The Patriots are preparing to host their first playoff game in over six years vs. the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night and this time head coach Mike Vrabel will be on the home team's sideline.
The big-picture view with New England back in the playoffs is about a lot of firsts for this era of Patriots football. Although he coached five playoff games as Titans head coach, it's Vrabel's first postseason game as head coach of the Patriots, and he's going into the Wild Card round with a 23-year-old quarterback playing in his first NFL playoff game. It's also the first playoff game for CB Christian Gonzalez, LT Will Campbell, and other Pats who were acquired during the team's three-year playoff drought. Vrabel and OC Josh McDaniels's playoff experience will help them prepare QB Drake Maye and other key contributors who are experiencing the playoffs for the first time for what's to come.
To pull out a win, Maye needs to play at the level he has all season, WR Stefon Diggs has to find the openings in the Chargers zone coverages, the Pats running back duo has to keep it rolling, and maybe most importantly, DTs Milton Williams and Christian Barmore must dominate a banged-up Chargers O-Line, while Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III, and Marcus Jones win their battles with Herbert's receivers in the passing game.
"In this league, your best players have to play well for you to win," Vrabel said last month. "We expect the quarterback's going to have to play well for us to win. Whoever we consider to be our best players, they have to play well in this league. That's what this thing comes down to."
Vrabel and the coaching staff must also elevate their performance. McDaniels will be calling plays against an impressive Chargers defense, coordinated by rising star Jesse Minter, who many believe is a future head coach. Vrabel and defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr need to devise a game plan to slow down star QB Justin Herbert while finding ways to exploit a Chargers offensive line missing its Pro Bowl tackles. Schematically, it's time to see what this staff has got in a win-or-go-home scenario.
Before we get into our matchup breakdown, Sunday night's Wild Card playoff game is as much about the Vrabel, Maye, and McDaniels trio rising to the occasion against Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh, Herbert, and company. New England needs their top dawgs and their braintrust to outperform their counterparts, which you feel pretty good about, given the coaching pedigree and the MVP season that Maye has put together.
Now is the time when we find out if this team is ready to compete for championships, the next box that Vrabel is aiming to check after winning the division and hosting a home playoff game for the first time since 2019, when Vrabel's Titans knocked the Patriots out of the postseason in what turned out to be Tom Brady's last game in New England. Now, the tournament begins.
Let's preview the chess match between the Chargers and Patriots with kickoff at 8:00 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night.
Offense Key: Generate Explosive Pass Plays vs. Stingy Chargers Pass Defense
Starting with the Patriots offense, QB Drake Maye's first-ever playoff game will come against a Chargers defense that's rolling in the second half of the season.
When he transitioned from head coach at the University of Michigan back to the NFL, Harbaugh brought his defensive coordinator, Jesse Minter, with him from Ann Arbor. Overall, the Chargers rank ninth in scoring defense (20.0), seventh in drop-back EPA, and fourth in rush EPA allowed. Plus, they're fifth in explosive pass play rate allowed, using zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL to prevent big plays (80.7%).
Schematically, Minter's defense majors in match quarters coverages, where the Chargers have four deep defenders across the field. Los Angeles plays quarters at the fourth-highest rate (25.6%) and is in split-safety coverages on 49.7% of their coverage snaps (third), complementing their split-safety zones with cover-three (33.7%). On early downs, they typically play spread formations out of four-man fronts and five-man fronts against run formations, while pivoting into pass-rush (load) fronts on third down.
As for their personnel, do-it-all safety Derwin James makes their scheme shine by playing the all-important nickel spot, which carries a lot of responsibility in run support and difficult zone assignments. Although he primarily plays in the slot, the five-time Pro Bowler moves around all three levels of the defense as a versatile chess piece. Los Angeles also has underrated pass-rusher Tuli Tuipulotu, who moves around the front, lining up both outside the tackles and over the interior O-Line as their pass-rushing weapon.
Future Hall of Famer Khalil Mack is still a productive two-way player vs. the pass (39 pressures) and run, Odafe Oweh adds some pass-rush juice on the interior, and they have some big run-stuffers inside that are tough to move (Tart, Hand, Caldwell). Lastly, in the front seven, LB Daiyan Henley is a rangy coverage linebacker who can play high-stress zone assignments. As for the secondary, CB Donte Jackson is having a good year on the outside, NCB Tarheeb Still plays the slot in their three-corner packages, and second-year CB Cam Hart is their other outside corner – it's a talented group.
Here's an example of the Chargers early-down quarters coverages: They have four defenders in the deep part of the field bracketing Houston's outside receivers and the underneath routes are matched like it's man coverage. Texans QB C.J. Stroud wants to work the C.O. side (choice-out) to his left, but it's well covered, so he comes off the frontside to throw the backside dig. However, S Elijah Molden has the dig bracketed to the inside and picks off the pass.
On third down, Los Angeles will also dial up pressure, generating unblocked rushers at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL this season (9.2%). In Week 17, the Chargers blitzed Stroud on over 40% of his second-half drop-backs, netting -0.42 EPA per drop-back (6-of-10, 59 yards).
In this clip, the Chargers bring their go-to quarters pressure scheme, dropping two defenders off the line of scrimmage into the short zone distribution while blitzing the nickel (James) and the boundary corner (Hart). James and Hart both blitzing creates a 2-on-1 for the running back, leaving Hart unblocked to the quarterback, which hurries Stroud into an incomplete pass.
With all their match-quarterback scheming, the Chargers coverages technically register as zone schemes, but with man-to-man principles. The No. 1 question in Sunday night's chess match between Minter and McDaniels is this: Will Los Angeles play zone vs. Maye, and, who wins the battle of the 'X' plays?
This season, Maye leads all qualified quarterbacks in EPA per drop-back against zone coverage (+0.29) and has a league-best 110.2 passer rating against zone schemes. The Pats QB also produced a 20-yard pass play on 13.6% of his drop-backs in the regular season, the highest mark in the NFL. In other words, you have a zone-based defense built to stop big plays against a big-play hunter who shreds zone – a strength-on-strength matchup.
If the Chargers stick to their zone coverage roots, the Texans, under old friend Nick Caley, who McDaniels knows well from Caley's days in New England, were able to hit two 'X' plays for touchdowns in their Week 17 win over the Chargers by occupying the safeties in the middle of the field to create one-on-one matchups.
For example, Houston calls a variation of the mesh concept here, where they have the intersecting crossing routes over the middle of the field running into a quarters coverage. The deep safeties attach to the crossers, which leaves Jackson in single coverage on the backside with rookie WR Jayden Higgins. Without safety help in the middle of the field, Higgins runs by Jackson on the big post, and Stroud throws over the top of quarters for a 75-yard TD. Could the Patriots replicate this quarters-beater with Kayshon Boutte or Kyle Williams? Possibly.
In Week 16, the Cowboys also attacked the Chargers quarters coverages with outside verticals. This time, Dallas gets star WR George Pickens matched up with Hart in single coverage on the backside. Pickens runs by Hart, who is essentially on an island without safety help, for a 38-yard TD.
The other way the Texans found some success was pairing their under-center duo runs with play-action passes. The Chargers rank 23rd against duo schemes (double teams), allowing 4.7 yards per carry and are also 21st in EPA against play-action. Above, you see the Texans get a nice push for a 10-yard run with duo blocking and then simulate that run-action to get the linebackers into the line of scrimmage to throw the play-action slant.
By attacking their zone schemes with deep shots against quarters and play-action sequencing vs. cover three, the Patriots could force the Chargers into more man coverage. Los Angeles plays more man-to-man on third downs (40.8%) but only plays 9.7% of their early-down coverage snaps in man schemes. Again, some of their quarters coverages have man-to-man principles, but they aren't built defensively to play a heavy amount of man coverage.
Statistically, Maye is adding +0.14 EPA per drop-back vs. man coverage, which is still eighth-best in the league but not as efficient as his +0.29 EPA per drop-back vs. zone. Between the quarterback's ability to drive the ball downfield into tight windows and McDaniels's scheming, New England's passing game is difficult to slow down with zone schemes. McDaniels is one of the best at scheming open receivers when defenses sit in zone and Maye can throw the deep ball over the top of zone coverages.
From this perspective, the Patriots have to be ready for Los Angeles to bring pressure if Maye starts dealing against their zones. As mentioned, Minter turned up the heat on Stroud after he threw for 185 passing yards on 18 attempts in the first half, dialing up zone pressures and cover zero blitzes, which took down Houston's shaky offensive line. New England will have to be prepared to beat pressure, especially cover zero, as that seems to be Minter's backup plan when a quarterback is having his way with the Chargers base schemes.
In the playoffs, styles win fights, and this matchup could come down to which team's strength wins out: Maye versus the Chargers in zone coverage. Whoever wins that chess match could force the other team to play left-handed, which might decide the winner of Sunday night's game.
Defense Key: Exploit the Chargers Banged Up Offensive Line and Attack the Football
Moving over to the other side of the ball, the Chargers wouldn't be in the playoffs without star QB Justin Herbert, who is covering up a lot for Los Angeles's offense this season.
Despite playing with a broken bone in his non-throwing hand, Herbert is still 13th in total QBR and has an elite skillset. He makes great plays from inside and outside the pocket, attacks all three levels of the field, and is a dangerous scrambler, ranking second among quarterbacks with 498 rushing yards. As he has for the Chargers many times in his career, Herbert can take over Sunday night's game.
That said, the Chargers lost Pro Bowl tackles Joe Alt (ankle) and Rashawn Slater (knee) for the season, and they've been searching for answers along the offensive line ever since. Los Angeles is last in pass-blocking win rate (54%) and 31st in run-blocking win rate (69%), with their struggles in the trenches sinking their offense to 24th in total EPA and 20th in scoring offense (21.6 PPG). To their credit, LA won 11 games with Herbert scoring just enough points to supplement a great defense.
Schematically, Harbaugh and Chargers OC Greg Roman are back together again after Roman worked for John Harbaugh in Baltimore. Previously, Roman built his scheme around electric runners at quarterback, Lamar Jackson and Colin Kaepernick. Jackson won his first NFL MVP with Roman as his play-caller and Kaepernick took the 49ers to the Super Bowl with the Harbaugh-Roman pairing. However, those were run-first offenses that majored in option plays to amplify their running QBs. Roman will occasionally pull out a read-option play, but it's not how Los Angeles typically runs the ball.
Although the roots for head coach and coordinator are in run-first offenses, Los Angeles doesn't run the ball at a high rate or particularly well. The Chargers have just a 37% run rate, 27th in the NFL, and are 23rd in rush EPA. They play with three wide receivers on 69.2% of their offensive plays, the sixth-highest rate in the league. Most of the time, the group on the field with Herbert is WR Ladd McConkey, WR Quentin Johnston, WR Keenan Allen, TE Oronde Gadsden, and first-round RB Omarion Hampton or RB Kimani Vidal.
Having said that, the Chargers offense does have some traditional Roman elements. For example, Los Angeles plays 29.5% of their snaps in two-back formations featuring FB Scott Matlock. Matlock is a 300-pound lead-blocker who has played both fullback and defensive line. The Chargers also lead the league in 20-personnel usage with 56 snaps, where there are three wide receivers, a running back, and Matlock without a traditional tight end. So, LA can play bully-ball and they also have the third-best third-down conversion rate. Between those two elements, the Chargers grind out wins with the second-highest time of possession in the NFL (32:32).
In the run game, the Chargers have unique blocking schemes in their two-back packages. For example, Roman has been running "crunch" or influence wham for years. Above, LA runs it out of 20-personnel, with Matlock whamming the play-side defensive tackle as linemen work up to the second level for a successful run. LA then calls play-action passes at the ninth-highest rate (16.6%), using similar formations to get Herbert open passing lanes.
Besides the quarterback making great plays, the Chargers also have some nifty motions to get McConkey free releases. McConkey comes in "cheat" motion to roll into his route against a two-high safety shell. With two vertical routes releasing to the same side of the field, the split-field safety can't stay over the top of both, and Herbert hits an open McConkey for six.
From this perspective, the biggest key to victory is the Patriots defensive line winning the battle in the trenches against the Chargers short-handed offensive line. New England must stop the run and pressure Herbert, who is a pedestrian 18th in EPA while under pressure (-0.39). Plus, Herbert has also fumbled five times since injuring his non-throwing hand after having only two fumbles in his first 12 games, so he's vulnerable in that regard. However, the Chargers QB is second on EPA vs. the blitz, only trailing Maye, so the Patriots need to find ways to get pressure without blitzing.
Expect to see the Patriots defensive line running stunt schemes against the Chargers O-Line. In particular, LA seemed to struggle with interior stunts on film, which seems like a good place to start for New England, with DT Milton Williams and running mate Christian Barmore creating havoc on the interior. Above, Houston runs a T/T stunt with the secondary in cover six and Herbert doesn't have enough time in the pocket to progress off the covered frontside to the backside receiver.
Obviously, the Texans have one of the best pass rushes in football, so their film is difficult to replicate. However, the Patriots got standout DT Milton Williams back from injury in Week 18, and the hope is that OLB Harold Landry III, LB Robert Spillane, and NT Khyiris Tonga will play on Sunday night. With their front seven fully healthy, the Pats can exploit the Chargers struggling offensive line.
Key Matchups
NCB Marcus Jones vs. Chargers WR Ladd McConkey
It'll be interesting to see the Patriots coverage plan against McConkey, who runs 63.6% of his routes from the slot. Typically, CB Christian Gonzalez hasn't traveled inside the slot, especially against shifty route-runners like McConkey. My guess is New England will mostly stick to sides, with Gonzalez taking McConkey when he's outside and Jones as the primary defender on the Chargers wideout when he's in the slot. McConkey is at his best running crossers, digs, and verticals, so expect some brackets when he's running routes from the slot.
Pats Safeties/Linebackers vs. Chargers TE Oronde Gadsden
Gadsden is a matchup problem who presents some issues for the Patriots, who have struggled against dynamic receiving tight ends. Gadsden started his college career as a wide receiver and then converted to tight end, where his ability to run the seams can be challenging for linebackers who are playing run actions. As a secondary option in their passing game, the Pats can't forget about Gadsden.
OTs Will Campbell & Morgan Moses vs. Chargers EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu
Tuipulotu is one of the league's most underrated edge rushers, ranking sixth in the NFL with 13.0 sacks and a team-high 70 pressures. The Chargers move the power rusher around the line of scrimmage, with almost an even amount of snaps over each tackle and 84 snaps over the interior offensive line. On the outside, Tuipulotu wins with pure power to dent the pocket and his quickness to slant into gaps on stunt schemes penetrates the interior. The first step is identifying where Tuipulotu is and then you have to block him.
WRs Kayshon Boutte/Kyle Williams vs. Chargers CB Cam Hart
The Patriots wide receivers are going to see single coverage on the outside, with the extra attention going to WR Stefon Diggs and TE Hunter Henry. A huge matchup will be Boutte/Williams vs. Hart, who is the weaker of the two outside corners for the Chargers. Hart has allowed a 45.5% catch rate on deep targets this season, so winning one or two vertical routes against LA's second outside corner would be huge.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
