After clinching a playoff spot in Baltimore last week, the "road warrior" Patriots finish out their regular-season road slate against the Jets in the Meadowlands on Sunday afternoon.

There are a few different ways to look at Sunday's trip to face the three-win Jets, which admittedly doesn't have as much juice as New England's last two games. The first one is that the NFL is an any-given-Sunday league, escpecially this season. Last week, the Bills escaped the Browns in Cleveland, while the Texans had their hands full with the Raiders. With the Patriots coming off an emotional comeback win to clinch their first playoff berth since 2021, they can't let their guard down against a divisional opponent.

Speaking of the division, another angle is that the Patriots still need to close out the AFC East and are vying for seeding in the AFC playoffs. The Patriots control their own destiny, with wins over the Jets and Dolphins (Week 18) earning them a division title. However, the Bills host the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles this weekend, and the Pats can win the division with a win/tie and a Bills loss to Philly in the late afternoon window. If they take care of business in the Meadowlands, the Pats could be scoreboard watching on their flight home from New Jersey.

As for seeding in the AFC, there's a path for New England to earn a first-round bye as the No. 1 overall seed, but they have to get some help from the Chiefs or Chargers, Denver's next two opponents. The Broncos own the tiebreaker over the Patriots, so New England needs to finish with a better record than Denver to be the No. 1 seed, while the Bills (11-4), Jaguars (11-4), and Chargers (11-4) are right there as well. Ultimately, the Patriots need to keep winning and let the chips fall where they may in terms of seeding and postseason matchups.

The last angle we'll highlight is using the last two weeks against non-playoff opponents to fine-tune for the postseason. The Jets will attack weaknesses that the Bills and Ravens might've exposed, such as the Pats run defense or their passing offense vs. certain coverages. By getting more in-game reps against repeat schemes being used against them, the Patriots can work on things for the playoffs. To that end, we'll have to see who is available for the Patriots. New England has three players in concussion protocol (Henderson, Boutte, Wilson), and others are banged up. Plus, DT Milton Williams (ankle) and LB Robert Spillane's (ankle) statuses are still uncertain, with Williams returning to practice this week.

Before we get into the Xs and Os, here's a quick refresher on the Jets, who have had some changes since Week 11. Since the Patriots win on Nov. 13, New York benched QB Justin Fields for undrafted rookie Brady Cook. Jets first-year head coach Aaron Glenn also parted ways with former defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, tabbing up-and-comer Chris Harris to run his defense in the interim. The Jets are also playing without star WR Garrett Wilson (IR), and they traded CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams earlier this season – it's a full-on rebuild in Florham Park.

Having said that, one area the Jets are dangerous is on special teams, where they're the top-ranked unit in DVOA and kickoff return average (30.1), while they're seventh in punt return average (13.4). On Wednesday, head coach Mike Vrabel broke down the Jets impressive return units under special teams coordinator Chris Banjo.

"Special teams have been a very, very strong point for these guys," Vrabel said. "Great scheme, excellent players, very good returners. We'll have to cover with a purpose this week. Obviously, they have a running back that really runs through arm tackles, and has done a great job of doing that. So, as much as they kick away from Kene [Nwangwu], now [Isaiah] Williams is getting a lot of those. So, we'll have to make sure that we're good, that the space is limited, and again, one guy's probably not going to be able to get him down. So, making sure that we're matching everything that they do from a special teams standpoint. Critical phase."

Let's preview the chess match between the Patriots and Jets in the Meadowlands on Sunday.​

Offense Key: Preparing for What Worked for the Jets Defense in Week 11 Matchup

The Patriots offense and QB Drake Maye mostly had their way with the Jets defense in the Week 11 matchup, scoring 27 points in a double-digit win on a short week late in the season.

Maye was spectacular against New York's defense on that Thursday night, with a near flawless performance, posting 11 'plus' plays in my charting. Maye finished the game 25-of-34 for 281 passing yards and a touchdown. In the advanced stats, Maye added +0.29 expected points in the first game vs. the Jets, which is in the 78th percentile, so Maye was superb against the Jets by any measure of his play in Week 11.

That said, the Jets did some things that worked. The Pats QB torched the Jets zone coverages, particularly their cover-two and cover-three zones, going 17-of-18 for 208 yards while adding +0.55 expected points. However, Maye wasn't quite as efficient when the Jets played man coverage (see above), and the Jets played a few downs in drop-8 coverage where they fared better than their standard zones. Given how well Maye managed against the Jets zone coverages, it would stand to reason that New York could play more man-to-man this time around.

However, New York's defense has undergone some significant changes since that Week 11 meeting. Harris is a hot name on the coaching carousel as a defensive coordinator and possibly a future head coach. It's possible that Glenn knew it wasn't working with Wilks and that Harris could get poached in the offseason, so he's giving Harris a four-game audition to be the Jets coordinator in 2026.

Still, to make this move in-season speaks to how much the Jets defense has struggled. In Detroit, Glenn ran an aggressive defense that was near the top of the league in man coverage and blitz rate. This season, New York's personnel has struggled to transition from a zone-heavy scheme (Seattle-3) under former coach Robert Saleh, to Glenn's system, while the Jets also traded standout DT Quinnen Williams and star CB Sauce Gardner. As a result, the Jets defense is 30th in DVOA and 29th in pass EPA allowed.

In the first game with Harris calling plays, the Jets ran a zone-heavy plan with five-man fronts (3-4 principles) in their loss to the Saints. New York played 83.6% of their passing downs in zone coverage, while only blitzing Saints QB Tyler Shough on 11 of his 54 drop-backs (20%). The Jets majored in cover three (20 drop-backs), while mixing in cover two and quarters – all coverages Maye tore up in Week 11.

Although the Jets defense is in flux, they had some successful downs on defense in Week 11. For example, the Jets held Maye to 6.6 yards per pass attempt in eight-man coverage drop-backs. Above, New York plays the down in man-free coverage (cover one), rushing six defenders to keep Maye in the pocket with one deep safety. The rush forces Maye to get rid of the ball quickly, while the coverage forces him to target WR Kyle Williams outside the numbers. Maye throws a back-shoulder fade while Williams runs a go route, and the two aren't on the same page.

The other man coverage scheme the Jets had some success with was cover zero, with Maye going 1-of-2 for three yards when the Jets brought all-out pressure. In this clip, the Jets overload the Pats empty protection by rushing six defenders, with the Pats protection sliding to the right, creating a 2-on-1 for the left tackle. The blitz generates a free runner, so Maye has to get rid of the ball quickly, and WR DeMario Douglas is tackled for just a 3-yard gain. ​

Lastly, the Jets also dropped eight into coverage on a few occasions after showing pre-snap pressure. New York dropped the rushing threats off the line of scrimmage into a cover-two zone, and Maye worked the seam-dig (dagger) concept to his left. Maye wants to hit WR Stefon Diggs on the seam-splitter between the two-deep safeties, but Diggs just can't reel in the tough catch.

Admittedly, hyping the Jets struggling defense against the high-powered Patriots offense is a tough sell. However, we've seen New England's offense have some trouble with man-to-man and drop-8 coverages. At worst, the Jets could make the game competitive by pulling those same levers, but it could also be good to get some in-game reps against the current strategy circulating against the Patriots offense in recent weeks.

Defense Key: Stopping the Run and Handling the Jets 3x1 Passing Formations

Moving over to the other side of the ball, the Jets future starting quarterback probably isn't on their current roster, with New York likely going back to the QB carousel next offseason.​

In the meantime, rookie QB Brady Cook is finishing out the string for New York, who still has OC Tanner Engstrand calling plays. Earlier this season, we were complimentary of Engstrand because he was scheming the best he could with the Jets current personnel, losing star WR Garrett Wilson and having limited resources outside of him. Although he's not working with much, Engstrand hasn't been hitting many "easy" buttons, such as under-center runs, play-actions, or moving pockets for Cook. Even within one score, the Jets are 27th in under-center rate and 30th in play-action rate.

The best element of this Jets team is their run game and offensive line, with star RB Breece Hall ranking 11th with 24 explosive runs. New York is also a respectable 17th in run-blocking win rate, with two first-round tackles, Olu Fashanu and 2025 first-rounder Armand Membou. As head coach Mike Vrabel said this week, the Jets can be a physical group with an explosive running back.​

"They move people. I like the way they play. I like their play demeanor. They've got two really good, young, talented tackles. Guards try to finish you. So again, they've got speed, Breece Hall can make you miss," Vrabel said of the Jets offense.

As we know, the Patriots run defense has been in a slump, ranking 29th in rush EPA over the last five games, without standout DT Milton Williams and LB Robert Spillane. Williams is nearing a return from injured reserve after returning to practice this week. Still, the Pats need to get back to controlling the line of scrimmage before the playoffs, while the Jets averaged 5.0 yards per carry in the first matchup.

The Jets feature outside zone schemes, running outside on over 27% of their attempts. Membou is an excellent zone-blocker who can either block on the backside or reach the frontside to get runs started. Membou is on the frontside of the zone toss above, and turns out the edge on the combination block to open a huge lane for a 24-yard rushing touchdown. ​

Along with having better results against the run, the Jets also created mismatches with formations in Week 11. New York used 3x1 formations, meaning there are three receivers on one side and one on the other, to create favorable matchups in the slot. In the clips above, the Jets got wide receivers on safeties in coverage using 3x1 formations with motion, knowing the Pats wouldn't put outside corners Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III in the slot. With the Pats walking the safeties down instead, the Jets got positive plays out of these formations.

Although the Patriots shouldn't need to go too deep into their bag of tricks, they might opt to heat up Cook, as the Jets rookie has struggled against the blitz. Among 45 qualified quarterbacks, Cook ranks last in EPA per drop-back (-1.18). The next closest quarterback is Titans rookie Cam Ward, who is producing -0.54 EPA per drop-backs vs. the blitz, so Cook is twice as bad against the blitz as any other passer.

As we mentioned at the top, Sunday's matchup will allow the Patriots to shore up weaknesses heading into the postseason. Although they're unlikely to sustain it for four quarters, the Jets can run the ball and create some formational conflicts. Better teams will see that on film while watching the Patriots defense, so they need to find answers.

Key Matchups

LT Vederian Lowe vs. Jets EDGE Will McDonald IV

Last week, Lowe struggled with the Ravens speed rushers, allowing six total pressures to Baltimore pass-rushers Dre'Mont Jones, Kyle Van Noy, and Mike Green. This week, McDonald, who has been a bright spot for the Jets defense, has a similar skill set. McDonald leads the Jets in sacks (8.0) and total pressures (42), logging a sack and five total pressures last week vs. the Saints. McDonald has speed to threaten the edge, which opens tackles up for his patented spin move, so Lowe will have to be ready on Sunday.

CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Jets WR Adonai Mitchell

Although it didn't show up in the box score, the Jets wideout created downfield separation on a go route and a pick-wheel concept that could've been huge plays for Mitchell with Gonzalez in coverage. Mitchell is averaging a solid 46.5 receiving yards per game since joining the Jets, with a 100-yard performance in Week 13, and his route-running gave Gonzalez some problems in the last matchup. As head coach Mike Vrabel likes to say, the Patriots need their best players to play like stars in the playoffs, including Gonzalez.

DT Milton Williams vs. Jets LG John Simpson

The Patriots will hopefully get their standout defensive tackle back from a four-game absence due to an ankle injury. Before his injury, Williams was having a terrific season, ranking fifth among defensive tackles with a 12.7% pressure rate. During his absence, the Pats run defense went from fourth in rush EPA to 29th over the last five games. Although we can't expect everything to be fixed in Williams' first game in a month, it'll be interesting to see how he and the defense look in his return.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer