With the Patriots riding an emotional high from clinching their first division title since 2019, New England wraps up the regular season by hosting the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.

Before we get into the matchup, let's discuss what's at stake for the Patriots. By winning the AFC East last Sunday, New England is guaranteed at least one home playoff game, and due to their 13-3 record, they can't fall any lower than the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs. With a win this Sunday, the Pats will lock up at least the No. 2 seed but could climb to the No. 1 overall seed if the Chargers upset the Broncos. If the Patriots lose to Miami and the Jaguars win, Jacksonville would leapfrog New England for the No. 2 seed (conference record tiebreaker).

The Patriots are headed to the postseason and will host a playoff game at Gillette Stadium, whether that's in the Wild Card or divisional round. There are also several permutations of matchups New England could draw, with the Chargers as their most likely first-round playoff opponent if they play on Wild Card weekend. The Patriots could also host the Bills or Texans, depending on how the chips fall in Week 18. Obviously, the Patriots can only control what they can control: Sunday's game vs. the Dolphins. ​

After starting 1-6, the Dolphins are 6-3 over their last nine games, winning four games in a row to briefly climb back into the playoff picture. However, it was too little too late for Miami, as they'll miss the playoffs for the second straight year, leading to uncertainty in Miami Gardens. After firing former GM Chris Grier mid-season and benching starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, the future of head coach Mike McDaniel is uncertain following back-to-back losing seasons. Miami made the playoffs in each of the first two seasons under McDaniel, but he has never won a playoff game as the Dolphins head coach.

Still, the Dolphins are a step up in competition from the Jets last week. Since Week 8, Miami is a respectable 13th in DVOA on defense and 18th in offense. Over the last two games, the Dolphins have turned to seventh-round rookie QB Quinn Ewers, who is 16th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in drop-back EPA. So, they're more a league-average operation than a bottom-feeder, as their 7-9 record would indicate.

Last week, we wrote about using the final two weeks as a tune-up for the postseason. Unfortunately, the Jets didn't offer much resistance, but if the Dolphins are motivated to play on a cold winter day in Foxborough, their explosive offense presents some real schematic challenges, as does their disguise-heavy defense. This week, there's enough there to say Miami could be a true warmup to what the Patriots will face in the playoffs.

Let's preview the chess match between the Patriots and Dolphins in Sunday's regular-season finale with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.

Offense Key: Prepping for the Dolphins Explosive Run+Play-Action Offensive Scheme

Although opinions are all over the map about McDaniel as a head coach, nobody around the league doubts the Dolphins head coach's ability to build a productive offensive scheme. ​

During his time in Miami, McDaniel has been one of the league's best schemers on the offensive side of the ball, causing conflict for second-level defenders in particular, by marrying the run and play-action passing game together. When you face the Dolphins offense, you know you're going to get plenty of eye candy: motion, false pullers, misdirection, and play-action. Plus, a lot of team speed at the skill positions, even without star WR Tyreek Hill (IR).

Although the Patriots won't have to worry about Hill, the Dolphins still have star playmakers Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane to bring to the track meet. Achane is having a terrific season, leading all ball carriers with 40 explosive runs this season. Waddle can still ball, as he's within 90 yards of going over 1,000 yards for the fourth time in his career, and the Dolphins also have speedy gadget receiver Malik Washington and newcomer TE Greg Dolchich.

After hitting a tipping point with Tagovailoa following a 28-15 loss to the Steelers in Week 15, the Dolphins made the difficult decision to turn the keys over to Ewers. Ewers was the quarterback at Texas a year ago for the Longhorns' run to the College Football Playoff semifinals, but fell to the seventh round because of concerns about his physical tools as an undersized pocket passer with limited mobility at 6-2, 214 pounds.

However, Ewers can be a decisive decision-maker who is accurate to the first two levels in a play-action heavy offense. Over the last two weeks, Ewers' film has been better than expected, especially in the first halves of games where the Dolphins are propping him up with great opening scripts: he looks poised, is seeing the field well, and is playing in rhythm. Miami is scheming up explosiveness in their passing by spamming play-action with motion and window dressing. In the last two games, the Dolphins lead the NFL in play-action rate (20.5%), are second in run+play-action usage (71.4%), and fourth in motion rate (76.4%) – basically, anything to keep Ewers out of traditional drop-back passing.

As a result of on-time quarterback play and scheme, the Dolphins have come out like gangbusters in their last two first halves, producing the third-highest EPA per play output in the opening two quarters. As the chart above shows, their efficiency plummets in the second half when the script runs out, but the Dolphins scoring 17 first-half points against the Bucs was enough to come away with a 20-17 win in Week 17.

The Dolphins have a fast-starting offense that plays most of its snaps in heavy personnel groupings, can run the ball effectively (8th in rush EPA), and hits big plays off play-action. On paper, that's not a great matchup for a Patriots defense that struggles with opponents' opening scripts, has fallen to 19th in rush EPA allowed, and is middle-of-the-pack against play-action.

The foundation of the Dolphins explosive offense is a productive run game. Miami majors in two-back formations with standout FB Alec Ingold as a chess piece in their offense. Above, the Dolphins bring Ingold in motion at the snap to give him a head of steam into his block, then have the play-side receiver crack the end with Ingold kicking out the play-side corner to get Achane loose. Achane avoids some backfield penetration on the crack block and is gone for a 48-yard touchdown.

Miami then has bootleg concepts that they dial up off their outside runs, whether that's half-boot actions to hit downfield routes (first clip) or full boots (second clip) to hit tight ends releasing into the flats. Either way, the boots look the same as their run plays, making it difficult for second-level defenders to read the play in its initial stages. By the time they react, it's too late, and the Dolphins have changed the point of attack for easy yards.

Along with sequencing run-actions from under center, the Dolphins also run these actions out of shotgun. Above is a Dolphins staple since McDaniel arrived in Miami. Achane motions in the backfield for Ewers to execute the "spinner" fake, and then he has two routes to his right, with the inside crosser clearing out space for the outside in-breaker. Again, the linebackers are scrambling to get to their landmakers, and Ewers hits Waddle for a 16-yard gain.

We could show countless examples of the Dolphins hammering runs and play-action passes over the last two weeks. Plus, Ewers has had his moments in the drop-back passing game. Overall, Ewers only has a 34.4% drop-back success rate without play-action, but he's made some impressive throws from the pocket.

For example, Ewers makes the right read to get to Achane against a linebacker on the juke route vs. a two-high shell for a 10-yard gain in the first clip. Then, he throws Dulchich open on the other side of the short zone-dropper for a touchdown on the following play, cancelling out a 2nd-and-20 to find the end zone – that's impressive processing for a young quarterback.

Although the Dolphins are out of the playoff picture, McDaniel's offense is still burning defenses because of its nuanced play design, and Ewers has been a pleasant surprise. Statistically, the Dolphins rookie has struggled in the drop-back passing game and against man coverage. The struggles versus man coverage likely stem from the fact that play-action is less effective when defenses play man-to-man because the defensive backs aren't worried about playing the run, whereas zone-dropping linebackers can be put in a blender by play-action. Ewers has also yet to complete a pass over 20 air yards in his two starts (0-for-4).

My guess is the Patriots will take their chances with Pro Bowl CB Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III, and NCB Marcus Jones playing single coverage against the Dolphins receivers, unlocking their linebackers and safeties to play aggressively in the box as much as possible.

Defense Key: Prepping for Dolphins Split-Safety Coverages and Creeper Schemes ​

Since the first matchup between these two teams was over three months ago, we didn't do a deep dive into how the game went when the Patriots beat the Dolphins in Week 2. ​

Although a lot has changed since that matchup, New England's victory down in Miami was an early statement win for QB Drake Maye and head coach Mike Vrabel. Maye was terrific on that Sunday afternoon, adding +0.57 expected points (96th percentile) by going 19-of-23 for 230 passing yards and three total touchdowns. Schematically, the big theme of that game was the Patriots taking down Miami's zone coverages with moving pockets, and hunting matchups with their running backs against the Dolphins linebackers in man coverage.

In Week 2, Maye was 14-of-16 for 184 passing yards against the Dolphins zone coverages. Maye also had five successful bootleg drop-backs, going 3-of-3 for 39 yards and a touchdown, along with two positive gains on scrambles when the Patriots moved the pocket. Above, New England runs a bootleg concept called "Y Leak," where they attack a cover-three zone with TE Austin Hooper leaking out of the trash around the line of scrimmage into the open void created by WR Kyle Williams running a clear-out post route to occupy the deep zone defenders. ​

At that point, the Dolphins defense had several new faces in their secondary. During their 6-3 stretch over their last nine games, Miami's defense is 13th in total DVOA and fifth in rush EPA. Although the Dolphins pass rush is just 26th in team pressure rate (29.9%), their defensive front is stingy against the run, with defensive tackles Kenneth Grant (first-round pick), Zach Sieler, Jordan Phillips, and Zeek Biggers being difficult to move on the interior. Outside of veteran edge rusher Bradley Chubb, the Dolphins haven't rushed the passer or defended the pass well, ranking 18th in EPA per drop-back.

Dolphins DC Anthony Weaver runs a zone-based coverage system that majors in cloud coverages (34%, 2nd in NFL). Cloud coverages, like cover two and cover six, mean there are two deep safeties putting a lid on the defense with "cloud" corners underneath the deep zones. Miami plays cover-two on 27.4% of its defensive snaps, the highest rate in the NFL. Weaver also dials up "creeper" pressures at the second-highest rate in the league (5.6%). Creepers are when a typical pass-rusher, usually on the line of scrimmage, drops into coverage while a suspected coverage player blitzes from the back seven to creep up on the offense.

For example, the Dolphins show a five-man front with a single-high safety in the play above. At the snap, the two outside linebackers drop out of the rush, and LB Tyrell Dodson blitzes up the middle while the secondary falls into a Tampa-2 (cover two) zone. Dodson comes through the line unblocked to apply pressure on Bengals QB Joe Burrow, and Burrow takes a sack.

​Along with their cover-two zone exotics, the Dolphins will also play more man coverage on third down, ratcheting up their man-to-man rate to 40.8% on late downs. Above, the Dolphins play two-man, the coverage the Bills used in the second half against the Patriots in Week 15. With the two-deep safeties over the top of man coverage, Burrow feels some heat from the T/E stunt over the left side and throws incomplete on the out-breaker to WR Ja'Marr Chase.

​One would think that the Patriots will see more of Miami's two-deep safety zones than they did in Week 2, when Maye was 9-of-11 for 132 passing yards against single-high safety coverages. Another thing that shows up on film with the Dolphins is their struggles defending the pass in the low red zone, mainly staying assignment-sound against pre-snap motion.

In the first clip above, the Bucs motioned WR Emeka Egbuka into a three-receiver bunch, and the Dolphins didn't sort it out properly, leaving WR Mike Evans wide open for six. In the next clip, the Bengals motion RB Chase Brown to form a four-receiver side and snap the ball, leading to a coverage bust where Brown is left wide open for a touchdown. When the Patriots get down near the goal line, expect the Patriots to test Miami's communication with motion.

Like the Dolphins offense, Miami's defense should present more schematic challenges than the Jets did last week, giving the Patriots a nice tune-up game before the postseason.

Key Matchups​

CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle ​

Gonzalez didn't play in the first matchup due to his hamstring injury, but he will be active this time around to face off against the Dolphins game-breaking receiver. Waddle has the speed to beat you deep, but it's his work at the top of the route that's the most impressive, using his vertical juice to open corners up for horizontal route breaks on slants, posts, and outs. With the defenders in the box in tough binds against the Dolphins run-actions, Gonzalez and CB Carlton Davis III will be on islands at times in this game.

DT Milton Williams vs. Dolphins LG Jonah Savaiinaea

According to reports, there's an alternate universe in which the Patriots drafted Savaiinaea over RB TreVeyon Henderson in the second round last offseason. Savaiinaea has struggled in his rookie season, allowing six sacks to lead all guards, and his power-oriented playing style might not be the best fit for Miami's zone-heavy schemes. Hopefully, Williams can return to knock some rust off before the playoffs.

LT Will Campbell/Vederian Lowe vs. Dolphins EDGE Bradley Chubb

Although the Dolphins have struggled to generate pressure, Chubb leads the team with 8.5 sacks and 45 total pressures, including a fourth-quarter strip-sack of Baker Mayfield last week. Chubb is a power rusher who uses long-arm stabs and rips to dent pockets, usually rushing on left tackles. If he returns this week, Campbell handled Chubb in Week 2, allowing just 45 total pressures against the veteran. On the other side, RT Morgan Moses will see speed-rusher Chop Robinson, whose first-step explosiveness is tough to match off the ball.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer