After both teams lost in the NFL's opening week, it's safe to say the Dolphins and Patriots didn't start the season off the way they envisioned.
In Week 1, head coach Mike Vrabel's Patriots fell to the Raiders in a 20-13 loss at home that had too many common threads with their back-to-back four-win seasons over the last two years. Although he's a proven head coach, Vrabel wasn't going to fix all New England's problems overnight, and the second-half offense, coupled with a boom-or-bust defense that allowed nine explosive pass plays, wasn't the winning formula that Vrabel outlined for his team.
When he was hired, Vrabel preached taking advantage of bad football. Once the season grew closer, taking advantage of bad football was joined by winning the second half. Last Sunday, the Patriots did neither, and that was a tough pill to swallow following an offseason filled with such optimism due to the coaching hires and personnel upgrades.
As for Miami, the Colts stunned the Dolphins in a 33-8 win in Indianapolis last week, the most lopsided margin of victory in the NFL in Week 1. The Pats division rivals are in year four under head coach Mike McDaniel, whose offensive prowess is widely respected across the league, but it's gut-check time for McDaniel's regime after missing the playoffs a year ago and failing to win a postseason game in his first two seasons. If the Dolphins go backward again this season, they could be asking some tough questions down in South Beach.
That said, Tua Tagavailoa and the Dolphins could be coming off a 70-0 loss in Week 1, and Patriots fans would still be uneasy about Sunday's game. Tua is a perfect 7-0 in his career against New England, dating back to the last chapter of the Bill Belichick era. The Pats haven't won at Hard Rock Stadium since 2019, when old friend Brian Flores was the Dolphins head coach and Tom Brady was under center for New England.
Along with the recent Dolphins dominance over the Patriots, Week 1s in the NFL are notoriously fluky. Miami's loss came in a game where they turned the ball over three times, only had seven offensive possessions, and possessed the ball for just 21 minutes. Due to the turnovers and Indy dominating time of possession, the Dolphins offense all-22 was only 27 minutes long. That might be a little inside baseball, but take my word for it, that's very short. When you turn on their tape on offense, in particular, you still see an ever-manipulative Tua throwing to a skill group with tremendous speed and creative scheming by McDaniel.
Given how one-sided this matchup has been of late, you cannot simply say "just do what the Colts did" to get a win in Miami. One loss against a different team isn't a good indicator of how this matchup will be played, with the Pats and Vrabel's recent film vs. the Dolphins being far more telling. So, in this week's preview, we'll focus mostly on recent Pats-Dolphins clashes and Vrabel's history vs. McDaniel.
Let's get into the schematic chess match of Sunday's trip to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Dolphins with kickoff shortly after 1 p.m. ET.
Patriots Offense vs. Dolphins Defense: Maye's Second Matchup vs. DC Anthony Weaver
Although the Patriots are running a different offense under Josh McDaniels, the Dolphins retained coordinator Anthony Weaver for a second season as their defensive play-caller.
In his first season as Miami's defensive coordinator, the Dolphins defense finished 22nd in DVOA. However, the second-year quarterback didn't play well in the lone matchup between Maye and the Dolphins defense last season. Maye generated -0.21 expected points added per play with four sacks, two turnovers, and a 43.7 QBR in a 34-15 loss in Miami. Weaver stressed Maye and the Pats O-Line with schemed pressure, which Miami used at the third-highest rate in the NFL a year ago (7.9%).
Before being hired in Miami, Weaver spent three seasons with the Ravens as a defensive assistant. Baltimore is known for spinning the pressure dial using creepers or simulated pressures, creating a blitz feel without sending extra rushers. Creepers are when a coverage player blitzes, like a slot corner, while the defense drops a typical pass-rusher off the line of scrimmage to replace the blitzer in coverage. Simulated pressures, on the other hand, are when the defense threatens all-out pressure, leaving the offensive line to sort out who is rushing and who is dropping into coverage. The Dolphins generate unblocked blitzers at the highest rate in the NFL since the start of the 2024 season (9.6%).
For example, Miami runs a replacement blitz here, where the inside linebacker blitzes up the middle while the two ends drop out as low-hole help defenders in a man coverage scheme. The inside blitzer forces the left guard to block down to the linebacker while the defensive tackle attacks the inside shoulder of the left tackle, who sets out to block the defensive end. With the left tackle setting outside, it creates a soft inside shoulder that DT Zach Seiler powers through for a strip-sack.
Here's another example where the Dolphins create a free runner that leads to an interception. Again, the left tackle sets out to the defensive end, but the end drops off the line into coverage. By threatening the offensive line with five initial rushers, the slot corner blitz comes unblocked, and the defense has the blitzer capped by having the deep safety take his man. The scheme leaves a hurried Maye without answers, and his check-down attempt is intercepted.
In the Pats current scheme under McDaniels, the goal is for the quarterback to recognize blitz threats and change the protections pre-snap to get everyone blocked, rather than executing a post-snap "hot" read against an unblocked rusher. If the Patriots can get the Dolphins front blocked, Miami's secondary is shorthanded, with old friend Jack Jones as their current No. 1 corner. Like there were for Colts QB Daniel Jones last week, there should be open receivers if the protection holds.
However, in a matchup against a young quarterback operating a new system, one would expect Weaver to "heat up" Maye once again.
Colts O vs. Dolphins D Review
Although we wouldn't put too much stock into last week's film, the Colts clearly did something correctly to win a 25-point blowout.
In After Further Review, we discussed how critical it is for the Patriots to run the ball more effectively. Last week, Indy rushed for 156 yards on 40 attempts, opening up play-action and RPO passes for QB Daniel Jones. More specifically, the Colts were highly effective running the ball out of shotgun formations, where they used their RPO schemes. The Colts had a 52 percent success rate on their gun runs (110 yards on 25 attempts).
For example, the Colts used this curl-flat RPO to produce successful plays. Above, they have a zone-read inside run set up with the tight end motioning into the flat and the curl serving as a rub route. The pass option takes the weakside linebacker out of the run fit, and with the Dolphins zoning off the routes, Jones gives the ball to the back for a positive run.
Earlier, the Colts ran a similar curl-flat concept where the Dolphins are playing man coverage. With the defense in man-to-man, the pass option doesn't empty the box, but the curl route serves as a pick on the man defender for an easy dump-off into the flat for a positive gain.
Given Indy's success with these option schemes, the Patriots could try to replicate the Colts RPO schemes.
Patriots Defense vs. Dolphins Offense: Revisiting Vrabel vs. McDaniel in the 2023 Season
After all the unknowns heading into the regular-season opener, there's more history between these two teams that we can pull from due to the continuity on the Dolphins coaching staff.
During his time in Tennessee, Vrabel faced McDaniel and Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa in the 2023 season, with the Titans pulling out a 28-27 victory on Monday Night Football. Although the Dolphins scored 27 points, seven came off a pick-six, with Tua producing just -0.13 expected points added on 42 drop-backs (25th percentile). Tagovailoa was also sacked five times by the Titans defense, which mostly kept a lid on the explosive Miami offense.
Tagovailoa has a perfect 7-0 record vs. the Patriots in his career as a starter. In those seven starts, the Dolphins early-down offense has controlled each matchup. Miami produced +0.13 expected points added per play with a 51.5% success rate and a 19.6% explosive play rate on first and second down. New England has struggled to get the Dolphins offense off-schedule, with Tua operating in-rhythm thanks to his quick release and Miami's speed creating passing windows by stretching the Patriots defense horizontally. The Dolphins unlock tremendous speed at the skill positions with McDaniel's highly advanced motion package. Since the start of the 2024 season, Miami ranks second in the NFL with a motion rate of 80.7%. When you play the Dolphins, you must have a plan and strong communication versus their motion.
To get Tagovailoa off his game, the keys are generating quick interior pressure and taking away the middle of the field. When he can deliver quickly from clean pockets, Tua is as efficient as any quarterback in the league. The Dolphins QB also loves throwing in-breaking routes between the numbers. Since arriving in 2022, McDaniel's scheme point-guarded by Tagovailoa has produced the second-most expected points added on in-breaking routes in the NFL (slants, crossers, digs, post, etc.).
"They've got a fantastic orchestrator. Tua [Tagovailoa] does a fantastic job of knowing where he wants to go with the ball. Quick delivery, he's extremely accurate. Then the speed with [Jaylen] Waddle, Tyreek and the whole team," Vrabel said this week.
In the 2023 matchup, Vrabel's Titans defense took away Tua's hot spots by playing Tampa-2 coverage. In Tampa-2, the defense has two safeties playing over the top to take away the deep part of the field, a must against Tyreek Hill and company, while the pole-runner in the middle of the zone structure can close down on those in-breaking routes. Above, Miami is running its staple dagger concept with Hill motioning into his route to build up speed. The inside receiver runs a vertical route to clear out the coverage, while Hill runs a deep dig route. The Titans used S Amani Hooker as the pole runner, and as you can see, Hooker is sitting in the dig window. Tennessee also successfully throws off the play's timing by unlocking the nose tackle to penetrate inside, forcing Tua to climb the pocket. Due to the interior pressure and the coverage call, Tagovailoa is forced to check it down.
With the Titans early-down defense doing its thing, it allowed Tennessee to play more exotic third down schemes in obvious passing situations. Above, the Titans appear to be in a cover-7 call with brackets on both Hill and sidekick Jaylen Waddle. The Titans bracket Waddle with a "cone" bracket, where they're playing him inside-out with two defenders, while Hill has an under/over bracket with a trail defender playing with safety help over the top. The Titans then run mirrored T/E stunts in the pass rush, and with his top two targets bracketed, Harold Landry sacks Tua.
To shut down Miami's offense, the key is to take out the head of the snake. If they allow him to throw in-rhythm to the middle of the field, Tagovailoa will continue to give the Patriots defense problems.
Dolphins O vs. Colts D Review
As mentioned, the Dolphins offense had an uncharacteristic performance that included three turnovers vs. the Colts, leading to a wonky game script that forced them to pass.
However, the stats and film show Miami ran the ball well. The Dolphins generated +0.39 expected points added and a 60% success rate, with lead-back De'Von Achane rushing for 55 yards on seven attempts. In a closer game on the scoreboard, one would expect Miami to lean more on its rushing attack. To prep for the Dolphins run game, Miami typically leans on zone runs from under-center or in the pistol formation. Miami also likes to sequence runs from heavy formations with a fullback in the backfield. Above, the Dolphins use Tyreek Hill and boot-action to hold the backside defenders while the back follows the fullback, and Achane gets loose.
"They have a fullback that has versatility and can play on the inner line of scrimmage, motions. Usually, every big play, he's kind of in the run game, he's somewhere near it," Vrabel said of Dolphins FB Alec Ingold.
One key aspect to this matchup is how the Patriots plan to match Miami's heavy formations. With their talented fullback in the mix, the Dolphins ran two-back groupings at the second-highest rate in the NFL last season (30.3%). If you play standard three-corner nickel vs. Miami's big groupings, the Dolphins have the ability to run you over. If you play heavier defensive personnel such as three-safety nickel or base, then you leave yourself vulnerable to their speedy receivers matched on linebackers and safeties – that's the challenge of facing this offense.
Key Matchups
LT Will Campbell vs. Dolphins EDGE Bradley Chubb
After sustaining a major right knee injury at the end of the 2023 season, Chubb returned following a lengthy absence last week. The veteran recorded a sack with an inside swim move on Colts LT Bernhard Raimann, a pass rush move that has given Campbell some problems. That said, the sack was Chubb's only pressure in the game as he returned from an injury to his ACL, meniscus, and patellar tendon. Obviously, Chubb's had a long road back.
DT Milton Williams vs. Dolphins RG Kion Smith
The Pats biggest free-agent splash got off to a great start with four pressures and a run stuff in the season opener, and will now face a backup right guard and a rookie left guard (Jonah Savaiinaea) in Week 2. Miami will also have a backup right tackle (Larry Borom), typically where Harold Landry rushes. I'd also highlight NT Khyiris Tonga, who should play more, against Dolphins C Aaron Brewer. Brewer is a good, athletic center. The whole Miami run game starts with the center, so Tonga holding up Brewer to slow down the zone schemes is critical.
Pats CBs vs. Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle
Here's a shocking Dolphins stat: the last time Hill had a 30-plus yard reception was over a year ago (Week 1, 2024). Due to their vertical speed, nobody has seen more two-high safety coverages than Tua over the last two years (53%), limiting Miami's deep passing game. Still, you can't sleep on Hill and Waddle. The Pats played sides last week rather than shadowing specific matchups, which we expect to continue into Week 2.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
