The Patriots are preparing for a matchup that has some added juice with the potential return of Bengals QB Joe Burrow, while New England is also getting healthier after a mini-bye week.
On Friday, the Patriots ruled out LB Jahlani Tavai (personal) due to non-injury related reasons, while RB Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) and LB Harold Landry III (knee) are questionable for Sunday's game. WR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), TE Austin Hooper (concussion), and LB Christian Elliss (hip) should be good to go. For the Bengals, Burrow is officially questionable after being a limited participant in Friday's practice, while top pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson (hip/pelvis) and starting CB Cam Taylor-Britt (foot) are ruled out on Cincinnati's final injury report. Bengals star WR Ja'Marr Chase will also not play vs. the Patriots due to a one-game suspension.
Starting with the Patriots offense, the good news is that WR Kayshon Boutte is expected to return from a hamstring injury following a two-game absence. Boutte was a full participant in practice this week and won't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game – he's good to go. The third-year pro has been New England's starting 'X' receiver and primary deep threat, playing a team-high 322 snaps (88.2%) as an outside receiver.
This season, New England's passing efficiency more than doubles with Boutte on the field (+0.52 EPA per play) compared to when Boutte isn't on the field (+0.24 EPA per play). Although the Pats were able to overcome his absence with WR Mack Hollins and rookie Kyle Williams, Boutte's talent and chemistry with QB Drake Maye are evident, with the Pats wideout leading the team with six catches on passes over 20 air yards.
Now that Boutte is returning to the lineup, one would expect the Patriots to distribute snaps at wide receiver similarly to how they did before his hamstring injury. Hollins and WR Stefon Diggs will continue to have huge roles alongside Boutte, while WR DeMario Douglas will be a pass-game specialist, and Williams will have a smaller role where the speedy rookie can be utilized to stretch the field. It's been good to see Hollins and Williams step up, but having everyone healthy for the stretch run is important as well.
At running back, Rhamondre Stevenson appears on track to return from his toe injury that has caused him to miss the last three games. Although he'll carry a questionable designation, head coach Mike Vrabel said, "I would say there wasn't many restrictions and that he responded well to the practice. I would say that as long as there are not any setbacks here, he'd be in line to play," when asked about Stevenson on Friday.
During his absence, rookie TreVeyon Henderson broke out, with five total touchdowns over his last two games. Henderson averaged 5.6 yards per rush in that three-game span, while also being one of four running backs this season to average over 4.0 yards after contact on his 100 rush attempts. The second-rounder has flashed in multiple ways, including two long touchdowns in a win over the Bucs and three red-zone scores in last Thursday night's victory against the Jets.
Although the rookie will continue to be a large part of the offense, Henderson's 82.1% snap rate in the last three games without Stevenson doesn't feel sustainable. Ideally, the Pats running back duo becomes a one-two punch where the 227-pound Stevenson is more of the downhill bruiser and the 202-pound Henderson is the speed back, like how the Lions use running backs Jahmyr Gibbs (61.5% of snaps) and David Montgomery (40.9%). On Wednesday, head coach Mike Vrabel shed some light on how the Patriots will divvy up the snaps at running back.
"We'll probably have to have that conversation when it's certain that we're going to have Rhamondre," Vrabel said. "TreVeyon's helped us, Rhamondre's helped us, Terrell [Jennings]'s helped us. Disappointed that D'Ernest [Johnson] couldn't have a couple more carries. We gained some good yards on whatever they thought was a holding penalty and go from there. So, we'll try to have them all help us, but it's been good to see TreVeyon continue to run hard, take care of the football and everything else."
Next, the Patriots will get veteran TE Austin Hooper back from a concussion. Last week, Hooper missed the Thursday nighter vs. the Jets. Without the veteran tight end in Week 11, New England mixed and matched personnel to replace Hooper, who is a regular contributor (55.8% snap rate). The Pats played a season-high 11 snaps with six offensive linemen, replacing some of Hooper's blocking with C Ben Brown as a jumbo tight end.
Earlier this week, the Patriots also signed undrafted rookie TE CJ Dippre to the 53-man roster from the practice squad. Dippre is a 6-5, 256-pound blocking tight end, who could have a role as a blocker in heavy groupings or short-yardage packages. Although Dippre might've been signed to protect him from being poached by other teams looking to add tight end depth, it's also possible that he could have a role as an in-line blocker.
With help on the way for the Patriots offense, captain Harold Landry is the other questionable Patriot for Sunday's game with a knee injury. Landry has started all 11 games for the Patriots at outside linebacker, typically rushing over the right tackle. The veteran edge rusher is tied with the team lead with 41 total pressures to go along with 5.5 sacks. If he can't go, New England will likely rely on undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder and veteran Anfernee Jennings at outside linebacker. The team also signed rookie pass-rusher Bradyn Swinson to the 53-man roster earlier this week, so the fifth-rounder is another depth option.
The good news for the Patriots defense is LB Christian Elliss (hip) and DL Joshua Farmer (ankle) are expected to return this week. In his stead, Jack Gibbens has filled in nicely for Elliss in the linebacker spot next to captain Robert Spillane, logging 12 tackles and five stops over the last two games. However, Elliss is a contributor on defense and special teams, and it's worth noting that the Pats run defense has been more leaky in the two games without Elliss.
Along the defensive line, having Farmer back would give the Patriots another layer of depth to replace standout DT Milton Williams (ankle). Williams will miss at least the next four games due to a high-ankle sprain and is now on injured reserve, leaving a huge void in the defensive line. The expectation here is that NT Khyiris Tonga, DT Cory Durden and Farmer will combine to replace the snaps left behind by Williams, while DT Christian Barmore is put in more three-technique alignments outside the guard to rush the passer, which was Williams' role.
With their star interior rusher in the lineup, the Patriots rank 10th in pressure rate this season (35.7%), but New England has the fourth-highest differential between pressure rate while blitzing (48.5%) compared to when they don't bring extra rushers (31.5%). The Pats four-man pass rush is generating pressure at the 18th-highest rate in the NFL. This is a long-winded way of saying this: Can the Patriots generate pressure with a four-man pass rush without a healthy Williams?
New England's ability to pressure whoever is at quarterback for the Bengals will be critical, but pressure without blitzing will be even more important if it's Burrow at QB. According to reports, Burrow was targeting a return on Thanksgiving night against the Ravens, but the two-time Pro Bowler is pushing to return a week early. Based on reports from Bengals practice, it appears that Burrow has a real chance to play on Sunday. With the Patriots traveling to Cincy on Saturday, the Bengals have until 4 p.m. ET on Saturday to active Burrow from injured reserve.
The Patriots and Bengals then square off at Paycor Stadium with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
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