The Patriots are heading on the road for the third consecutive week to a familiar venue for Mike Vrabel, and although that's interesting, it's not all that important, says the Patriots head coach.

Earlier this week, Vrabel dropped that line when asked about his return to Tennessee for a matchup with the Titans, the team he was the head coach of for six seasons. Despite having a 54-45 record with three playoff berths and being named AP Coach of the Year (2021), the Titans moved on from Vrabel following the 2023 season, and have since fired his replacement.

"I think it would file under the category of, is it interesting or important? I would probably say this would be very interesting. But in the end, not very important to our preparation or what we need to continue to try to do to improve as a team," Vrabel said on Monday.

After a Week 6 loss to the Raiders, Tennessee parted ways with head coach Brian Callahan following a 4-19 record over the last season and a half. Callahan was brought in off the Bengals staff as an offensive guru, and then the Titans drafted QB Cam Ward with the first-overall pick in the 2025 draft. Although he's had flashes, Ward and the Titans offense rank last in DVOA and only average 13.8 points per game (31st in the NFL).

Following the decision to move on from Callahan, the Titans named senior offensive assistant Mike McCoy as interim head coach. McCoy was the Chargers head coach from 2013 to 2016, going 27-37 as head coach. Plus, teams who fired their head coach during the season are 17-16 the following week over the last 15 seasons. Since 2022, that record is a more pedestrian 3-6: Darren Rizzi (Saints), Antonio Pierce (Raiders), and Jeff Saturday (Colts) all won their first games as interim head coaches. Recently, the interim bump hasn't been as significant. But teams that fire their head coach in-season occasionally win in this spot, making it a trend worth highlighting.

Between the Titans coaching change and the Patriots playing their third-straight road game, it's another week for Vrabel's program to shine. New England has never won three straight road games during the regular season in franchise history, while the Pats have an opportunity to win four consecutive games for the first time since the 2021 season.

From a football standpoint, the big-picture question for the Titans and future opponents is this: How long will you let Maye and the Patriots passing game go off? In the first six weeks, New England saw single-high safety defenses on a league-high 53.3% of their drop-backs. Typically, defenses play single-high when they don't fear an opponent's downfield passing game and want to get an extra defender in the box to stop the run.

Maye has responded to those defensive structures by ranking first in passing yards (988) and second in EPA per drop-back (+0.35) against single-high safety coverages. We can talk all we want about Maye trending toward being a top-10 quarterback, but the next step is defenses game-planning Maye like an elite quarterback, and in turn, will that open up the Pats struggling run game with fewer defenders in the box? From an Xs and Os perspective, that's when we'll know Maye has arrived, like all the meaningful QB metrics suggest.

On Sunday, the Patriots will play a Titans defense that plays single-high safety coverages on just 34.5% of their drop-backs under defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson (11th-lowest in the NFL). Wilson's defense caused Maye to turn the ball over three times in a 20-17 overtime loss for the Patriots in Tennessee last season. From a growth standpoint, seeing how Maye handles Wilson's system this time will be interesting.

Let's break down the chess match as head coach Mike Vrabel returns to Tennessee to face the Titans on Sunday.

Patriots Offense Key: Learn From the 2024 Matchup for QB Drake Maye vs. the Titans

As is usually the case in the year-to-year NFL, a lot has changed since the last time the Patriots visited the Titans at Nissan Stadium during Maye's rookie season.

On the Patriots side, Maye has a new head coach (Vrabel) and offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels), while his supporting cast has changed significantly. Maye's starting offensive line in Tennessee last season was LT Vederian Lowe, LG Michael Jordan, C Ben Brown, RG Layden Robinson, and RT Mike Onwenu. They've come a long way, with four upgraded OL spots, and Maye now has WR Stefon Diggs catching his passes.

Tennessee also has notable personnel changes, especially in the back-seven, where they're getting good play from newcomers S Xavier Woods and LB Cedric Gray. However, the leaders of the Titans remain the same. Star Jefferey Simmons is having an All-Pro caliber season, leading all defensive tackles in pass-rush win rate, while S Amani Hooker and CB L'Jarius Sneed, who didn't play in this matchup last season due to injury, anchor the secondary. The Titans coaching staff and defensive system is also the same. Former head coach Brian Callahan retained DC Dennard Wilson, who's back calling Tennessee's defense this season.

Before we deep-dive into the chess match, we must talk about Simmons' dominant play. The Titans defensive tackle can take over this game by himself, leading all DTs with 27 total pressures. Simmons dominates with his power, slap-rip, and swim moves, and is effective on stunts. Vrabel knows him well, but Simmons has been the NFL's best defensive tackle through six weeks – he's a game-wrecker that needs four hands on him at all times.

Last season, Maye had some great flashes as a runner and playmaker vs. the Titans. We all remember the scramble drill touchdown at the buzzer to send the game into overtime. Plus, Maye had two big-time throws and rushed for 95 yards on eight attempts. However, the Pats quarterback also had four turnover-worthy plays, turning the ball over three times, including a game-ending interception down three points in OT. Maye finished with a subpar -0.03 EPA per drop-back (37th percentile).

Although he has improved and so has his supporting cast, Wilson's exotic zone coverages sometimes fooled Maye. For example, Maye's first-half interception came on a third-and-long exotic. The Titans show two-high safeties with five rushers on the line of scrimmage before the snap. Then, Tennessee "buzzes" Hooker into the short zone distribution while blitzing the off-ball linebacker and dropping LB Jack Gibbens (now a Patriot) into a short zone. The schemed rush causes pressure, which gets Maye off his spot, while Gibbens' zone drop allows Hooker to leave the inside in-breaker and fall into the passing lane to the outside in-breaker. With the timing thrown off, Hooker makes a good ball-hawking play to step in front of WR Ja'Lynn Polk's route for an interception.

Overall, the Titans played 28 drop-backs or 53.8% of their coverage snaps in cover three. This time, the Pats are in empty, with six rushers threatening to blitz and two high safeties. The Titans fall into a cover-three buzz structure, rotating into a post-safety coverage, and Maye reads the covered side with four Titans defenders covering three receivers. If he opens to the left side, he has more favorable numbers on the hitch-seam (HOSS) two-receiver concept, and might have a chance to rip the seam or take the easy money on the hitch. Instead, Maye's eyes start to his right, and the pocket collapses for a Simmons sack.

The good news is that Maye's post-snap processing has improved, and this Titans pass defense can be had if you see the rotations clearly. The Titans have struggled to defend the seams in their cover-three schemes if you throw into the safety rotation and struggle covering the flats in their two-high safety coverages (cover two or cover six).

Last season, Maye was sharp on his underneath throws against the Titans two-high safety shells. In this example, the Pats are running a "branch" out from the slot with the outside receiver clearing out the corner to that side of the field. The coverage shell sets up a matchup for WR DeMario Douglas against an out-leverage linebacker trying to get out to the flat, creating an easy completion underneath the zone for Maye.

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray hit a 32-yard seam shot into the "buzz" rotation above. The "buzz" term refers to the deep safety that rotates into a short zone from a two-high safety shell. Above, the Cards run a bluff screen out to the flat with the two vertical routes running into the buzz side. With only one deep defender on that side of the field, the seam is wide-open for an explosive play to TE Trey McBride – something the Patriots can replicate. Both completions came out of empty formations, which have been effective vs. the Titans.

As their 25th-ranked defense by DVOA suggests, the Titans run defense is also vulnerable. Offenses are having success running downhill at the Titans, using schemes such as duo, inside zone, counter, power, and lead to bowl over the Tennessee front. The Titans defense has defended outside zone or stretch plays well, but have struggled vs. downhill runs.

With a better supporting cast around him, the only path for the Titans defense to hold Maye down this time is by Wilson spinning the dial like he did against a rookie Maye. The Pats QB has improved at reading coverages, but Wilson will likely put that to the test on Sunday.

Patriots Defense Key: Turn Up the Pressure on QB Cam Ward, Continue Stingy Run Defense

The first sign that things weren't going in the right direction in Tennessee was Callahan giving up play-calling duties to quarterbacks coach Bo Hardagree after a Week 3 loss to the Colts.

As mentioned, Callahan was brought in after five seasons as the Bengals offensive coordinator. To have Callahan surrender the play-calling reins to Hardagree three games into QB Cam Ward's rookie season was not a good omen. That said, Hardagree is a familiar face for Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. He spent one season on former head coach Bill Belichick's staff in New England before following McDaniels to Vegas, where he spent two seasons with the Raiders, including calling plays for nine games as the interim offensive coordinator in 2023.

Since changing the play-caller, the Titans are running more of their offense from under-center in neutral situations (one-score game). They're also mainly running stagnant formations (57.6% motion rate, 28th in NFL) and lead the NFL in three-receiver set usage (78.2%). All of that makes sense to keep things simple and present clear pictures for their young quarterback. When you feature heavy amounts of motions and mix-up personnel groupings, it can be mentally taxing on a rookie.

Overall, the Titans are the 32nd-ranked offense in DVOA and second-to-last in scoring offense (13.8 PPG). Individually, Ward is 34th out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per drop-back (-0.22), 33rd in completion percentage over expectation (-6.7%), and last in total QBR (25.0). At times, Ward has flashed high-end arm talent, with three big-time throws in Tennessee's lone win of the season vs. the Cardinals. His turnover-worthy play rate is also solid for a first-year quarterback (2.0%, ninth in the NFL). However, like Maye's rookie season, it's tough to tell if Ward is "the guy" for the Titans because the situation around him is so unstable.

In last week's loss to the Raiders, where the offense had three points late into the fourth quarter, there was a lack of problem-solving for the Titans offense vs. pressure. Vegas strip-sacked Ward and caused him to spike another ball into the ground without any answers vs. the blitz, while the Titans O-Line also had mental breakdowns that led to sacks. As a rookie, Ward has the fifth-worst Pro Football Focus grade under pressure (40.8 out of 100).

On the ground, the Titans parted ways with legendary offensive line coach Bill Callahan, the father of Tennessee's former head coach. That's a sneaky big loss for Tennessee, whose offensive line was playing respectable football under the elder Callahan. The Titans O-Line is 12th in pass-blocking win rate and has some flashes of clean run-blocking. Titans RB Tony Pollard is a capable back, averaging an impressive 3.09 yards after contact, and is tied for seventh with 18 forced missed tackles.

The Pats run defense has been excellent, ranking fourth in rush EPA, but this is a balanced Tennessee rushing attack that majors in zone and power schemes. The Titans run traditional outside zone (first clip) and use pin-pull techniques as outside zone change-ups (second clip). Pollard is averaging 5.6 yards per rush, so look for the Pats to use their "spill" run fits to take away cutback lanes to force him into the sideline.

With the Titans parting ways with their offensive-minded head coach and heralded offensive line coach, one would expect that the Patriots will test Tennessee's interim staff's ability to have a sound protection and run-blocking plan. With all due respect, the Titans offense has struggled. Pollard is a solid back, star WR Calvin Ridley is banged up with a hamstring injury, and WR Van Jefferson and TE Chig Okonkwo can be sneaky productive. However, the Saints presented more problems from a personnel standpoint with their speed at the skill positions, and QB Spencer Rattler is further along in his development.

The Patriots defense should be able to play its game and get out of Tennessee with a win.

Key Matchups

Pats Interior O-Line vs. DT Jeffery Simmons

There isn't one Patriot blocker that can handle Simmons alone, so this will be a team effort. ID'ing where he's lining up pre-snap to slide the protection toward Simmons will be key, as will being effective on double teams, because Simmons will split them with his swim move. My guess is the Titans will target LG Jared Wilson while running stunts over the rookies on the left side of the Patriots offensive line. Simmons can spoil this game for the Patriots.

EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson vs. Titans LT Dan Moore Jr.

Moore was one of the starting left tackles who moved teams in free agency, so he's a player the Patriots could've pursued last offseason. Instead, Moore ended up in Tennessee, and the Pats drafted Campbell, a decision New England is probably happy about. This season, Moore ranks 47th out of 67 qualified tackles in pass-blocking efficiency (95.3). One move that seems to give Moore problems is the inside spin, so look for Chaisson to set that up with his double swip and inside spin sequencing.

CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Titans WR Calvin Ridley

Ridley might not play in Sunday's game after suffering a hamstring injury during the second quarter of last week's loss to the Raiders. Still, he's worth highlighting as the Titans most dangerous playmaker. Last season, Gonzalez shadowed Ridley on 75% of his routes, and Ridley had three catches for 51 yards on six targets against Gonzo. Like last week, it was the in-breaking routes that gave Gonzalez trouble. Ridley caught a 25-yard skinny post, a 12-yard slant, and a 14-yard dig against Gonzalez's man coverage, while the Pats CB won the deep targets when Ridley ran vertical routes. Although the Pats haven't necessarily traveled with receivers yet, this could be a week where they decide to let Gonzalez shadow Ridley.

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