The Patriots passed a litmus test in their breakout win vs. the Bills last Sunday night, but now a different challenge presents itself for head coach Mike Vrabel's team against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.

In last week's Gameplan, we wrote about getting an accurate gauge on the Patriots relative to a playoff-caliber opponent in Buffalo. To their credit, the Pats passed that test with flying colors, upsetting the Bills in their place on primetime television. The big Sunday night win was a national coming-out party for second-year QB Drake Maye, while this Patriots team as a whole announced to the NFL world that they're ready to compete in the AFC in their first season under Vrabel.

Although the vibes are high coming off back-to-back wins, the Patriots have to make it count by taking care of business on Sunday against the one-win Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans, which is setting up to be a classic "trap" game for New England. You know, a second consecutive road game coming off an emotional win the week before where the Patriots lose to an inferior team. To really turn the corner as a football team, the Patriots can't let their guard down in NOLA.

Eventually, I promise to write some nice things about the Saints. Like all NFL teams, they have some talent on their roster, and first-year head coach Kellen Moore and DC Brandon Staley are capable schemers. However, with all due respect, New Orleans might be competing for the first-overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft after a 1-4 start. The Saints rank 31st in team DVOA with the 22nd-ranked offense, the 29th-ranked defense, and are dead-last in DVOA on special teams through five weeks.

New Orleans is starting 2024 fifth-round QB Spencer Rattler, who has been decent outside of one sloppy game against Seattle (Week 3), but likely isn't their future franchise quarterback. The Saints also have one foot in, one foot out of the old regime with recognizable holdovers such as RB Alvin Kamara, DE Cameron Jordan, and Pro-Bowl LB Demario Davis.

Overall, this is a rebuilding Saints roster trying to get a first-time head coach up and running. Last week, the Saints got their first win of the season in a 26-14 victory over the one-win Giants. New York turned the ball over on five consecutive possessions (really six counting a turnover on downs), and New Orleans managed to get just six points off those turnovers. Ultimately, it was enough to get Moore his first win as a head coach, but it wasn't a sharp performance by any means.

From a big-picture standpoint, New England has one of the easiest strengths of schedules in recent NFL memory based on the cumulative DVOA of their future opponents. If they build on the momentum from wins over the Panthers and Bills, the Patriots can get on a roll here. That said, complacency is their biggest enemy with their next three opponents, the Saints, Titans, and Browns, combining for a 3-12 record in the season's first five weeks. On Sunday, we'll find out if the Pats can avoid falling into the trap, which would say a lot about the football program in Foxboro.

Here are three keys to victory for the Patriots in their trip to New Orleans to take on the Saints with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Patriots Offense Key: Prep for Saints Match Zone Coverages and Schemed Pressures

In a role reversal, first-year head coach Kellen Moore tabbed former Chargers coach Brandon Staley as his defensive coordinator with the Saints.

Moore was Staley's offensive coordinator for one season when Staley was the Chargers head coach. The new Saints DC became a sought-after defensive guru as the Rams coordinator under Sean McVay during Los Angeles's run to a Super Bowl title in the 2021 season. Staley is one of the early adopters of basing his defense out of two-high safety shells on first and second down to load up vs. the pass while conceding the run, which some thought was analytically driven as the NFL turned pass-heavy.

With the Rams, Staley's defense was sixth in DVOA due to a terrific defensive line led by future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald. Donald and company could play a man short in the box because they were good enough to cover up for having fewer bodies to stop the run. However, Staley's defensive lines with the Chargers weren't as dominant as his Rams defenses, so LA was routinely among the NFL's worst run defenses.

Although he didn't work out as a head coach, Staley's a bright, defensive mind with some successful game plans against high-powered offenses. Plus, the arrow is pointing upward on this Saints defense. They were pesky against the Bills until Josh Allen put the game away late and forced five turnovers in their win over the Giants last week. Most notably, New Orleans has athletic linebackers led by Pro Bowler DeMario Davis, and bookend pass-rushers in Cameron Jordan and Carl Granderson.

Schematically, Staley is still running his 3-4 defense with a zone-match coverage system that plays out of lighter boxes. The Saints are among the league leaders in disguised pressure usage, calling a schemed pressure on 9.1% of their drop-backs. They also major in zone-match coverages, meaning they're matching vertical routes while converting to spot-drop zones when receivers break underneath the defense.

"The Saints do a good job of matching. They're going to play some zone and then play some two-deep. When they go to post-safety, they're going to match our routes, and they're good at playing the football," Maye told reporters this week. "I think it changes, more of a receiver mentality. Instead of depth and spacing, winning versus match coverage, winning versus man, and winning your one-on-ones is what it comes down to. It comes down to, for me, ball placement, get it out on time and making sure the football is in the right spot for them to catch and run or catch and make a play."

For example, here's the Saints defense playing zone-match cover-three against the mesh concept. At the bottom of the screen, the outside corner lines up over the flexed-out tight end. When he runs a shallow crosser, the corner passes off Bills TE Dalton Kincaid to the linebacker and safety in the middle of the field and immediately gets depth to close the post route from the other side of the formation. At the top of the screen, the outside corner passes off the shallow (WR Khalil Shakir) and then catches the receivers releasing on a vertical stem, plastering to Bills WR Keon Coleman. New Orleans then runs a stunt over the left side from a five-man pass rush front, closing the pocket on Allen for a third-down stop.

New Orleans and Staley shouldn't be overlooked from a scheme standpoint, as the mix of match zones and exotic pressures can be challenging to read out. The logical next question is, how do offenses attack the Saints match zones? Reading Saints defense hype after their 1-4 start probably sounds a bit over the top. After all, the stats suggest that the Saints' pass defense is vulnerable (21st in drop-back EPA).

In recent weeks, offenses have been having success with flooding New Orleans zones or running off the coverage with vertical routes to have the underneath routes fill in. The Saints are only giving up an explosive play on 7.3% of their opponents pass plays, ninth-best in the NFL, so you have to be willing to take the profits underneath there zone structures. In the first clip above, the Giants run fullback leak, where the deep post to the quarterback's left takes the outside corner out of the picture for the fullback's route to "leak" into the open space to flood the zone. On the next play, New York uses a 3x1 formation to run off coverage on the three-receiver side, opening space underneath the defense for the backside crossing route.

Although there are ways to attack the Saints defense, the film shows a unit starting to come together. Like the entire theme this week, the Patriots can't take this defense lightly.

Patriots Defense Key: Don't Let Rattler's Mobility, Shaheed's Speed Sneak Up on You

Spending the last few days watching Saints starting QB Spencer Rattler inside Moore's blended offensive system has been an interesting study.

After spending a year coordinating the Eagles offense, Moore is now calling plays in New Orleans as the head coach. The Saints HC has combined the shotgun elements he ran in Philly, such as designed QB runs and RPOs, with traditional under-center West Coast sequencing. The Saints major in outside zone and often run play-action with two and three-man route combinations to take deep shots with Rattler protected by extra blockers.

The results of the downfield passing have been mixed, with the Saints ranking last in the NFL in explosive pass rate (2.8%). The Saints QB mostly specializes in the short, quick passing game, ranking fourth in average time to throw (2.63s) and 28th in average air yards per pass attempt (7.1 yards), while Rattler is mobile enough to move the pocket, scramble and gain yards on designed runs.

From a personnel perspective, the Saints have some name brands at the skill positions: RB Alvin Kamara, WR Brandin Cooks, and WR Chris Olave. Kamara can still break tackles at a high rate and is challenging to cover out of the backfield on option routes. They also have underrated WR Rashid Shaheed, who has game-breaking speed. That said, the Saints offensive line has struggled. New Orleans is 30th in pass-blocking win rate and last in run-blocking win rate, giving the Patriots a clear advantage in the trenches. If there's a path to the Patriots coasting, it's their defensive line taking over against a short-handed Saints O-Line.

Looking at what they do well, the Saints gun-option plays gave the Bills and Giants defenses problems. Rattler has gained yards on read-option designs, such as counter bash and zone-reads, while the Pats defense needs to be aware of Shaheed, who can pop a big play at any time.

However, the kryptonite for the Saints offense is pressure, whether due to one-on-one losses along the offensive line or schemed rushes. The Bills gave the Saints fits with their simulated pressure package, with multiple downs where Buffalo generated unblocked pressures. It's unclear who is responsible for setting the protections for the Saints, but New Orleans had issues blocking the Bills exotic pressure package.

Admittedly, the Saints offense won't be as challenging as Josh Allen and the Bills. Still, New Orleans has decent skill players and enough scheme to sneak up on you, following suit with the trap game theme this week.

Key Matchups

LT Will Campbell vs. Saints EDGE Carl Granderson

There are several matchups in the trenches that are worth highlighting this week. First, Campbell hasn't been perfect at left tackle, but he's been pretty close with zero sacks allowed since the opener. Granderson is a twitched-up edge rusher with good length (34-inch arms), a skillset that could challenge Campbell. The one advantage that Campbell might have is that Granderson tends to get stalled out quickly by fast-firing punches, which is Campbell's specialty. So, expect Campbell to try to establish first meaningful contact as much as possible. As his 4.5 sacks suggest, Granderson can be a disruptive rusher.

RT Morgan Moses vs. Saints EDGE Cameron Jordan

At age 36, Jordan is still playing at a high level with 13 total pressures in the first five weeks. Jordan typically rushes over the right side, where he likes using a series of rush moves to beat right tackles (rip, cross chop, bull rush/long-arm stab). The Pats have been helping their tackles in the drop-back game with chips and half-slides. One would expect that to continue against two good edge rushers for New Orleans.

DTs Milton Williams/Christian Barmore vs. Saints RG Torricelli Simpkins III

If the Saints don't get starter Cesar Ruiz (ankle) back, this is your mismatch of the week, folks. It won't be a fair fight when New Orleans guards try to block Barmore and Williams. Last week, Simpkins allowed five total pressures against a host of Giants pass-rushers. The Saints have also converted former first-rounder Trevor Penning to left guard, and he's had some struggles. The Pats D-Line could take over this game.

CB Marcus Jones vs. Saints WR Rashid Shaheed

This is an excuse to write more about Shaheed, who will be a sought-after free agent next offseason if he's not tagged or extended by the Saints. Shaheed is a speed-slot with vertical stretch and schemed touch ability. The Saints will run him on verticals and motion plays, where his game-breaking ability is a major problem. Last week, Shaheed's top speed of 21.72 MPH was the top speed on a scoring play in the NFL this season (87-yard TD). If he becomes an unrestricted free agent, I'd definitely be interested in Shaheed, but so will the rest of the NFL.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer