The Patriots are on a 7-game winning streak, where nothing seems to be slowing their momentum, but now they'll face a different kind of challenge against the division rival Jets on Thursday Night Football.
New England announced its arrival in Buffalo (Week 5), avoided trap games (vs. the Saints, Week 6), and cemented its standing as one of the top teams in the AFC by taking down the NFC South-leading Buccaneers in Tampa Bay last week. Just when you think the Patriots might have a letdown game against a weaker opponent or fail to rise to the occasion when they go up a level in competition, head coach Mike Vrabel's squad has passed each test to this point in the season at 8-2.
The late-bye Patriots will now play their 11th-straight game of the season on a short week, presenting a unique challenge in a divisional matchup. New England is at home, which helps, since they won't lose time traveling to the Meadowlands. Still, after keeping the motor revving down in the heat of Central Florida, the Patriots are playing the schedule as much as they're playing the Jets, with their bye still a ways off in Week 14.
Along with needing to quickly rest, recover, and reset, the Jets are playing better football as winners of two straight games under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn. New York has a legit run-first offense that has scored 39 and 27 points in its last two games. Despite only dropping back to pass 16 times, Gang Green got a kickoff return touchdown, a punt return touchdown, and rushed 33 times for 127 yards in a 27-20 win over the Browns last week.
The Pats run defense versus the Jets rush offense is a strength-on-strength matchup, with New York ranking fourth in explosive run rate and sixth in run-blocking win rate. From that standpoint, it has a chance to be a physical game on a short week, while the Jets designed QB runs take practice reps to prepare for during the week. Let's not forget what Jets QB Justin Fields did on a Monday night in 2022, when he came into Gillette Stadium and balled out in a 33-14 win. If you let him run around, both by design and on scrambles, Fields can play at a high level.
"We'll have a huge challenge this week, and whether it's their scheme runs with the quarterback, whether it's Breece Hall, whether it's the under center, the gun runs, the pull schemes, the perimeter runs. So, that's all that's going to matter this week, is how we do those, and whatever scheme runs that they have coming up that we'll have to prepare for and tackle," head coach Mike Vrabel said on Tuesday.
Another factor that makes this AFC East matchup tricky is the Ewing theory. The Ewing theory was coined by Bill Simmons when the Knicks would anecdotally play better without star C Patrick Ewing in the lineup. The idea is that everyone is a little more focused, role players have their moments to shine, and the team rises to the occasion. Eventually, the short-term boost might wear off, but for a few games, it may be effective.
By trading away star defenders Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, the Jets have a bit of the Ewing theory going on. Gardner didn't play in his last game on the Jets roster due to a concussion, a Jets win over the Bengals (39-38), and New York won its first game after the Gardner-Williams trades. The Jets will really put the Ewing theory to the test this week, as star WR Garrett Wilson is now dealing with a knee sprain that will cause him to miss time. After a promising 2022 NFL Draft where they selected Gardner and Wilson in the first round, neither will suit up for the Jets on Thursday night at Gillette Stadium.
Admittedly, hyping the power of friendship on a short week might come across as being overly optimistic about the Jets chances of winning. However, all that's left to say about the red-hot Patriots is don't take a divisional opponent on a short week lightly – another test of Vrabel's culture.
Let's break down the chess match between the Patriots and Jets on Thursday Night Football.
Patriots Offense Key: Get Ready to See Plenty of Man Coverage on Thursday Night
The Jets made headlines when they traded star CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, but New York's defense was struggling before they made those trades.
In their first season under defensive-minded head coach Aaron Glenn, the Jets were 30th in DVOA on defense before trading their two star defenders. Glenn, a former Jets cornerback who built his coaching resume as the Lions defensive coordinator under head coach Dan Campbell, is installing a new defensive system that hasn't taken hold yet.
Although he isn't the primary defensive play-caller, DC Steve Wilks is clearly running the same system that Glenn installed in Detroit, which features a heavy dosage of man coverage. The Jets rank sixth in overall man coverage rate (38.7%), second in press-man rate (32.6%), and are third in man-blitz frequency (21.2%) – they want to play man coverage.
Over the last few seasons, Gardner's man coverage metrics were solid, but the now-Colts corner was a better fit in former head coach Robert Saleh's version of the Seattle-3 defense. For reference, Gardner used to get comparisons to former Seahawks CB Richard Sherman.
At its roots, Saleh's scheme was a zone coverage defense. Under Glenn and Wilks, the Jets major in man coverage, and they had Gardner shadow receivers rather than gluing him to the boundary like Saleh did over the years. Gardner is a good corner, but perhaps the Jets new brass didn't feel that his finesse playing style was a scheme fit, given Glenn's emphasis on aggressiveness and tackling. In the first 10 weeks, the Jets have the fourth-highest missed tackle rate in the NFL (15.2%).
On film, you can see that this staff knows how to scheme man coverages. For example, the Jets comeback victory over the Bengals in Week 8 was spearheaded by New York using two-high safeties to bracket star wideouts J'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. On a critical late fourth down, you can see an over-under bracket on Higgins' side of the field (top of screen) and an inside-out bracket on Chase (bottom of screen). Due to the bracket coverage, Bengals QB Joe Flacco goes to his one-on-one matchup near the sticks, and Jets CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. wins this round.
My guess is that the Jets won't use bracket coverages from two-high safety shells against the Patriots. Why? When you call these man coverages with five eligible receivers and two-high safeties, it leaves the quarterback unaccounted for on scrambles. Instead, one would think that the Jets will either spy Maye as the Bucs did at times or fill as many gaps on the line of scrimmage as possible with their man-blitzes.
The Bengals successfully took deep shots against the Jets post-safety coverages. Above, Cincy goes under-center in a two-back formation to get the Jets into a heavier box with a single-high safety. The Bengals then hit the Jets with a toss-action that gets Flacco on the move. In the secondary, the single-high safety clamps down on the second-level dig route over the middle of the field, leaving Higgins 1-on-1 against Jets CB Azareye'h Thomas, and Higgins wins that battle for an explosive touchdown. Whether it's Kyle Williams or Mack Hollins on the backside vertical, those 1-on-1 matchups will be there.
Another way teams are beating the Jets man coverages is by using the mesh concept. Cleveland runs a pretty neat 3x1 mesh variation here with the intersecting crossers paired with the sail concept (outside go, inside corner route). Browns QB Dillon Gabriel could've thrown the short crossers with the Jets DBs running into each other, but he hunts a bigger play with TE Harold Fannin having favorable leverage on the sail route.
Ultimately, you can see how Glenn's scheme can be effective, as it was in Detroit, but it might take the Jets time to find the right personnel. Man coverage defenses call for different types of players than a zone scheme, especially in the back seven. For instance, cover corners that specialize in playing man coverage, downhill blitzing linebackers, and hybrid defenders who can cover backs and tight ends are critical to Glenn's defense. In Saleh's scheme, you want instinctive ball-hawking DBs and rangy zone-dropping linebackers – it's just different molds of players.
Although the Jets are a ways away from having the right personnel to run Glenn's scheme effectively, the Patriots have to prepare for the Jets to challenge their receivers in man coverage.
Patriots Defense Key: Don't Sleep on the Jets Explosive Run Game
Statistically speaking, the Jets offense is nothing to worry about, ranking 25th in scoring and 29th in offense DVOA through the first 10 weeks.
New York has a limited drop-back passing game with QB Justin Fields, whom the Jets attempted to revive, like many other teams have done with former first-round quarterbacks. However, Fields has struggled, ranking 29th in EPA per drop-back and 25th in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), as his fatal flaws as a passer continue to emerge, including bouts with inaccuracy and holding the ball too long. Out of 32 qualified quarterbacks, Fields is 28th in average time to attempt a pass (2.76s).
That said, Fields' supporting cast also isn't any great shakes. Without star WR Garrett Wilson in the lineup, RB Breece Hall is the Jets only dangerous weapon. Hall has 21 explosive runs on the season (fifth-most in the NFL) and is a threat to hit big plays in the screen game as well. The Jets RB is a slippery runner with great burst and jump-cut ability to elude tacklers in the backfield. Although he's a one-man show right now, Hall is a problem.
First-year offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand's scheme has also impressed. Engstrand followed Glenn from Detroit to the Meadowlands, and the first-time play-caller has done his best to tailor the offense to the strengths of his personnel. For instance, the Jets lead the league in neutral called run rate (51.2%) and are fourth in run+play-action rate (63.2%), doing their best to keep Fields out of traditional drop-backs.
Given how stingy the Patriots run defense has been this season, New England is probably content with the Jets turning this into a run-fest on Thursday night. However, on a short week, non-traditional rush offenses can be worrisome without much prep time. As one would expect, the Jets run most of their offense from the shotgun. New York has an option series that features multiple choices for Fields to stress the defense. Their most common read-option plays work off their zone schemes, where they'll have a perimeter screen to spread out the defense.
Above, the Jets create a six-man box by running a three-man screen to Fields' left, forcing the Bengals to put three defenders over the screen side. At the snap, Fields reads the backside end staying home on the edge, so he hands the ball off, and RB Isaiah Davis breaks a tackle for an explosive gain.
The Jets will also run gap-read schemes, such as tackle-trap, an en vogue QB-run design that is popular around the league. This time, New York is running an inverted tackle trap, meaning Fields is on the inside run while the back is the one threatening the edge. When the end crashes inside, Fields gives the ball to Hall, who goes for a 27-yard TD.
New York also has some designed keepers for Fields, whether those are naked bootlegs in short-yardage or power sweeps. When they go under-center, the Jets go into West Coast offense mode with stretch runs and boots to get Fields on the move. Above, they run a naked bootleg where Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt bites on the inside run-action, and Fields keeps it out the backside for a walk-in touchdown.
In the passing game, Hall is a mismatch on linebackers and is a threat to take it to the house on screens. Last week, New York caught the Browns in a cover zero blitz where LB Carson Schwesinger was in man coverage on Hall. Given that it's man coverage, the offensive line blocks Schwesinger, and then Hall takes off into the open field for a 42-yard TD.
New England's defense can take control by turning this into a drop-back passing game, where Fields's only trump card is his ability to scramble. Without the aid of play-action, Fields ranks 26th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per standard drop-back. If they make the Jets rely on their passing game, the Patriots defense should win the matchup.
Key Matchups
LB Robert Spillane vs. Jets RB Breece Hall
My guess is the Patriots will have Spillane's eyes on No. 20 in the backfield all night, whether that's on runs or screens. Hall's big-play ability is the Jets best, and frankly, only weapon. If he's not breaking off explosives, it's hard to envision that the Jets offense will be successful. Whether it's mirroring him on run plays or tracking Hall on screens, Spillane is going to be at the point of attack for the Pats defense.
LT Will Campbell vs. Jets EDGE Will McDonald IV
Hopefully, McDonald (quad) plays in Thursday night's game because it's a good barometer of where Campbell is against long-limbed speed rushers. McDonald had four sacks and seven total pressures last week, utilizing an explosive first step to convert speed-to-power, and he has a go-to inside spin move that he's had since college. McDonald will also rush over the interior offensive line occasionally, using his quickness to win inside over the right guard for a sack last week. If healthy, he's a problem.
Pats Kick Coverage Units vs. Jets Return Units
The Jets special teams have been excellent this season (No. 1 in STs DVOA). New York has the top-ranked kickoff return unit in DVOA, averaging 28.8 yards per kickoff return. They're also fifth in punt return DVOA with a 13.6-yard average. As the Browns found out last week, the Jets can change a game in a hurry with their stellar return units.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
