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Patriots Gameplan: 3 Keys to Victory for New England in Sunday's Matchup vs. the Browns in Week 8

The Patriots return home for a matchup against the top-ranked defense in the NFL. 

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The Patriots will look to extend the longest active winning streak in the NFL to five games when they return home to Gillette Stadium to host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.

Although it's the first time these two teams have met since 2022, there's plenty of familiarity between the Browns and Patriots. During his year between head coaching jobs, head coach Mike Vrabel spent the 2024 season as a coaching and personnel consultant for Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski. Earlier this week, Vrabel shared some insight into his time with the Browns and his role under Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry.

"Well, I enjoyed that time. I enjoyed the people there. That organization. I enjoyed working with Kevin [Stefanski], the offensive staff, Tommy Rees and Chad [O'Shea]. I played with Bubba [Ventrone]. So, a lot of good young coaches. Jim Schwartz – I had a really good relationship with Schwartzy," Vrabel said this week. "I was trying to help the players. I was trying to help the young coaches. I tried to help with player development."

Sometimes, the institutional knowledge angle can be overblown. Still, it'll be interesting to see how much Vrabel's year in Cleveland helps New England prepare for Sunday's game, especially prepping for the Browns offense since Vrabel spent a significant amount of his time with Stefanski and OC Tommy Reese last season.

As an offense-minded head coach, Stefanski is the Browns primary play-caller and one of the NFL's better system installers. However, Cleveland is still searching for a solution at the most important position in sports: quarterback. The Browns cycling through starting quarterbacks is nothing new, but that trend has continued under Stefanski, who has started 12 different quarterbacks in his six seasons as Browns head coach.

EPA-per-drive-team-tiers

credit: @SamHoppen

Cleveland has now turned to third-round rookie QB Dillon Gabriel after beginning the year with Joe Flacco, who is now in Cincinnati. Whether it's been Flacco or Gabriel, the Browns offense has struggled, ranking 27th in expected points added (EPA) while Cleveland's defense is third in EPA. From a statistical perspective, the Browns have the biggest gap between defensive and offensive efficiency in the NFL through seven weeks, which is why they're 2-5.

Although the offense has struggled, the Browns defense might be the biggest challenge QB Drake Maye and the Patriots offense will face all season. Led by perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Garrett, the Browns are third in EPA, fifth in DVOA, fourth in team pressure rate, and lead the league in pass-rush and run-stop win rate. Plus, veteran DC Jim Schwartz is an excellent schemer. For an offense that hasn't faced the best competition, it'll be fascinating to see how Maye fares against the Browns stingy defense.

"They're playing at a high level, they're playing with a lot of confidence. It's a lot of speed, a lot of disruption," Vrabel said of the Browns defense. "They don't give you a whole lot of time to make decisions. And then there's enough change ups in there that you just have to be good. You have to be sound, can't hold on to the ball. Coverage is sticky, and the linebackers are fast."

From a big-picture standpoint, winning the turnover battle will be critical on Sunday. The Browns offense struggles to score (30th in PPG), but 21 points off four turnovers led to their 31-6 victory over the Dolphins last week. If the Pats play clean football and force Gabriel to drive the length of the field, it's hard to imagine Cleveland's offense out-scoring New England's with the way Maye is playing. The Pats have won or tied the turnover battle in each game with only one giveaway during their four-game winning streak. If they play turnover-free football, they win.

Let's preview the chess match between the Browns and Patriots as New England returns to Gillette Stadium after three straight road games.

Patriots Offense Key: Moving the Pocket Could be the Browns Defenses' Kryptonite

The Browns defense presents a legitimate threat to the Patriots four-game winning streak, serving as a fun litmus test for Maye's surge into the MVP conversation.

If the second-year quarterback continues dealing this week, Maye will do so against the third-best defense in EPA this season. Maye is now a top-five quarterback by most metrics, ranking fourth in total QBR (76.8) and leading the league in EPA per drop-back (+0.35). But he has also faced defenses that rank 23rd, 31st, 25th, 17th, 22nd, 21st, and 28th in total EPA. That's not to take away from Maye's brilliance, but it's fair to wonder how he'll do against tougher competition.

This week, Maye will face an opponent with game-wreckers at all three levels of the defense under the direction of a defensive guru in Schwartz. Garrett rightfully gets most of the attention, as his movements at 6-4, 272 pounds look alien-like at times. However, the Browns have built this defense up around their former DPOY. Cleveland also has defensive linemen Maliek Collins, Alex Wright, and first-rounder Mason Graham playing well, while second-rounder Carson Schwesinger and Devin Bush are a solid linebacker duo. In the secondary, four-time Pro Bowl CB Denzel Ward and S Grant Delpit anchor the backend for Cleveland.

Schwartz bases the Browns defense out of over fronts (4-3), and they play quite a bit of base defense (37.7%, seventh-highest) with Schwesinger, Bush, and Jerome Baker at linebacker. Cleveland also plays man coverage at the sixth-highest rate (37%) and is near the top of the league in single-high safety rate (fourth, 62.1%). They don't blitz much, relying on standard rushes that have produced the fifth-most sacks from a four-man rush (15), but Schwartz does have a cover-zero package.

Generally speaking, New England needs a sound plan to manage Garrett and company – you have to account for this Browns front. That means getting the ball out of the quarterback's hands quickly, spreading out Cleveland's defense to run, and loading up with extra blockers when they take shots downfield. More specifically, one vulnerability in the Browns defense is using bootlegs or keepers. Cleveland's defense ranks 24th in EPA per play against bootlegs (+0.30), likely due to their aggressiveness, heavy single-high safety usage, and moving the pocket keeps Garrett away from the QB. Over the last three weeks, the Vikings, Steelers, and Dolphins have hit chunk plays against the Browns defense off bootlegs.

For example, the Steelers first play from scrimmage against the Browns in Week 6 was a 36-yard explosive off a moving pocket. Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers draws in the defense with a hard play-action fake from shotgun, while Pittsburgh disguises TE Darnell Washington's route by having him release through the B-Gap like a run blocker. The window dressing causes Cleveland's defense to leave Washington uncovered, and he's off to the races.

Here's another possible play to copy from a split-back gun formation. Rodgers runs play-action with a "spinner" fake where he turns his back to the defense, and then Pittsburgh boots out of the fake on a standard bootleg concept (corner-cross-flat). With the Browns in cover three, and the Steelers moving the pocket away from Garrett, Rodgers hits WR DK Metcalf for a 25-yard completion. Miami ran a similar play for a 15-yard completion last week.

The Vikings also had success with bootlegs, both to the quarterback's arm and non-arm side. Above, Minnesota starts with only a fullback in the backfield in a short-yardage situation. The Vikings motion WR Justin Jefferson into the backfield, fake the inside handoff to the fullback, and then run a boot/flat concept for an easy first down.

To their credit, Cleveland seems to be catching on to the fact that it struggles with bootleg concepts. After getting burned by one early last week, the Browns began blitzing their safeties off the edges into the boot side, leaving Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa in no-win situations.

Based on their adjustments last week, the Patriots will need to be ready for the Browns blitzing off the edges to combat bootleg schemes. Still, the alternative is traditional drop-backs against this defensive front, which is also a tricky proposition. Given how comfortable he is throwing on the run, getting Maye on the move might be the Pats best bet.

Patriots Defense Key: Force Browns QB Dillon Gabriel to Throw the Ball Downfield

Moving over to the Browns offense, Cleveland has struggled to score this season as it searches for a long-term answer at quarterback.

The Browns are 30th in scoring offense (16.1 PPG), 31st in DVOA, and Gabriel has posted a 30.4 total QBR (out of 100) in three starts, ranking 33rd among 34 qualified quarterbacks. In other words, Cleveland's offense doesn't scare you much on paper. That said, there are always things to worry about with any pro offense.

Dillon Gabriel, This Season Passes Under 10 Air Yards Passes Over 10 Air Yards
Comp Pct 66.7% 35.3%
EPA/Play +0.12 -0.21
Passer Rating 93.3 66.3

The two areas the Browns can burn you are on the ground and in the short passing game. However, Gabriel has been one of the NFL's worst passers on downfield throws, ranking last among qualified quarterbacks in average air yards per attempt (5.9). The Browns QB has completed just 11 of his 31 throws over 10 air yards, the worst completion rate in the league (35.5%). For comparison, For a Patriots pass defense that has had some struggles, Sunday's game is a good opportunity to work on fixes to what ails them.

If you can stop the run and force Gabriel to throw downfield, that's a winning formula vs. a limited Browns passing attack. In the running game, the Browns major in outside zone and duo sequencing in Stefanski's West Coast offense, which branches off the Shanahan system. Most defenses match outside zone schemes with five or six-man fronts to put multiple defenders outside the guards to set the edge of the defense, forcing stretch runs back into the middle of the field.

Now, Cleveland has complements to their zone plays. When defenses play five or six-man fronts, they'll have fewer players off the line to fit the run, like in a 5-2 or 6-1 front. One play the Browns run when defenses spread out the line of scrimmage is called "blast," which is just power-lead, where the backside guard pulls to the MIKE linebacker and the fullback leads through the hole. The Browns also add an eligible offensive lineman above to get rookie RB Quinshon Judkins running downhill at the Dolphins defense for a 46-yard touchdown.

The Ohio State running back, whom the Browns drafted with the 36th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, is having a nice start to his career. Judkins ranks third in the league in rushing yards after contact (420) and has forced 21 missed tackles (tied for eighth among RBs). Cleveland will then script keepers off their run-actions to get easy throws for Gabriel, who also poses a threat to defenses with his slipperiness as a runner. Gabriel can create off-script in the drop-back pass game (see above), while the Browns also call some read-option and RPO plays.

Ultimately, the key to the game for the Patriots defense is to limit the Browns ground game, forcing Cleveland to open up the passing game. Along with WR Jerry Jeudy, who can have some big performances, the Browns also major in multiple tight end sets with rookie Harold Fannin Jr. and veteran David Njoku (when healthy). The Browns use 12-personnel with two tight ends at the second-highest rate in the NFL (45.4%), while the Pats rank 22nd in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends through seven weeks (61.3 YPG).

If you're looking for ways the Browns can hurt the Patriots defense, running offense through their backs and tight ends is their bread-and-butter, which seems like Cleveland's best course of action.

Key Matchups

LT Will Campbell vs. Browns EDGE Myles Garrett

Garrett is one of the best pass-rushing defensive ends in the history of football, and saying that is not hyperbolic. He's the complete package of power, length, and flexibility while ranking eighth in pass-rush win rate this season. Garrett can sink his hips to generate speed-to-power, uses a series of swipes and stabs to shorten the corner, and has patented his own pass-rush move called the "teleport," where he only needs two steps to cross the tackle's face to win inside. Campbell might not see a better rusher for the rest of his career after facing Garrett, who rushes over the left tackle on 84.9% of his snaps. There isn't a single offensive tackle who can consistently block Garrett 1-on-1, so expect the Patriots to do everything they can to slow him down: move the pocket, change-up blocking schemes, chips, double-teams, you name it.

WR Stefon Diggs vs. Browns CB Tyson Campbell

The Browns recently made an in-season trade to swap starting corners with the Jaguars, with Cleveland receiving Campbell for former starter Greg Newsome III. Pro-Bowl CB Denzel Ward doesn't seem to travel with the opposing No. 1 receiver with the Browns playing sides. As a result, the Pats could get Diggs some favorable matchups on Campbell or nickel CB Myles Harden. If he is kept clean in the pocket, QB Drake Maye should be able to find some holes in the Browns secondary.

EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson vs. Browns LT Cam Robinson

We could highlight either Browns tackle against Chaisson and edge-rusher Harold Landry, but we'll stick with the hot hand. Chaisson has 12 total pressures over the last two games, and Robinson ranks 66th out of 70 qualified tackles in PFF pass-blocking grade this season (44.4). This is another favorable matchup for Chaisson, who is on a heater, while Landry should have the upper hand on Browns RT Cornelius Lucas as well.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer

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