Foxborough, MA â The Patriots pulled away in the second half to end the regular season in style with a 38-10 victory over the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
Although we'll discuss the "nap" the Patriots took in the second quarter, Sunday's win followed a familiar formula for New England as many of their wins this season. After letting the Dolphins hang around in the first half, New England took a 17-10 lead into halftime. Then, a red-zone interception sparked a run of 24 unanswered points to take a commanding lead that the Patriots never relinquished.
Next week, the Patriots will host the No. 7 seed, the Los Angeles Chargers, in the Wild Card round on Sunday night. We've repeatedly given head coach Mike Vrabel's team credit for a terrific turnaround, going from a four-win side in the 2024 season to a 14-win playoff team this season. When Vrabel was introduced as Patriots head coach, he sought to win the AFC East and host home playoff games: mission accomplished. To that end, Vrabel opened up about how the Patriots became the first team in NFL history to win 14 games after losing 13 the year before.
"We got the right guys in the building at the right time, and we got good quarterback play. We figured out how to not beat ourselves," Vrabel said. "When you chase wins, usually the production comes along with it, so we need to focus on winning and the efforts that are going to help us win, and in turn you end up with all the plays that you're going to need, and I think you saw that."
The next box Vrabel wants to check is competing for championships. To do so, the Patriots will need to play complete games for four quarters. As for the second-quarter nap on Sunday, the Patriots offense went three-and-out, turnover on downs, and then New England had its first field goal blocked of the season to take points off the board. Miami put together a 10-play touchdown drive in the second quarter and then kicked a field goal off the blocked Patriots field goal, making it a 10-3 quarter in Miami's favor. If it wasn't for an impressive 30-second drill that got New England into field goal range late in the first half, it would've been all Dolphins in the second frame, leaving the fans at Gillette Stadium restless.
Starting next week, the Patriots have to avoid taking naps against the stiffer competition they'll face in the postseason. That said, we can take one more week to relish in one helluva turnaround by Vrabel, QB Drake Maye, and the rest of the team before we start discussing the playoffs. Barring a total postseason collapse, this season was a resounding success for the Vrabel regime.
Here are eight takeaways as the Patriots end the regular season with an outstanding 14-3 record â we're on to the playoffs, folks.
1. Player of the Game: RB Rhamondre Stevenson Rolls for 153 Scrimmage Yards and Three Touchdowns in Win Over Dolphins
With the Patriots veteran finishing the season strong, Stevenson delivered an excellent all-around performance in Sunday's win over the Dolphins.
Stevenson had gains of 56, 35 (TD), 20, and 15 yards (TD) in his best performance of the season. He did it all, from explosive plays to gaining yards after contact, with the Pats RB gaining 22.8 yards after contact, turning a tackle for loss into a 20-yard gain on a 3rd-and-1 run in the third quarter. Then, he showed off his versatile skill set when Maye and Stevenson connected on a 15-yard touchdown pass.
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After he moved the chains with an impressive short-yardage run, the Patriots went into an empty formation with Stevenson flexed out wide on a 3rd-and-3. Miami matched the five-wide formation with man coverage, leaving LB Tyrel Dodson on Stevenson. Stevenson gave Dodson a fake to the slant and then ran past the Dolphins linebacker on a double move, Stevenson's second touchdown grab in as many weeks.
The Patriots running back then put his team up three scores with a great rep of two-back power from the I-Formation. With the fullback in the backfield, the Pats wrap the backside guard around (RG Mike Onwenu), LG Ben Brown blocks down, jumbo TE Thayer Munford kicks out the edge, and LT Will Campbell climbs to the second level. The entire O-Line does its job, and Stevenson takes care of the rest to beat the deep safety for a 35-yard TD.
As the head coach said after the game, having an effective rushing attack will be critical in the playoffs. Stevenson has it going at the best possible time, while RB TreVeyon Henderson is a great complement, with the rookie adding two touchdowns to bring his season total to 10. New England's thunder-and-lightning combination in the run game is built for January football.
2. QB Drake Maye Caps Off MVP-Caliber Season with Efficient Performance vs. Dolphins
In his last performance that will count for NFL Most Valuable Player voting, Maye was his efficient self once again in the Patriots blowout win over the Dolphins on Sunday.
Maye finished the game 14-of-18 for 191 passing yards and a passing touchdown, while adding 41 rushing yards on five attempts. Maye added +0.50 expected points per drop-back (93rd percentile), and it was Maye's sixth performance this season where he averaged over 10 yards per pass attempt (10.6). All season long, Maye's efficiency has been off the charts.
On Sunday, Maye was moving around the pocket with the Patriots playing 87% of his drop-backs in zone coverage. Maye's ability to impact the game with his mobility, whether that's by scrambling or extending plays, will be huge in the postseason. For example, the Dolphins played two-man coverage, man coverage underneath two deep safeties, the same strategy Buffalo used in the second half in Week 15. Moving forward, one would expect the Pats playoff opponents to copy the Bills plan.
In this play, the Patriots run an unders concept to Maye's left, where WR Kayshon Boutte and TE Hunter Henry run shallow in-breakers against Miami's man coverage. The Dolphins cover the down well, but Maye is able to break a sack attempt in the pocket and moves the chains with a 7-yard scramble.
Maye's pocket movement showed up several times in this game, with him stepping through the middle of the pocket to find WR Stefon Diggs for a 34-yard completion above. This time, the Pats are running one of their staples, with the double posts to Maye's right clearing out the coverage for Diggs to run the backside crosser from the one-receiver side. Diggs fills in underneath the Tampa-2 player, who had fallen deep into the cover-two zone, and settles into the soft spot in the zone to eclipse 1,000 yards on the season (Diggs: 85 catches, 1,013 receiving yards, four touchdowns in his first season with the Patriots).
With opposing defenses trying to take away the deep ball from Maye, who only had one deep-pass attempt in Sunday's win, the Patriots will continue to see plenty of two-high safety coverages in the postseason. If teams keep playing two-man, Maye could run them out of playing two-deep safeties, where there isn't a defender underneath to contain the quarterback.
3. Standout DT Milton Williams Makes Immediate Impact in Return From Injured Reserve
With the roster getting healthier just in time for the playoffs, standout DT Milton Williams returned after a five-game absence to help lead the Patriots defense in Sunday's win.
Although he only registered on the stat sheet with a tackle for loss, Williams' impact was felt in his 26 snaps. In the pass rush, Williams drew seven double teams, including drawing multiple blockers when the line slid toward him on DT Christian Barmore's sack in the second quarter. Williams also beat Dolphins RG Cole Strange to factor into a huge stuff on third-and-short, freeing up his teammates for advantageous matchups on the defensive line.
During his five-game stint on injured reserve, the Patriots run defense went into a slump, ranking 30th in rush EPA allowed over that span. On Sunday, New England held Miami to -0.42 EPA per rush attempt, their best performance against the run of the season, albeit with the Dolphins down star RB De'Von Achane (shoulder). Speaking to reporters after the game, Williams discussed how he felt in his return on Sunday.
"I felt good being back out there. Sitting on the couch, it's garbage. I ain't gonna lie. So, just being back out there with my guys, man, it's the best," Williams said. "A little rusty, but it was just good to put my hands on somebody and run around a little bit at game speed. I felt good out there."
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The Patriots star defensive tackle admitted that his ankle was a little sore after the game and said it'll be something he'll have to manage the rest of the season. However, when asked if he feels prepared for the postseason, Williams had a simple answer: "Yeah, I'm ready."
Next week, the Patriots will face a Chargers offense that came into the week ranked 24th in rush EPA, 31st in run-blocking win rate, and last in pass-blocking win rate. With their DT tandem of Barmore and Williams healthy again, New England's defense is in good shape to exploit a weakness in Los Angeles's offense.
4. Rookie LT Will Campbell Returns to O-Line in Sunday's Regular-Season Finale
Along with Williams returning to the defensive line, the Patriots offensive line also got a huge boost from the return of standout rookie LT Will Campbell in Sunday's win.
Campbell returned from a knee sprain that caused him to miss the Patriots last four games, allowing just one quarterback pressure in his 43 snaps vs. the Dolphins. Campbell mostly went up against Dolphins edge rusher Bradley Chubb, who came into the game with a team-high 8.5 sacks. On Sunday, Campbell held Chubb in check and also helped spring Stevenson on his 35-yard touchdown run with a 'plus' block at the second level of the defense.
As for the rest of the O-Line, the Patriots mostly held the Dolphins pass rush in check, with Maye under pressure on a manageable 30.4% of his drop-backs. The lone blemish was another late-down stuffed run, with the Pats failing to convert a 4th-and-1 in the second quarter.
The Patriots ran a tricky formation on the fourth-down attempt with WR DeMario Douglas deep in the backfield and Henderson as the up-back in a full house formation. Douglas is there as eye candy on a potential pitch out of the backside, which does draw a defender out of the box, but the Dolphins still have numbers to the play-side while jumbo TE Thayer Munford misses his block. Miami played the run well, but the Patriots also didn't execute on the failed fourth down.
New England is ranked 28th in short-yardage rushing success, something that could come back to hurt them in the postseason if they can't grind out tough yards to move the chains.
5. Patriots Use Nine Different Personnel Groupings in Sunday's Win Over Dolphins
The Patriots continued to shuffle through several personnel groupings this week, with their nine different groupings being the second-most in a game this season. Without versatile WR Mack Hollins (IR), the Pats are finding unique ways to run the ball. On Sunday, they played 17 snaps with six offensive linemen on the field, and 43 of their 71 plays featured three receivers (60.6%). The bigger personnel groupings featuring an extra offensive lineman, multiple tight ends, or FB Jack Westover are working.
In Week 18, the Pats added +0.17 EPA per play when they had fewer than three receivers on the field, with three explosive runs. Plus, OC Josh McDaniels dusted off a flea-flicker out of a big personnel package for a 35-yard gain to WR Efton Chism III. Without Hollins' size to handle more rigorous blocking responsibilities, one would expect the Patriots to continue featuring heavy personnel groupings to get their best blockers on the field.
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6. Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte Leads All Wideouts in Snaps in Return to Lineup
The last of the banged-up Patriots to return to the lineup this week was WR Kayshon Boutte, who had a team-high 33 snaps among wide receivers. Boutte caught two of his four targets, including catching a 13-yard out in the Pats field goal drive before the half. As for the rest of the wide receiver room, here were their snap counts: Diggs (26), Williams (25), Chism (24), Douglas (13). Chism continues to play as an early-down blocker in the Pats run formations, while Douglas played eight of his 13 snaps on late downs. From this perspective, New England will need Douglas' separation ability as teams are likely to play more man coverage in the postseason.
7. Patriots Defense's Slower Start vs. Dolphins Wasn't Surprising on Sunday
The commentary after this game is bound to include some concerns about the Patriots defense, which started slowly again, as Miami drove into scoring territory on its first two possessions. In their opening script, the Dolphins were gaining 5.5 yards per play on 22 plays for 122 total yards, last scrimmaging on the New England 8-yard line (downs) and the 2-yard line (TD).
Although it could've been a better start, we discussed all week that the Dolphins offense was humming in first halves since QB Quinn Ewers took over, likely due to HC Mike McDaniel's opening script. With Ewers starting over the last two weeks, Miami led the league in yards per play (7.9) and was third in EPA per play (+0.35) in the first half in Weeks 16-17, and we all know the Patriots defense tends to start slower before they settle down as the game wears on.
As we wrote in our game preview earlier this week, the fast-starting Dolphins offense was a tricky matchup for the "wait for the game declare" Patriots defense. With that said, Miami was down star playmakers De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle, so they weren't at full strength. For that reason, it would've been nice to see the Pats defense shut it down earlier. Still, it's not surprising that the Miami offense had the upper hand for the first few drives. It's also not surprising that the Patriots defense held Miami to -0.89 EPA per play with two takeaways and four sacks in the Dolphins last 27 plays because Miami fades in the second half.
Until it burns them in a playoff loss, the Patriots tendency to ease into games defensively before leveling off is just who they are, so we aren't going to overreact to this one.
8. Patriots Allow First Blocked Kick of the 2025 Season, Borregales Bounces Back
As for the Patriots special teams, there has been a noticeable uptick in blocked field goals in the NFL this season. To this point, the Pats weren't one of the teams to have a field goal blocked, but that ended when rookie K Andy Borregales' second-quarter field goal attempt was blocked by the Dolphins. From this perspective, it appeared that DT Zach Sieler slipped through OL Brenden Jaimes and OT Vederian Lowe's gap on the block. After the game, Vrabel admitted to being most disappointed about the blocked kick.
"I'm just frustrated with the blocked field goal. We went all 17 weeks, and all we did was become the 38th or 39th blocked field goal in the NFL this year," Vrabel said, while discussing the thin margin of error in the NFL playoffs.
To the field goal operations credit, Borregales bounced back with a 59-yard field goal before halftime, which gave the Patriots a 17-10 lead. P Bryce Baringer also had a 56-yard boot with a 54-yard net thanks to some good punt coverage, and the Pats held Dolphins returner Malik Washington to two 27-yard kickoff returns. So, it wasn't all bad in the kicking game.
As QB Drake Maye said after the game, playoff football starts now. The Patriots have put themselves in a position to play in the postseason. Now, it's time to compete for championships.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
