After a week of soul-searching in Foxborough, the Patriots will make the trip to the brand-new Highmark Stadium for an AFC East showdown with the Bills in Buffalo on Sunday.

Before we get into scheme talk, head coach Mike Vrabel faces an interesting dilemma with his young quarterback: go out there and sling it, or pull back the reins on Drake Maye? The old tried-and-true philosophy is that before you learn to win, you have to learn to stop beating yourself: limit turnovers, cut down on negative plays, and stop shooting yourselves in the foot. However, that's a fine line to walk because the "just don't screw up" coaching style can often have the opposite effect on a gunslinger.

My mind immediately goes back to a classic clip of Tom Brady talking about the offense taking the field for its final drive in Super Bowl XXXVI. With the first-year starter in a 17-17 game with 1:30 left, OC Charlie Weis told Brady to "take care of the football," with the Patriots still having the option to play for overtime. Backup QB Drew Bledsoe was in earshot when Weis told Brady to protect the ball and Bledsoe said to Brady: "[expletive] that, go out there and sling it."

That brings us to New England's next opponent, the Buffalo Bills, who are currently pacing the NFL by averaging 33.7 points through three games. The Bills recovered from a slow start last week, pulling away from the Chargers to improve to 3-0 under new head coach Joe Brady. After multiple playoff exits, the Bills made a major change by firing longtime head coach Sean McDermott and promoting Brady, their offensive play-caller under McDermott for three seasons. Although the offense has stayed the same, Brady tabbed Jim Leonhard as his defensive coordinator, who is transitioning the Bills into a base 3-4 defense.

With Josh Allen on the other side playing at an MVP level, trying to win Sunday's game by taking the air out of the ball on offense is a tough ask for the Patriots defense against Allen and Buffalo's top-ranked rush offense. Most likely, the Bills are going to "get theirs" and put some points on the board. Still, it might be the best formula for New England to put itself in a position to get a win. It'll be interesting to see what approach Vrabel takes with Maye and the Patriots offense in Orchard Park this weekend.

Let's preview the chess match between the Bills and Patriots at Highmark Stadium in Week 4.

Defense Key: Match the 'Bully Ball' Bills Identity in the Trenches, Run Game

The head of the snake for the Bills offense is star QB Josh Allen, who continues to play at an elite level now in his ninth season in the NFL, believe it or not.

Although last week's three-turnover performance wasn't his best, Allen ranks fourth in EPA per drop-back (+0.36) and seventh in total QBR (77.5). Any longtime reader or listener knows how highly I think of him. Even in a subpar performance by his standards in Week 3, Allen's out-of-structure playmaking and ability to produce explosive plays make him the single most challenging force to defend in the NFL.

However, the Bills have undergone an identity shift, with Buffalo building a bully led by their 6-5, 240-pound quarterback. Allen began his ascension into an MVP-caliber player inside former Bills OC Brian Daboll's scheme, which was spread-oriented to utilize Allen's physical tools. Now, Brady and the Bills have evolved into an under-center running juggernaut. The Bills lead the NFL in multiple tight end sets (56.5%), are third in under-center rate (48.6%), and sixth in run-action percentage (60.1%). Buffalo then uses motion (76.1%) and moves the pocket for Allen at the third-highest rate in the NFL (14.9%).

With lead-back James Cook as the focal point alongside Allen, the Bills have led the league in rush EPA since the start of the 2025 season. Above, you see how the Bills sequence plays from under center. In the first play, they ran a keeper off the wide zone action with WR Khalil Shakir on the "slide" route to beat the aggressive contain player (backside EDGE) for a 9-yard gain. Then, the Bills ran their preferred wide-zone scheme to the weak side of the formation, where Cook cut back for 12 yards.

Along with running bootlegs, the Bills also run West Coast-style play-actions like the "drift" concept. By having two tight ends blocking across the formation while the line slides in the opposite direction, the Bills counter-action pulls the Lions defense into the line of scrimmage, which opens the in-breaking "drift" route for an explosive play – rinse and repeat.

When it comes to defending Buffalo's offense, the first question the Patriots need to ask themselves is how they want to match the Bills heavy personnel groupings. The Pats played 27 snaps in base defense vs. the Jaguars last week without starting S Craig Woodson and were relatively effective, allowing just 3.9 yards per play. Before he was injured, the Pats were running a three-safety nickel package to match big personnel with Woodson, Kevin Byard III, and a third safety. Depending on Woodson's availability, step one is finding a personnel grouping that can remain competitive vs. the Bills early-down offense.

If they can hold their water on early downs, the Chargers had some promising man-coverage snaps against the Bills last week, with the LA defense forcing five turnovers (three by Allen). Above, LA plays the down in cover-one man with a spy on Allen. The Chargers get Allen to hold the ball with good coverage downfield, and with the spy, Allen can't scramble, and the Los Angeles defense collapses the pocket for a sack.

The Patriots are shutting opposing passing offenses down in man coverage, ranking second in EPA per drop-back in man schemes (-0.70). Obviously, you need to be smart about playing man-to-man by either spying or mush rushing so that Allen doesn't kill you on scrambles. Still, your confidence in the Patriots defense in the drop-back passing game remains high, but the game will be decided by New England's ability to defend the run and play-action passing game to match Buffalo's new bully-ball identity.

Offense Key: Dial Up Outside Runs, RPOs to Force the Bills into Post-Safety Defenses

Moving to the other side of the ball, the Patriots have only a three-game sample of new Bills DC Jim Leonhard calling plays at the NFL level to work off this week.

Structurally, Leonhard runs a 3-4 defense while playing the seventh-highest rate of zone coverage (85.5%). Although they're still a zone-heavy defense, Buffalo's coverage mix is different from what it was under McDermott, while the Bills are also playing more base and dime defense. Last season, McDermott stuck to his 4-2-5 nickel roots with a 61.8% nickel rate. This season, Leonhard is upping their base usage to 35.7% (22.7% in 2025) and is running dime packages at a 23.1% clip (15.3% in 2025). So far, the Bills rank 19th in defense DVOA, with an expected learning curve in a new scheme (18th vs. pass, 21st vs. run).

Although it was a different coaching staff, the Bills were the first defense to bring out the cover six "blueprint" against Maye in the second half of Buffalo's 35-31 comeback win over the Patriots in Week 15 last season. The Bills played 11 drop-backs in cover six, with eight of those coming in the second half, and Maye averaged just 4.3 yards per attempt with two sacks. Then, the Pats future opponents began copying McDermott's second-half game plan.

Leonhard has called cover six only 9.7% of the time through three weeks, but it's in the Bills arsenal. For example, the Bills run cover six here, matching routes on the backside with a "fist" tag, which means the cover-two side plays like it's man coverage while you still get the "box" to the quarters side. Typically, the defense zones off both sides of the field in cover six, but the Bills deploy it so the backside plays like two-man.

Buffalo's two-high safety coverages are sound, but they seem beatable when they play post-safety zone (cover three) or man coverage (cover one). In the first three weeks, offenses have a 50% drop-back success rate against the Bills post-safety coverages, 24th in the NFL. So, for the third week in a row, the question is: can the Patriots get the Bills defense into post-safety structures?

The Bills run defense could present an opportunity for the Patriots rushing attack. Buffalo ranks 23rd in rush EPA allowed and 27th in rushing success rate. The Chargers and Lions found success running the ball against the Bills two-high safety structures using some schemes the Patriots could borrow. In the first clip, the Chargers run a crack toss to the short side where the condensed wideout cracks the 3-4 outside linebacker while the fullback leads to the play-side corner to generate an explosive. On the second play, the Lions run an RPO against a light box for a nice gain.

Running more to the outside or from spread formations might get Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson loose. Some run-game success could then present Maye with more single-high opportunities. Defenses are playing the seventh-highest split-safety coverage rate against Maye this season to put an umbrella over the deep passing game (51.4%). For comparison, the Pats only saw split-safety coverage 38.9% of the time in 2025. If you're wondering where the Maye deep balls have gone, there is your answer.

When the Bills play post-safety coverages, like their most-used coverage, cover three, both the Chargers and Lions hit explosives on the "sail" concept, which floods the deep third in cover three. Above, the Bills run cover-three buzz, where the weak safety rotates down into the short zone distribution. The Chargers run their version of the "dash" pass where the outside vertical route clears out the sideline for the No. 2 receiver (Ladd McConkey) to hit a big play on a sail or corner route.

Although the coaching staff has changed for Buffalo, many of the same faces are on the Bills defense that played Maye and the Patriots in two close games last year. It'll be interesting to see how much Leonhard borrows from McDermott's plans against Maye last season.

Key Matchups

RT Morgan Moses vs. Bills EDGE Greg Rousseau

Although it's unclear how limited the 35-year-old is by his foot injury, Moses allowed three pressures last week vs. the Jags and will now face Rousseau, who is on an absolute heater. Rousseau primarily lines up over the right tackle, but he and Bradley Chubb will flip sides every so often. Rousseau's long-stride, long-limbed pass rushing and edge-setting have been dominant through three games, ranking second among EDGEs in QB pressures (22).

Patriots IOL vs. Bills DTs Ed Oliver & Deone Walker

There's some uncertainty about who will start at right guard for New England. The Pats placed starter Mike Onwenu (ankle) and top reserve Greg Van Roten (thigh) on injured reserve. Last week, T/G Walter Rouse replaced Van Roten while backup C/G Ben Brown is also an option. Either way, the Pats will be down to their third-string right guard against Oliver, who returned with three QB hits last week, and a second-year breakout defender in Walker. Walker is tied for second among DTs with 14 pressures through three games. Between the two DTs and Rousseau, the Patriots can't let Buffalo's front take over the game.

S Jaylen Reed/Craig Woodson vs. Bills TE Dalton Kincaid

The Patriots hopes of playing man coverage could come down to whether they believe their personnel can cover Kincaid, who leads all tight ends with 263 receiving yards through three games. Kincaid's a tremendous receiving tight end, with the straight-line speed for seam runs while also being able to separate quickly on short in-breakers. Do they believe Reed or Woodson is up for the assignment? Could either Christian Gonzalez or Carlton Davis cover Kincaid on third down? He's the Bills most dangerous pass-catcher, no doubt.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer