The Patriots are back on the road this week, travelling down to Miami for an AFC East contest against a Dolphins team that is fresh off their first win of the season.
Miami might be 1-5 but they've played an extremely difficult slate of opponents, including four teams that didn't lose a game through the NFL's first four weeks – Las Vegas, San Francisco, Kansas City and Minnesota. Their resolve earned them a tough road win over the Jets last week as new head coach Jeff Hafley is starting to see his program take root.
Aside from the early results this season, every Patriots fan knows Miami can be a surprisingly difficult place to play, regardless of records. At one point over the course of the 1970's and into the 1980's, the Dolphins reeled off 18 straight wins in Miami over the Patriots.
The 2004 Patriots entered Week 15 with a 12-1 record, but fell 29-28 to a Dolphins team that was 2-11. And we don't even need to mention 2018's Miami Miracle walk-off win, one that cost the Patriots the top seed in the AFC, something they were able to overcome in a thrilling conference championship victory over the Chiefs in Kansas City.
There were other more impactful defeats at the hands of the Dolphins, including late-season losses in 2013, 2015 and 2019 that dramatically altered the Patriots playoff path. In '13 and '15, those losses meant the Patriots had to travel to Denver for the AFC Championship, and they lost both times. In 2019, the Miami loss cost them a bye week and they bowed out against Mike Vrabel's Titans in the Wild Card round.
You can never rule out the Dolphins, especially in Miami.
With that in mind, here's this week's 3 to Watch!
1. Start Fast
Before getting their first win of the season against the Jets, Miami had not led in any of their first five games. That changed at MetLife Stadium, with Malik Willis orchestrating a balanced seven-play, 76-yard touchdown scoring drive. It was a 7-0 lead that marked Miami's first time in front all season.
The Dolphins pulled away early, building a 21-7 lead and held on late for a 28-25 win. The formula was clear -- the Dolphins had a good start and turned it into a win. The Patriots cannot allow that to happen this weekend.
Fast starts have been a big part of New England's victories this season. They jumped up 10-0 on the Raiders, grabbed an immediate 7-0 lead on Buffalo after a perfect three-and-out by the defense and 12-play touchdown drive on offense. They did the same against the Raiders the following week, and, despite allowing a first-drive field goal to the Jets, they scored the next 17 points en route to a win.
Miami has some confidence coming off their first win. The Patriots need to quickly dismantle that confidence right out of the gate. It will minimize their effective run game with Ollie Gordon and put the pressure on Willis, who only needed 14 completions to beat the Jets.
2. Details, Technique, Fundamentals
Missed tackles and missed assignments played a major role in last Thursday night's loss to the Bears but that kind of sloppiness can often be expected on a short week's rest.
After an extended break and in an important road divisional game, the Patriots must clean it up. DTF (Details, Technique, Fundamentals) are a key part of Mike Vrabel's coaching mantra, one of his four core tenets, and it's a big key when facing a team like the 1-5 Dolphins.
"They play extremely hard," said Vrabel this week. "I have a lot of respect for what [coach Halfey's] done, and probably a unique set of circumstances, which they've kind of admitted to. But they've got a quarterback that Jeff's been around and seen him grow and develop and win football games. They run the ball, they shift motion every play offensively. They've run for 185 yards the past two weeks on average."
If the Patriots do all the little things right, it will avoid giving Miami easy points off explosive and blown plays, and should offer a direct road to victory.
3. Handle the Heat
Yes, the weather can be a challenge in South Florida, but as the calendar turns to November it should not be the factor that it can be in September. Rather, the heat is the Miami pass rush, which ranks seventh in blitz rate according to Next Gen Stats.
Chop Robinson (19th-ranked defender in pressure rate) is an ascending pass rusher in his third season and one of Miami's gamechangers on defense. Former Patriot Josh Uche has found a full-time role with the Dolphins and still possesses the speed to dip around opposing tackles and cause problems.
On the interior, Zach Sieler (13 QB pressures, 2 sacks) will challenge the Patriots backup guards, while, on the second level, active linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Jacob Rodriguez fly to the ball and make most of the tackles.
Hafley should look to attack New England's protection with an aggressive approach and it's one that Drake Maye and the offensive line will have to handle both before and after the snap.
"It's tough with how many different things defenses can do, how they can drop out these guys, bring these guys, bring the guys up the middle and drop the guys on the edge," said Maye this week. "So, it's something you've got to challenge every week. You've got to have a plan."
If they can decode Miami's rush, they should find offensive success.
