The Patriots finally know their divisional round opponent, as the Houston Texans will visit Gillette Stadium at 3 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC) on Sunday afternoon.
After advancing with a win over the Chargers, New England hosts a Houston team that blew open the game in the fourth quarter to earn a 30-6 win over the Steelers on Monday night. Under head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans earned the top Wild Card spot (No. 5 seed) following a second-place finish in the AFC South. In three seasons as Texans head coach, Ryans has won a playoff game, but Houston has yet to advance past the divisional round in its 24-year history and Monday night's win in Pittsburgh was its first road playoff victory in franchise history.
Starting with Houston's strength, the Texans defense might be the best in football. Houston finished the regular season with the second-ranked unit in scoring defense (17.4 PPG) and expected points added, trailing only the Seahawks in both categories. The Texans are also the No. 1 ranked defense in EPA per drop-back, featuring an elite pass rush with bookend Pro Bowlers in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. In the secondary, All-Pro CB Derek Stingley and underrated nickel defender Jalen Pitre anchor the backend.
Schematically, the Texans are a zone-based defense that structurally doesn't do much to confuse you; they're just that good. Houston plays the modern Seattle-3, which has become more of a quarters-based scheme in recent years rather than playing so much cover three. They'll mix in post-safety coverages like cover three and man coverage, with the cornerback talent to play man-to-man if they so choose.
Believe it or not, the metrics don't love Houston's pass rush, as they rank 18th in team pressure rate and 21st in pass-rush win rate, but some of that is because they don't blitz much, ranking 28th in blitz rate. Again, it all starts up front with this group, as the pass rush makes it difficult to call longer-developing plays. If you can block it, Houston is only 14th in explosive pass play rate allowed, so they have given up some big pass plays. However, they can dominate the line of scrimmage, while their productive front four generates pressure without blitzing, allowing them to keep bodies in coverage.
As for the Texans offense, Houston's offense is coordinated by a familiar face: former Patriots assistant Nick Caley. The Texans have struggled to score points at times and to execute situationally, as they did vs. the Steelers in the Wild Card round. The Texans finished the year ranked 13th in scoring offense (23.8 PPG), but that's aided by their defense. In terms of efficiency, Houston was 22nd in total EPA and 17th in drop-back EPA, while top WR Nico Collins' status is in doubt after leaving Monday night's game with a concussion.
Houston's offensive line has also had its issues recently, ranking 30th in pass-blocking win rate and last in run-blocking win rate. The Texans have found some ways to run the ball out of heavy personnel groups as rookie RB Woody Marks has emerged. Speedy slot receiver Christian Kirk also had a huge performance vs. the Steelers, TE Dalton Schultz is crafty, and young wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel have made some plays for third-year QB C.J. Stroud.
From this perspective, Sunday afternoon's game could be similar to the Patriots slugfest against the Chargers last week. Offensively, second-year QB Drake Maye and company will need to make just enough plays against one of the NFL's best defenses, while you like the Patriots defense's chances to hold the Texans offense in check — it should be a good one and we'll have much more in-depth analysis soon.
The Patriots will host the Texans at Gillette Stadium with kickoff at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday.
