The Patriots are preparing for a primetime showdown with the NFL's most valuable player in Buffalo on Sunday night, and the Pats defense could be short-handed vs. Bills QB Josh Allen.
On Friday, the Patriots listed defenders DT Milton Williams (ankle), CB Carlton Davis III (illness), OLB K'Lavon Chaisson (knee), and LB Jahlani Tavai (calf) as questionable for Sunday night's matchup in Buffalo. As for Buffalo, the Bills ruled out LB Dorian Williams (knee) and CB Dorian Strong (neck). Bills starting RT Spencer Brown (calf), DT Ed Oliver (ankle), DT T.J. Sanders (knee) and LB Matt Milano (pectoral) are all officially questionable.
Starting with the Patriots defensive tackle, Williams first appeared on the team's injury report with an ankle injury as a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. Then, Williams didn't participate in Thursday's session, which typically focuses on third-down prep, before being limited once again on Friday. The good news is that Williams returned for Friday's practice, while multiple reports indicate it's not a significant ankle injury for Williams.
According to ESPN Analytics, Williams is second among defensive tackles with a 19.2% pass-rush win rate. After signing with New England in free agency last offseason, Williams has more than lived up to the lucrative four-year contract he received from the Patriots in March. Along with stud DT Christian Barmore, Williams has anchored the Patriots defensive line, which ranks in the top-10 in both pass-rush win rate (10th) and run-stop win rate (fifth).
If he can't play or is limited on Sunday night, New England will likely try to replace Williams by committee. The Pats have gotten strong play from NT Khyiris Tonga this season, who played 38.7% of the defensive snaps in the first four weeks. Given that the Bills are the top-rated rushing offense in expected points added (EPA), Tonga will likely have a large role in the game plan. The Pats might need to lean more on rookie DT Joshua Farmer or DT Corey Durden on early downs in their run-stopping defensive fronts. Durden had two run stuffs last week, while Farmer's playing strength at the point of attack has caught the eye on film.
In the pass rush, the Patriots could give some interior rushes to third-year DE Keion White. Due to having Barmore and Williams inside, White has played most of his snaps on the edge this season. However, White is an effective rusher over the guards in passing situations. Last season, White logged 32 total pressures and led all qualified defenders in pressure rate while rushing as a defensive tackle (16.2%).
Next, Patriots starting edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson has been managing a knee injury, sitting out two of the three practices this week. Chaisson played in the team's Week 4 win over the Panthers, registering a sack, four total pressures, and a run stuff. Since he played 34 snaps a week ago, Chaisson could play through the injury, with White and EDGE Anfernee Jennings as options to rotate with Chaisson.
The last piece to the puzzle on defense comes in the secondary with starting CB Carlton Davis III dealing with an illness this week. Davis has played 91.4% of the defensive snaps, with All-Pro CB Christian Gonzalez joining him last week to give the Patriots the tandem they envisioned in the offseason. Hopefully, they can continue to build on that this week. If the Pats starting corner can't play, Charles Woods and Alex Austin would be next man up at outside cornerback opposite Gonzalez.
Moving over to the offense, the good news is QB Drake Maye and his supporting cast are healthy heading into Sunday night's game, where scoring is a must to keep pace with Buffalo.
The one question is who will start at left guard. In the first three games, New England rolled with an all-rookie left side that featured No. 4 overall pick Will Campbell (LT) and third-rounder Jared Wilson (LG). Wilson missed last week's game due to ankle and knee injuries, but is good to go this week. Like any rookie, Wilson's had some ups and downs, but there were flashes of improvement in picking up post-snap line movement (stunts), and Wilson is an athletic blocker in the run game. The Georgia product's development as a long-term starter on the interior is also a worthy investment.
Although their rookie left guard is fully healthy, third-year pro Ben Brown filled in nicely for Wilson last week. Brown had several standout run and screen blocks, paving the way for a pair of goal-line touchdowns. The veteran allowed two hurries in pass protection, but it was a positive showing for Brown. During his Friday afternoon press conference, head coach Mike Vrabel was asked who would be his starting left guard on Sunday.
"As of right now, the plan is to start Jared [Wilson] and continue that development there on the left side," Vrabel said. "If we need Ben [Brown] or we need Vederian [Lowe] or we need Marcus [Bryant], those guys are ready to step in there and perform in the game like Ben did last week."
Lastly, the Patriots could make roster moves ahead of Sunday night's contest. New England might elevate special-teamer Darius Harris from the practice squad again this week, while LB Jahlani Tavai could be activated off injured reserve. Tavai (calf) has been a full participant in practice as he nears a return. Tavai, who was best as a hybrid linebacker/edge defender playing off a traditional middle linebacker like Robert Spillane, would theoretically be back in that role. We'll have an update on New England's roster moves upon arrival in Buffalo on Saturday.
The Patriots will visit the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park with kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday night.
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