The Patriots are back in Foxborough on Sunday, riding a four-game win streak with Drake Maye continuing to elevate his play in Year 2. This week's opponent, the 2-5 Cleveland Browns, boasts one of the best defenses in the NFL and should provide a difficult test for Maye and the Patriots offense.
Cleveland's defense is a beast. They rank 5th in defensive DVOA, 13th in pressure rate, and 1st in defensive rushing yards per attempt. On offense, a youth movement is underway, led by rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel and fellow rookies Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fanin Jr. playing significant roles. Receiver Jerry Jeudy remains a dangerous weapon who must be contained.
The Browns are coming off a win over Miami and have the pieces to challenge the Patriots in several interesting areas. Here are three things to watch closely.
1. Keep Letting Drake Bake
Maye has been outstanding this season, completing a league-leading 75.2% of his passes for 1,744 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions, with a league-best 116.4 passer rating. He's also added 200 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Simply put, if Maye can sustain these types of numbers, he'll remain firmly in the MVP conversation. But this Browns defense will be his toughest test yet.
Under coordinator Jim Schwartz, the Browns play an aggressive man-coverage scheme powered by a rotation of front-line defenders who are all disruptive.
Myles Garrett leads the way, ranking 8th in pass rush win rate among edge rushers and 3rd in run stop win rate. Maliek Collins, who's having a career season at age 30 with 26 QB pressures and 3.5 sacks already, and rookie Mason Graham rank 6th and 11th, respectively, in pass rush win rate among defensive tackles. The Browns rarely blitz (bottom five in blitz rate) but still rank in the top 10 in pressure rate when rushing four or fewer.
Maye must be decisive and be well protected, and most importantly, avoid turnovers.
2. Confound Gabriel
Rookie QB Dillon Gabriel has been solid since taking over and is coming off his best game yet, completing 72.2% of his passes in the win over Miami while continuing to avoid any turnovers in his first three starts. But he's taken 10 sacks and faces a Patriots defense that ranks 5th in points allowed and 11th in yards allowed.
The Pats should try to turn up the heat on Gabriel with their front four. However, they're 28th in DVOA, a possible signal that there could be plays to be made against them if Gabriel can stand tall against New England's disruptive pressure.
Gabriel leans on tight ends and backs in the passing game, with Harold Fannin leading the team in receptions and David Njoku coming in second. Njoku missed last week and was said to be "day-to-day" by head coach Kevin Stefanski; his status this weekend will be an important factor to keep an eye on.
Running back Jerome Ford is fourth on the team in catches, as they're heavily targeting position groups that have challenged the Patriots defense through the air, especially in the middle of the field.
The Patriots linebackers and safeties will have critical coverage responsibilities. They cannot allow Gabriel to find the kind of rhythm that Spencer Rattler and Cam Ward have found over the last two weeks, especially early in the game.
Forcing Gabriel into his first turnover mistake of his career would be a great way to grab momentum.
3. Stay Balanced
The Patriots run game showed signs of life last week, and building on Rhamondre Stevenson's performance will be key. New England ranks 27th in yards per attempt (3.7) and 32nd in rush EPA, and the Browns defense is top five in rushing yards (4th), rushing touchdowns (3rd) and yards-per-attempt (1st). On paper, it looks like an uphill battle for New England.
But the Pats cannot allow this to become a one-dimensional drop back game for Maye. Finding a way to continue building on last week's early rushing success will be a major key to keeping the offense on time while keeping Cleveland's potent pass rushers from teeing off.
That balance would keep Cleveland's pass rush honest and give Maye a chance to continue his MVP-caliber campaign. But it won't be easy, especially as New England leans so heavily on Stevenson. Could this be the week TreVeyon Henderson breaks loose a little bit?
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
