The Patriots are turning the page to another home game at Gillette Stadium, with a sour taste in their mouth coming off a loss where they outplayed the Pittsburgh Steelers for most of the afternoon.

Despite out-gaining the Steelers, the Patriots fell in a 21-14 head-scratching loss. Sometimes, you lose because you were overmatched, and as much as that stings, you have to come to terms with losing to a better team. Last Sunday, it didn't feel like the better team won. However, as the old saying goes, you have to stop losing games before you can start winning, which is where the Patriots are offensively.

The Patriots offense finished drives in scoring territory six times, and had a 47% play success rate vs. the Steelers (72nd percentile). QB Drake Maye once again had several high-end quarterback plays, and he now ranks an impressive eighth in expected points added per drop-back through three weeks (+0.20). Yet, here New England sits at 1-2, following a loss where all the good they did was outdone by five costly turnovers, including two giveaways inside the two-yard line on the doorstep of the end zone.

Although this week's theme is eliminating the "sh*t that gets you beat," another post-game quote from head coach Mike Vrael that stood out was lamenting the lack of "X" plays by the Patriots, forcing the offense into long scoring drives. Drives with explosive plays (15+ yards passes, 10+ yard runs) are 50% more likely to score points. Furthermore, NFL teams score on 62.9% of drives when they generate one explosive, and that increases 83 percent when they produce multiple explosives. Why? The more you snap the ball, the more likely the offense will make a mistake.

"It's hard to drive the ball 19 plays. Impressive that we can do that. But it's also a reminder that you have to hit some X plays," Vrabel said. "We have to score. You have to score in this league. You have to -- again, I'm great with the long drives. We're going to have to continue to use that and gain confidence, but we're going to have to find ways to create explosive plays."

The Patriots offense ranks 14th in explosive play rate at 12.9% with 25 chunk gains through three weeks, so not horrible. However, the Patriots explosive pass plays are, well, not as explosive as other teams. The Patriots have 17 pass plays of 15-plus yards, which is tied for ninth in the NFL. But they're only averaging 21.1 yards per play on those explosive pass plays, which is 30th in the NFL. With the offense forced to string positive plays together, the Pats scoring drives take 9.5 plays on average, the NFL's seventh-highest play per scoring drive rate.

Vrabel's comments suggest that he would like to reduce how often the Patriots snap the football. The more the offense snaps the ball, the more likely it is that bad things will happen, which is why chunk plays are critical. For example, the Pats went on a 17-play drive last week, running three plays from Pittsburgh's two-yard line, eventually throwing a third-down interception in the end zone.

New England has to avoid turnovers and generate more explosive plays on offense, but the second one might be difficult until the Patriots develop a deep threat. In the first three games, Maye is just 4-of-7 on passes of 20-plus air yards, with a 6.6 deep pass attempt rate, 29th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks. We know that isn't because Maye can't throw deep – his arm talent is excellent. So, it's probably more about his supporting cast. For now, it appears that OC Josh McDaniels is maximizing the Pats ability to generate big plays by scheming open deep shots. Still, it'll be interesting to see if there's another gear for this offense.

Moving on to the Panthers, Carolina shocked many pundits in a 30-0 victory over the Falcons last week. Frankly, my daydreaming after the win in Miami had the Patriots at 3-1 entering a Week 5 showdown vs. the Bills on Sunday Night Football. Well, how quickly a week changes things. Now, the Pats need a bounce-back win, while Carolina might not be as much of a cupcake as it first appeared based on last week's results.

The Panthers are in year two of a rebuild under head coach Dave Canales. Like he did with another former No. 1 overall pick in Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, Canales is trying to revive the first-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Bryce Young, inside the Panthers head coach's West Coast offense. Carolina also has an up-and-coming defensive schemer in DC Ejiro Evero, whose defense had two key interceptions in their Week 3 win.

Let's preview the schematic chess match between the Patriots and Panthers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.

Pats Offense vs. Panthers Defense: How did the Panthers Put Penix in a Blender?

The Panthers stunning victory over the Falcons was spearheaded by a great defensive performance, with a pick-six and another interception that produced a short field.

After struggling for the first three quarters, Atlanta benched starting QB Michael Penix, and has made significant changes to their coaching staff in the days following the loss. The Falcons fired receivers coach Ike Hilliard, and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is moving downstairs from the coaches booth to call plays on the sideline so he can work with Penix directly. Frankly, the tape was that bad: Penix didn't see the field well, the route spacing and depths weren't making sense, and they didn't have answers to pressure.

Although some of it was bad offense by the Falcons, Carolina deserves credit for confusing Penix. Evero bases the defense out of odd fronts (3-4) with primarily zone coverage. The Panthers are playing zone schemes on 86 percent of their drop-backs (third-highest rate in the NFL), majoring in cover three with some zone matching vs. slot verticals. They also major in creeper pressures, blitzing a typical coverage player and dropping a rusher off the line. Last week, Evero spun the dial on Penix by changing the coverage shell after showing the Falcons quarterback a different pre-snap picture. Carolina also played more man coverage than usual, with Penix going 1-for-7 for 16 yards and an interception vs. man schemes.

For example, Carolina shows four deep defenders in a quarters coverage shell before the snap. At the snap, the outside corners rotate into the short zone distribution with the safeties falling into a Tampa-2 zone. The Panthers have the right play call with double seam routes to put the pole-runner in the middle of the cover two structure in conflict because he can't carry both seams. As a result, TE Kyle Pitts is open for a big play in the right seam, but Penix makes a pre-snap determination to throw the hitch vs. an off-coverage corner. When the zone spins, the hitch is now covered, and Penix misses the open seam route while throwing it away.

The other way the Panthers got to Penix was by heating him up with blitz pressure. Carolina hasn't been very successful with generating unblocked pressure this season, but they got Atlanta a few times last week. Above, the Panthers simulate pressure by putting six rushers on the line of scrimmage, but drop one rusher out into a short zone while sending nickel pressure. The offensive line accounts for the "bigs" on the line of scrimmage, leaving the nickel corner unblocked on the blitz, and Penix rushes a throw over the middle into a crowd.

On paper, the Panthers defense doesn't look very formidable. They're struggling to generate pass rush with only one sack on the season, while ranking 30th in team pressure rate (24.3%). After selecting WR Tetairoa McMillan in the first round, Carolina drafted a pair of edge rushers on day two, Nic Scourton and Princley Umanmielen. Umanmielen has the Panthers only sack, while Scourton's spin move flashed on tape.

That said, if Maye can keep his wits about him to decipher Evero's scheming, there should be time in the pocket and open receivers for the Patriots quarterback on Sunday.

Pats Defense vs. Panthers Offense: Taking Away the Middle of the Field vs. Bryce Young (aka Righty Tua)

Okay, not everyone sees the comparison here, and maybe it's the Alabama tie, but watching Young on tape this week gave off major Tua Tagovailoa vibes.

Although it might sound like one, that's not meant to be an insult. As we've seen firsthand, an in-rhythm Tua with the proper supporting cast is a dangerous quarterback. Young has not been given the same weaponry as Tagovailoa has in Miami during his Panthers career. Over the last few seasons, Carolina has had one of the NFL's worst groups of pass-catchers, which has led the Panthers brass to take first-round receivers Tetairoa McMillan and Xavier Legette in back-to-back drafts. Legette hasn't lived up to his draft status as the 32nd overall pick in the 2024 draft, but McMillan is an impressive rookie. Specifically, his fluidity and ability to create yards after the catch at 6-4, 219 pounds.

As for Young, the Tua comp stems from the fact that the Panthers QB is only efficient at passing between the numbers. Young isn't the biggest guy (5-10, 204 pounds), and he doesn't have great arm talent to drive the ball outside the numbers or into tight windows downfield. According to NextGen Stats, Young generates an impressive +0.35 expected points added per play on short passes and +0.21 EPA per play on throws between the numbers. However, his efficiency plummets when asked to throw the ball deeper (-0.24 EPA/play) or outside the numbers (-0.18 EPA/play). So, forcing Young to make those throws is crucial.

The Panthers will get into some under-center sequencing, playing the hits of outside zone, duo, tosses and bootlegs. But, really, their offense gets caught in a loop of quick-games, screens and intermediate in-breaking routes, which can frustrate a pass rush but doesn't lead to an overly efficient offense (21st in DVOA). Since their offense has West Coast roots, Carolina's drop-back passing concepts are similar to the offense Alex Van Pelt ran for Drake Maye in the Patriots QB's rookie season.

For example, Carolina runs a West Coast drop-back staple here: C.O. Bow. The progression reads are as follows: 1. Choice 2 Out 3. Backside dig in the bow concept (spot-dig). Young moves the robber defender in the middle of this man coverage structure by reading the C.O. side first, then hits McMillan in-stride on the backside dig for a 40-yard gain.

In Week 2, Tua hit the throws the Patriots conceded to him by attacking the "honey hole" in cover two zones, with Dolphins wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle running corners and outs into the opening in New England's zones. However, besides McMillan, the Panthers don't have that type of talent at the skill positions, so one would expect the Patriots to use a similar game plan against Young this week.

The Patriots have to take away the middle of the field, so funneling throws outside the numbers with their coverage schemes will be key.

Key Matchups

RG Mike Onwenu vs. Panthers DT Derrick Brown

Brown is one of the strong dudes in the NFL, with ragdoll power to toss blockers off him, which is rare to see at this level. His anchor makes him an immovable object in the run game, while his upper-body power to execute push-pull techniques to shed blocks is ridiculous. Typically, Brown aligns as a 3-4 defensive end playing in the B-Gap between the right guard and right tackle, so this will be a heavyweight matchup for Onwenu and RT Morgan Moses.

CB Carlton Davis/Christian Gonzalez vs. Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan

Studying the Panthers rookie receiver this week was fun. His fluidity as a route runner, burst as a ball carrier and ability to make acrobatic catches is translating to the pro level. Nearly half his targets have come on hitches (nine) and digs (five), so taking him away starts with those second-level breaks. McMillan is Carolina's only scary receiving threat, so one would expect the Patriots to pay extra attention to the talented rookie.

DT Milton Williams vs. Panthers RG Chandler Zavala

The Panthers are on their backup center and right guard after injuries to starters Austin Corbett and Robert Hunt. Zavala and backup C Cade Mayes only allowed two pressures in Week 3, but they'll face a stiffer test with the Patriots interior D-Line. The question is less about whether the Patriots have an advantage here and more about whether they can get Young to hold the ball long enough for Williams and company to take over the game. Young is tied for the seventh-fastest time to attempt at 2.51 seconds, so it's another week where New England has to find ways to get Carolina's offense off-schedule and create pass-rushing opportunities.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer