The Patriots are in Santa Clara preparing to play the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX and now is the time of the week when we turn the page from pomp and circumstance to real football.
New England is in the Super Bowl in its first season under head coach Mike Vrabel and will play second-year head coach Mike Macdonald's Seahawks at Levi's Stadium on Sunday. Although the Pats head coach is our Coach of the Year, Macdonald is a strong candidate as well after leading Seattle to the top seed in the NFC with a 14-3 regular-season record.
After getting a first-round bye, the Seahawks beat two division opponents, the Rams and 49ers, to reach Super Bowl LX as the top dog in arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Seattle finished the regular season as the top-rated team in FTN Fantasy's DVOA efficiency metric. The Seahawks have the No. 1 scoring defense and the No. 3 scoring offense, while also ranking second in special teams DVOA with explosive return units. As one would expect in the Super Bowl, Seattle is the most complete team that the Patriots have faced this season – they're good in all three phases.
Before we dive deep into the Seahawks on both sides of the ball, the biggest unknown from this perspective is which version of the Patriots offense shows up for Super Bowl LX. The one that led the league in EPA during the regular season or an offense that has been through a gauntlet of top-10 defenses in three playoff games? In the playoffs, the Patriots are averaging just 18.0 PPG, down from second in the regular season (28.8 PPG). Maye led the NFL in regular-season pass EPA, total QBR, and passer rating, which is why he should be the MVP. However, the Pats QB is just 10th among 15 playoff quarterbacks in EPA during the postseason. Plus, Maye is also on the injury report with a right shoulder injury.
There's a realistic path to victory where New England's defense, which has been lights out, makes life difficult for Seahawks QB Sam Darnold. Darnold's career renaissance has continued in Seattle, becoming only the second quarterback in NFL history to lead his team to back-to-back 14-win seasons (Tom Brady, 2003-04), and Darnold has done it with two different teams (Seattle, Minnesota). That said, Darnold was a modest 11th in pass EPA for a Seahawks offense that was 10th in DVOA. Those are respectable rankings, but Seattle doesn't blow you away offensively under Shanahan tree coordinator, Klint Kubiak.
Although the Patriots defense shouldn't be ignored in this matchup, the Super Bowl feels like it will come down to the Patriots offense re-gaining its form against arguably the best defense in football. Macdonald is a master play-caller who lulls you to sleep with sound structure in a four-down, zone-based nickel defense and then catches you napping with an excellent pressure package. For the Patriots to win their seventh title, Maye and OC Josh McDaniels need to be at their best.
Let's preview the chess match in Super Bowl LX between the Patriots and Seahawks at Levi's Stadium on Sunday.
Offense Key: Take From the Rams Blueprint and Don't Get Caught Sleeping On Seattle's Pressure Schemes
The primary focus of Super Bowl week will likely be Maye and McDaniels squaring off against Macdonald's juggernaut defense, a heavyweight matchup on the NFL's biggest stage.
Defensively, Seattle ranks near the top of the league in nearly every metric: No. 1 in scoring defense, No. 1 in EPA, No. 1 in DVOA, No. 1 in third down defense, No. 4 in pressure rate, No. 5 in red zone defense, and No. 7 in yards allowed. Schematically, Macdonald wins with sound structure as a four-down linemen system that primarily plays zone coverages out of nickel packages (77% nickel, 2nd in NFL). The Seahawks play out of a two-high safety structure at the highest rate in the league (78.3%) and are eighth in zone coverage rate (79.6%). Despite basing out of light boxes, the Seahawks led the NFL in rush EPA allowed. Plus, Seattle also produced the lowest average target depth (6.6 yards) and the third-highest check-down rate (14.3%).
Seattle also has seven defensive linemen with 20-plus pressures this season: Leonard Williams, DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Murphy II, Uchenna Nwosu, Derick Hall, Boye Mafe, and Jarran Reed. Along with excellent depth on the D-Line, Seahawks LB Ernest Jones quarterbacks the defense and makes plays on the ball (six INTs). Nickel-safety Nick Emanwori is in the Kyle Hamilton role as a hybrid box/slot defender who allows Seattle to hold up against the run with five defensive backs – he's their chess piece that makes it all fit together. In the backend, CB Devon Witherspoon has the highest grade among corners in PFF's rankings. He's flanked by CB Riq Woolen, S Julian Love, S Coby Bryant, and third outside CB Josh Jobe.
Seattle's defensive line will likely get plenty of hype during Super Bowl week, headlined by Lawrence, Murphy, and Williams. Lawrence typically lines up outside the right tackle but will flip sides with Nwosu, while Williams plays the three-technique (B-Gap), and Murphy is tough to move as their shaded nose tackle (1/2-tech). Along with being fourth in team pressure rate and first in rush EPA allowed, the Seahawks D-Line is third in run-stop win rate and seventh in pass-rush win rate. On this side of the ball, the game will likely come down to the Patriots O-Line against the Seahawks vaunted defensive line.
To better understand how to attack this defense, let's break down what they do well. First, the Seahawks will play you straight up with sound zone coverages (cover two, quarters, cover three, cover six). Along with ranking fifth in split-safety zone usage, Seattle also excels in the pass rush with line stunts, running games up front at a league-high 24.5%. Seattle's stunts are also somewhat unique because they run them as pure picks rather than to penetrate gaps, bumping blockers off their assignments.
The other foundational element to this defense is Macdonald's pressure package. The Seahawks blitz schemes are the envy of the league, with many other teams borrowing their pressures. Seattle only blitzes on 24.8% of its coverage snaps, 25th in the NFL. But, when they do blitz, they rank No. 1 in blitz EPA by a wide margin (-0.40). The Seahawks make it difficult to anticipate their blitz calls and are very coordinated in their rushes.
Seattle dials up schemed pressures on 5.9% of their coverage snaps, dropping expected rushers off the line of scrimmage while blitzing unexpected rushers. Above, Seattle overloads the right side of the offensive line by blitzing Love and LB Drake Thomas from the second level while dropping Nwosu off the line of scrimmage on the opposite side of the line. The overload pressure produces an unblocked rusher off the right side and 49ers QB Brock Purdy checks the ball down underneath a cover-two zone.
Lastly, the Seahawks didn't play much man coverage in the regular season but their third-down man coverage rate is up to 40% in the postseason. Due to Seattle's uptick in man coverage rate, we'd expect to see some man-to-man from the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. More specifically, Seattle plays the third down above in cover-one double, where they double team Rams star WR Puka Nacua (left slot) while running a T/E stunt in the pass rush. On certain third downs, we would expect the Seahawks to double Patriots WR Stefon Diggs in single-high man coverages.
Okay, so that's what the Seahawks do well. Now, how do the Patriots attack their defense? Honestly, there isn't an easy button where Seattle is statistically inefficient at defending some schematic elements like play-action, bootlegs, motions, bunches, stacks, etc. They're mostly good at covering all of it, but the Rams were able to generate explosive plays in a few ways.
When it comes to attacking their split-safety zones, the one vulnerability that shows up on film is free access throws into the blitz. Typically, Seattle blitzes from one side and drops defenders off the other, so nobody drops underneath the routes behind the blitz (free access). LA leaves the back in to get into six-man pass protection (hello, Rhamondre Stevenson) against Seattle's pick pressure and Stafford hits Nacua on the skinny post to beat the blitz.
There are also vertical route concepts that have given Seattle's split-safety zones some trouble. Above, Seattle runs an exotic pressure where they blitz two corners off the left side of the defense and drop the right end out to rotate into a cover-two shell. LA counters by spreading the field out of heavy personnel, then runs the seam-wheel concept to Stafford's left to create a cover-two hole shot for a chunk gain.
Next, there's been discussion this week about Seattle basing their game plan on defense around cover six or quarter-quarter-half coverage (cover-two to one side, quarters to the other side). It's true that the Seahawks use cover six a lot, 17.1% (third-most in the NFL). It's also true that Maye produces -0.31 EPA per play against cover six, his lowest efficiency output against any coverage. However, Seattle is just 14th in EPA per drop-back out of cover six, so it would be sort of a weakness-on-weakness way to play Super Bowl LX if the Seahawks base their game plan around it.
If the Seahawks play more of this coverage to test him, look for Maye to attack underneath the zone to the quarters side, where Seattle likes to drop their ends out into the short zone distribution in their schemed pressures. Between the Pats backs and tight ends, there are usually matchups against linebackers in these split-safety zone schemes.
As for their post-safety coverages, offenses have had success attacking 1-on-1 coverage on the outside against Seattle's man structures. After sitting in a two-high shell before the snap, the Seahawks rotate a safety down post-snap to play cover-one. The safety rotation leaves Jobe in single coverage against Rams WR Davante Adams and Adams beats him on the go route for an explosive play (paging Kayshon Boutte).
Another passing concept the Rams used was the dagger concept, where the inside receiver runs the seam and the outside receiver runs the deep in-cut. Stafford adds some flavor here by no-looking this throw to Nacua, which opens up the dig even more for Nacua to house it. Obviously, it's hard to recreate Stafford's no-look passes, but you can see how the dagger concept could attack Seattle's three-buzz schemes (cover-three with post-snap safety rotation).
Ultimately, there won't be any shortcuts to beating the Seahawks defense. However, Rams QB Matthew Stafford generated 226 deep passing yards against Seattle in the NFC Championship Game, the third-highest mark in any game in the last decade. Granted, many of those deep completions were stellar throws and catches by the Rams, with Stafford producing five big-time throws vs. the Seahawks.
Seattle is also a modest 16th in EPA per scramble drill drop-back (-0.03) and 22nd in EPA per quarterback run (+0.25), so there could be some opportunities for Maye to create out of structure against Seattle's aggressive pass rush. This season, the Seahawks allowed the most passing yards on extended drop-backs (414 yards), which is mostly a compliment for how good the Seattle defense is at stopping conventional pass plays. Still, there's a chance that Maye, who is one of the most mobile quarterback Seattle has faced, could break the Seahawks defense down by using his mobility.
Defense Key: Get the Seahawks Offense Into Third-and-Long Where the Patriots Have a Big Statistical Advantage
Although the potential league MVP against the No. 1-ranked defense is fun, there should be as much chatter about the Patriots defense as there is about Seattle's; there's a path for the Pats to win this game on defense.
Having said that, Seattle is in the Super Bowl in part because they upgraded at quarterback and offensive coordinator. Klint Kubiak, the son of longtime Broncos and Texans coach Gary Kubiak, will reportedly be the next head coach of the Raiders after a terrific season running Seattle's offense. Like his father and his father's mentor, Mike Shanahan, Kubiak runs a West Coast offense built around zone-run blocking schemes. With similar roots as star play-callers Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, and Mike McDaniel, Seattle runs outside zone plays at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (28.6%).
The Seahawks also run the second-highest rate of plays from under center (52.6%), have the second-highest run-action rate (62.8%), and the second-highest condensed formation usage (55%) — foundational elements of the Shanahan tree. By being a run-first offense that ranks 26th in neutral pass frequency, Seattle stays on schedule and drives up Darnold's passing efficiency with play-action. This season, Darnold led the league in EPA per play-action pass (+0.41) and was fifth in explosive pass play rate (11.9%). The good news? The Patriots have the best play-action pass defense in the NFL, with an EPA per play of -0.19, including the playoffs.
Along with Darnold playing at a high level, RB Kenneth Walker has 256 total yards and four touchdowns through two playoff games. Star WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is excelling in the Puka Nacua role (119 catches, 1,793 yards) and JSN's 35.8% target share leads the NFL. After their prolific star receiver, only No. 2 wideout Cooper Kupp (593 yards) and TE A.J. Barner (519 yards) eclipsed the 500-yard receiving mark this season.
Kupp has found a new home in Seattle as the Seahawks second base receiver. Speedster Rasheed Shaheed is a dangerous field-stretcher, and fourth receiver Jake Bobo is a good blocker who caught a touchdown pass in the NFC title game. At tight end, Barner is a versatile blocker and underneath outlet, while TE Eric Saubert and FB Robbie Outz also help make up Seattle's heavy personnel groupings.
Given the style of offense Seattle plays, the key to the Super Bowl on this side of the ball will be the Patriots getting the Seahawks offense into third-and-long, where they have the advantage. On third-and-7+, Seattle's offense ranks 31st in conversion rate at 16.8% while the Patriots have the best third-and-long defense in the NFL (15.4%). As much as Darnold has improved, this offense isn't built for third-and-pass. Darnold was tied for sixth-highest turnover-worthy play rate during the regular season (3.4%), with a league-high 26 turnovers (14 INTs, 12 fumbles). If you take away Kubiak's easy buttons for Darnold off play-action and moving pockets, he can be susceptible to turning the ball over, which is where the Pats defense can thrive.
To break that run+play-action loop, we watched the film from games in which Darnold struggled against the Vikings (-0.23 EPA per play) and the first matchup against the Rams, where he threw four picks (-0.24 EPA per play). Starting with the run defense, Vikings DC Brian Flores dusted off New England's Super Bowl LIII game plan to challenge the same style of offense with Kubiak running an adjacent scheme to McVay's Rams.
The Vikings defense stopped the Seahawks outside zone schemes from under center by playing six-man fronts, the same approach New England used in Super Bowl LIII. Having six defenders on the line of scrimmage allows the two defenders playing over the tackle and tight end to set the edge of the defense, preventing the ball carrier from turning the corner. Minnesota also took advantage of nub (tight end furthest player outside) and condensed formations by running corner blitzes to shut down Seattle's run game.
Los Angeles played six (6-1) and five-man fronts (5-2) to load up on the line of scrimmage as well. In the backend, the Rams started in split-safety shells to either play cover-two (split-safety zone) or single-high safety buzz coverages (cover-1, cover-3). Above, the Rams rotate into a cover-one robber coverage (man-to-man). LA gets a good push inside with the DTs transitioning into pass-rushers off the play-action fake and Darnold throws an interception to the robber safety (Kinchens). Certainly, these are things the Patriots defense can replicate.
The Rams also majored in split-safety zones against the Seahawks. This time, they're in a five-man front against a play-action pass where Seattle wants to take a shot downfield. The cover-two shell forces Darnold to hold the ball, the pass rush moves him off his spot, and the Seahawks QB takes the check-down short of the sticks.
Once the Rams and Vikings got the Seahawks into obvious passing situations, the two defenses won differently. Los Angeles did it with structure. Minnesota did it with Flores' exotic pressure schemes, which led to breakdowns in Seattle's pass protections that caused issues for Darnold.
For example, the Rams got Darnold to hold the ball and force throws by running tricky cover-two schemes. The tricky part refers to the disguise where the defense rotates into a split-safety zone after the snap. Before the snap, Los Angeles has just a single-high safety and then rotates the right outside corner into the deep part of the field at the snap. Darnold doesn't like his initial read to his left, and by the time he moves off it, the stunting D-Line gets home to pressure him into a bad decision on another interception.
LA also had some success playing man coverage on third-and-long. Above, the Rams play cloud coverage toward JSN's side with the corner underneath and safety help over the top. Darnold opens to his left, looking for Smith-Njigba, who is well covered, and the free player (robber) floating in the middle of the defense can follow the QB's eyes as well. The Rams eventually collapse the pocket with a five-man rush and Darnold takes a sack.
The Vikings got to Darnold by running their simulated pressures. Minnesota blitzed on 66.7% of the Seahawks drop-backs, holding Darnold to 8-of-18 for 88 yards and two sacks when blitzed. The Vikings also held Smith-Njigba to just two catches for 23 yards. On this third down, Minnesota has eight potential rushers on the line of scrimmage. They then pop out rushers based on where the blockers go, with the occupied blitzers dropping into short zones. The scheme produces unblocked pressure on Darnold and he has no choice but to take a sack.
Seattle's early-down offense can be difficult to stop, ranking 10th in EPA per play on first and second down. However, that efficiency drops to 18th on third down and 31st in third-and-long. Although he has been great under pressure in the playoffs, Darnold still has his struggles when the pass rush gets home, ranking 24th out of 29 qualified passers in EPA per pressured drop-back. Obviously, JSN is a problem, but clouding his side of the field can be effective. Then, it'll come down to stopping the run game (Walker), preventing explosives to Shaheed, and living with the 1-on-1 damage to Kupp and others.
Although most of the discussion will be about Maye vs. Seattle's top-ranked defense, there's a realistic formula for the Patriots to win the Super Bowl on defense.
Key Matchups
DTs Milton Williams & Christian Barmore vs. Seahawks Interior O-Line
This is the most obvious mismatch in the Patriots favor. Seattle's tackles, Charles Cross (LT) and Abraham Lucas (RT), are solid. However, the Seahawks interior trio of RG Anthony Bradford, C Jalen Sundell, and LG Grey Zabel is an area the Pats DT tandem can exploit. If they can dominate inside, the Pats can stop the run and get interior pressure in Darnold's lap, which could produce some turnover-worthy plays by the Seahawks QB. Bradford, in particular, gets a bit high in his stance and gets beat on stunts, making the Pats interior rushers a bad matchup for the Seahawks right guard. Expect the Patriots to target him often.
CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Every defense comes into games against Seattle saying, "make someone else besides JSN beat us," and most have failed. My guess is we'll only see this matchup situationally, but it'll be appointment viewing. The Seahawks use of condensed formations and special alignments makes it difficult for a top corner to shadow Smith-Njigba. Kubiak uses JSN as a chess piece to hunt free releases, favorable matchups, and undress the coverage, so it's not easy to have Gonzalez travel with him all the time. Still, you'd like Gonzalez on JSN on third down with special attention (brackets) when he's inside the formation.
WR Kayshon Boutte vs. Seahawks CB Josh Jobe
The Seahawks three-corner packages feature Witherspoon (Pro Bowler), Woolen (former Pro Bowler), and Jobe, who comes in to play the boundary so that Witherspoon can bump inside. Although the numbers say that Witherspoon struggles the most on deep balls (6-of-9), the film says there are opportunities to go after Jobe, who has gotten lucky a few times by errant throws to open receivers. More specifically, the fourth-year CB will take the cheese on double moves, with receivers beating him over the top on stutter-and-gos. If they can get this matchup on the outside, Maye will likely give Boutte a chance vs. Jobe.
LT Will Campbell & LG Jared Wilson vs. Seahawks EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence & DT Leonard Williams
Although these two can line up anywhere on the defensive front, my guess is the Seahawks will target the two rookies on the left side with their two best pass rushers. As mentioned, Seattle likes to use line stunts to generate pressure, especially on third downs, so that's one thing Campbell and Wilson will need to prepare for in the matchup. The duo is also great at powering through the pocket and are savvy hand fighters, with Lawrence using an inside-out swipe counter to corner the edges. The Pats rookies will need to be at their best in Super Bowl LX.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
