The Patriots head to Buffalo for their biggest challenge of the season in Week 5, a Sunday Night Football divisional matchup that will have a national audience.
The Bills are 4-0, averaging over 33 points per game, and feature the league's top rushing attack and one of the most efficient and dangerous quarterbacks in football. Buffalo has won the AFC East five straight times and once again look like one of the best teams in the NFL.
The Patriots were the last team other than Buffalo to win the division and are trending upward after a 2-2 start. New England struggled mightily against the Bills early in Josh Allen's career, including a 47-17 playoff blowout in 2021, but recent contests over the last two seasons have been more competitive, with the Pats getting wins in both 2023 and 2024 and holding up for two narrow defeats by an average margin of 4.5 points.
Last week, New England raced to a confidence-building win over Carolina, but they'll need their most complete effort yet to hang with Josh Allen and company again.
Here are the three things to watch most closely.
1. Can the Patriots Stop James Cook?
James Cook is off to a monster start: 401 rushing yards (2nd in the NFL), 5.3 yards per carry, five rushing touchdowns, and a league-leading 21 rushing first downs. The Bills lead the NFL in rush attempts (132), rushing yards (683), and rushing touchdowns (eight).
The Patriots run defense has been statistically strong: 2nd in rushing yards allowed, 2nd in yards per attempt, 7th in rush EPA, and 5th in run stop win rate. But this is their biggest test yet. New England plays nickel on 72% of snaps, the 4th-highest rate in the league, and stopping Cook with a lighter box will be critical to keeping Josh Allen and his weapons contained.
Kyle Dugger and Marte Mapu could be called on for expanded roles to help in the box against Cook and matching up with Buffalo's tight ends. If the Patriots can slow Cook without overcommitting, they'll have a shot to disrupt the Bills' rhythm.
2. Containing Josh Allen
Allen is already in MVP form: 964 passing yards, 10 total touchdowns, and just 1 turnover through four games. He's faced the lowest pressure rate in the NFL (21.7%), and has spread the ball around to his receivers, tight ends and backs, with five different players having 10 or more catches.
The Patriots rank 13th in pressure rate (23.1%), led by Christian Barmore and Milton Williams, and have shown they can get home with four. But Allen is a different beast, one not easy to pressure and even harder to get to the ground. With Christian Gonzalez healthy, the Patriots could get aggressive, but they'll need to disguise coverages and mix in zone to keep Allen guessing.
New England's defensive approach has spun the dial with coverages over the first four games and should continue to do so in Buffalo. But the core of the approach should be aggression and a willingness to force the issue early and often. Allen will make plays, but the Patriots should be able to make some of their own as well.
Buffalo's offense has turned the ball over just once and ranks top 5 in EPA/play, 3rd in scoring (33.3 PPG), and 2nd in total yards. This is a massive test for a Patriots defense that ranks 28th in overall DVOA despite strong run metrics.
3. Drake Maye's Biggest Test Yet
Drake Maye is coming off his best performance yet, and he's now thrown for 988 yards, seven touchdowns, and just two interceptions through four games. He also leads the league in completion percentage, as the second-year quarterback's assimilation into Josh McDaniels' offense looks to be going smoothly.
Last year, Maye led the Patriots to a hot start in Buffalo with two early touchdown drives, but the offense then stalled until the final minutes. Three punts and three turnovers in the middle of the game let the Bills pull away and quell any upset fantasies.
This time, Maye has Stefon Diggs, who's coming off his first 100-yard game as a Patriot and returns to Buffalo, where he played for four seasons, with plenty to prove. The Patriots offense ranks 10th in points (25.5 PPG) and has been balanced, and they'll need every bit of that balance to keep the Bills on their heels.
Buffalo's defense plays mostly zone and ranks 12th in pressure rate, 18th in EPA/play, and 21st in DVOA. Injuries to Ed Oliver and Matt Milano have hurt, but the unit is still opportunistic, and Oliver and Milano are possibilities to return to action this weekend. Maye must stay turnover-free and efficient, especially on third down, to give New England a chance to keep pace with Allen's attack.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
