The Patriots will look to bounce back on the road against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football, where a win for New England would clinch their first playoff berth since 2021.

Although the Patriots can't win the division this week, New England still controls its own destiny both in the AFC East race and for a playoff berth after last Sunday's loss to the Bills. However, the Pats first loss in 83 days will serve as their first test of late-season adversity under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel. New England responded to a 1-2 start by rattling off 10-straight wins but letting a chance to clinch the division slip through their fingers by surrendering a 17-point halftime lead in the loss to Buffalo is a bigger test of their culture.

The Patriots vibes have been some of the best this scribe has ever been around. Vrabel often stresses the importance of culture, with four pillars that make up his definition of team identity: effort and finish, ball security and ball disruption, DTF (details, technique, fundamentals), and making great decisions. However, it's easy to buy into that identity when you're rattling off 10-straight games. During his introductory press conference in January, Vrabel shared the same sentiment when outlining his definition of team culture.

"When you get hit in the mouth, or you're down, or the chips are against you, then you can take a snapshot of what your team looks like, and then you'll find out what culture you have," Vrabel said.

Although winning the division by beating the Bills would've been nice, we'll get a gauge of the Patriots mettle coming off a difficult loss. Another Vrabelism is that it's only a loss if you don't learn from it, so seeing how New England bounces back will be very telling. From this perspective, the two biggest lessons from last week's loss are keeping the foot on the gas offensively and being assignment-sound on defense.

The Patriots have had some trouble lately with sustaining offense into the second half. On the season, New England is leading the NFL in scoring offense in the first half (16.7 PPG), but is 22nd in second-half scoring (10.6 PPG). Until last week, the Pats didn't necessarily need to keep scoring into the second half because their opponents weren't punching back, but offenses like the Bills, Ravens, and teams they'll play in the playoffs have the talent to push back. Defensively, the front coordination wasn't up to standard, with too many poor run fits and inconsistent rush-lane integrity in the pass rush – getting back on track starts there.​

As for the matchup with Baltimore, what always comes to mind when playing the Ravens, along with facing their two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, is physicality. The Ravens offense ranks sixth in rush EPA, and their defense is first in rush EPA allowed since Week 6 — this is some old-school smash-mouth ball that will be won in the trenches. Get your hard hats ready.

Let's preview the chess match between the Patriots and Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday night.

Offense Key: Prepping for the Ravens Disguised Zones & Cover Zero Package

Sticking with the theme of learning from the Bills loss, Buffalo's emphasis on two-high safety and disguising coverage in the second half gave the Patriots offense some problems last week.

According to NextGen Stats, Buffalo ran split-safety shells on 86.7% of QB Drake Maye's second-half drop-backs, with Maye going 5-of-12 for 47 yards with a pair of sacks in the final two quarters. The Bills majored in cover-two man, while disguising their coverage shell 24.1% of the time. The two-high safeties, designed to take away Maye's terrific deep-passing ability, and the post-snap coverage rotations stressed the Patriots passing game, presenting both execution and schematic challenges.

On Sunday night, the Patriots will face a Ravens defense that has righted the ship after a rough start. In the first five weeks. Baltimore was on pace to allow the most points in franchise history, surrendering 35.4 points per game, which contributed to its 1-4 start. The Ravens were 30th in total EPA, 29th in drop-back EPA, and last in rush EPA through five weeks. Since then, they've flipped the script, allowing the second-fewest points in their last nine games (15.9 PPG), including shutting out Bengals QB Joe Burrow for the first time in his NFL career in Week 15.

The Ravens fixed their defense by making several tweaks and learning to play without standout DT Nmadi Madubuike. After leading Baltimore in total pressures a year ago, the two-time Pro Bowler only appeared in two games this season due to a neck injury (IR). Although their Pro Bowl defensive tackle didn't return, others did for Baltimore, such as EDGE Kyle Van Noy, while a strategic trade to unlock star S Kyle Hamilton also helped. The Ravens traded pass-rusher Odafe Oweh to the Chargers for S Alohi Gilman, who is now playing free safety, so that Hamilton can roam around the defense closer to the line of scrimmage.

Hamilton is a terrific player who deserves his own paragraph here. He might be the most versatile defender in football, with the Ravens using him at all three levels of the defense. He's tied for eighth among safeties in total pressures (10), is second in run stops (17), can cover the slot or tight ends in both man and zone coverages, and plays deep safety. As the chess piece of all chess pieces, knowing where No. 14 is at all times will be top of mind for Maye and company.

Schematically, Baltimore is a man-coverage heavy, but they've played slightly less man-to-man during their defensive turnaround. The Ravens are ninth in man coverage rate since Week 6 (32.8%), using schemed pressures at one of the highest rates in the league (5.7%), where they'll show pressure and one coverage shell pre-snap, then spin in and out of sending blitzes.

​

For example, the Ravens had the Bengals offense in a blender last week. Above, the Ravens put seven rushers up on the line of scrimmage to threaten all-out pressure. At the snap, they fall out of it, dropping the mugged linebackers in the A-Gaps into short zones with the secondary falling into cover six. Cincinnati brought in extra blockers to account for the blitz, sending only three receivers into the pattern. When Baltimore falls out of it, Burrow has to check it down.

In this play, Baltimore shows pressure again with five defenders on the line of scrimmage and a two-high safety pre-snap shell. At the snap, the mugged linebacker takes the back in man coverage, the safeties spin with a double-team on Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase, and Burrow throws late and short of the sticks again to the shallow crosser for another third-down stop.​

Lastly, the Ravens will pick their spots to send the house, opting to bring all-out pressure in the low red zone, where it's less important to have a deep safety. The Ravens rush seven initially, with two defenders popping out of the rush into "hot" zones over the middle of the field, which are designed to trigger when the blockers commit to blocking the rushing threats. With pressure in his face, Burrow throws the ball right to a dropping Van Noy, who hands it off to the faster Gilman for an 84-yard pick-six.

Baltimore has turned things around defensively under head coach John Harbaugh and DC Zach Orr, with Orr finding the right levers to pull to generate pressure and disguise with his current personnel. Baltimore's lack of a pass rush has been a point of contention for them this season, ranking 31st in sack rate and 24th in pass-rush win rate. In theory, Maye should have time in the pocket, but the key will be him and his receivers being on the same page to read out coverages after the snap.

The Ravens third-down pressure package is legit, and their run defense, led by NT Travis Jones and linebackers Roquan Smith and Trenton Simpson alongside Hamilton are tough customers. They have given up some rushing yards to gap schemes such as duo (5.1 YPC) and counter (5.6 YPC), so that might be where the Patriots start for a run plan. Ultimately, as Vrabel said this week, staying on schedule to avoid the Ravens third-down scheming will be a key to victory this week.

"We'll have to use everything we can to really stay on track this week. That's part of the message here with our football team offensively, so that we're not in this danger zone of their pressures and when those things can really start to affect you. So, we can stay on track and if we're in short yardage, we'll have to have a great plan to convert this week," Vrabel said.

Sunday night's game will be throwback trench warfare, with the Patriots offense working to stay on schedule so that the Ravens can't dial up their late-down exotic schemes.

Defense Key: Can the Pats Find a Run Defense for Lamar Jackson & Derrick Henry?​

Moving over to the other side of the ball, the Patriots don't have much time to find answers for their slumping run defense, with the Ravens third-ranked rushing attack next on the docket.​

Since standout DT Milton Williams went down with an ankle injury, the Patriots run defense has regressed. Since Week 11, the Patriots are 30th in rush EPA, 31st in rushing success rate, and 24th in yards per carry allowed, a notable drop-off compared to when Williams was healthy. Unfortunately, Williams is not eligible to return from injured reserve until Week 17 vs. the Jets, so he won't play vs. the Ravens. Plus, starting LB Robert Spillane didn't play a single snap last week and isn't practicing due to a foot injury.

As for the Ravens offense, Baltimore's passing game is having a down year by star QB Lamar Jackson's standards, with Jackson being banged up for most of the year with nagging leg injuries. Lately, Jackson has been sitting out practices during the week to manage the bumps and bruises. Over his last seven games since returning from injury, Jackson is just 24th out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per drop-back (sixth in the first four weeks). Lamar is also being sacked on a career-high 9.8% of his drop-backs, more than double his sack rate in his stellar 2024 season (4.2%).

​

On film, you see a player who is still faster than most of the defenders chasing him, but not quite as fast as he usually is to out-run pursuing pass-rushers, like he normally does. In the example above, you're so used to seeing Jackson get the edge with ease to pull away from the pass rush and convert the first down with his legs. Now, he's having a tougher time accelerating around the edge. Jackson has only added +9.0 total expected points on scrambles since returning from injury, and his designed run rate is way down as well, with only 11 designed keepers in his last seven games.

​Along with his mobility being reduced, Jackson's big-time throw rate is down from his MVP seasons, and his turnover-worthy plays have increased. This season, he's only producing a big-time throw on 2.4% of his pass attempts with a turnover-worthy play rate of 3.3%. Last season, when he was runner-up to Josh Allen for MVP, Jackson's big-time throw rate was 6.3% to a turnover-worthy play rate of 1.6%. Obviously, you can't take a two-time MVP lightly, but the Ravens passing game isn't quite as daunting with Jackson being less than 100 percent.

That said, Baltimore is still fully capable of taking advantage of the Patriots run defense woes. Baltimore is sixth in rush EPA, second in explosive run rate (12.3%), and third in rushing yards per game (146.2). The Ravens are eighth in run+play-action rate (58.8%) while operating out of heavy personnel groupings. Baltimore is last in the NFL in three-wide receiver groupings (32.8%), so New England is going to see plenty of FB Patrick Ricard and tight ends Isaiah Likely, Mark Andrews, and Charlie Kolar. Schematically, Ravens OC Todd Monken also does a great job of designing and sequencing run actions. The Ravens offense is also running more plays from under-center this season (career-high 32.7%).

For example, the Ravens run a rep of two-back power-lead from under center out of 21 personnel. With the quarterback under-center, Ricard kicks out the end, allowing Kolar to down block while the backside guard pulls to the play-side linebacker, which gets Henry rolling downhill at the defense for a chunk gain.

Then, Baltimore will put the same personnel on the field and show the same power-lead action to the defense. This time, though, it's a misdirection toss in the other direction to Henry. As you can imagine, that's a lot of eye candy for the defense to stay home after they've seen the power-lead play earlier in the game, so Henry gets loose for an explosive run.

Next, the Ravens have play-action passes off their power runs as well. Again, it's the same two-back formation with the backside guard pull and fullback kicking out the edge. However, Jackson fakes the handoff this time with Baltimore running play-action in-breakers behind the linebackers, who are obviously going to play the run, and it's a completion to WR Zay Flowers.

Although the Ravens have been operating from under-center more, they still have an option package from the gun that's tough to defend. As with their under-center runs, Baltimore has RPOs that give Jackson answers, with the runs looking the same as the passes. In the first play above, Baltimore hits an explosive run on GT Counter-read. On the next play, they run an RPO in which Jackson throws behind the linebackers, who bite on the pullers.

We could go all day showing examples of the Ravens potent rushing attack, setting up play-action and RPO passes. Fortunately for the Patriots, Jackson isn't at the peak of his powers, but the Baltimore run game is still excellent. Typically, you see teams have success stopping Baltimore's RPO schemes with man coverage, where the perimeter defenders don't have to worry about the run, or quarters schemes that allow fast-flowing defenders into the alleys. As for their under-center runs, there isn't anything sexy schematically, it's just having that mentality to match Baltimore's physicality.

Ultimately, you have to find ways to get the Ravens out of their run-action sequencing and turn the game into a drop-back passing game where Baltimore can be beaten. Once you get into the drop-back game, Jackson has always been more efficient throwing the ball between the numbers. This season, Jackson ranks 27th in EPA per attempt on outside throws compared to sixth in EPA on throws to the middle of the field, so funneling the ball outside is critical.

After a rocky few weeks without some of their best run defenders, the Patriots defense will be in for another challenge against the Ravens potent rushing attack on Sunday night.

Key Matchups

NCB Marcus Jones vs. Ravens WR Zay Flowers

Flowers is the Ravens leading receiver as a movable chess piece who typically aligns in the slot, but Baltimore puts him in motion quite a bit. Along with having a plan for handling "cheat" motion into routes, Flowers is a difficult cover on crossers, double moves, and quick-hitters where he can catch and run. He's an explosive playmaker, setting up a speed-on-speed matchup with Jones in the slot and off the line of scrimmage.​

Pats LBs/SAFs vs. Ravens TEs Mark Andrews & Isaiah Likely

As mentioned, Lamar wants to throw to the middle of the field, and the Ravens use multiple tight ends more than any other offense. Last week, the Pats had some trouble covering Bills tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, so this will be an interesting test. Likely is the big-play threat on seams and crossers, while Andrews is the chain mover, and the Ravens target both in the red zone. We'll see how the Patriots handle these two on Sunday.

LT Vederian Lowe vs. Ravens EDGE Dre'Mont Jones

Lowe has been solid since taking over at left tackle, with zero sacks allowed in his two starts. He'll face off against Jones this week, who logged five QB hits vs. the Bengals in Week 15. Jones's speed off the ball and ability to bend the corner flashes on film. He's an underrated rusher who has been a good deadline pickup for the Ravens struggling pass rush (31st in sack rate).

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer