With head coach Mike Vrabel's team riding a two-game winning streak, the Patriots (3-2) return to division play when they host the Jets (2-3) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.

Statistically, a five-game sample size is large enough for NFL trends to start taking hold. Following an up-and-down 1-2 start, New England and QB Drake Maye are climbing the rankings after back-to-back wins over the Bills and Raiders. So, before we get to the Jets, let's look at where the Patriots stand in some advanced metrics.

Despite the slow start, Maye is leveling off in the last two weeks and is now trending toward his MVP-caliber performance from a year ago. After posting the highest single-game total EPA output of any quarterback this season vs. Vegas (+28.7), Maye now ranks 12th in expected points added per drop-back (+0.20), fourth in drop-back success rate (52.2%), and fifth with a 19% explosive pass rate (success rate - gain 40% of the needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on late downs).

Last week, Maye snapped a nine-game streak with a turnover-worthy play in a clean win over the Raiders. Still, the under-the-hood numbers suggest the Pats QB was creating positive plays even in the first three weeks, while turnovers rightfully dragged down his EPA efficiency. As an offense, the Patriots are 11th in EPA per play while the defense ranks 16th in expected points added, with the pass defense (sixth) propping up a run defense (30th) that has struggled at times out of the gate. Overall, the Patriots are trending toward the top half of the league from an efficiency standpoint.

This week, the Patriots will now turn their attention to a Jets team that isn't quite the bottom-feeder they were in 2025. Sticking with the analytical theme, New York's defense has been a respectable 10th in EPA through five games while the Jets offense is a bit lower (20th). New York's two wins came against the Browns and Titans, who aren't necessarily world beaters, but the Jets are another example of a team that used free agency and trades to raise their talent floor while searching for franchise pillars at the top of the draft.

Although they didn't go on quite the same spending spree as the Raiders, the Jets handed out the 12th-most guaranteed money to veteran free agents such as LB Demario Davis and edge rusher Joseph Ossai while trading for veteran quarterback Geno Smith and S Minak Fitzpatrick, who joined a draft class that included a trio of first-rounders: OLB David Bailey (No. 2 overall), TE Kenyon Sadiq (No. 16 overall), and WR Omar Cooper Jr. (No. 30 overall).

New York is trying to get head coach Aaron Glenn's program off the ground after a 5-17 start. Plus, the Jets are still searching for their quarterback of the future, turning to Smith as a bridge to whoever they likely select with their first-round pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. The Jets have good building blocks in WR Garrett Wilson, recent first-round tackles Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou, and Bailey. Plus, they've added six new starters via trade or free agency and have a war chest of future draft picks. That said, the Patriots should take care of business as an established contender facing a team that is still in the middle of a rebuild.

Let's preview the chess match between the Patriots and Jets at Gillette Stadium in Week 6.

Offense Key: Don't Let the Jets Blitz-Happy Pass Rush Muddy-Up Sunday's Game

The Patriots offense has been rolling over their last six quarters and will now face a Jets defense that has been competitive through five games this season.

In year two under Glenn, the former Lions defensive coordinator has the Jets defense playing well, with New York coming off an 8-sack performance vs. the Browns last week. Overall, the Jets have been stout against the run, ranking 8th in EPA per play, while their opponent-adjusted pass defense is currently 11th in DVOA after facing the Titans, Packers, Lions, Bears, and Browns, so they've had some tougher offenses.

From a personnel standpoint, No. 2 overall pick David Bailey looks like the real deal as a speed rusher who typically lines up over right tackle. Bailey is tied for 10th among edge defenders with 20 quarterback pressures, six more than Pats second-rounder Gabe Jacas for the most among rookies. New York also gets contributions from Will McDonald IV and power-rusher Kingsley Enagbare, who have 12 pressures each, while Fitzpatrick ended the Jets NFL record 20-game streak without an interception in Week 4 vs. Chicago.

Schematically, Glenn wants to run a man-blitz defense, which is how his Lions defenses played. The Jets rank second in blitz rate (52.4%) and 10th in man coverage rate (36.4%). Last week, they heated up Deshaun Watson on 63.6% of his drop-backs with a 40.9% man coverage rate and sacked him eight times. For example, here's a rep that shows Glenn's identity as a play-caller on the film. The Jets play man coverage with a twist blitz, sending both linebackers. Cleveland runs a man-beater with shallow crossers (mesh concept), but Watson is too slow to come off the frontside, and the pocket collapses for a sack.

Although the Jets want to be a man-blitz defense, it'll be interesting to see how they approach Sunday's game vs. Maye. Playing single-high and blitzing Maye hasn't been a winning formula for most defenses: it lets Maye attack 1-on-1s outside the numbers, he's very efficient vs. the blitz, and he kills man-to-man on scrambles. From this perspective, if the Jets play the same way they did vs. the Browns, Maye will feast.

That said, Glenn has done a better job mixing in cloud coverage this season (cover-two and cover-six). The Jets cover-six rate has jumped from 2.3% in Glenn's first season to 13.9% this season.. The Jets may lean more on split-safety zones this week to take away Maye's deep shots after watching him hit four 20-plus air-yard bombs vs. the Raiders in Week 5.

For instance, the Jets rotate post-snap from a single-high structure to a tricky Tampa-2 defense here, where the outside corner to Watson's right drops into the deep half with Fitzpatrick. Davis runs the shoot as the pole runner while NCB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. blitzes off the left edge. Watson holds the ball, trying to read the post-snap rotation, and Brownlee eventually sacks him.

In the previous clip, the receiver at the bottom of the screen was open for a potential honey-hole shot opportunity. Watson must've seen that on the tablet when he came back to the sideline because he tried to hit that route later in the game. This time, the Jets show cover zero pre-snap in one of their simulated pressures before dropping into a similar post-snap Tampa-2 coverage. Watson tries to rip the hole shot, but Fitzpatrick shows that he still has range at age 29 and nearly intercepts the pass.

When it comes to the matchup on this side of the ball, the question is whether Glenn breaks from his core tendencies to play more split-safety, which the Jets have shown on film. Since the start of the 2025 season, Maye is third among qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play vs. man blitzes (+0.30) and is second over that span in pass EPA against single-high safety shells (+0.25).

As the Raiders can attest, if they play him the way they dialed it up vs. the Browns that led to their eight-sack extravaganza, Maye will have his way with the Jets defense on Sunday.

Defense Key: Can the Pats Get Healthy at Corner to Return to Man Coverage Roots?

Moving to the other side of the ball, the Jets offense feels similar to the Raiders offense the Patriots just shut down last week, though a little less flashy statistically.

Like Cousins, the Jets are turning to QB Geno Smith as a veteran bridge to their next quarterback. New York also has one dominant pass-catcher in Garrett Wilson and some running back talent (Braelon Allen). Last week, Allen forced eight missed tackles while gaining 102 rushing yards after contact vs. the Browns (24 attempts, 116 yards, TD). The Jets have some good bones if they can find the right quarterback-play-caller combination, but the jury is still out on their ability to do that.

After going with a younger coordinator in his first season as Jets head coach, Glenn replaced Tanner Engstrand with veteran offensive coordinator Frank Reich this season. I thought Engstrand did some good scheming last season with limited resources, but the Jets needed a change, and Glenn is the architect on defense, so Engstrand was a bit of a fall guy from a 3-14 season.

Reich is an experienced play-caller with roots in Andy Reid's West Coast offense. Reich never worked for Reid directly but was on Doug Pederson's staff in Philly, so you can connect the dots. From a formations and personnel perspective, the Jets are middle-of-the-pack in a lot of the key metrics: 14th in under-center rate (40.8%), 11th in multi-tight-end usage (41.2%), and their most used run scheme is outside zone (34.5%, 16th). Reich isn't a motion-heavy schemer, ranking 30th in motion rate through five weeks (54.9%).

The Jets are building their offense around a short passing game, outside zone runs, and duo concepts. New York leads the league in short pass rate at 61.5%, while Smith has attempted deep passes on only 8.9% of his attempts. Above, you see how the Jets typically play offense, running the "spear" concept where the double post routes run the frontside coverage off for Wilson to hit the backside crosser for a nice gain.

As for the blueprint against the Jets offense, Smith has mostly struggled against man coverage this season, save for a better showing last week vs. the Browns. Out of 31 qualified quarterbacks, Smith ranks 30th in drop-back EPA against cover-1 (-0.37). Outside of Wilson, whom you can commit extra resources to or cover with a hopefully healthy Gonzalez, the Jets other receivers don't scare you, which is probably why man coverage has been effective.

In many ways, it's like the Raiders with Brock Bowers, except Wilson is presenting the Bowers challenge this week. With a somewhat limited supporting cast against a high man-coverage rate, Smith ranks 19th in time to throw (3.01s) and pressure rate (36.6%) while ranking 30th in pressure-to-sack rate (25.4%). Smith's sack avoidance is subpar and he is likely holding the ball longer than he'd like because the Jets receivers have struggled to consistently separate from man coverage.

"Personally, I think a lot of it is because [Geno Smith] is trying not to turn the ball over. [Smith] had 17 interceptions last year, so he's holding the ball. I think it'll give some really good opportunities to our pass rushers to be able to get some forced fumbles, some sacks and stuff like that," said captain Kevin Byard III.

Cleveland got Smith antsy in the pocket with five-man rushes and man coverage behind them. Above, the Browns simulate pressure, then run an interior twist while passing off a shallow crosser by the tight end between the down safety and the dropping linebacker. The scheme gets Smith to hold the ball and eventually forces an incomplete pass as Smith tries to throw to his check-down.

The question for the Patriots is who is healthy at cornerback this week. After opening with man coverage vs. the Raiders, the Pats ended up having a zone-heavy plan because they didn't have a great answer for Bowers in man coverage. New England played man coverage on just nine drop-backs vs. Cousins, or 29%, without starting CBs Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) and Carlton Davis III (neck). Gonzalez has had his fair share of battles with Wilson, so one would expect that matchup to return if Gonzalez plays.

Based on the film and metrics, the Patriots should be able to play their brand of defense, with DC Zak Kuhr possibly heating up Smith early and then mixing in heavy coverage disguises.

Key Matchups

RT Morgan Moses vs. Jets EDGE David Bailey

In what feels like a theme all season, Moses will once again draw the tougher matchup with the Jets talented rookie mostly rushing over the right tackle. Bailey's first-step explosiveness stands out on film. He has legitimate high-side speed and a great motor to chase down runs and screen. It'll be interesting to see if the Jets flip Bailey at all to test rookie LT Caleb Lomu, with 83.3% of Bailey's snaps coming over the offense's right side so far this season.

CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Jets WR Garrett Wilson

If the Patriots star cornerback returns, it'll be his fourth matchup against Wilson, with Wilson (2022 NFL Draft) entering the league a year before Gonzalez (2023). In the first three matchups, Gonzalez has covered Wilson on 51 routes while allowing 8 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown, which is pretty darn good against one of the NFL's best receivers. Hopefully, we get to see Gonzalez vs. Wilson in Round IV.

QB Drake Maye vs. Jets S Minkah Fitzpatrick

My last key matchup is outside the box with a quarterback vs. a ball-hawking safety, but Fitzpatrick has earned the respect. As mentioned, the veteran snapped the Jets 20-game streak without an interception earlier this season, an NFL record. He also logged a rangy pass breakup last week (shown above). Although the Jets have only produced six takeaways this season, Maye turning the ball over multiple times feels like their only path to victory.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer