bills scoring touchdowns on five straight drives to complete a stunning comeback that ended the Patriots 10-game winning streak.
There's nothing that we can write to make Patriots fans feel better about Sunday's result. The AFC East was there for the taking, but New England collapsed in the second half, plain and simple. Although it's more fun to learn while winning, the Patriots will take the harder path by learning from a loss. From this perspective, the main reasons the game flipped in Buffalo's favor were losing field-position battles and better execution by the Bills in key situations. Certainly, head coach Mike Vrabel will be preaching improved execution in those areas.
"We were going to need 60 minutes to beat this team. This is a good football team. We had a lot of good football in there. And we had a few plays we'd like to have back that we'll have to learn from," Vrabel said post-game. "We have an opportunity to improve like we have when we won, the same as today when we lost and came up short. There's a lot of good stuff in there that I'm proud of and that we'll be able to use as a positive, and a lot of stuff that we have to correct and make sure that we fix," Vrabel continued.
There are two options from here for the Patriots, who are still in the driver's seat in the AFC East race. Yes, it would've been nice to knock the kings off their throne, but with wins over the Jets and Dolphins, New England would still win the division and remain in a good position to make the playoffs. That said, they can either learn from taking a "nap" that let the Bills back in the game, or let this loss snowball on them.
If we had to guess, Vrabel isn't going to let his team let go of the rope. The message from every corner of the locker room was they're going to learn from this loss and show their resilience to bounce back, with plenty of confidence in the room. Sometimes, it's easy to forget that this is year one under Vrabel, year two for QB Drake Maye in the NFL, and the first playoff-like game for a young football team; rebuilding championship mettle doesn't happen overnight.
"Don't let it beat you twice. Move on to the next week, learn from it, and take what we can. And know that we've got some football ahead of us that's still very important," said Maye. "Keep your head up and know that we had a chance and we're there, they just made more plays."
Here are eight takeaways as the Patriots drop to 11-3 with a loss to the Bills in Week 15.
1. Play of the Game: RB TreVeyon Henderson Houses a 65-Yard TD with an Assist to Maye
After the Bills scored 21-straight points to take their first lead of the game, the Patriots needed a spark to stay in the game with the Buffalo offense rolling in the second half.
Although it wasn't enough to get the win, the Patriots retook the lead in the fourth quarter (31-28) with a 1-play touchdown drive thanks to their explosive rookie running back. New England was trying toss plays out of heavy personnel (six OL, fullback) all afternoon without much success. However, after the Bills took the lead for the first time, Henderson broke one for a momentum-snatching house call that gave the Patriots life.
On the play, the Bills read the toss the whole way and appear to have it blown up, but Buffalo's defense over pursues the ball, and Henderson keeps himself alive long enough to see the cutback lane. Henderson then reversed field, reaching a top speed of 21.25 MPH with his quarterback also getting on his horse (20.58 MPH) as a lead blocker to out-run the Bills defense for a 65-yard TD.
"I just think a play like that shows a lot about Drake Maye, the type of player and person he is, and how unselfish he is. That's why when I got in the endzone, the first thing I did was point up to God, of course, but then point at him and just let him know I really appreciate that, appreciate his effort," Henderson said.â
Unfortunately, the Patriots fourth-quarter lead was short-lived as the Bills would regain the lead with a touchdown drive of their own on Buffalo's next possession. Still, it was a great performance for Henderson, who had two 50-plus yard touchdowns while accumulating 148 rushing yards on 14 carries.
Henderson's surge in the second half of the season has been a hugely positive development for a first-year player whom the Patriots invested a high second-round pick in. Over his last five games, Henderson's 490 rushing yards rank seventh in the NFL (pending the conclusion of Week 15), ), and his four rushing TDs of 50-plus yards ties an NFL record for most from a rookie with only Saquan Barkley (2018) and Lenny Moore (1956) doing the same.
2. QB Drake Maye Adds Mobility to Red-Zone Offense, But Passing Game Faulters
In the first half, Maye and the Patriots offense played nearly perfectly, which was reflected on the scoreboard when New England put up 24 first-half points on 285 yards of total offense.
Maye was 9-of-11 for 108 yards while adding +0.59 EPA per drop-back in the opening two quarters. He was doing a little bit of everything, but mostly adding value with his legs. For example, he turned a potential sack into a 17-yard scramble with a great escape, and then rushed for two touchdowns, with the Pats dusting off that part of their playbook to liven up the red zone offense.
Over the last few weeks, New England's red zone offense has been in a bit of a slump, with a 33.3% touchdown rate in their last three games, dropping them to 25th in red zone scoring. One idea we kicked around to awaken the offense in the red zone was using Maye's legs on read-option plays or designed runs, which is exactly what OC Josh McDaniels did.
The first Maye touchdown that capped off the Pats opening drive with a touchdown was a zone-read keeper. Maye is reading the unblocked defender to his left (DE A.J. Epenesa), while TE Hunter Henry runs across the formation to form an "escort" block to the QB run side. When the Bills defensive end crashes down, Maye takes advantage of the soft edge, with Henry and WR Kayshon Boutte (crack block) executing their blocks to lead Maye into the end zone.
Maye's second rushing touchdown of the first half appeared to be an RPO draw, where the receivers do run pass routes, and Maye has the option to throw quickly or run. Maye appears to read LB Shaq Thompson (No. 45), who drops into the zone coverage on the three-receiver side, parting the seas for Maye to trigger the draw play for an easy 7-yard touchdown run.
However, Maye's production dipped considerably in the final two quarters, where Maye was 5-of-12 for 47 yards while producing -0.71 EPA per drop-back. Most notably, the passing offense struggled on late downs, with just a 16.7% success on third and fourth down. Maye had a few sprays and took a sack when there appeared to be open receivers downfield, while the Bills played split-safety shells on 86.7% of his drop-backs to limit big plays.
A huge part of After Further Review will be dissecting the film to see whether the Bills defense "solved" Maye, or if it was just a bad half of football for the Patriots.
3. Bills Offense Wins Situational Football Battle vs. the Patriots Defense
Speaking after the game, OLB K'Lavon Chaisson said that the defense can't expect the offense to "save" them when they give up 35 points, noting that it was a disappointing effort defensively.
From this perspective, the most disappointing aspect of Sunday's game was that the Bills won the late-down chess match. Allen is the reigning MVP for a reason, but New England matched up well against Buffalo's skill players, and yet Allen still added +0.31 expected points added per drop-back (81st percentile) with a 59% late-down success rate and a 5-for-6 showing in the red zone â Buffalo's offense won the key situations.
For example, we wrote in our gameplan preview that the Bills would run the mesh concept several times per game. Buffalo went to the call twice in key spots, including a fourth-down play where New England's defense appeared to know mesh (intersecting crossers) was coming.
The Bills went to their bread-and-butter on a key 4th-and-5 in the fourth quarter: mesh-rail. Over the middle of the field, Buffalo has intersecting crossing routes, while RB Ty Johnson runs the wheel (rail) out of the backfield. Rather than trying to run with the crossing routes, the Pats try to pass them off, but that means FS Jaylinn Hawkins has to vacate the post to cover Johnson's route, leaving NCB Marcus Jones without safety help on the deep crosser for a 37-yard gain.
New England's adjustment to have the post-safety take the back might've been a response to Buffalo scoring on mesh earlier in the game. On James Cook's first touchdown, the Bills ran mesh, and the Pats tried to track Cooks with LB Christian Elliss covering the flat from the middle of the field, a tough assignment to get to the edge before Cook did.
Despite playing their highest single-game man coverage rate of the year (51.5%), there weren't enough late-down answers vs. a Bills offense that was going to churn out rushing yards and land some punches â a lack of turnovers and late-down stops decided the game.
4. Kickoff Coverage Issues Loom Large in a One-Score Loss to the Bills
Usually, we save the special teams notes for last. However, we're moving it up because it was a huge reason why the Bills won. As for their kickoff coverage, the Patriots surrendered returns of 58 and 45 yards to Bills RB Ray Davis, and then allowed a 38-yard return that was made worse by a 15-yard penalty (53-yard net). Davis's returns set up the Bills in Patriots territory on their first two scoring drives, where they needed 42 and 45 yards to score touchdowns. On the flip side, WR Kyle Williams had a 60-yard return wiped out by a holding call. In a big game like this, the field position battle is critical, and the Bills won it as well.
5. Patriots Run Defense Continues to Slump in Sunday's Game
As mentioned, the Bills have one of the league's best rushing attacks, so we didn't come into this one expecting the Patriots to shut down Cook and company. However, with injuries catching up to them, New England hasn't defended the run well of late. On Sunday, Cook racked up 107 rushing yards (101 yards after contact) on 22 carries and two touchdowns, with Buffalo posting a 48% rushing success rate (74th percentile). Since Week 10, New England is last in rush success rate allowed (53.3%).
Obviously, the hope is that the Patriots will get a healthy Milton Williams and Robert Spillane back for the stretch run, with Williams eligible to return in Week 17 vs. the Jets. With those two healthy, the Pats defense was fifth in the NFL in rush success allowed (36.2%). However, the personnel that played the Bills this week will mostly be the same group trying to stop Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry next week in Baltimore.
6. Patriots Offensive Line Holds Bills Defense to 17.2% Pressure Rate in Loss
On Sunday, the Patriots started their fourth different offensive line combination of the season, with rookie Jared Wilson back at left guard following a one-game absence, playing next to backup LT Vederian Lowe. Although there was one nitpick, the Pats O-Line held Buffalo to a 17.2% pressure rate and helped generate a 59% rushing success rate â pretty good. Lowe only surrendered two total pressures, while Wilson allowed one pressure in his return.
However, the lone blemish was that they called a drive with back-to-back penalties, a false start by Lowe, and a hold on RG Mike Onwenu. The Pats drove into Buffalo territory late in the third quarter with some positive plays, including a 16-yard completion to WR Stefon Diggs on third down, but the two flags were drive-killers, leading to a Maye arm punt on a 3rd-and-25. Overall, it was a solid performance for the offensive line, which didn't come up as a negative much in Sunday's game, but Maye had the offense moving while protecting a 24-21 lead.
7. Henderson and Stevenson Used in Two-Back Sets, and More on the Rookie RB
Taking a look at the backfield snaps, RB Rhamondre Stevenson technically out-snapped Henderson, with Stevenson getting 34 snaps to Henderson's 25 plays. However, those two were on the field together for eight plays, which skews the numbers a bit. Henderson is clearly the team's best back, but the Patriots are continuing to pick their spots with their rookie, while Stevenson is getting a lot of his work on third down because of his skills in pass protection.
Along with his 65-yard touchdown that we already discussed, Henderson had another 50-plus yard touchdown run in the first half, showing off his game-breaking speed numerous times.
This time, the Pats are blocking one-back power out of a six OL package, where LG Jared Wilson pulls from the backside to the second level of the Bills defense. New England gets great blocks from C Garrett Bradbury (weakside LB) and a combination block from RT Morgan Moses to create the hole. Then, Henderson beats the post-safety by topping out at 20.6 MPH for his third house call of over 50 yards this season â Henderson's home-run speed is special.
8. Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte Lead the Patriots in WR Snaps
Lastly, Hollins (40) and Boutte (38) got the most snaps at wide receiver for the Patriots on Sunday. Boutte had a great 30-yard catch on the Pats opening drive, running down a deep ball from Maye by finishing through contact while somehow staying in bounds. Although he was third in receiver snaps, Diggs caught a key third-down conversion in the second half, running away from man coverage for a 16-yard completion on a crosser. After the game, TE Hunter Henry, who ran 19 routes but only caught one pass, lamented a third-down incompletion late in the game. From this perspective, the ball was thrown behind him, causing a tricky adjustment.
It would've been much more fitting for the Patriots to claim the AFC East by knocking off the Bills on Sunday. Instead, Sunday will serve as a good wakeup call about playing a full 60 minutes, and will put this team's mettle to the test to finish what they started in the coming weeks.
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DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer









































