The Patriots are heading to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday afternoon.
For head coach Mike Vrabel, Sunday's conference title game represents one of his final obstacles. Vrabel has won division titles, he has won Coach of the Year (2021), and he was one win away from the Super Bowl as Titans head coach in 2019, falling to Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and the eventual Super Bowl champs. Obviously, there's no shame in losing to an all-time great like Mahomes. Still, Vrabel has a golden opportunity to get over the hump and bring his team to the Super Bowl two weeks from Sunday's AFC title game in Santa Clara. For Vrabel, who might win his second AP Coach of the Year at the NFL Honors during Super Bowl week, it sure would be sweeter to be in San Fran for other reasons.
In a stunning turn of events, starting QB Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury late in last Sunday's overtime win over the Bills in the divisional round. Therefore, the Patriots will face backup QB Jarrett Stidham rather than Nix on Sunday.
Along with it being a crazy coincidence that their former draft pick will start against the Patriots, we haven't seen anything like this before. Stidham, who hasn't started a regular-season game since 2023, has four career starts, which are the fewest for any quarterback entering a conference championship game in NFL history. The only close comparison is Jeff Hostetler starting for the Giants for an injured Phil Simms, including winning Super Bowl XXV. Hostetler had five career starts heading into the 1990 NFC title game and was the Giants starter at that point in the season (Simm's injury happened in Week 15, not eight days before conference championship weekend). For those who are thinking it, Nick Foles started 36 career games before he took over for the Eagles in 2017 so this is truly a historic scenario for Denver and Stidham.
That said, we wouldn't expect the Broncos to be a pushover. For starters, Denver's defense is terrific and has kept them in close games all year (12-2 in one-score games), while DC Vance Joseph's scheme is extremely impressive. The Broncos finished the regular season fourth in scoring defense, fifth in DVOA, and led the league in sacks (68). This is as talented and well-coordinated a unit as any defense the Patriots have faced this season. If he hits the layups that Payton schemes open, doesn't turn it over, and Denver's defense does its part, the game will be competitive with Stidham under center.
However, the big unknown with Stidham is how the inexperienced backup will play in the clutch. With the Denver defense keeping them in it, Nix has shown impressive moxie in big moments. Nix has orchestrated a league-high seven game-winning drives and five fourth-quarter comebacks. If the Patriots can play with a lead in the second half and force Stidham to be the hero, you like their chances.
Let's break down the chess match in Sunday's AFC Championship Game vs. the Broncos at 3 p.m. ET.
Offense Key: Prepping a Pressure Plan for the Broncos Highly-Ranked Pass Rush
Regardless of what stat you're looking at, the Broncos defense ranks near the top of the league in every pass-rush metric: second in pressure rate (40.7%), third in win rate (45%), and first in sacks (68).
Denver disrupts opposing quarterbacks with a combination of aggressive play-calling and talent along the defensive line, led by two-time Pro Bowl EDGE Nik Bonitto (14.0 sacks, fifth in NFL) and first-team All-Pro DT Zach Allen (73 total pressures, most among DTs). On the opposite side, edge rusher Jonathon Cooper is no slouch, while veterans John Franklin-Myers, D.J. Jones, and Malcolm Roach can all beat interior blocks.
The Broncos also have the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in CB Patrick Surtain II anchoring the backend. Surtain is flanked by underrated nickel CB Ja'Quan McMillan, field CB Riley Moss, playmaking S Talano Hufanga, and rangy free safety P.J. Locke. At the second level, LB Dre Greenlaw and high-motor LB Alex Singleton are a solid tandem. In all, Denver has a trio of Pro Bowlers and three All-Pro nominees â it's a talented roster.
As for the scheme, Joseph is having the time of his life drawing up exotic pressures, match coverages, and man-blitzes. Denver plays the third-highest rate of man coverage (39.4%) and blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league (33.7%). Joseph is also on record saying that the Broncos don't play much spot-drop zone coverage, where defenders are just defending an area of the field. Instead, they're matching routes in their zones, so everything has man principles. The combination of talent and scheme has produced some gaudy stats for the Broncos defense: No. 1 in explosive play rate (6.7%), No. 1 in red-zone defense (42.6%), No. 2 on third down (33.8%), and No. 8 in total EPA. We can go on and on.
Before we get into the film, let's say the quiet part out loud about the Patriots: QB Drake Maye has to do a better job protecting the ball this week. Maye has six fumbles through two playoff games, and with Denver's ability to pressure the QB, the Broncos are going to be hunting for the ball after forcing five takeaways last week. Turning the ball over is an easy way to even the playing field against a backup quarterback. Having said that, Maye didn't play to his MVP standard in the first two playoff games, so maybe he's due.
Along those lines, giving Maye answers against pressure and giving him clues so that he knows where the pressure is coming from is key. The best way to do that is to have a sound pressure plan, especially for Denver's schemed rushes, such as creepers or simulated pressures, which they use often (4.1%). Creepers are when unexpected rushers blitz while expected rushers drop off the line, creating the deception of a blitz while maintaining numbers in coverage, whereas simulated pressures are when you show all-out pressure with five-plus rushers on the line, then cycle in and out of blitzes. Due to all their scheming, the Broncos produce an unblocked pressure rate of 9.8% (third in the NFL).
For example, the Broncos run a replacement blitz where the edges drop into coverage and blitz Singleton and Greenlaw from the second level. The Jags slide the line to the three defenders on the line of scrimmage, so the center opening to the right opens a pathway for Singleton to apply immediate pressure. Lawrence gets the ball out on the swing pass to the back, but the edge who dropped out of the rush (Elliss) is there to make the stop after a 2-yard gain.
Denver will also run simulated pressures out of its mugged fronts, where its two linebackers line up in the A-gaps on the line of scrimmage. At the snap, Greenlaw drops out of the rush into the short zone distribution to form a five-man pressure that includes a stunt over the left side. The coverage takes away Lawrence's downfield options and he's brought down for a sack.
Along with scheming up pressure at a high level, the Broncos are impressive in coverage. Above, the Bills are running one of their drop-back staples: mesh-rail. Denver was ready for the crossing routes over the middle with a "cut" coverage where Surtain falls off the crosser and hands it off to the linebacker (Singleton), which allows Surtain to clamp down on the backside route while Hufanga matches the back out of the backfield. Allen doesn't have anywhere to go with the ball and eventually takes a coverage sack.
The Broncos have great players and an outstanding defensive scheme, but there are voids in every coverage and weaknesses in every team. Looking at the Bills tape, Buffalo found success operating from under center. The Broncos are built defensively to combat the drop-back passing game, and although their run metrics are good (eighth in rush EPA), their defensive front is on the smaller side. Jones is their biggest defensive tackle at 305 pounds, while Bonitto is listed at only 240, so the Pats might be able to play bully ball.
Buffalo ran 38 plays with a 55.3% success rate while adding +0.40 EPA per drop-back from under center. The Bills have the personnel to play that brand of football, but a late-season resurgence for New England's rushing attack, led by RB Rhamondre Stevenson, could come in handy. Buffalo used motion at the snap as well to gain numbers in the run game, knowing that Denver would match those motions in man coverage, taking a defender out of the run fit on schemes such as power-lead, split-flow zone, lead-toss, and duo.
For instance, the Bills motion WR Mecole Hardman above and Hardman takes McMillan with him since the Broncos are in man coverage. Buffalo then runs duo with double-teams on the interior, and with only Moss to force the run back inside, RB James Cook bounces the run to the outside for a 12-yard gain.
The Bills then scripted play-action passes off their successful runs, with Allen averaging 11.6 yards per play-action pass attempt (9-of-11, 128 yards). Buffalo also moved the pocket successfully to get Allen away from the pass rush. In the first clip above, the Bills run Cook fast into the flat against man coverage and Singleton gets picked off (24 yards). The Bills also ran deeper routes off their run-actions, hitting the sail concept (go-corner route) for a big play in the second clip.
Every game eventually becomes a drop-back passing game, especially on third down. At that point, the Patriots will need to win 1-on-1 against man coverage. Buffalo was able to do that a few times by hunting matchups (TE vs. safety in the slot) or attacking leverage (condensed splits). Still, you don't want to live in a drop-back world against this Broncos defense, so getting into an early-down rhythm with the run+play-actions is key.
If the Patriots can limit their exposure to Denver's exotic pressure schemes, which usually come out on third-and-pass plays, New England can move the ball against this defense.
Defense Key: Don't Overlook a Backup and Put Jarrett Stidham in the Blender
The biggest challenge for the Patriots heading into Sunday's game is preparing for a quarterback who hasn't thrown a pass in the NFL in over two seasons.
You can go back to Stidham's two starts with the Broncos and Payton in 2023, or his preseason tape, but there's no way of knowing how Payton is going to call the game. There's one thing we know from studying Stidham since his college days as a Pats draft pick: he has arm talent. The Broncos QB can push the ball downfield to open receivers and flashes the ability to put the ball where he wants from clean pockets. Stidham is a total wild card due to his lack of game tape, but he's a capable thrower in the right environment.
The Broncos also have some uncertainty at the skill positions. Denver will have Pro Bowl wideout Courtland Sutton, but the availability of deep-threat Troy Franklin (hamstring) and rising rookie Pat Bryant (concussion) is unknown. Bryant and Franklin both practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday, so it appears that they have a chance to play on Sunday. Behind their banged-up receivers, the Broncos have Lil'Jordan Humphrey, and return man Marvin Mims. Mims has great speed to stretch the field but is more of a gadget player or go-ball specialist on offense.
At tight end, Adam Trautman is their traditional in-line option while pass-catching TE Evan Engram is basically a big slot receiver. In the backfield, rookie scat-back RJ Harvey is a fun player. Harvey is dangerous on check-downs and underneath routes because he can turn short passes into longer gains. Denver is also hopeful that lead-back J.K. Dobbins will be activated off injured reserve this week, which would be a huge boost for their early-down rush offense that hasn't been the same since Dobbins' injury.
Without their starting quarterback, the strength of the Broncos offense is its offensive line (pending health at center). LT Garrett Bolles and RG Quinn Meinerz are first-team All-Pros, RT Mike McGlinchey has had a solid season, and LG Ben Powers is an experienced road-grader. Broncos starting center Luke Wattenberg (shoulder) is also trending toward a return off injured reserve. If the Patriots live in standard four-man rushes, Denver can likely provide clean pockets for Stidham, ranking eighth in pass-blocking win rate and fourth in run-blocking win rate â the best line the Pats have faced yet.
From a play-calling standpoint, the biggest unknown is if Stidham has enough athleticism to execute the movement plays that are a major part of the Nix offense. The Broncos call designed rollouts at the second-highest rate (14.3%) and Nix throws on the run at the highest rate among qualified quarterbacks (25.4%). The Broncos injured starter is a nimble runner with a compact release and the ability to throw off-platform. Nix is always moving around. Like, always. To the point where the franticness of his playing style gives some ball knowers agita. But it does give the Broncos offense another dimension, as he can scramble for first downs and create plays on the move.
The other unknown is how much Denver can pivot away from its pass-heavy approach. The Broncos rank seventh in drop-backs per game (39.5), eighth in early-down pass rate (55.8%), and are just 16th in rush EPA. Last week, Denver only attempted 10 traditional runs to 50 drop-backs. Denver has built its offense around the passing game, which doesn't seem like a great formula with a backup quarterback.
Looking at what little tape we have on Stidham, he seems capable of executing the Broncos bootleg concepts, which are a huge part of their offense. However, he's not the thrower on the move or play extender that Nix is, so this will likely be a more traditional offense than it is with Nix.
When it becomes a drop-back game, Payton has a few old reliables. Given that Stidham has one week to prepare for this game, one would think that Payton will lean on the core concepts that Stidham ran during camp and the preseason. The Broncos head coach loves calling in-breaking route combinations such as "dagger" and "Y cross," where Stidham will have a clear picture to throw to his open 1-on-1 matchup, with the backside go route also being an option when the defense plays with a single-high safety.
The Broncos also give the quarterback coverage reads to work one side of the concept. Above, Payton has the double digs frontside (left) with the corner-flat to the two-receiver side (right). The digs are a good single-high beater for Stidham, while the corner-flat beats cover-two. With the defense playing cover six, Stidham works the cover-two side and hits the flag pattern for a nice gain.
As for how the Patriots defense will approach things, my guess is they won't change much because if it ain't broke, don't fix it. That means similar first-down tendencies with increased man coverage and blitzes, simulated pressures (cover zero), and disguised zone coverages. Typically, the rule of thumb with inexperienced quarterbacks is to spin the dial, which New England has been doing anyway. More specifically, making Stidham read disguised coverages with different pre-and-post-snap pictures.
Although the Pats have been great in man coverage during the playoffs, man schemes are often easier to read for quarterbacks because they can just pick on certain matchups. In other words, man coverage is more on receiver separation, contested catches, and proper ball placement. When you play zone, it becomes a thinking man's game. Remember, Stidham hasn't played meaningful snaps with any of these receivers and gets close to zero first-team reps in practice. So, test them to be on the same page while keeping an eye on the quarterback to create turnovers.
In the pass rush, New England is generating pressure on only 28.6% of its four-man rushes during the playoffs, but that rate increases to 47.8% when it blitzes. The Pats blitzes, which they've increased from 27.6% in the regular season to 40.6% in the postseason, have worked. Now, they'll face a quarterback who hasn't seen a live rush in a regular-season game in over two years, let alone a playoff game of this magnitude.
Given the success they've had with the formula and Stidham being thrust into a starting role, one would expect the Patriots to throw the kitchen sink at the Broncos QB on Sunday.
Key Matchups
LT Will Campbell vs. Broncos EDGE Nik Bonitto
We won't belabor the point about Campbell's performance to start these playoffs. Unfortunately, it doesn't get any easier for the rookie left tackle, as Bonitto is one of the best speed rushers in the game. The good news is that Bonitto is not one of these long, powerful rushers, but he can win with pure speed and has arguably the best "ghost" rush in the NFL (fake a bull rush, then dip and rip around the edge). He can also convert speed-to-power to dent the pocket and has great instincts to find the ball. Campbell's ability to match Bonitto's speed will be tested. Expect plenty of chips to counter that.
LG Jared Wilson vs. Broncos DT Zach Allen
After getting somewhat of a reprieve last week, the rookie left guard is getting thrown right back into the fire this week. Allen led all defensive tackles in pressures with his go-to swim move that he has taught to Franklin-Myers. Wilson has had some issues with that move when he sets aggressively to bring the fight to bigger DTs. Allen already lines up often over the left guard and that should continue on Sunday.
WR Kayshon Boutte vs. Broncos CB Riley Moss
With the reigning DPOY on one side (Surtain) and McMillan having a great season in the slot, Moss is "Waldo" in this matchup: find where he is and go at him. Moss knows he's going to get targeted, which he has 119 times this season (most in the NFL). He is prone to penalties (12) and has given up nine deep balls (9-of-28) compared to Surtain's outstanding coverage on deep targets (1-of-13). If there's someone the Patriots can go after over the top, it's Moss.
CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Broncos WR Courtland Sutton
The Patriots didn't have Gonzalez shadow any of the Texans wideouts with star WR Nico Collins (concussion) out. However, that could change with Sutton, who is headed to his first Pro Bowl as the clear top dog in the Broncos passing attack. Sutton runs a vertical route tree of hitches, slants, digs, and vertical routes while accounting for 21.3% of Denver's targets. Stidham's best chance at big plays will likely be go balls to Sutton, especially if Franklin (hamstring) and Bryant (concussion protocol) are unavailable.â
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
