New England is preparing for a huge divisional showdown with the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, where a win would clinch the AFC East for the Patriots.
After having a late bye in Week 14, the good news is that the Patriots roster is getting healthier for the stretch run and arguably the biggest home game in nearly four years. On Friday, the Patriots listed only two players with game statuses: RB Terrell Jennings (concussion) was ruled out, and LB Robert Spillane (foot) is officially questionable. Buffalo listed CB Christian Benford (toe), LB Terrell Bernard (elbow), and WR Joshua Palmer (ankle) as questionable. DE Joey Bosa (hamstring/wrist) and RT Spencer Brown (shoulder) will play for the Bills on Sunday.
Starting on offense, the bye week did some good for starting LG Jared Wilson, who missed a Week 13 win over the Giants due to an ankle injury. Wilson injured his ankle early in the first quarter of the Patriots victory in Cincinnati in Week 12, playing just three snaps vs. the Bengals, and then sat out the game against New York heading into the bye. The third-round rookie has started 11 games at left guard in his first season, flashing his high-end athleticism on the move in the run game, and was starting to find a groove in pass protection. In his last two full games prior to the injury, Wilson had allowed just one total pressure vs. the Bucs and Jets.
Based on media access at Patriots practice, it seems as though Wilson will be reinserted into the starting lineup on Sunday after participating fully in all three sessions this week. With the rookie guard expected back in the starting lineup, the Patriots could start their fourth different offensive line combination through 14 games: LT Vederian Lowe, LG Jared Wilson, C Garrett Bradbury, RG Mike Onwenu, and RT Morgan Moses. Although injuries to their rookie starters on the left side have led to some shuffling, New England started 11 different line combinations during the 2024 season, so they've still had great continuity on the O-Line, comparatively speaking.
The other injury-related topic worth discussing offensively is who will serve as the Patriots third running back this week. With Jennings (concussion) ruled out, New England only has two healthy backs on the active roster, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. On the practice squad, RB D'Ernest Johnson has already hit the maximum of three standard elevations, but head coach Mike Vrabel said Johnson will be moved to the active roster. The Patriots will need to make room on the 53-man roster for Johnson, with that move likely coming on Saturday.
Moving over to the other side of the ball, the positive injury update for the Patriots defense is that NT Khyiris Tonga is trending toward a return. Tonga also sat out the Giants game after suffering a chest injury Week 12 in Cincinnati. This week, the big nose tackle was a full participant in practice, while telling reporters that he "feels good" coming off some extra rest. Tonga is a huge part of New England's run defense and plays a small role on offense as a lead-blocker in short-yardage situations, which could help the Patriots slumping red zone offense.
New England's run defense has been very stingy with Tonga, allowing -0.10 expected points added with its 335-pound nose tackle on the field. When he hasn't been available, the Patriots run defense is allowing an even 0.0 EPA per rush – a +0.10 EPA difference in favor of the offense, which is substantial. The Bills enter the week ranked seventh in rush EPA, led by star RB James Cook, who in many ways has become the engine of Buffalo's offense. Although most start with slowing down MVP quarterback Josh Allen, limiting Cook is arguably just as important.
Before the bye week, the Patriots run defense was slumping, ranking last in rushing success rate allowed in their previous four games (53.3%). Tonga's return and the rest of New England's defensive front getting some much-needed rest during the bye week will hopefully see the run defense return to form. In the first nine weeks, the Patriots ranked fifth in rushing success rate allowed (36.2%), so it's possible that the slump was just injury and lack-of-rest-related.
As for Spillane, the Patriots captain is dealing with a foot injury that led to him being a limited participant in the last two practices. Spillane only played 69.1% of the defensive snaps, a smaller workload than usual, in New England's last game before its bye week vs. the Giants. If he's limited again this week, the Pats leaned more on Jack Gibbens alongside Christian Elliss at linebacker.
Lastly, captain Harold Landry III continues to manage a lingering knee injury stemming from an injury scare during New England's Week 6 win against the Saints. Landry returned to Friday's practice after being limited on Wednesday and a non-participant on Thursday. He won't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game, so hopefully that signals the bye week did Landry some good. The Patriots have relied on undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder and vet Anfernee Jennings as depth on the edge.
By starting the season 11-2, the Patriots have played their way into an incredible opportunity to clinch the AFC East with a win over the Bills on Sunday. Buffalo has won the division for five consecutive seasons, dating back to 2020, but New England has a very simple playoff clinching scenario this week: win, and you're division champs. To claim the AFC East title on their own terms would be a massive accomplishment for head coach Mike Vrabel and company.
The Patriots host the Bills with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
