The Patriots are turning the page to a sneaky challenging road matchup in Jacksonville, where the Jaguars appear to be building a sustainable winner under head coach Liam Coen.

Coen was in the same hiring cycle as Patriots coach Mike Vrabel, with Vrabel being one of the hottest candidates on the market. While the Patriots were moving quickly to hire Vrabel, Coen was quietly putting together an impressive resume. The Jags head coach broke into the NFL with Sean McVay's Rams, toggling back and forth between the Rams and the University of Kentucky. He then led the Bucs offense to fourth in points scored in 2024, and the Jags hired him the following offseason.

Before we get into the Jaguars on both sides of the ball, let's do our weekly audit on the state of the Patriots. Despite beating the Steelers by 17 points in their first win last week, the conversation leading up to the Jacksonville trip is about the struggles of the Patriots offense and third-year QB Drake Maye. Last week, we discussed the two-high safety increase against Maye since the start of the 2025 postseason. We've also written about the turnovers, play-calling, and regression in the pocket Maye has shown early in the season.

Although those are fair criticisms for a unit that has two offensive touchdowns through two weeks, there were glimpses vs. the Steelers last week of the big-play ability that catapulted Maye into MVP conversations. In 2025, the Patriots led the NFL with an explosive pass rate of 13.7% (20-plus yards). However, that number decreased to 11.6% in the playoffs and New England didn't hit any explosives in its Week 1 loss to the Seahawks.

In Week 2, the big plays were back. Maye connected on four 20-plus yard passes. The Pats six explosives (four passes, two runs) were the second-most in the NFL in Week 2. New England hit on those big plays with some neat schematic wrinkles by OC Josh McDaniels.

For example, the Patriots are increasing the rate of moving pockets, whether those are gun rollouts or keepers (bootlegs) from under center. McDaniels has called a moving pocket on 10.1% of Maye's drop-backs, 13th among 32 qualified passers. Above, the Pats are running a "dash" pass, where Maye rolls to his right while New England runs a sail concept downfield to flood Pittsburgh's deep zones. The route concept puts the boundary defender in a bind and the Pats scheme open WR Romeo Doubs for a 63-yard gain.

Along with getting Maye on the move, the Patriots got their run game going by spreading the Steelers defense out. By playing out of a spread formation in a three-receiver set, the Pats get Pittsburgh into a two-high safety shell with only six defenders in the box. The Pats ran a play commonly known as "dart," which is just power but with the backside tackle pulling rather than the guard. The effective down blocks allow RT Morgan Moses to pull to the play-side linebacker, C Jared Wilson climbs to the second level, and slot WR DeMario Douglas "gets two" with a great block downfield to spring Henderson on his long TD run.

The goal here isn't to put lipstick on a pig, but there's a sea of negativity around the Patriots offense after a slow start to the season. Even prime Brady and Belichick had some rough Septembers. Are we on to Cincinnati yet? Although there's a lot of work to be done, New England's offense did put some good things on film that it can hopefully build on this week.

Let's preview the chess match between the Patriots and Jaguars in Sunday's Week 3 matchup in Jacksonville, with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET at EverBank Stadium.

Offense Key: Maximize Maye's Mobility and Prep for Another Cover-6 Week

As we transition into a deep dive into the Jaguars defense, Coen paired himself with another under-the-radar defensive coordinator who has quickly become a rising star in the coaching carousel.

Like Coen, Jags DC Anthony Campanile has been associated with a who's who of defensive minds. Campanile has coached under Brian Flores, Vic Fangio, Jeff Hafley, and Don Brown, among others. His defense is a melting pot of those systems, with the Jaguars mostly relying on "structure" like the Fangio tree while having some Flores and Brown chaos (blitzing) in his DNA.

As for their personnel, the Jaguars have bookend edge rushers in Travon Walker (rushes over RT) and Josh Hines-Allen (rushes over LT) who are game-wreckers. The Jags are using No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter as a full-time cornerback, but are rotating defensive backs in their nickel and dime-heavy packages (15.6% dime, 9th). They also lost top off-ball linebacker Devin Lloyd in free agency, replacing him with underrated veteran Foyesade Oluokun and fourth-year pro Ventrell Miller, who is Pro Football Focus's top-graded linebacker through two weeks (91.1 overall).

Discussing the Patriots "kryptonite" is getting tedious, but the Jaguars defense is another quarters-based system that plays zone over 76% of its coverage snaps. Although their most common call is Cover-3 (33.3%), they major in quarters (25%) and the infamous Cover-6. Campanile dials up blitzes at the ninth-highest rate (36.7%) while ranking in the top half of the league in simulated pressures and line stunts. Campanile is trying to take all the best things from his mentors to build out his own defense.

"They're trying to take away some of the boundary, 1-on-1 stuff. You can see that teams are trying to do that, have the field safety play in their run game and try to fit him. So, you see more teams trying to mix it up and try to cloud one side, cloud the other, and really try to keep things in front," said Maye about Cover-6. "They're trying to play split safety, let the guys up front stop the run and let the guys up front eat. So, realizing that also at the same time, just knowing that there are still holes and we have some chances to make plays."

More specifically, it's another week where we'll hear about the Jags spamming Cover-6 vs. Maye, who has struggled against quarter-quarter-half structures over the last two seasons. Since 2025, Jacksonville's Cover-6 rate of 19.6% is second only to the godfather of the coverage scheme, Vic Fangio, in Philly (21.6%). The idea behind playing Cover-6 is to cap vertical routes and limit explosives. Above, Denver is facing a 3rd-and-12, so the Jags run Cover-6 to force a check down short of the sticks.

Jacksonville also has an exotic blitz package. Here's an example of the Jags defense at its best, which is when they're simulating pressure in fire zones. Jacksonville puts six rushers on the line of scrimmage and then drops one defender out into a short zone to form a quarters structure. Denver runs a four-man slide to Bo Nix's left, with the back coming across to pick up the blitzer while the Jags run a three-man stunt over the left side. The pressure gets home and Nix is forced to throw the ball away on third down.

Although it's an impressive scheme, the Jaguars can be aggressive in their calls. The upside is that Jacksonville has already forced three turnovers this season after ranking second in takeaways in 2025 (31).  However, the Jags aggressiveness can be exploited. Offenses have found success utilizing their quarterback's mobility, which the Patriots can replicate. Since 2025, the Jags rank 25th in EPA per drop-back against moving pockets (+0.21) and 27th in EPA vs. option runs (+0.19).

Last week, the Broncos called six designed rollouts for Nix, who went 4-of-6 for 61 yards while producing +0.83 EPA per drop-back on rollout plays. Above, the Broncos ran a similar "dash" pass to the one we showed in the Pats audit, with WR Jaylen Waddle shaking a man-coverage defender along the sideline for a big play (first clip). In the second clip. Denver ran a bootleg where Nix hit his tight end for an 18-yard gain.

The Broncos also called successful option runs that produced two first downs. This time, they ran a zone-read with the fullback on an "escort" motion as a lead blocker. Nix keeps the ball around the edge when the backside defenders crash down on the inside run for an 8-yard gain.

Denver produced a 47% play success rate (73rd percentile) by featuring moving pockets, spread/option runs, and timing up crossing patterns when the Jaguars played single-high coverages. Although it took until the fourth quarter to break through with back-to-back touchdown drives, the Broncos play-calling mix was efficient and appears to be a game plan that the Patriots can replicate with their personnel.

Defense Key: Don't Get Stuck in Coen's Run+Play-Action Loop in Jacksonville

Moving over to the other side of the ball, the Jaguars bread-and-butter is Coen's early-down sequencing, like most of the West Coast/McVay/Shanahan tree.

Coen checks many West Coast offense boxes that have become prevalent across the league. The Jags play the third-highest rate of 12-personnel at 31.5% (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB) while majoring in early-down under center usage (38.3%, 9th), pre-snap motion (69.7%, 7th), condensed formations (40.9%, 10th), and outside zone runs (42.9%, 3rd). The Jaguars currently rank third in the NFL in rushing success rate (49.1%) to go along with a top-10 explosive run rate (12.5%). Coen is an impressive run-game schemer, using pre-snap motion and misdirection to create favorable blocking angles and numbers advantages. The Jags then use many of the WCO staples to sequence play-action passes off their successful run designs.

As for their personnel, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is surrounded by a productive wide receiver trio led by breakout receiver Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., and old friend Jakobi Meyers. Thomas Jr. hasn't quite recaptured his rookie-year form, but he's a dangerous deep threat. We all know about Meyers's route-running ability and Washington is a rising star whose 36.7% target share trails only Seahawks star Jaxon Smith-Njigba through to weeks.

Jacksonville is also all aboard the tight end train like many teams in the league, utilizing three tight ends at times, with Brenton Strange and rookie Nate Boerkircher giving them run-pass flexibility. At running back, speed-back Bhayshul Tuten is a home-run threat. Like so many West Coast systems, the game vs. the Jaguars will be won or lost on early downs. Jacksonville is currently fourth in EPA per play on first and second down, where they can get you caught in the run-action loop to avoid third-and-pass situations altogether.

Here's a good example of how the Jags window dressing can put the defense into a blender. Strange shifts into the backfield into a two-back set with Tuten and then Lawrence puts Boerkircher in motion to flip the formation strength at the snap. The second level of the Browns defense has trouble sorting out the motion. First, they seem to follow the motion with S Grant Delpit (No. 9). Then, Delpit switches onto Boerkircher when Strange goes into the backfield. After the motion at the snap by Boerkircher, Cleveland bumps over rather than running with the motion. All of that creates chaos for Jacksonville to run crack toss for 10 yards.

Now you've seen the Jags run the ball with all their pre-snap window dressing. This time, they bring Strange in motion at the snap and then have Boerkircher come across the formation (sift block) with the O-Line blocking down. The Browns are pulled up into the line of scrimmage by the FY counter action, which opens the play-action pass to the "drift" route.

Coen is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. However, Jacksonville can be had in the drop-back passing game. Although it's a small sample size, Lawrence currently ranks 27th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in pass EPA vs. the blitz (-0.43). Since the start of the 2025 season, the Jags are a more pedestrian 15th in late-down pass efficiency (third and fourth down). Lawrence is very effective at throwing the intermediate middle, but has four turnover-worthy plays through two games and has made some iffy decisions under pressure.

If the Patriots defense can survive the matchup on early downs, you'll take your chances with their cornerback trio and blitz package against Lawrence and his three receivers.

Key Matchups

NCB Marcus Jones vs. Jags WR Parker Washington

It'll be interesting to see how the Patriots match up against the Jags receivers. Washington is the engine of their passing game as a middle-of-the-field chain-mover. He has an even 50-50 split of wide versus slot reps due to Jacksonville's high rate of condensed formations. It feels like a speed-on-speed matchup for Jones, who can travel inside with Washington and run with him across the field (24.4% of Washington's routes are crossers). But there's an argument to be made for Gonzalez covering Washington on key third downs.

DTs Christian Barmore & Milton Williams vs. Jags LG Emmanuel Pregnon

We're circling the rookie left guard as a target on the Jags O-Line after Broncos DT Zach Allen logged multiple pressures against Pregnon last week. Pregnon gave up four total pressures while RG Ezra Cleveland gave up three, with Denver's pass rush taking over last Sunday's Broncos win (35.5% pressure rate). The Pats need their interior D-Line to wreck the game for the second consecutive week.

LT Will Campbell vs. Jags EDGE Josh Hines-Allen

After failing to log a pressure against Broncos All-Pro LT Garett Bolles last week, Hines-Allen will be looking for a bounce-back on Sunday. The Jags pass rush tandem will flip sides some, but it's typically Hines-Allen over the left side and Travon Walker rushing on the right tackle. Campbell has executed his assignments well through two games, to the point where you wonder if the Pats coaching staff will start trusting him to do some heavy lifting in 1-on-1 pass protection, which could allow them to open up the passing game.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer