The Patriots are on to the divisional round playoffs, where they'll host the red-hot Houston Texans, riding an impressive 10-game winning streak.
After getting familiar with Houston this week, there are aspects of the Chargers and Texans that give this game a similar feel to New England's Wild Card win. Although there are major schematic differences between the Chargers and Texans, both featured two great defenses and middling offenses, with young quarterbacks capable of peak performances. Los Angeles's defense finished the regular season ranked sixth in total EPA and seventh in pass EPA, and gave the Pats offense all it could handle. If the Chargers were a mini-boss for all you Mario fans out there, the Texans defense is a final boss, ranking second only behind the No. 1 seed in the NFC, Seattle, in total EPA while leading the league in pass EPA.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans and QB C.J. Stroud have won a playoff game in each of their first three seasons in Houston and are now trying to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the first time in franchise history. With all due respect to the Chargers, LA felt like a warmup for what the Patriots will face on Sunday. As we said last week, New England's best players will need to play well, and that extends to the coaching staff, which deserves its flowers for having a huge hand in the Pats Wild Card win.
Speaking of the coaching matchup, the Texans offense is coordinated by a familiar face in OC Nick Caley, who is calling plays for the first time after spending two seasons with the Rams after leaving New England (2015-2022 with the Patriots). Caley went to John Carroll University, the same pipeline that produced McDaniels and Texans general manager Nick Caserio, so there's a familiarity there.
Although the Texans are a respectable 13th in scoring offense (23.8 PPG), some of that is inflated by the defense, which scores its own points and sets Houston's offense up with the third-best average starting field position in the NFL. If the Pats offense manages field position by avoiding turnovers, Houston's offense is pedestrian: 22nd in total EPA, 17th in pass EPA, and 21st in points per drive.
As for the Patriots' offense, one possible advantage is Houston's lack of diversity in its defensive play-calling. Besides minor game-plan tweaks, the Texans style is pretty straightforward. According to MatchQuarters's diversity grade, which measures how exotic defenses are based on coverage, personnel, and blitz tendencies, the Texans run the least-diverse system in the NFL. They only play in two different personnel groupings, with most of their snaps in nickel (73.2%, fifth), have the league's lowest blitz rate (21.2%) while cycling through a few different coverages: rush four and let's play ball.
The Texans defense is very talented, but their simplicity could favor the Patriots, who have an elite schemer in McDaniels calling plays for their talented second-year quarterback. McDaniels should have a pretty good idea of what Houston is going to do scheme-wise and QB Drake Maye shouldn't be confused by the structures he's seeing. In this kind of matchup, you like the Patriots chances to find enough answers offensively while forcing the Texans offense to consistently drive the field to put points on the board.
Let's break down the chess match between the Patriots and Texans in Sunday's divisional round showdown at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC.
Offense Key: Dialing Up Coverage Beaters for the Texans Base Defensive Schemes
Before breaking down the nuances on this side of the ball, let's introduce the loaded Texans defense from a personnel perspective.
We all know about the bookend edge rushers for Houston, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who are phenomenal. They also have disruptive interior rusher Sheldon Rankins, Denico Autrey and Derek Barnett give them depth, and LB Azeez Al-Shaair roams the second level. In the secondary, All-Pro CB Derek Stingley mans the left cornerback spot and physical CB Kamari Lassiter is to the quarterback's left as the right cornerback, with their two corners sticking to their sides of the field rather than shadowing receivers.
Although those players are all great, the X factor is nickel defender Jalen Pitre, who is an awesome football player. Pitre typically plays over the slot or in the box, where his physicality in run and screen support allows the Texans to hold up against the run in nickel (five DBs). Pitre is a ballhawk with four interceptions on the season, covers well out of the slot, and detonates blocks when the action comes his way – he always seems to be around the ball.
As a result of sound defensive structure and good players, the Texans defense is dominant across the board: No. 2 in scoring (17.4 PPG), No. 2 in total yards (279.1 YPG), No. 5 on third down (34.9%), No. 2 in total EPA (-0.108), No. 1 in pass EPA (-0.10), No. 3 in rush EPA (-0.12), and No. 3 in takeaways (29). There's a case to be made that Houston has the best defense in football, with Seattle being the only other unit in the discussion.
The best way to preview this strength-on-strength matchup is to explain how the Texans play their brand of defense and then go over areas where they might be vulnerable. Starting with their core schemes, Houston tends to live in the quarters and cover-three (buzz) world as the best first-down defense in the NFL. By shutting down first down, the Texans get offenses off-schedule, and that's when the pass rush takes over.
For example, the Texans spin into cover-three (buzz), starting in a two-high safety shell before rotating a safety down into the short zone. The buzz defender is able to take away the first in-breaking route at the sticks, allowing the short zone-dropper to fall underneath the second dig route, while Anderson wins off the edge to strip-sack Aaron Rodgers in the pocket.
The other primary zone calls for Houston are quarters or cover six (quarter-quarter-half), which are split-safety zones. Above, the Texans play cover-two to the short side of the field and quarters to the far side to form cover six, or quarter-quarter-half. Chargers QB Justin Herbert wants to work the smash concept, hitch-corner, to the cover-two side. However, LA's route spacing doesn't put the flat defender in conflict, so Stingley gets depth to take away the hole shot. Herbert might've been able to work backside to the deep post, but the T/T stunt wins, so the Chargers QB doesn't have time to progress and is sacked.
Houston will also play its fair share of snaps in man coverage. They only rank 18th in man coverage rate at 30.4%, but they play it enough to account for it. Plus, the Pats struggled against the Chargers man coverages last week, with Maye going 1-for-7 for seven yards while taking three sacks when Los Angeles manned up New England's receivers.
When the Texans play mobile quarterbacks like Herbert and Josh Allen, they tend to play cover-one with a spy on the QB. In this example, Houston plays tight man coverage while overloading the right side of the offensive line. As the rush begins to push Herbert out of the pocket, the spy is there to contain the quarterback, so Herbert has to get rid of the ball for a short gain to his check-down – a win for the defense on third down.
The Texans roster talent and sharp execution on defense can overwhelm opponents. However, there are a few trends the Patriots could exploit. First, Houston's explosive pass play rate ranks 14th in the NFL, which is lower than you'd expect for an elite defense. They also rank 31st in the league in EPA allowed (+1.02) and yards per scramble (9.6). Interestingly, the 49ers are last in the NFL against scrambles, running the same system as the Texans. Given that throwing deep passes and scramble drills are big-time strengths of Maye's, those are two weaknesses that the Patriots can expose.
Starting with deep passes, the Texans zones have trouble with flood concepts like post-wheel or the sail concept, where an outside vertical route clears out the sideline for a deep corner route, the same route combination the Patriots ran on TE Hunter Henry's touchdown vs. the Chargers. Above, the Steelers run under-center play-action from a two-tight end set, with the Texans matching it in cover six. The vertical route clears out the quarters side and WR Adam Thielen is open for a big play.
When the Texans played their cover-three buzz structures, both Herbert and Rodgers threw bombs into the safety rotation with the play-side safety rotating down and the opposite safety rallying into the deep middle, creating a 1-on-1 matchup on the outside. Herbert was able to hit a few vertical passes, while Rodgers missed his, but you can see where the single coverage opportunities are to take shots in the clip above.
As for the scrambles, the reason why the Texans system struggles to contain quarterbacks is that they primarily use a four-man pass rush. Believe it or not, the pass-rush metrics don't support Houston having a dominant pass rush. The Texans are just 18th in team pressure rate (33.9%), 21st in pass-rush win rate (35%), and 21st in average time to pressure (2.75s). The biggest reason why is that they don't scheme up pressure. Houston only blitzes 21.2% of the time, doesn't run any simulated pressures, and only runs line stunts on 15.3% of their pass plays: they count on their front four to win their 1-on-1 matchups.
A side effect of four-man rushes is that it leaves two open gaps for the quarterback to escape the pocket. When they run their seven-man coverages, mobile quarterbacks can get out and run, as Jags QB Trevor Lawrence does above for a 21-yard gain. Rodgers also had some opportunities outside the pocket in the Wild Card round, but at age 42, the Steelers quarterback doesn't have the athleticism anymore to create yards on the move.
Along those same lines, there were a few successful movement plays against the Texans defense that the Patriots could try to replicate. By moving the pocket, it could neutralize Houston's pass rush and allow Maye to impact the game with his legs. The Steelers hit a chunk gain with a bootleg keeper, running post-cross against the Texans cover-three zone, and the crosser uncovered for an explosive. In Week 18, the Colts had some success with their RPOs, getting QB Riley Leonard on the edge with a run and pass option to move the chains.
If all else fails, the other wrinkles the Pats could throw at the Texans is trying to force them into base personnel or taking advantage of their aggressive pass rush with screen passes Houston only plays base defense on 25.6% of their defensive snaps, but they'll match jumbo packages (six OL) with base defense most of the time. When offenses throw out of six offensive line packages, the Texans are just 21st in pass EPA (+0.20). The Texans also rank 30th in EPA against screen passes, allowing a league-high nine explosive plays to screen passes this season.
Between throwing deep passes, screens, Maye's mobility, and potentially getting favorable matchups versus base defense, there are some answers for the Patriots against a terrific Texans defense.
Defense Key: Zone & Cover Zero Blitzes Could be the Answer vs. Texans QB C.J. Stroud
Moving over to the other side of the ball, Caley installed a sound system in his first season as the Texans offensive coordinator, borrowing from both McDaniels and Rams HC Sean McVay.
From a personnel perspective, Houston's offensive line has been a weak link, with the Texans ranking 30th in pass-blocking win rate and last in run-blocking win rate. Like the Chargers, their issues in the trenches have sunk their run game, with Houston ranking 30th in rush EPA. Although the status of Pro Bowl CB Christian Gonzalez (concussion) is uncertain, Texans star receiver Nico Collins is also in jeopardy of missing Sunday's game due to his head injury.
At the skill positions, rookie RB Woody Marks has emerged as a solid back and WR Christian Kirk had a monster Wild Card performance (8 catches, 144 yards, TD). Houston also has good size at receiver with rookie Jayden Higgins (6-4) and third-year pro Xavier Hutchinson (6-3), who use their size well to box out defenders at the catch point, and TE Dalton Schultz is in a similar mold to Patriots TE Hunter Henry.
Schematically, Caley's run game is mostly McVay's, with Houston majoring in inside zone, duo, and outside zone runs. The Texans don't use many two-back sets or pullers on power schemes, so it's mostly zone blocking or duo, where they just try to run you over with double teams. They then run duo-actions to hit in-breaking routes over the middle of the field and bootlegs, moving the pocket at the fifth-highest rate in the league (11.7%) – that's all McVay stuff.
In the drop-back passing game, there isn't much of a vertical element to Houston's offense, with most of Stroud's attempts going to routes with horizontal breaks (in-breaking or out-breaking). Caley also seems to have blended McDaniels and McVay's bunch concepts, with the Texans using condensed bunches on 22.4% of their pass plays (second in the NFL). Between the in-breaking routes off play-action and bunch concepts, Stroud is one of the most efficient passers in the league against man coverage (+0.18 EPA/play, fifth in the NFL).
For example, this is vintage Stroud. Houston runs a short and second-level dig against cover-one (man). When the low-hole help goes to the shorter route, it leaves the middle of the field open for the intermediate route and Stroud's quick release is on-target for a third-down conversion. With the corner sitting outside the receiver, that's almost impossible to defend.
Later on, Houston ran the same bunch concept on the other side of the formation, and the Steelers ran a man-free blitz, sending six pass rushers with just a single-high safety. This time, WR Christian Kirk wins on the shallow crosser and turns a short pass into a huge gain.
Although he's top-five in efficiency against man coverage, Stroud is less effective in zone schemes, dropping to 15th in the NFL (+0.02). The Texans QB has also struggled under pressure this season, with his passer rating plummeting from 107.7 when kept clean (10th) to 60.9 when pressured (27th). Lastly, Stroud is just 18th in passer rating against the blitz this season (92.1).
Given those factors, one would expect the Patriots to continue to bring pressure as they did last week. In Week 17, the Chargers began heating up Stroud in the second half of a 20-16 win for Houston, after the Texans QB threw for 185 yards and two touchdowns in the first half. In the second half, Houston scored just six points, with Los Angeles blitzing Stroud on 40% of his drop-backs (6-of-10, 59 yards, 76.7 rating).
The Chargers slowed down Stroud with a mix of quarters pressures and cover-zero blitzes. In this example, LA dials up a creeper scheme, where two defenders drop off the line of scrimmage while the left corner and slot cornerback blitz. The blitz creates a 2-on-1 on the running back, which leaves an unblocked rusher, and Stroud is hurried into an incomplete pass.
Los Angeles also ran several successful cover-zero blitzes. This season, Stroud ranks 28th out of 29 qualified quarterbacks in EPA (-0.77) and drop-back success rate (24.7%) against cover zero. To beat all-out pressure, the quarterback needs a sound pressure plan, whether that's pre-snap protection calls or post-snap hot reads to get the ball out of his hands. As you can see, it didn't appear that Stroud had any answers to the Chargers all-out pressure.
New England found its blueprint to take advantage of a shaky offensive line and pressure plan last week. With Stroud's struggles under pressure and Collins possibly out, it would make sense for the Patriots to pull similar levers against the Texans offense on Sunday afternoon.
Key Matchups
RT Morgan Moses vs. Texans EDGE Will Anderson Jr.
Although they'll flip sides sometimes, Anderson typically rushes over the right tackle, logging 76.5% of his snaps at left defensive end. Anderson's average get-off time is 0.82 seconds, which is tied for ninth-best among qualified rushers. He can win with pure speed off the edge, convert speed-to-power to dent the pocket, and has a great long arm rush. On the freaky athlete scale, Anderson is near the top of the list. One would expect the Patriots to chip Anderson whenever they want to push the ball downfield.
LT Will Campbell vs. Texans EDGE Danielle Hunter
On the other side, Hunter might somehow be having an even better season than Anderson, ranking third in the NFL with 15.0 sacks this season. Hunter has a little more finesse to his rush plan, with a devastating inside spin as his signature rush move. Campbell had a down game last week vs. the Chargers, allowing a sack and five total pressures. Although he can't be expected to block either of these guys 1-on-1 too often, the rookie left tackle will need to have a bounce-back performance.
NCB Marcus Jones vs. Texans WR Christian Kirk
As mentioned, Kirk turned back the clock with his first 100-yard game since the 2023 season in the Wild Card round. If the Texans are down Collins, the speedy slot receiver becomes a key matchup, with the Pats matching speed-on-speed in the slot with Jones. Kirk destroyed the Steelers man coverages on crossing routes, so they'll likely put him in foot races with Jones all afternoon long. Based on his performance so far this year, you like Jones's chances a week after he shut down Chargers slot receiver Ladd McConkey.
