The Patriots are hosting the New York Giants in their first Monday Night Football game since the 2022 season, and New England will face arguably its biggest test yet: overcoming key injuries.

To this point, the Patriots have been relatively lucky on the injury front but will now likely play Monday night's game without starting LT Will Campbell (knee), LG Jared Wilson (ankle), and standout DT Milton Williams (ankle). In the offseason, New England upgraded the frontline talent at the top of its roster, but now we will see whether it has enough depth to weather the injury storm until its starters in the trenches return.

Along with QB Drake Maye's year-two leap, a huge reason for the Patriots 10-2 record is an improved offensive line. Last season, the Patriots were 31st in pass-blocking win rate and last in run-blocking win rate. This season, those metrics have improved to 20th and 15th. With potentially two starters out, New England will likely roll with the same group it finished last week's win over the Bengals with: LT Vederian Lowe, LG Ben Brown, C Garrett Bradbury, RG Mike Onwenu, and RT Morgan Moses.

When it comes to offensive line play, one-on-one individual losses happen. The defense gets paid, too. That said, a critical part of offensive line play is an old Scarnecchia-ism: seeing the game through the same set of eyes. By having all five blockers on the same page, the group can often play above its perceived talent level. Last week, the Patriots had some struggles with Cincinnati's blitz package in that regard (Maye: 0-of-5 vs. cover zero). On the Pats final third down, the Bengals generated a free runner when LB Barrett Carter came through unblocked, giving Maye little chance to complete a pass. Just getting a hat-on-a-hat in those situations goes a long way.

As we turn the page to the Giants, keeping Maye protected and generating more disruption along the defensive line will be key to extending the Patriots nine-game winning streak on Monday night.

Despite their 2-10 record, we shouldn't sleep on the Giants, who have an interim head coach (Mike Kafka) and defensive coordinator (Charlie Bullen). The Giants are in this transition phase because they're failing to close out winnable games, with a league-high five losses after leading by double digits, tying an NFL record, including a 34-27 overtime loss to the Lions, in which they led 10-0, 17-7, and 27-17. The Giants have lost three consecutive one-score games to the Bears (24-20), Packers (27-20), and Lions (34-27 in OT). So, they've been competitive in recent weeks.

The Giants new-look coaching staff also makes them harder to prepare for, as each coach puts their own spin on things. For example, the Giants ran two separate trick plays for touchdowns against the Lions last week, while this is New York's first game with new defensive play-caller Charlie Bullen, so the Patriots will have to be prepared for anything this week. It also sounds like first-round QB Jaxson Dart will return from a concussion following a two-game absence, so that's another added wrinkle.

Let's break down the chess match between the Giants and Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Monday Night Football.

Offense Key: Attack the Giants Run Defense, Adjust to Changes Under Interim DC Charlie Bullen

The main reason the Giants have a losing record is that their defense, which they invested heavily in, has underperformed this season.

The plan for the Giants wasn't to rank 28th in DVOA and 30th in points allowed (27.8 PPG) while having the second-highest payroll in the NFL on defense. After adding third-overall pick Abdul Carter to a defensive front that already featured Kayvon Thibodeaux (No. 5 overall pick in 2022), Brian Burns, and three-time Pro Bowl DT Dexter Lawrence, the idea was to create a menacing front that would dominate the line of scrimmage.

Instead, the Giants have an average-to-below-average pass rush: 15th in pass-rush win rate (38%), 23rd in pressure rate (32.6%), and 23rd in sack rate (5.5%). New York also has the worst run defense in football, ranking last in rush EPA, rush success rate, and yards per rush (5.9). Along with all the blown leads, the Giants struggling defense led to parting ways with former head coach Brian Daboll and defensive coordinator Shane Bowen.

Although it hasn't gone as planned this season, you have to take the Giants pass rush seriously. Burns, Carter, and Lawrence are talented rushers who can wreck games (Thibodeaux is out with a shoulder injury). Burns and Carter rank 13th and 14th, respectively, in pass-rush win rate among edge rushers, while Lawrence is a disruptive pocket-denter – on paper, it's a legit trio. The Patriots reworked offensive line will have to gel quickly to pick up schemed rushes, while offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels might need to help out the backups on the left side of the line.

The Patriots will also have to prepare for some uncertainty in the defense under a new play-caller. Bullen's coaching mentors include defensive coordinators Vance Joseph (Broncos) and Matt Burke (Texans), whose systems share roots with the man/match-heavy defense the Giants are currently deploying. New York ranks second in man coverage rate (41%), sixth in single-high safety rate (60.7%), and plays match-quarters as a changeup, which has man coverage principles down the field.

"I think the structure has got to be somewhat the same. It would be really hard to completely change from an under front to an over in base," head coach Mike Vrabel said this week. "We'll just always have to be prepared for things that they could do, and maybe that there's more pressure on early downs, less pressure on third down, or whatever those things have been. But I wouldn't have any idea how he would plan on calling it. We'll have to just see and make sure that we're prepared for anything that could come up throughout the game."

When it comes to the Giants run defense struggles, it's a weakness-on-weakness matchup between New York's run defense and New England's rush offense. Even with their five starters healthy, the Patriots offense is 30th in rush EPA (-0.18) this season. The Pats have majored in gap schemes such as duo and fullback lead plays, which have given the Giants trouble, but New England is only averaging 4.0 yards per rush when they use those man-blocking schemes (20th in the NFL).

Conversely, the Giants have surrendered a league-worst 7.8 yards per rush on downhill run plays, two yards per carry more than the next-closest defense (Bills, 5.8-yard average). Last week, Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 184 of his 219 yards on inside runs, hitting a Giants weakness between the tackles for chunk gains, including a game-winning 69-yard TD.

One would think the Patriots will at least test the Giants interior run defense, maybe with their own speed back, rookie TreVeyon Henderson. From there, offenses are having success with play-action concepts, adding +0.19 expected points and 8.3 yards per pass attempt, both of which rank in the bottom half of the league. Over the last two weeks, the Lions and Packers have hit play-action explosives on the sail concept (Henry TD vs. Bengals) and the "knife" concept against the Giants single-high safety coverages.

In theory, an under-center plan that includes downhill runs with play-action aimed to take down single-high coverages should work against the Giants defense. By avoiding traditional drop-back passing as much as possible, it also limits a shorthanded offensive line's exposure to one-on-one pass rushes. The trends say its advantage-Patriots offense with the Giants defense allowing 30.9 points per game on the road this season.

Defense Key: Play Man Coverage with a Spy vs. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart?

When the Patriots visited the Giants in their preseason finale, New York was starting QB Russell Wilson until they were ready to hand the keys over to first-round rookie Jaxson Dart.

The Giants selected Dart with the 25th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. After getting off to a 0-3 start, former head coach Brian Daboll made the inevitable switch to Dart, who has shown promise. Dart ranks ninth in expected points added (+0.18), with franchise quarterback flashes as a downfield passer and runner, registering a 5.9% big-time throw rate in his rookie season (third among qualified quarterbacks). Unfortunately, Dart's fearless play style as a runner has led to some bumps and bruises, but he's returning from a two-game absence because of a concussion on Monday night.

With the rookie under center, the Giants are running a much different offense than the one they ran with QB Jameis Winston over the last few weeks. Dart comes from Ole Miss's spread system under head coach Lane Kiffin, so it makes sense that New York is running 73.2% of its offense from the shotgun with Dart at quarterback (third-highest rate in the NFL). They're also adapting the offense to feature spread formations on 29.6% of Dart's plays, the second-highest rate in the NFL. With Winston, the G-Men were in the shotgun on just 54.1% of their offensive plays. Although Dart is in the gun more, the Giants are still featuring heavy personnel with two tight ends on the field for 37.7% of their offensive plays (third-highest rate).

On film, the Giants give Dart clear pictures with spread formations, allowing him to see leverage advantages in coverage. For example, he works this under/smash concept to his left above, where the outside receiver runs an under and the tight end runs an out. With the defender playing inside of the tight end, Dart has good vision to work the leverage advantage by throwing his tight end open with some anticipation to pick up a first down.

The other element to Dart's game that you have to prepare for as a defense is his ability to extend plays. In this clip, it appears that Dart wants to work the underneath option route to move chains, but the Bears have the three-receiver side covered. The rookie QB then goes into scramble drill mode, making an accurate off-platform toss to the crosser for a big play – that's a big-time throw.

Along with extending plays in the drop-back passing game, the Giants are featuring Dart on designed QB runs. Now, that might dissipate some because Dart was recently concussed on a designed run, but the Pats still have to be ready for it. This season, Dart has accumulated a league-high 152 rushing yards on designed quarterback runs. Above, the Giants run QB counter bash for Dart, and he keeps the ball behind the pullers for a 24-yard touchdown.

To their credit, the Giants offense has overcome starting three different quarterbacks while losing star WR Malik Nabers (torn ACL) for the season to rank 18th in DVOA: WR Wan'Dale Robinson is a productive speed-slot, WR Darius Slayton is a solid vertical threat, and TE Theo Johnson and WR Isaiah Hodgins are big targets that can win at the catch point. However, there is one area of Dart's game that can be exploited. Dart has been significantly less productive when teams play man coverage compared to facing zone coverage (see chart above).

Chicago was able to limit the Giants offense by playing man coverage with a spy on the quarterback, forcing Dart to make throws rather than extend plays. In this example, the Bears have the initial read side covered, a post-wheel concept to Dart's right, and when Dart goes to leave the pocket, the spy is there to stop him. Instead, Dart throws late over the middle to the backside dig, and the corner undercuts the pass and nearly intercepts it.

Like most talented young quarterbacks, Dart is flashing high-level playmaking ability, both in and out of structure. However, he will be reckless with the ball and his body at times, which is where the Patriots can take advantage of the young quarterback on Monday night.

Key Matchups

LT Vederain Lowe vs. Giants EDGEs Abdul Carter & Brian Burns

Although things could change with a new play-caller, the Giants are moving their two explosive edge-rushers around like crazy this season. Identifying where Burns and Carter are will be key, as they'll sometimes rush over the interior as well. When the Pats drop-back pass, my guess is they'll give plenty of chip-help to Lowe against two guys that like to win with pure speed. Burns has a nice complementary inside spin move while Carter goes to his crossover rush when tackles overset to the outside. By using chips to Lowe's side, the Pats backup LT can stay inside-out while feeling less threatened by the speed rushes. It's disappointing that we won't get Campbell vs. Carter, but it's up to Lowe to step up.

Pats Interior O-Line vs. Giants DT Dexter Lawrence

Lawrence is one of my favorite players to watch in the league due to his ragdoll power and impressive explosiveness for a 340-pound interior rusher. He dents the pocket better than just about any defensive tackle in the NFL, logging 25 total pressures despite rushing in the A-Gaps or straight-up over the center on 59% of his snaps, where he's easier to double team. Keeping the Giants DT off of Maye's lap will be a huge test for Brown, Bradbury, and Onwenu, and a key to victory on Monday night.

NCB Marcus Jones vs. Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson

This will be a fun speed-on-speed showdown in the slot between the Patriots captain and Robinson, who is the Giants leading receiver, posting a career-high 156 yards vs. the Lions last week. Robinson's game is similar to Patriots WR DeMario Douglas, as the Giants target him further down the field on crossers, corner routes, and seams rather than quick-hitters underneath. In Week 12, Robinson had 82 of his 156 receiving yards on three crossing routes, so staying with that speed across the field will be critical.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer