Although there's no sympathy from other teams in the NFL, the Patriots are in a tough spot as they head to Chicago for a Thursday Night Football matchup vs. the Bears at Soldier Field.

The Patriots are banged up and will now have a quick turnaround to prepare on a short week. Earlier this week, New England placed its 11th player on in-season injured reserve, with starting WR Romeo Doubs (shoulder) as the latest Patriot who will miss a minimum of four games. The Pats also lost three starting offensive linemen to injuries in Week 6, including their replacement for starting RG Mike Onwenu (IR).

There's a chance that the Patriots will head into Thursday night vs. the Bears (4-2) without their RT1 (Moses), LG1 (Vera-Tucker), RG1 (Onwenu), RG2 (B. Brown), WR2 (Doubs), WR3 (Hollins), CB2 (Davis), and top FB Reggie Gilliam, among others. Again, nobody will feel bad for the Patriots, but they're facing a huge challenge against Bears head coach Ben Johnson, QB Caleb Williams and company without a significant portion of their roster.

"We'll just have to figure out who we have available and find 48 (players) to put out there," Vrabel said. "It's a short week. If you don't finish the game, that's a quick turnaround."

Along with figuring out who will be available, which is the first order of business, games like Thursday night are when your big dawgs need to eat. Although the Patriots are missing several players, some of their biggest puzzle pieces are healthy. Those stars need to carry them: Drake Maye, A.J. Brown, Christian Gonzalez, Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Hunter Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, Robert Spillane, Marcus Jones, and others are getting paid well because they're driving this Pats bus to victories – it's time to earn those paychecks, boys.

Thursday Night Football isn't about having a Super Bowl-caliber game plan as the two teams cram for a non-conference tilt. Instead, your frontline players, the "progrum," and your base systems need to carry you to the winner's circle; it's about sticking to the non-negotiables (effort and finish) and who executes their core plays best. To that end, it's a big game for the Pats stars, head coach Mike Vrabel, and his coaching staff to prove their championship mettle with adversity hitting on the injury front.

As we transition to the Bears, we have to mention the comparison between Vrabel and Johnson, who were hired in the same coaching cycle. On Thursday night, we'll see the Patriots coach-quarterback tandem (Vrabel-Maye) against Johnson and Williams, who, in some parallel NFL universe, might've been on opposite sidelines. Vrabel, the reigning AP Coach of the Year, is 18-5 with a trip to Super Bowl LX as Patriots coach, so nobody is lamenting passing on Johnson (15-8, one playoff win). Still, there's a world where Johnson, who interviewed for the Pats job, is coaching Maye and the Patriots rather than Vrabel.

Let's preview the chess match between the Patriots and Bears in Chicago on Thursday night.

Offense Key: Exploit the Bears Explosive-Play-Prone Pass Defense on Early Downs

Starting with the Patriots offense, the first question OC Josh McDaniels is probably asking himself as he builds the call sheet this week is: can we block it?

There's uncertainty around who New England will start along the offensive line, which could greatly impact the plays McDaniels calls on Thursday night. According to Vrabel, starting guards Ben Brown (knee) and Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) are unlikely to play. However, starting RT Morgan Moses (ankle) has a chance to play. With first-rounder Caleb Lomu playing well as an injury replacement, he may need to slide inside to guard, where he took some reps on the left side during the spring.

The most likely scenario is that the Patriots will start Thursday night's game with the offensive line they finished with last week: LT Will Campbell, LG Walter Rouse, C Jared Wilson, RG Matt Pryor, and RT Caleb Lomu. However, if Moses can go, their best five might be: LT Will Campbell, LG Caleb Lomu, C Jared Wilson, RG Matt Pryor, and RT Morgan Moses. New England could also activate OT Marcus Bryant from injured reserve for added depth.

That said, Johnson tabbed veteran DC Dennis Allen to coordinate his defense when he was named Bears coach in 2025. Johnson is following a successful blueprint used by many offensive play-callers turned head coaches: hire a defensive coordinator with head-coaching experience to run his side of the ball. Allen first became a coordinator in 2011 with the Broncos, then coached the Raiders and Saints, taking over in New Orleans after coordinating Sean Payton's defenses for six-plus seasons.

Allen is an experienced schemer and play-caller who has an impressive pressure package. Chicago has a great third-down defense thanks to Allen's exotic pressure package, with the Bears ranking second in third-down conversion rate (25.8%). The Bears pass rush creates havoc, with a second-place sack rate (9.0%), a seventh-place pressure rate (39.7%), and a 10th-place blitz rate (39.7%). When you get into the drop-back game with Allen, his third-down pressure package is highly effective,

For example, the Bears like to play quarters behind their pressure schemes, where they simulate all-out pressure by having seven potential rushers on the line of scrimmage. At the snap, Chicago pops different defenders out of the rush to drop into short zones. By getting the protection to account for all seven blitz threats, it creates free runners or favorable 1-on-1 matchups. This time, Gordon gets matched up on the tight end and beats the tight end's pass block around the right edge for a strip sack.

The Bears pass defense can be disruptive in obvious drop-back situations. However, they've struggled on early downs in areas that the Patriots could exploit. On first and second down, the Bears drop to 29th in EPA per play (fifth on third down). So, if you can, avoiding third-and-pass vs. the Bears is a winning formula. Earlier this week, Maye alluded to the fact that the Patriots would like to avoid third down and obvious passing situations if they can on Thursday night.

"You've got to be good on first and second down. I think they're really good at getting off the field," Maye said. "They try to get you in longer distances, trying to give you some blitz looks, trying to get you to take some chances in zone coverage with their eyes on you, and then they'll mix in some man coverage."

Obviously, it would be nice for New England to run the ball well vs. Chicago, which ranks 26th in rushing success rate (44.6%). But the Pats have also struggled to run the ball, so it's weakness on weakness. Instead, one of the Patriots biggest strengths offensively, their ability to generate explosive pass plays, is also a Bears weakness. Chicago allows an explosive pass play on 18.4% of opponent drop-backs, 28th in the NFL. More specifically, the Bears have been giving up big plays off play-action, ranking 28th in EPA per drop-back vs. under-center play-action passes. In Week 5, Packers QB Jordan Love was 10-of-11 for 228 yards and a touchdown off play-action.

Green Bay attacked the Bears with play-action concepts that the Patriots could replicate with an undermanned O-Line. Above, the Packers run a two-man route concept to flood a cover-two zone, with WR Matthew Golden's "sail" route drawing the half-field safety's attention in the deep part of the field while WR Christian Watson runs a vertical down the sideline. Bears S Xavier Woods takes a bad angle, and Watson wins over the top for a 42-yard TD.

The Packers then dialed up another explosive by running a complementary play-action design. This time, it looks like TE Tucker Kraft is clearing out the sideline for TE Mark Redman's crossing route, which is another way to get to the same flood concept in the first clip. Instead, Kraft breaks across the field on the deep post after nodding to the corner route, and Love throws the ball back to the post to hit his tight end for a 46-yard explosive.

Atlanta also generated an explosive play by running the flood concept, hitting it more conventionally with QB Michael Penix connecting with WR Drake London on the sail route for a 39-yard gain. The Bears have clearly struggled to sort out flood concepts off play-action fakes, so expect the Patriots to test them with similar route combinations, while the two-or-three receiver designs let the Pats load up the pass protection.

With their injuries in the trenches, the Patriots can simplify things for the offensive line by exploiting a weak Bears run-and-play-action defense to stay out of obvious passing situations.

Defense Key: Prevent the Bears Offense From Dominating Time of Possession

On the other side of the ball, longtime readers and listeners know my affinity for Johnson's offensive scheme, so I'm excited to discuss what makes it so potent.

Schematically, Johnson's terminology is rooted in the West Coast tree, with some overlap with his preferred run scheme (outside zone) and core play-action concepts. When he teamed up with QB Jared Goff in Detroit, Goff and Johnson enhanced the Lions offense by adding elements Goff liked from Sean McVay's Rams offense, giving Johnson's scheme a flavor similar to the McVay-Shanahan tree.

However, there are some key differences. The Bears head coach focuses more on unique post-snap play design rather than pre-snap motion—Johnson motions with a purpose, like McDaniels, rather than motioning as a way of life. The Bears rank 19th in motion rate at 62.6%, just slightly ahead of the Patriots (61.5%, 22nd). Chicago bases its offense out of multiple tight-end sets, ranking second in the NFL in multi-tight-end usage (53.3%). Although his top rushing scheme is outside zone (52.3%, 2nd), I'd say he mixes in more gap runs with pullers than most of the West Coast offenses.

From a play-calling standpoint, the Bears rank second in run+play-action rate (62.6%) while Johnson gets to outside zone in several different ways, using motion to add blockers to the play side. Above is a cutup of the Bears base offensive plays, with their outside zone runs setting up boot plays, deep curl concepts vs. bailing corners, and flood concepts out of formations and initial post-snap movements that all sell hard run actions, which are difficult for defenses to read.

With an effective early-down offense, the Bears possess the ball at a league-high clip. But, unlike some West Coast guys, Johnson also has a big menu on late downs. Plus, you always have to be alert for a trick play with Johnson, especially hook-and-laterals. The Bears are sixth in third-down conversion rate (45.5%) while Johnson is an aggressive fourth-down decision-maker like Lions head coach Dan Campbell, going for it on fourth down a league-high 15 times. Earlier this week, Vrabel mentioned that Chicago is out-snapping its opponents more than any other team in the NFL (73.2 offensive plays to 50.2 defensive plays).

"It's a physical football team," Vrabel said. "Offensively, they extend drives. They run the football. They've been without Caleb [Williams] for a couple weeks, but certainly you can see the impact that he makes. Their runners or anybody that touches the ball is going to be a physical player, is going to be a tough tackle. We'll have to be great tacklers and do something to try to change the fact that their offense is out there for 73 snaps and their defense is out there for 50."

On Thursday night, the Patriots must avoid getting worn down by a Bears offense that has become more about ball control than explosive plays. Believe it or not, Williams ranks 31st of 33 qualified quarterbacks in average target depth (6.1) and last in deep pass-attempt rate (4.4%). A big part of that is how defenses are defending the Bears QB, who is probably having similar conversations as Maye about taking profits.

In his first three starts this season, Williams, who is deadly on scramble drills, is facing the second-lowest rate of man coverage (17.5%) and the seventh-highest rate of split-safety coverages (49.1%). To this point, the Bears rush offense, which ranks 11th in EPA per rush, hasn't made opposing defenses pay for playing softer zone coverages, so Williams has, in essence, become a "check-down Charlie" to maintain a high efficiency. To his credit, Williams still ranks fifth in pass EPA (+0.25) without his deep ball.

Although it was in poor weather, Vikings DC Brian Flores put out a blueprint for stifling the Bears offense by spamming cover-two zones. Above, the Vikings play the Bears staple post-dig play-action concept out of cover two, using the deep safeties to close the post while the middle linebacker drops underneath the intermediate route, leaving Williams no choice but to check the ball down for a short gain.

Flores also changed the post-snap picture on Williams to get to cover two. In this example, Minnesota disguises its coverage shell pre-snap, then rotates into an inverted Tampa-2, with the outside corner at the bottom of the screen dropping into the deep half so the deep safety can play in the middle of the zone (pole runner). The coverage takes away Williams's initial read, and he goes into scramble mode where he's forced to throw it away.

Again, the weather was a factor, but Flores held the Bears offense to three points by playing 21 drop-backs in a split-safety shell (63.6%), holding Williams to 1.0 air yards per pass attempt into those two-high safety zones (11-of-16, 109 yards, 6.8 YPA). My guess is the Patriots will try something similar to cap the Bears passing offense.

Having said that, there are two key 'X' factors worth discussing: Williams's ability to extend plays and matching up against Chicago's heavy personnel. With Williams, the play is never over; the Bears quarterback ranks second among qualified passers in extended play rate (17.6%). He's a gifted thrower on the move, with the power and arm elasticity to throw from any platform, while Williams can also burn defenses on scrambles.

The second 'X' factor is how the Pats, a three-corner nickel defense, will match the Bears base '12' and '13' personnel packages. Due to their heavy personnel tendencies, Williams has faced the highest amount of base defense of any QB this season (38.9%). The Pats don't play much base (20.7%), but they might be too light to stop Chicago's big bodies in three-corner packages. Will they play more base or three-safety nickel, as DC Zak Kuhr and company have done at times this season? New England currently ranks 16th in three-safety usage at 16.2% through six weeks.

Selfishly, I'm excited to watch the Patriots defense, which has done some great things, against one of the NFL's elite schemers in Johnson on Thursday night.

Key Matchups

WR A.J. Brown vs. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson

The Patriots need a bounce-back performance from their No. 1 receiver, who caught only three of his 10 targets last week despite a 66.6% expected completion percentage. Brown's hands let him down, but I don't expect that to continue. Johnson is the Bears' best corner based on reputation, and Chicago doesn't typically shadow receivers, but Johnson hasn't been as sharp this season. The Bears top CB is allowing a 73.1% completion rate into his coverage, ranking 94th out of 102 qualified corners in PFF grade (44.1). Someone is going to get right in this matchup on Thursday night.

LT Will Campbell vs. Bears EDGE Austin Booker

Without top pass-rusher Montez Sweat (suspension), Booker is their top guy. I'm a fan of his game as a fluid and long-striding speed rusher. Booker has a deep bag of counters off his high-side speed while he covers a lot of ground quickly when he runs the arc. Chicago also got good production out of edge rusher Daniel Hardy last week (six pressures, sack) in Sweat's spot. That's another matchup to watch in the trenches depending on who is at right tackle for the Patriots.

EDGE Dre'Mont Jones vs. Bears RT Darnell Wright

When you talk about heavyweight matchups in the trenches, the Pats best edge-setter vs. the heavy-handed Wright is some good, old-fashioned smash-mouth football. Chicago often runs right behind their power-blocking right tackle on stretch runs, as they should, while Jones typically handles setting the strong side of the defense. To stop the Bears outside zone schemes, you have to set sturdy edges, which starts with Jones vs. Wright.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer