The Patriots are back on the road for the third time in four weeks and their first visit to the new Highmark Stadium.
Last year, the Pats knocked off the Bills in Buffalo in Week 5 of 2025, riding that momentum to their first AFC East title since 2019 despite the Bills exacting their revenge in the December rematch in Foxborough.
Through the first three weeks of the season the two division rivals have gotten off to nearly opposite starts. The Bills are 3-0, riding high behind Josh Allen, who is once again playing MVP-level football while leading the Buffalo offense to the most points in the league and throwing for 786 yards and five touchdowns.
Drake Maye had that kind of MVP form last season but through three games he hasn't returned to it… yet. Maye has just one touchdown to six interceptions, which leads the league, while the Patriots offense has fallen to 32nd in DVOA and 28th in EPA.
Despite the disparity between the two teams' early season performances, division games often break the mold. Over the last four matchups between these two rivals, the average margin of victory has been just over four points. Even the four-win 2023 Patriots found a way to knock off Allen. But there are also some blowouts in Buffalo, like the 2021 divisional round, that can serve as a cautionary tale if New England doesn't bring their "A" game to upstate New York.
Here are three things to watch that will define the game.
1. Nothing to Lose
Some weeks it's fun to dive into the X's and O's and break down the nuance of the matchup, but this week it's more about Mike Vrabel's Patriots team identity that starts with "effort and finish." For a 1-2 team looking to find themselves, that's a great place to start.
Bills fans are already making the shiny new Highmark Stadium a tough place to play, but last year the 2-2 Patriots were able to bring their own energy and pull off an upset, resetting the trajectory for their season.
This year's trip offers an even bigger opportunity. From early appearances, Buffalo is one of the best teams in the NFL, and New England looks like one of the worst. But appearances can quickly change, especially when it comes in the form of a divisional road upset.
Despite coming off a division title, a conference title and a Super Bowl appearance, the Patriots 1-2 start has quickly demonstrated that this is a new season and the good vibes from '25 will have to be earned again.
That's why a "let 'er rip" mentality is the best way to attack this game.
"If we want to get where we need to get to, we're going to have to go through bumps along the way," said Mike Vrabel this week. "This is all a part of the journey. When we talked about preparing for the journey, the journey wasn't always going to be 10 wins in a row, road warriors and everything else. It comes, sometimes, with turnovers, you give up touchdowns, you miss a field goal, and sometimes that's what the journey looks like."
2. The Run is the Way
The schematic answer to the Patriots offensive troubles remains the same – run the dang ball! The ineffectiveness of their ground game is clearly reflected in the statistics where the Pats rank 28th in rushing DVOA and 24th in rush EPA. Attacking via the run is also one of the few targets on Bills defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard's new-look defense that stands out after they allowed 131 rushing yards last weekend against the Chargers. They rank 21st in defensive rushing DVOA.
An effective running game also takes pressure off of the passing game. It forces defenses to commit personnel to the box instead of in the secondary where they can't constrict passing lanes and open zones. If you can't run, especially against light boxes, you're going to be in trouble.
"They're in the right spot. They're coached well. They know tendencies," said Maye this week of Buffalo's new-look defense. "They know what we like to do, and I think one of the best things about what they do is they're going to make you earn it. I think that's the Bills, and we've got a tough challenge."
Can Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson finally add consistency to the flashes of explosiveness they've shown? If they can't, Buffalo's potent pass rush is going to pin their ears back and continue to make it hard for Drake Maye to get into a passing rhythm.
3. Weather the Storm(s)
Josh Allen and the Bills offense are going to make plays and score points. The Patriots had a five-game streak of holding the Bills to under 30 points until last year's rematch that saw Allen drop 28 second-half points en route to a 35-31 win, while erasing a 24-7 halftime lead by the Patriots.
But even topping 20 points seems like asking a lot from a Patriots offense that has only two offensive touchdowns through three games. But scoring points is a prerequisite this week, and so is managing the inevitable big plays that Allen can and will deliver.
New England hasn't shown enough resilience in the early going of 2026, with A.J. Brown's injury against the Seahawks and Maye's fumble in the second quarter against Jacksonville serving as in-game turning points that the Patriots couldn't seem to recover from.
They must handle the adversity that Allen puts on every team and bounce back to make their own big plays to keep pace. Expect a rollercoaster that will require a 60-minute effort.
"It's just about identity and then continuing to practice that," said Vrabel this week. "But whether we run it, we have to be able to move the line of scrimmage. We have to be able to take care of the guys, run through some arm tackles. But we're really excited about the practice preparation. Huge challenge, just like it was and will be every single time we play Buffalo and Josh [Allen]."
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
