The Patriots are hoping to notch their first win of the season in their home opener against the Steelers at Gillette Stadium at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

With their Week 1 loss to the Seahawks now in the rearview mirror, the attention turns to an early-season showdown with Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers for the second year in a row. Pittsburgh has turned its coaching staff over for the first time since hiring former coach Mike Tomlin in 2007, reuniting former Packers coach Mike McCarthy with Rodgers for one last dance.

Although there are new and old faces to discuss on the Steelers side, we'll start by looking inward at the Patriots offense, which is in a slump from running into a gauntlet of the NFL's best defenses over its last five games dating back to the 2025 postseason. From the start of last year's playoffs through Week 1 this season, New England is averaging just 15.4 points per game while generating -0.24 expected points added per play in that span.

Now, playing the Seahawks (twice), Broncos, Texans, and Chargers defenses is important context here. Still, the Patriots have struggled to score points against better competition lately, with the NFL's top defenses finding ways to cap Patriots QB Drake Maye's explosive plays through the air. Like any offense that breaks out with a young quarterback, opponents have spent time studying the Patriots to get a bead on what Maye and OC Josh McDaniels did to produce the league's highest explosive-play rate last season and it's fair to ask if a blueprint is forming against Maye and McDaniels.

Although it's only a five-game sample size, defenses have put an umbrella over the Patriots deep passing concepts. Since the start of the 2025 postseason, Maye has faced a 52.3% split-safety coverage rate (post-snap) and a 60.9% two-high safety structure rate (pre-snap). The split-safety coverage rate, which includes cover two, quarters, and cover six, would've been the highest mark in the NFL in 2025. Defenses are likely playing with two-deep safeties over the top of the Patriots offense to force Maye to beat them without his deep ball while keeping eyes on the Pats quarterback to jump passing lanes and limit scrambles.

Seattle's zone-droppers play extremely deep downfield, even at the second level of the defense. Above, the Pats run the commonly known "dagger" concept, where the slot receiver runs a vertical route (middle-read) and the outside receiver runs a deep dig. The Seahawks not only have two safeties over the top of WR Romeo Doubs's clear-out route, but they also drop LB Ernest Jones IV all the way underneath WR Mack Hollins's deep in-cut, leaving Maye with no choice but to check the ball down.

During their most recent five-game stretch, opposing safeties have lined up at 12.8 yards off the line of scrimmage on average against the Patriots, per NextGen Stats. For comparison, the league average during the 2025 regular season was 12.0 yards while the Bengals faced the deepest safety depth at 12.5 yards. In other words, the strategy against Maye has been GTFB: get the [expletive] back.

For the first three quarters last week, Maye was taking profits underneath Seattle's defense to produce a positive EPA per drop-back (+0.30). However, he was averaging only 5.8 yards per pass attempt and didn't throw a single deep pass (20+ yards). It's a boring brand of football, with Maye admitting that he "lost patience" with taking what the defense was giving him last week. But underneath passes and finding a running game is how you get defenses out of the blueprint.

Over the last four seasons, the Patriots offense has ranked 26th, 30th, 22nd, and 25th in EPA per rush. The last time they had an efficient run game was Mac Jones's rookie season in 2021 (seventh). In Week 1, they were last in the NFL in rush EPA (-0.45). Until the run game picks up to force opponents to put an extra defender into the box, Maye will have fewer 1-on-1 matchups on the outside to throw deep on opposing defenses.

"You can't get bored taking what they give you, and that goes for everybody. If the defense gives you something and the ball's supposed to go somewhere, then put the ball there," head coach Mike Vrabel said this week. "If you're playing a team that is in split safety, like they're in split safety to stop the pass, not to stop the run. We should be able to run the football. We'll see some more of that stuff, then we'll obviously have to have a plan for what we'll do going forward."

As we turn the page to the Steelers, one of my favorite football idioms is that the NFL is a copycat league. Pittsburgh and the rest of New England's future opponents are seeing the success of the two-high safety blueprint against Maye and the Patriots offense. You can count on the same strategy moving forward until the Patriots consistently find ways to move the ball and score points against this style of defense.

Let's preview the chess match between the Steelers and Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Week 2.

Patriots Offense Key: Stay Patient vs. the Steelers Zone Coverages

Starting our game-specific breakdown, the Steelers defense is returning their key veteran players under McCarthy and new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham this season.

Graham, a Bill Belichick disciple who worked for Josh McDaniels, is taking over as the defensive architect with T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Alex Highsmith, Jalen Ramsey, and company continuing as the foundation of the Pittsburgh defense. Graham coaches for three different head coaches in Las Vegas as a respected defensive mind before leaving the Raiders to reimagine the Steelers defense on McCarthy's staff. Given the success that Pittsburgh's core defenders have had over the years, Graham isn't completely reinventing the wheel here, but there are always changes when a new coordinator is running the show.

Getting back to the blueprint vs. the Patriots offense, Graham has leaned heavier on zone coverage schemes over the last two seasons than his Belichick roots would suggest. Some of that could be due to coaching for former Raiders coach Pete Carroll last season, a pioneer of the Seattle-3 system. Another piece of context that could be driving Pittsburgh's zone-heavy tendencies in their season opener is an injury to star CB Joey Porter Jr., the Steelers best man-cover corner. Porter Jr. returned to practice this week and is trending in the right to play on Sunday, so that could change Pittsburgh's approach.

That said, Pittsburgh didn't play a single snap in man coverage in its win over Atlanta and third-string QB Cooper Rush last week — 26 drop-backs all in zone coverage. The Patriots also faced Graham when he was with the Raiders last season, when he called a 90.6% zone coverage rate vs. Maye, the highest zone coverage rate the Pats QB has faced in a game in his career. Graham disguised coverage over 25 percent of the time to change Maye's post-snap picture, often dropping into zones after bluffing or simulating pressure.

The Raiders mostly played cover three (25 snaps) and cover two (16 snaps) to force Maye to beat them with precise underneath passes, which held the Pats QB in check. One would expect Graham to have a similar coverage mix in his second matchup vs. Maye.

For example, the Raiders threaten with six rushers on the line of scrimmage with two linebackers standing over the right side. At the snap, the linebackers drop out of the rush into short zones as Vegas forms a cover-three structure. Maye looks at the two in-breakers and TE Hunter Henry sitting down at the sticks to his right, but the Raiders have it covered and he takes a sack.

This time, the Raiders show a pressure front with the double-mug look (linebackers lined up in the A-gaps). At the snap, Vegas drops out of the pressure look and falls into a cover-two zone, with the weak safety dropping from in the box to split the field in half. Maye has slot WR DeMario Douglas breaking open at the sticks, but the pass sails too high for Douglas.

In Week 1, this year's Steelers played a mix of quarters (13 snaps) and cover three (eight snaps) against the Falcons. When they played cover three zone, Pittsburgh was in Cover-3 "mable" most of the time, which is an old Seattle staple where the backside corner plays man-to-man against the X receiver while the rest of the defense plays zone. The weakside linebacker also carries any crossing routes from the passing strength (three-receiver side).

New England will be playing without star WR A.J. Brown for the foreseeable future. Without Brown, wideouts Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams could see more playing time while free-agent addition Romeo Doubs needs a bounce-back performance. Graham game-planned successfully for Maye last season. When you couple that with how the Steelers played defense in Week 1, it could be another "blueprint" game for Maye and the Patriots offense where the opposing defense tries to keep everything in front of them.

Defense Key: Make QB Aaron Rodgers Hold the Ball & Win 1-on-1 WR-CB Battles

Moving to the other side of the ball, McCarthy has reunited with Rodgers after the coach-quarterback duo last worked together in Green Bay in 2018.

Although McCarthy is coaching and calling the plays, the Steelers offense in their season opener felt like a carbon copy of the scheme former OC Arthur Smith ran last season. Frankly, it was the same concepts Rodgers has run over the last several years, dating back to his time with the Jets. When the offense is under center, Rodgers operates a West Coast-style run-action system with bootlegs and zone runs. In shotgun, Pittsburgh runs a more pure spread scheme with RPOs, quick games, and isolation routes.

From a personnel standpoint, Pittsburgh added WR Michael Pittman Jr. this offseason to complement star receiver DK Metcalf while the Steelers hope third-year WR Roman Wilson breaks out in 2026. Based on their personnel moves, it appears the Steelers want to be more three-receiver heavy after ranking 31st in 11 personnel usage in 2025 (38.7%). Pittsburgh has two solid tight ends in Pat Freiermuth and blocking TE Darnell Washington, so they were very two-tight end heavy last season, which might be why their deep passing game was limited. In Week 1, the Steelers ran three-receiver sets on 57.8% of their offensive plays.

Last season, Rodgers ranked 23rd among 34 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per drop-back, with the fastest time to throw (2.59s) and the lowest average target depth (6.0 air yards) in the league. It felt like he wasn't interested in hanging in the pocket to let plays develop, so Rodgers was avoiding pressure by getting rid of the football quickly. When he got the ball out in under 2.5 seconds, Rodgers generated +0.12 EPA per play (16th in the NFL) but was 26th in EPA when he held the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds (-0.22).

​In Week 1, Rodgers flipped the script with an average time to throw of 2.95 seconds while his average air distance was 9.5 yards. Rodgers also attempted seven passes over 20 air yards vs. the Falcons, the most he has attempted in his last 44 starts (Week 9, 2022). Although he threw deeper downfield than last season and made a few plays off script, Rodgers went 0-for-7 on 20-plus air-yard throws while ranking 25th out of 32 QBs in EPA per drop-back in Week 1 (-0.12) – throwing the ball downfield more didn't help his efficiency.

From this perspective, the key to beating Rodgers is to get the 42-year-old to hold the football so that you can impact his performance with pressure. Rodgers won't wait around for the pass rush but his sack avoidance and play under pressure aren't what they once were when he was a more nimble playmaker in his early days. Since the start of the 2025 season, Rodgers is 32nd out of 39 quarterbacks in EPA while under pressure (-0.65) and was 22nd in percentage of pressures that turned into a sack (21.4%).

As the Patriots saw last season, when you let Rodgers hit the top of his drop and let the ball fly, he still makes some big-time throws. However, man coverage could be the answer for the Patriots to keep Rodgers from getting the ball out quickly. Rodgers was 5-of-12 for 37 passing yards and a 77.1 passer rating vs. man coverage in Week 1. Atlanta played man coverage with robber help and brackets on Metcalf to force Rodgers to throw deep. As mentioned, all those deep pass attempts fell incomplete (0-7).

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In their Week 3 matchup last season, the Patriots mixed in some drop-8 coverages knowing that blitzing Rodgers wasn't a wise strategy due to his quick release. Instead, the Pats dropped their ends out into short help zones with man coverage downfield. The strategy forced Rodgers to create off-script, and the 3rd-and-5 pass eventually fell incomplete as Rodgers threw on the run.

As we've seen over the last few seasons, Rodgers can sometimes have throwback games early in the season before the body blows start to catch up later in the year. In 2025, Rodgers threw for four touchdowns in his Steelers debut in a 34-32 win over the Jets, and he threw it back against the Patriots in a 24-3 victory as the Jets quarterback in Week 3, 2024. That said, the formula against Rodgers is to force the Steelers QB to hold the ball and throw under pressure.

Key Matchups

LT Will Campbell vs. Steelers EDGE Nick Herbig

Although most of the pre-game attention will be on limiting eight-time Pro Bowler T.J. Watt, who typically rushes over the right tackle, Herbig's speed gave Campbell problems in his rookie season. The Steelers explosive pass-rushers logged four pressures against Campbell, including two quarterback hits, using his speed to threaten the outside and then crossing over to the inside on a series of pass-rush wins. It'll be another interesting litmus test to see how Campbell fares against Herbig the second time around.

LG Alijah Vera-Tucker vs. Steelers DT Cameron Heyward

Vera-Tucker struggled in his Patriots debut with a team-high four pressures allowed vs. the Seahawks. The free-agent addition was a little rusty in his first game since the 2024 season and will now draw Heyward in this matchup. The veteran defensive tackle is incredibly stout against the run and has a knack for batting down passes, deflecting three throws at the line of scrimmage last week. The interior O-Line has another tough assignment this week with Heyward, Keeanu Benton, and Derrick Harmon.

CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Steelers WR DK Metcalf

When the Patriots played the Steelers last season, Gonzalez was inactive due to a hamstring injury. Metcalf caught a touchdown pass on CB Carlton Davis III, who shadowed the Steelers No. 1 receiver on 20 coverage matchups. With the Patriots likely playing a lot of man coverage, one would expect Gonzalez to take Metcalf this time, with Davis on Pittman and a speed-on-speed matchup between NCB Marcus Jones and Roman Wilson.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer