The Patriots are coming off a mini bye week after last Thursday night's loss to the Bears, with a 4:25 p.m. ET trip to Miami on the docket for Sunday.

Before we get to the Dolphins (1-5), New England's three-day weekend gave them a seven-game sample size to do some self-scouting. At 4-3, the Pats have shown promise in a three-game winning streak that leveled things off after a 1-2 start. Drake Maye is trending upward again, leading all quarterbacks in EPA per drop-back since Week 4 (sixth overall). That said, New England could improve on a few things, and head coach Mike Vrabel said Monday that the Patriots focused inward to start the week.

"(Monday) has just got to be about where we're at after seven games and some things that we can reasonably improve on. And some things we're just going to have to be okay with that we're probably not going to be able to improve on," Vrabel told WEEI radio. Later in the week, Vrabel expanded on self-scouting.

"When I look at it from my perspective, it's like, this is what we've seen from seven weeks. We can yell and scream about it till we're blue in the face, or we can coach it, and it's maybe not going to change. And it doesn't have to necessarily be negative," Vrabel said. "There are only certain ways to improve throughout the season, and maybe that's a few details or a few fundamentals, and to think that there's going to be a wholesale change based on what we've seen from seven weeks, I don't know. But we're going to keep harping on the fundamentals and giving guys a couple of things that realistically they can improve on."

Offensively, New England's running game falls into both categories: it's something it can reasonably improve, but it might not be able to in certain ways. The Patriots rank 27th in rush EPA through seven weeks but fifth in pass EPA, showing how much Maye and the passing game carry the offense. More specifically, the Pats rank 26th in EPA per play from under center, and their under-center play-action efficiency is also near the bottom of the league (31st).

New England mostly relies on gap schemes like duo runs, using interior double teams to move the line of scrimmage. In the first seven weeks, the Patriots are sixth in gap-run rate (48.6%) and fifth in duo run rate (37%). Patriots OC Josh McDaniels has diversified the run menu, with the Pats duo rate dropping from 46.6% in their first three games to 30% since Week 4. Still, New England is mainly trying to run downhill.

On the one hand, the Patriots could stick with their under-center philosophy and hope it improves with more time on task. You need to keep repping the run game to build chemistry between the backs and blockers on combination blocks and double teams, which is harder with a rotating offensive line due to injuries. However, you could also argue that if it hasn't taken hold in seven games, the Patriots may need to slightly change how they run the ball and call play-action off the run.

Under-center run actions offer multiple benefits, including selling play-action better, having more runs at your disposal, and building an offense for bad weather in New England. But the numbers would suggest that playing from under center isn't working. It could be time to lean more on shotgun or even pistol runs, where the Pats could incorporate RPOs and pistol actions to keep run-pass deception in their scheme.

Defensively, we noted in our film review of the Bears game that the Patriots need to be more DTF moving forward (details, technique, fundamentals). At times, the Pats defense has struggled to stop the run (22nd in rush EPA), tackle (11th-highest missed tackle rate), and allows too much space in zone coverage. Like their running game on offense, the Patriots must be more consistent in zone coverage.

New England is currently 30th in drop-back EPA in zone coverage (+0.23). One reason they might struggle in zone schemes is the need to blitz to create pressure. In man coverage, you can cover five eligible receivers with just five defenders. If you blitz in zone, you have only five or six coverage defenders to distribute across the field. From a resource-allocation standpoint, blitzing effectively in zone coverage can be tricky because so much space is left uncovered. Most high-quality zone defenses rely heavily on an effective four-man rush to keep seven defenders in coverage.

Ultimately, Maye is a great equalizer who can carry his team to the winner's circle. Still, whether the Patriots can find a running game and execute better in zone coverage could make or break their season.

Let's preview the chess match between the Patriots and Dolphins in Sunday's AFC East matchup in Miami.

Offense Key: Put the Dolphins Mistake-Prone Pass Defense in a Blender

The Dolphins are breaking in a new defensive scheme under first-year head coach Jeff Hafley, whom former Packers exec Jon-Eric Sullivan hired to build a new braintrust in Miami.

Hafley, who previously coached at Boston College (2020-23) and served as the Packers defensive coordinator (2024-25), is a well-respected defensive mind. Hafley runs a quarters-based system usually out of a two-high safety shell (60.5%). Miami subscribes to many quarters-family coverages, with the sixth-highest "cloud" coverage rate (33%) and split-safety coverage rate (51.6%). That said, like many of these systems, Hafley still plays cover three at the highest rate of any coverage, typically starting in a two-high safety shell and then rotating into cover-three with a weak rotation.

With a low man coverage rate (26.5%, 22nd), the Dolphins don't blitz much, ranking 25th in blitz rate under Hafley (29.3%). His defense relies more on sound structure and line stunts to generate pressure with a four-man rush, but early returns have been mixed. Part of that is because Miami still lacks great personnel. Plus, the Dolphins are installing a new scheme with key rookies in major roles, such as first-round CB Chris Johnson, second-round LB Jacob Rodriguez, and fifth-round S Michael Taaffe.

Although there are reasons to preach patience with the Dolphins defense, the numbers through seven games aren't pretty. Statistically, Miami has the worst pass defense in football. The Dolphins are 31st in pass EPA (+0.29), 31st in drop-back success rate (53.7%), 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed (8.1), and last in passer rating allowed (116.8) – a juicy matchup for Maye and the Patriots passing offense.

On film, the Dolphins are struggling to be assignment-sound in the backend, busting multiple coverages in their 28-25 win over the Jets last week. One would expect McDaniels to stress Miami's communication and force split-second, assignment-based decisions by using shifts and motions to undress their coverages. In simple terms, let's put the young Dolphins defense into a schematic blender and see if they can sort it out.

For example, the Jets use a little window dressing to get into this three-receiver bunch alignment to QB Geno Smith's right. The Dolphins match the three routes in lock-and-level, which suggests man coverage, but nobody takes the running back out of the backfield, and he sneaks out for a massive 41-yard gain. Most likely, the middle linebacker was supposed to man-up the back, but he works to close off the shallow crosser, leaving the back uncovered.

The coverage busts for the Dolphins defense are all over their tape vs. the Jets. Above, New York runs the flood concept from a dash protection (QB rollout) with a two-receiver stack alignment to Smith's right. This time, two defenders cover the off-the-line receiver in the stack, WR Garrett Wilson, and neither covers rookie Omar Cooper Jr. Cooper then gets loose in the man coverage scheme for a 52-yard gain.

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We could show you at least three more examples of the Dolphins defense busting coverage, while their assignment-based issues also carry over to the run game. Miami is a bit better against the run than the pass, ranking 16th in rush EPA, but they struggle against option-style runs. The Bengals got them with RPOs while the Jets ran plays like the counter bash scheme above to crease their four-man fronts with pullers.

Overall, the Dolphins have to feel good about getting their first win of the Hafley era last week, but Miami's head coach has to know his defense was lucky to win that game.

Defense Key: Improve Zone Coverages, Run Defense vs. the Dolphins Frisky Offense

Moving to the other side of the ball, I came away more impressed with the Dolphins offense than their defense, which is surprising given Hafley is a defensive-minded head coach.

That said, Hafley fired former Texans coordinator Bobby Slowik to run his offense. Slowik was once an up-and-coming coach from the Shanahan tree, serving on Mike Shanahan's famous Redskins staff, which also featured Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, and Mike McDaniel. However, Slowik fell out of favor when QB C.J. Stroud regressed after a terrific rookie season and became the fall guy in Houston.

After serving as the pass-game coordinator for the Dolphins in 2025, Hafley retained Slowik as his offensive coordinator, so Miami's offense is similar to McDaniel's scheme. Slowik is running a West Coast offense that leads the league in pre-snap motion rate (80.1%). Over the last two weeks, Miami's offense has woken up, ranking sixth in EPA per play (+0.12), ninth in pass EPA (+0.20) and fourth in rush EPA (+0.04) while averaging 26.0 points in games vs. the Jets and Bengals.

Although you see many West Coast passing staples and the Shanahan tree window dressing, Slowik's run game is unique from the rest of the group. Slowik is doing his best work as a run-game schemer, with the Dolphins ranking third in explosive run rate despite not having star RB De'Von Achane (torn ACL). Unlike the rest of the Shanahan tree, Slowik is majoring in gap runs, not outside zone, mostly out of two-back formations. The Dolphins are running the ball at nearly a league-high rate at 44.8%.

For example, the Dolphins like this GF Counter scheme, using motion to create soft edge for a 25-yard gain. When the receiver goes in motion, Jets rookie David Bailey goes from on-ball to off-ball linebacker, while the off-coverage corner takes the solo receiver. As Bailey vacates the edge as the formation strength shifts, the backside guard seals the end, the F tight end turns Bailey inside, and RB Ollie Gordon is off to the races.

The Dolphins also have the threat of the QB run game with dual-threat Malik Willis. Willis, who was drafted in the third round by Vrabel in Tennessee, is finally getting his chance to prove himself as an NFL starter. Over the last two weeks, Willis has been playing good ball, using his arm and legs to improve to 12th in drop-back EPA during this recent surge (+0.18). Above, the Dolphins run a QB draw on third down. With the Jets in man coverage, New York assigns a spy to Willis, but the center blocks the spy on the draw scheme, and Willis scampers for a third-down conversion in the red zone.

Like most West Coast offenses, the Dolphins also like to move the pocket for Willis, with Vrabel pointing out that Miami's QB can throw from different arm angles to maximize bootlegs. In this example, the Dolphins catch the Jets with a boot against an aggressive corner blitz scheme, and Willis delivers under pressure to speedy rookie Caleb Douglas, who beats a poorly pursuing Jets defense for a 63-yard touchdown.

The Dolphins run game is well designed and Willis creates problems as a runner and passer. I'm not trying to over-hype the Dolphins offense or Willis. But their run scheme is legitimately fun and Willis is a terrific athlete, with impressive arm talent to zip the ball around. Miami's problems offensively are predictable, though, with Willis struggling to execute against zone coverages from the pocket.

This season, Willis is 24th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in drop-back EPA vs. zone coverages (-0.15) and 29th against four-or-fewer pass rushers (-0.18). So, the question is whether the Patriots can stop the run and play sound zone coverage to keep their eyes on Willis. Willis's efficiency increases to 10th in both pass EPA against man coverage (+0.17) and against the blitz (+0.09). As we outlined earlier, those are two areas where the Patriots defense has struggled so far in 2026.

Sunday's contest will test whether the Patriots can shore up their run defense and zone coverage against an admittedly limited offense from a personnel standpoint.

Key Matchup

RT Morgan Moses vs. Dolphins EDGE Chop Robinson

The veteran right tackle, who has been playing through a foot injury, will face one of the NFL's most explosive edge rushers. Robinson is a legit screamer off the edge. His average get-off is 0.82 seconds, 19th-best among edge rushers (league average is 0.93s), and the former first-rounder is also a problem as a wrap rusher on stunts. The Pats have to avoid a Robinson strip-sack. Old friend Joshua Uche is also off to a solid start on the opposite edge (13 pressures, four run stuffs).

DT Milton Williams vs. Dolphins RG Jonah Savaiinaea

New England needs more splash plays from its best defensive lineman and lining him up over Savaiinaea might help. The former second-rounder has struggled since the Dolphins selected him one pick ahead of Pats RB TreVeyon Henderson in the 2025 NFL Draft (37th overall). Dolphins C Aaron Brewer is one of the best centers in football, so expect him to slide to Savaiinaea's side often.

Pats Defense vs. Dolphins RB Ollie Gordon

The Dolphins lead-back has a similar build to Jets RB Braelon Allen, who gave the Pats trouble in Week 6 (17 attempts, 78 yards). Gordon has big-play ability inside Miami's pulling schemes but is slower. Look for the Patriots to use "spill" techniques to compress the pulling blocks and force Gordon to bounce runs outside, where his limited speed makes him less effective.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer