The Patriots are coming off a mini-bye week feeling great about their 9-2 record, but the attrition of a long season is starting to take a toll on the roster.

Until recently, the Patriots had placed only one regular contributor on in-season injured reserve, RB Antonio Gibson (knee), and had one of the healthiest rosters in the NFL. However, in the last few weeks, significant injuries have begun to emerge. New England has played its last three games without RB Rhamondre Stevenson (toe), its last two contests without starting WR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), and TE Austin Hooper (concussion) sat out Week 11.

Then, maybe the most significant injury loss occurred during last Thursday night's win over the Jets when star DT Milton Williams reportedly suffered a high-ankle sprain that will sideline him for at least the next four games. Over the weekend, the team placed Williams on injured reserve, meaning he'll miss upcoming games against the Bengals, Giants, Bills, and Ravens – a major blow to the Patriots defense.

The former Eagle has been a home run free-agent signing, ranking third among defensive tackles in ESPN's pass-rush win rate metric (14%), while his relentless effort and finish help champion head coach Mike Vrabel's top non-negotiable for his team's identity. Standout DT Christian Barmore and Williams have been of the league's best DT tandems, so it's significant that Williams will miss critical games down the stretch.

This week, the Patriots travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals (3-7) without standout WR Ja'Marr Chase (suspension) and top pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson (hip/pelvis). However, star QB Joe Burrow practiced fully for the first time since sustaining a turf toe injury in Week 2, opening the door for a potential return on Sunday. Reports from Cincinnati have indicated that Burrow is eying a return in Week 13, but there's a chance he comes back earlier. At the same time, backup QB Joe Flacco is practicing in a limited capacity due to an injury to his throwing shoulder, so there's uncertainty at quarterback for the Bengals.

Although being down Chase puts a wrench in things, the Bengals offense has been fully operational since trading for Flacco. The 40-year-old former Raven has the Bengals offense averaging 28.6 points (fourth in the NFL) and 279.8 passing yards (third in the NFL) in Flacco's five games as Cincinnati's starter. The Bengals are 1-4 in Flacco's starts, primarily because of a poor defense, not the offense. Cincy lost recent games in which they scored 42 and 38 points but showed some vulnerabilities in a 34-12 loss to the Steelers in Week 11.

Although it's hard to envision the Bengals as potent offensively without Chase, the Patriots defense will still need to overcome the injury to Williams; star WR Tee Higgins and RB Chase Brown are enough to think about defensively. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots offense has registered in the mid-20s over the last three weeks (24, 28, and 27 points). Even without Chase, the path to a Bengals victory is winning in a shootout. Maye, who is searching for his first-career 300-yard passing performance, will face a Bengals defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA. But, truth be told, New England's offense hasn't had to win a high-scoring affair where the opposing offense is up for the challenge.

From this perspective, it'll be interesting to see both potential paths to victory for the Patriots. Can they match a capable offense on the scoreboard, or can they devise and execute a game plan that limits a shorthanded Cincy offense? Either way, we'll get some questions answered about New England this week, regardless of their opponent's record.

Let's preview the chess match between the Patriots and Bengals in Cincinnati on Sunday.

Defense Key: Do the Patriots Still Use the Two-High Safety Blueprint Without Chase in the Lineup?

We'll start with the Patriots defense because the Bengals offense leading them to a win is their most probable path to victory.

Although it's challenging to prepare for two different quarterbacks, the Bengals traditional West Coast system under head coach Zac Taylor has stayed relatively the same regardless of the quarterback. Burrow is the more dynamic playmaker with mobility and accuracy to all three levels. Still, the Bengals offense has always been somewhat rudimentary. When you have Burrow, Chase, Higgins, shifty RB Chase Brown, and complementary pieces such as WR Andrei Iosivas and TE Noah Fant, you don't need to be overly exotic. The Bengals run their offense primarily out of the shotgun (1st, 79.4%) with three wide receivers (74.8%, 2nd) and rank 28th in motion rate (25.1%) – it's a shotgun spread offense, whether it's Burrow or Flacco.

Another interesting trend with the Bengals offense is their limited use of the run game. Cincinnati is only calling a run on 31.3% of its offensive plays, the lowest rate in the NFL. Cincy won't even run the ball into two-high safety shells, ranking last in the NFL with a 25.5% two-high run rate. Plus, Flacco is a stationary pocket passer who isn't a threat to run on scrambles. So, when you put it all together, you have two elite receivers and very little rushing threat with an immobile quarterback.

Given all those factors, the blueprint against the Bengals offense has been to play two-high safety shells, where the backend can bracket both Chase and Higgins. However, Chase's absence might mean the two-high safety strategy isn't necessary with just Higgins and the Bengals complementary playmakers around Flacco this week.

If the Patriots decide that playing two-high safeties is unnecessary with Chase unavailable, they could play cover-one double (Higgins). Above, the Steelers appear to be playing with a single-high safety over the top of Chase (imagine it's Higgins for a moment), where the deep safety is primarily helping the one receiver and is tilted to that side of the field. Everywhere else, the Steelers are 1-on-1 coverage-wise, and the deep safety and CB Joey Porter Jr. force an incomplete pass.

Now, suppose the Patriots are still reluctant to leave defenders on islands against Higgins, Brown, Iosivas, and others; they could still stick to the blueprint that has been working vs. the Bengals with Chase in the lineup. When he sees two-high safeties, Flacco is averaging -0.03 expected points added per drop-back with a 43.6% drop-back success rate. As you can see, those numbers skyrocket against single-high safety structures.

To prevent those 1-on-1 matchups, the Steelers played traditional cover-two zone to force Flacco into tight-window throws over the middle of the field or check-downs on early downs. Above, Flacco wants to work the backside route to Chase, but the deep safeties allow Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. to play inside leverage on the slant. Flacco comes off the backside to the passing strength, but the short zone distribution has the curls covered, so he checks it down for a negative play.

As for obvious passing downs, the Steelers and other defenses are using the deep safeties to bracket Chase and Higgins, forcing throws into double coverage or funneling the ball to other receivers in key situations. Pittsburgh bracketed the Bengals receiver duo on third downs, holding Cincinnati to -0.35 EPA per late-down pass play (29th percentile). Above, the Steelers have their safeties play the sticks in inside-out brackets against Chase and Higgins. The Bengals wideouts do the correct thing to split the brackets vertically, but with the outside corners sitting on vertical routes, CB James Pierre breaks up the deep pass intended for Chase. Would they need to bracket Iosivas like others did with Chase? Probably not. But it's an option.

The risk of playing so many two-high safety shells, which the Steelers did on 70.7% of their defensive plays, is that teams will run the ball into lighter boxes. The other pitfall is that there isn't a free defender to account for the QB scrambling. However, the Bengals don't threaten you with the traditional or quarterback run game, so playing with two-high safeties is less risky. Even if they run the ball more, you'll live with that over the bombs to Higgins with single coverage on the outside.

Along with his struggles against two-high safety shells, Flacco's efficiency also plummets while under pressure because he's not getting away from the rush at this stage of his career. Flacco is averaging -0.73 EPA per play while under pressure (28th in NFL) compared to a +0.37 EPA per play from clean pockets (8th-best in the NFL). Without Chase, the Patriots could decide to heat up Flacco with more blitzing or a five-man pass rush, paying extra attention to Higgins while trusting their DBs against the Bengals other wideouts in single coverage.

Admittedly, Chase being suspended takes some of the juice out of the chess match this week, as it would've been fun to see how the Patriots game-planned Cincy's offense, even without Burrow at quarterback.

Offense Key: Playing Minds Games with the Bengals Struggling Defense

The Bengals defense hasn't just been bad this season; it's been historically bad under first-year defensive coordinator Al Golden, who made the jump from college (Notre Dame) to the pros this season.

After the defensive personnel began to fall apart last season, the Bengals parted ways with DC Lou Anarumoafter finishing 27th in DVOA on defense in 2024. Anarumo wasn't out of work long, catching on quickly as the Colts defensive coordinator, and Indy's defense ranks a respectable 16th in DVOA through 11 weeks. As for the Bengals, it's gone from bad to worse under Golden, with Cincinnati ranking last in DVOA, points allowed, yards allowed, and EPA – 32nd in the NFL in all major categories. To put it in historical context, the Bengals have the worst defense DVOA since at least 1978.

Although the coaching took the blame a year ago, it's becoming clearer by the week that the Bengals defensive issues are largely about the roster talent. Cincinnati is currently playing without star edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson (hip/pelvis), who has missed the last two games and is doubtful to play on Sunday, while first-rounder Shemar Stewart is on injured reserve and starting CB Cam Taylor-Britt (foot) is also out.

As for Golden's system, the former Fighting Irish defensive coordinator bases his defense out of a 4-3 base or 4-2-5 nickel groupings. The Bengals will play a mix of man and zone coverages with match principles, while playing 31.3% of their snaps in "cloud" coverages (cover two or cover six), the fourth-highest rate of cloud in the NFL. Like most NFL defenses nowadays, the Bengals aren't playing spot-drop zones where players cover specific areas of the field. Instead, they're using more exotic match coverages, where they read receivers' releases to decide whether to match those players or drop like it's zone coverage.

With the players adjusting to a new defensive scheme, what's giving the Bengals defense the most trouble is pre-snap communication to handle motions, shifts, and sudden changes to the point of attack. When you play the Bengals, making them sort through as much window dressing as possible to stress communication and staying on top of the rules in their system can lead to easy yards. Although they're near the bottom of the league in most metrics, the Bengals are giving up +0.15 EPA per play on plays with motion (31st in the NFL), indicating assignment issues.

For example, the Steelers generated two chunk plays out of this same three-level passing concept, known as the "sail" concept. In this clip, Pittsburgh sends the outside receiver on a short motion into a two-receiver stack, forcing the Bengals to communicate who has coverage on whom. As the play rolls, there's some confusion for CB Dax Hill on who he has, and he gives up his leverage to WR Roman Wilson for a 17-yard gain.

Later on, Pittsburgh ran the same passing concept to see if the Bengals could sort it out properly. This time, Hill and Turner cover the downfield routes, but with Hill playing the corner route, there's space underneath the defense for the check-down in the flat, with the Steelers designing a delayed release blocker to spring RB Kenneth Gainwell for a 20-yard gain.

Running backs catching passes out of the backfield have given the Bengals problems all season, with Cincy ranking last in DVOA to running backs in the passing game. A significant reason why is the Bengals are 30th in missed tackle rate (15.1%) and last in yards allowed after a missed tackle (821 yards), allowing short passes to turn into big gains.

Gainwell had seven catches for 81 receiving yards and two touchdowns vs. the Bengals last week. In this example, the Steelers used their six-man offensive line package, which they deployed 13 times in the game. Pittsburgh sends eligible OT Calvin Anderson in motion across the formation, and the Bengals change the strength of their formation, expecting a run toward Anderson (left). Instead, it's a screen to the right, which goes for 28 yards. This season, the Bengals rank 30th in the NFL in success rate vs. RB screens (69.2%).

To their credit, the Bengals defense was slightly better against Pittsburgh, with the Steelers scoring 14 of their 34 points on defense. Cincinnati held Pittsburgh to a season-best 41.7% play success rate, an improvement by their standards, and it appeared that some of it came from Golden simplifying things by playing more conventional man coverages (11 drop-backs). By simply going man-to-man, there were some more productive downs, especially in the first half when the Bengals held Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers to a modest +0.14 EPA per drop-back.

Still, the Bengals defense has struggled for most of the season, and a buttoned-up Patriots offense should be able to outclass Cincinnati.

Key Matchups

CB Carlton Davis III & Christian Gonzalez vs. Bengals WR Tee Higgins

Although it would've been more exciting to see the Patriots cornerback duo defend Chase and Higgins, it'll be interesting to see how the Pats handle Higgins. Given the playing style match, they could have Davis III shadow Higgins with safety help over the top. Davis III has the physicality and length (89th percentile arm length) to challenge Higgins downfield at the catch point. Gonzalez could then shadow the Bengals No. 2 receiver, Iosivas, who is no slouch. Even though he won't have Chase occupying defenders on the other side, Higgins is still fully capable of taking over a game if left unchecked.

Pats Defense vs. Bengals RB Chase Brown

Sticking with the preventing a shootout theme, Brown is rising to the level of calling it a "big three" alongside Chase and Higgins. Brown ranks second on the team with 748 scrimmage yards, with sudden change-of-direction talent to slip out of tackles and a good burst into the open field. He's tough to tackle, and most importantly, challenging to cover out of the backfield. Flacco relies on Brown as a check-down, but he can also run deeper option-style routes that will be hard to match in space for a linebacker. The Patriots could use a safety, LB Marte Mapu, or even NCB Marcus Jones to cover Brown on third downs.

WR Stefon Diggs vs. Bengals CB DJ Turner II

Although the defense as a whole has struggled, Turner has had a nice season for the Bengals, ranking 14th among qualified corners in PFF grade (73.0). Turner usually travels with the opponent's No. 1 receiver. Last week, the Bengals CB shadowed Steelers WR DK Metcalf on 87.5% of Metcalf's routes, holding him to zero catches on two targets in 20 matchups. Diggs could see a lot of Turner on Sunday, so the Pats might decide to throw at Dax Hill and Josh Newton instead.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer