It had been three years, eight months, and 26 days since the Patriots scored 40-plus points in a game when New England trounced the Panthers in a 42-13 win last Sunday at Gillette Stadium.

Following one of their best all-around performances in years, the Patriots are flying high after scoring 35 points on offense in just three quarters vs. Carolina last week. Second-year QB Drake Maye is trending toward superstardom as the fourth-ranked passer in expected points added (EPA) and the 11th-rated quarterback in ESPN's total QBR metric, playing winning football in an offense that continues to innovate around him.

Understandably, the vibes are high. However, a little dose of reality is that the Patriots are 2-2. It's a good start in their first month under head coach Mike Vrabel, but there's still a long way to go. Furthermore, the Pats haven't exactly faced a gauntlet in their opening slate, playing teams that rank 23rd, 28th, 16th, and 27th in team DVOA through the first four weeks of the season – well, the competition is about to get tougher.

The litmus test that the Patriots are about to have vs. the Bills in Orchard Park, where Buffalo has won 14-straight games, on Sunday night, is one everyone should embrace. New England appears good enough to "take advantage of bad football" by winning games vs. the Dolphins and Panthers of the world, which gives them a chance to have a competitive season. But we are all wondering this: how good are the Patriots, really?

Before we start talking about the Bills, let's go down memory lane back to Vrabel's first season as a player for the Patriots. After opening the season 5-4 thanks to a little bump from a quarterback named Tom Brady, the Patriots had a primetime matchup on the docket against the Greatest Show on Turf: the reigning Super Bowl champion St. Louis Rams. The Rams came to the old Foxboro Stadium with a 7-1 record, poised to repeat as champs with as potent an offense as the NFL had ever seen.

On that mild November night, the Patriots hung with the Rams, even holding a first-half lead thanks to a Terrell Buckley pick-six and a 33-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri that gave New England an early advantage. The Rams would eventually take a two-score lead, but Brady led the offense down the field in five plays, trailing 24-10 in the fourth quarter: a 15-yarder to Brown, a 27-yarder to Patten, and a 10-yard touchdown to Patten made it a one-score game again. Unfortunately, the Patriots offense never saw the ball again. The Rams went on a clock-killing, 14-play drive that chewed up the last 7:46 of the fourth quarter. However, on that November night, the Pats started to believe.

Nobody is suggesting that these Patriots will win out and pull off arguably the greatest upset in NFL history to win the Super Bowl like the 2001 team did. And these Bills aren't the reigning champs (had to remind everyone of that). Still, the moment is similar. Buffalo is an elite team with the NFL's most potent offense, the reigning MVP, and the Bills have won five consecutive AFC East titles. The current Patriots need to start competing with the Bills to get where they want to go. On Sunday Night Football with the whole NFL world watching, the Josh Allen faces off against possibly the next Josh Allen, and the Patriots have an opportunity to make a statement.

Let's break down the schematic chess match between the Patriots and the Bills heading into Sunday night's showdown in Orchard Park.

Patriots Offense vs. Bills Defense: Can the Pats Find a Running Game in Orchard Park?

The Patriots offense is rapidly improving, thanks largely to the Maye-McDaniels tandem, finishing the NFL's opening month tenth in scoring.

Along with their second-year quarterback's progress, the Patriots are getting significantly better pass protection to allow Maye to operate. Some of the pass protection growth is due to scheme, whether it's moving the pocket or helping their tackles with chips/slides. Still, the numbers back it up, and the Patriots upgraded the talent on the offensive line with four new starters: No. 4 overall pick LT Will Campbell, RT Morgan Moses, C Garrett Bradbury, and rookie LG Jared Wilson (Ben Brown started for an injured Wilson in Week 4).

According to Pro Football Focus, the Patriots have the fourth-best pass blocking efficiency in the NFL through four games (87.9%). Their average pressure also comes in 2.88 seconds, the second-best mark in the NFL. Without a doubt, this unit has made positive strides toward keeping Maye clean, which is a huge reason why the Pats passing game is generating the third-most total EPA through four games (+32.9).

However, the one area where the Patriots offense needs to improve is on the ground. New England is last in rush EPA (-0.31) and 31st in the NFL in rushing success rate (29.5%). As the chart above shows, the lack of rushing production has made them slightly one-dimensional. Based on the metrics, the Pats run-blocking has mostly been solid, with New England gaining the fourth-most yards before contact on runs by its running backs (1.3 yards). However, the Pats backs are 27th in the league in generating yards after contact on average (2.7 yards). So, the data would suggest the Patriots need more from the players carrying the football.

On film, the Patriots are majoring in outside zone and duo schemes to sequence keepers (boots) off those run actions. They've occasionally mixed in more gap runs, like power and counter, favoring those more in their win over Carolina. The zone and duo runs are predicated on the backs making the blocking right by cutting based on the positioning of the linebackers into open gaps. Those schemes take time to develop chemistry between the backs and blockers, but more creativity and better vision between the tackles from the ball carriers would help.

This week, the Patriots will face a Bills defensive scheme that has always given the McDaniels offense problems in the passing game. Buffalo has a proven zone-based system under head coach Sean McDermott that disguises at a league-high rate. Changing the picture post-snap has messed with New England's route conversions, even during the Brady years. This season, Buffalo's pass defense ranks eighth in EPA and has allowed the fewest explosive pass plays in the NFL (12).

However, the Bills run defense is vulnerable (28th in rush EPA). Playing without top defenders Matt Milano and Ed Oliver (both returned to practice this week in a limited capacity) in the front seven, the Bills have struggled to stop the run, and McDaniels has had success scheming the run game against Buffalo's 4-3 over base fronts. The Bills major in an Over-G front, which tilts the front toward the strong side of the formation. As a result, it leaves the defense vulnerable to weakside runs if the offense can find ways to get blockers to the backside.

Typically, McDaniels has used his fullback to add a blocker to attack the WILL linebacker. Above, the Pats run a weakside crack-toss play for a 64-yard touchdown. The play-side receiver cracks the end, the play-side tackle pulls to the force defender (CB), and the fullback leads to the weakside linebacker. The Pats also featured other weakside runs like counter and a short-yardage speed-option vs. the Bills in 2021.

Last week, the Saints rushed for 135 yards on 26 attempts by their running backs, averaging 5.2 yards per rush vs. Buffalo. For example, the Saints used a counter-bash option scheme to do the same thing the Patriots did: attack the weakside of the Bills over fronts. Saints QB Spencer Rattler is reading the unblocked defensive end to his left, with GT counter (guard-tackle pulls) flowing to his right. When the end crashes, Rattler gives the ball to Kamara for 18 yards. The Pats ran an identical scheme vs. the Panthers last week, so expect to see it again.

By finding success in the run game, the Saints got easier completions for Rattler in the pass game. Rattler added +0.53 expected points on nine play-action drop-backs, including two scrambles where the Saints quarterback gained a combined 26 rushing yards.

In this clip, the Saints run a similar counter action from under-center, using the blocking scheme to sell run while Rattler keeps the ball on the bootleg. New Orleans sneaks the tight end into the flat, and Rattler has an easy layup that gains 17 yards. Certainly, a scheme that the Patriots could replicate, given how often they've used bootleg concepts this season.

By running the ball effectively, New England is attacking the weakness in the Bills defense and shortening the game, which seems like their best path to victory. As much as the Patriots passing game has improved, you probably don't want to get into a track meet with Bills QB Josh Allen and the No. 2 scoring offense in the NFL. Plus, Buffalo features a simulated pressure package on third down that stresses an offense's ability to sort through potential blitzers, which gave the young Rattler problems.

This week, the goal for the Patriots offense is to remain on schedule and possess the ball to sequence plays off their run game. Getting into a battle of drop-back passing games is not a winning formula for any team against the Bills.

Patriots Defense vs. Bills Offense: Slowing Down Reigning MVP QB Josh Allen & Balanced Buffalo Offense

Moving over to the Bills offense, Buffalo has built a juggernaut around the reigning most valuable player, presenting a scary matchup for any defense.

Buffalo's offense ranks first in total EPA, pass EPA, rush EPA, and second in points per game (33.3) because the Bills mostly allow Allen to be Clark Kent, and only ask him to put his Superman cape on when they absolutely need it. By relying less on Allen bombs and off-script artistry, Buffalo is now the league's most efficient offense, with fewer peaks and valleys because it can move the ball with conventional offense.

Along with Allen refining his game to be a more accurate thrower, Bills OC Joe Brady is the next offensive guru who will likely land a head coaching job after coordinating an Allen-led offense. Brady has evolved Buffalo into the NFL's best rushing attack, using motion and multiple tight end groupings to add running the ball traditionally from under center. In the past, the Bills run game has been Allen-centric, relying on the quarterback's rushing threat to unlock their ground game. Now, Buffalo can play bully ball, with Allen lining up under-center on 44.9% of the Bills offensive plays (fourth-highest under-center rate in the NFL).

For example, here's some Brady play sequencing from last Sunday. Buffalo hit New Orleans multiple times with a two-back power scheme with the fullback in the backfield. Bills RB James Cook is arguably Buffalo's best skill player, and he gashes the Saints for a positive run in the first clip. Then, the Bills ran the same pulling run-action from shotgun, with Cook leaking into the flat with a lead-blocker as a check-down. Lastly, the Bills get under-center again and run the two-back power again. This time, it's a naked boot, and Allen keeps for a 15-yard gain.

The amount of window dressing in the Bills early-down offense is enough to make a defense's head spin, with Buffalo having the league's second-highest motion rate (77.3%). The other dangerous element to the Bills offense is Brady's ability to scheme opportunities to gain yards after the catch. This season, Buffalo leads the NFL in average yards after catch per reception (7.0), generating 12 explosive plays on short passes and passes behind the line of scrimmage. As one would expect, given Allen's arm talent, defenses force the Bills QB to take profits underneath the coverage, so Brady finds different ways to set up YAC plays.

In this clip, the Dolphins appear to be playing man coverage with a split-safety shell over the top to take away the deep part of the field (two-man). Buffalo brings WR Khalil Shakir in motion, where he "orbits" around Allen before releasing into the flat. The motion also indicates to TE Dalton Kincaid that CB Cornell Armstrong has Shakir in man coverage. The Bills get a good block from WR Tyrell Shavers, but it's Kincaid's block on Armstrong that springs Shakir for a 15-yard touchdown.

In theory, turning Allen into a check-down artist, stopping the run, and holding in the red zone would be a wise strategy vs. the Bills offense. But the Bills know that most defenses will try to play that game, so Brady is leaning into it by getting Cook, Shakir, and Buffalo's skill players loose in the open field to hit catch-and-run explosives.

The Patriots could play the long game of ball control on offense while making the Bills march the field on defense, or they could stand in the middle of the ring and come after Allen. They'll lose some rounds by being aggressive, but they might win enough to be competitive. At some point, a defense will press these Bills receivers and make them consistently separate from man coverage. Why not the Patriots? They have the cornerback tandem to do it.

Either way, it'll be fascinating to see how Vrabel game-plans against Allen for the first time as Patriots head coach. Obviously, the Bills are the team standing in New England's way in the AFC East, so having some answers vs. Allen is a must for this new regime.

Key Matchups

LT Will Campbell vs. Bills EDGE Joey Bosa

After pitching a shutout in terms of pressures allowed last week, Campbell will now face veteran edge-rusher Joey Bosa. Bosa is having a bounce-back season with 17 total pressures in the first four games, primarily rushing over the left tackle. Bosa loves his double-swipe move, swatting the tackles' punch to turn a tight corner. K'Lavon Chaisson's double swipe gave Campbell some problems in training camp, so it'll be a good test. RT Morgan Moses also has a challenging matchup with Gregory Rousseau on the right side. This is definitely a step up for Campbell and Mosses compared to the Panthers rushers.

EDGE Harold Landry vs. Bills RT Ryan Van Demark

We'll see how the practice week goes for Bills starting RT Spencer Brown, but Brown missed last week's game due to a calf injury. If he's out again on Sunday, Landry can take advantage of rushing on the Bills backup right tackle, who allowed a sack and three total pressures in Week 4. The Pats need a big game from their defensive line both in the run and pass game, with a potentially juicy matchup for DTs Christian Barmore and Milton Williams against Bills C Connor McGovern and RG O'Cyrus Torrence, who both are weaker in pass protection.

CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Bills WR Khalil Shakir

Last season, the Patriots used their best slot corner, Jonathan Jones, on Shakir, which makes sense given Shakir's yards after the catch ability and Jones's open-field tackling prowess. This coaching staff could see it similarly and put Marcus Jones on Shakir. But, to me, Shakir is the engine of Buffalo's passing game and has earned top billing. Shakir is a tackle-breaking machine, second among receivers with eight forced missed tackles, while the Patriots are 28th in the NFL in missed tackle rate this season (15%). They'll need their best to get Cook and Shakir on the ground.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer