Jacksonville, Fla. â The Patriots trip to the Sunshine State fell flat in a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars at EverBank Stadium on Sunday.
During training camp, the conversation around the Patriots focused on concerns about their roster depth. Mike Vrabel told reporters after a preseason week against the Eagles that "I don't think we have a very deep team," in response to questions about why the Patriots head coach rested his starters throughout the preseason. Vrabel didn't believe the risk of injury to his frontline players outweighed the reward of getting live reps in exhibition games, so QB Drake Maye and most of the starters didn't play in the preseason.
On Sunday, New England got its first "depth test" in Jacksonville. The Patriots played without star WR A.J. Brown, starting RG Mike Onwenu, top edge rusher Dre'Mont Jones, starting S Craig Woodson, and promising rookie TE Eli Raridon. Brown and Onwenu are on injured reserve with ankle injuries, with the former reportedly eying a return in 6-8 weeks. Joining them on injured reserve are Dell Pettus and Quintayvious Hutchins, stressing the depth on defense even more. Then, Onwenu's replacement (Greg Van Roten) was injured during the game.
Well, the final score speaks for itself: the Patriots weren't overly competitive against the Jaguars, but the bigger picture speaks to more than just depth issues. I've been reluctant to press the panic button, and it's still early with plenty of time in the season to turn things around, but it's fair to be concerned about QB Drake Maye and the Patriots after a 1-2 start, as head coach Mike Vrabel candidly stated after the game.
"My concern level is very high for this football team," Vrabel said post-game. "I just wanna coach and improve. I think that's the biggest thing when you come off a game like that. You just wanna get back and work."
Maye turned the ball over three more times on Sunday to bring his season total to seven giveaways through three games (and it could've been more). Maye isn't seeing the field well and doesn't seem decisive with any of his decisions. Even his downfield completions feel like he's not always sure what kind of ball to throw and he's making bad plays worse by making ill-advised throws into coverage (see Travis Hunter's interception before halftime). You wish you could get to the bottom of Maye's struggles beyond trying to crawl inside the third-year pro's head, but we'll have to settle for what the Pats QB said after the game.
"We can't get out of our own way and I can't get out of my own way, personally. I gotta look at myself in the mirror and take this as a turning point. It's Week 3," Maye said following Sunday's loss. "What we are doing out there offensively is unacceptable."
We'll get into some of the details about how things went south, but this is a game where you need to see the forest for the trees. New England didn't do anything well enough to be competitive. The Jags offense also averaged over 5.3 yards per play and was far better than the Pats defense in situational football, finishing 8-of-12 on third down and 5-5 in the red zone. Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel and his staff have a lot of work to do, with a matchup with the Bills looming next week â it doesn't get any easier.
Here are eight takeaways from the Patriots loss to the Jaguars in Week 3 that dropped them to 1-2.
1. QB Drake Maye Struggles with Multiple Turnover-Worthy Plays vs. Jaguars
The Patriots need to get their young quarterback right, and fast, or the season will get away from them before star WR A.J. Brown returns to hopefully save the day later in the year.
Although it's fair to point to a depleted supporting cast, with Brown acquired to be Maye's go-to receiver, this goes beyond play-calling and an injury to Brown. Based on my live charting, Maye had four turnover-worthy plays: two interceptions, a dropped interception (wouldn't have counted due to a penalty), and a lost fumble. In the box score, Maye finished 14-of-25 for 199 passing yards, two interceptions, and a lost fumble. From this perspective, it's just as discouraging to see Maye fight his GPS on which balls to throw when he's targeting receivers downfield.
For example, the Patriots get WR DeMario Douglas open downfield by having him roll into his route on a "cheat" motion where he releases into a go route. The Pats have two verticals on that side of the field with a split-field safety trying to midpoint the routes. Maye pulls the string on the throw to Douglas, with the Pats wideout adjusting back to the ball. But it's possible that he could've ripped this throw in-stride to Douglas for an even bigger play.
On his first-half fumble, Maye might've gotten caught in between decisions when WR Kyle Williams used a "best release" to beat Jags CB Jarrian Jones at the line of scrimmage. Williams appears to be stacking the corner on a go route for a potential big play but Jags S Eric Murray drops deep into the quarters coverage and Maye loses the ball in his throwing motion. Maye said after the game that C Jared Wilson got some blood on the ball, but, at the same time, "I have to hold on to the football."
We aren't in Maye's head, so we can't say exactly what's driving his struggles. But it seems the Pats QB is struggling mentally more than he's physically (Maye denied any lingering shoulder pain from last year's playoff run). There seems to be something off about Maye's decision-making, not just on the turnovers, but how he's seeing the field and the decisiveness with which he's throwing the ball to open receivers.
The question is can Vrabel and Patriots OC Josh McDaniels fix their young quarterback? Only time will tell, and we'll learn a lot about Maye's mental toughness in the coming weeks.
2. Patriots Need More From Pass-Catchers, Even Without A.J. Brown
After planning all camp to have a superstar No. 1 receiver, it's a tough break that Brown went down with his high-ankle sprain just 30 snaps into his Patriots debut and it's hard to evaluate it completely until Maye gets back on track. Still, Maye doesn't seem to be in a rhythm throwing to any of his pass-catchers besides WR Mack Hollins, one of the holdovers from last season.
Other than Hollins, WR DeMario Douglas flashed open deep a few times, including on a missed opportunity where Maye sailed an open corner route too high for his 5-foot-8 receiver. New England also needs to get significantly more from free-agent addition Romeo Doubs, who had one catch for 8 yards until garbage time in the fourth quarter. Maye is missing open receivers at times, but there were also plenty of covered drop-backs, and the Patriots QB's margin for error is probably too thin to sustain a consistent offense right now.
3. Offensive Line Injuries Continue to Mount in Jacksonville Loss
Although the quarterback is presently the biggest issue, the Patriots offensive line was down to their third-string right guard after veteran Greg Van Roten left the game after 20 plays. New England turned to backup T/G Walter Rouse rather than C/G Ben Brown to replace Van Roten. Maye was under pressure on 48.4% of his drop-backs and the Pats run game was also inconsistent without Onwenu, their best point-of-attack run blocker. New England only had four successful runs on 15 combined carries for Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. The passing offense would benefit from more balance.
4. New England Deploys Zone Coverage-Heavy Plan vs. Jaguars Offense
Defensively, the Patriots chose a zone-coverage-heavy plan against the Jaguars rather than relying on their strength as a man-coverage defense. Obviously, the coaches have reasons for everything they do. In this case, my guess is the Patriots felt Jacksonville's condensed formations and motions would be a problem in man coverage. Offenses that run condensed formations can be harder to cover in man-to-man because the receivers are bunched together, creating vulnerabilities for rub routes and quick-hitting crossers, while running all over the field with pre-snap motion can also be challenging for a defense.
That said, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence was highly efficient against the Patriots zone coverages. Lawrence was 14-of-21 for 141 passing yards and three touchdowns against New England's zone coverages. When the Patriots played man coverage, Lawrence was 5-of-8 for 41 passing yards and an interception and a sack. Above, the Pats dialed up a simulated pressure with man coverage where S Jaylen Reed was covering TE Brenton Strange. The Patriots push the middle of the pocket into Lawrence, who throws hot over the middle, and the pass deflects off Strange into the hands of Marcus Jones.
The Patriots didn't travel their corners vs. the Jaguars wideouts with only a 31.3% man coverage rate after playing over 41% man coverage in the first two weeks and those zone structures struggled on Sunday.
5. Jaguars Offense Controls Line of Scrimmage in Sunday's Week 3 Loss
Entering the game, we wrote in Gameplan about avoiding getting stuck in the Jaguars run-action loop where they're most lethal offensively. Along with the late-down dominance by Jacksonville, that's where the Jags won the game. Jags RB Bhayshul Tuten had nine successful runs to zero stuffs, averaging 4.9 yards per rush, while the Jags had a 53.3% rushing success rate. Jacksonville's run game was more methodical than it was explosive, with only one rush over 10 yards for Tuten. Still, the Patriots defense never got the game on its terms, with Jags QB Trevor Lawrence having only 23 straight drop-backs, which didn't give the Patriots defense enough opportunities to make momentum-swinging plays on Sunday.
6. RB Rhamondre Stevenson Continues to Lead the Pats in Backfield Snaps
Another storyline coming out of last week's win over the Steelers was how the Patriots would handle their running back rotation following Stevenson's fumble in Week 2. The Pats lead back had a fumble-less streak going before putting the ball on the ground trying to break a tackle last week, but he now has four fumbles dating back to last season and 11 over the last three years. On Sunday, Stevenson played his usual workload by leading the Patriots backs in snaps (32) while RB TreVeyon Henderson played 21 snaps. Again, there wasn't much space in the run game for the Pats backs and the rotation itself didn't change.
7. Patriots Play More Base Defense Without Starting S Craig Woodson
The next question coming into Sunday's game was how the Patriots would manage defensively without starting S Craig Woodson (inactive, shoulder) and third-safety Dell Pettus (IR). In the first two weeks, the Pats played a three-safety "big" nickel to combat offenses' heavy personnel groupings. With only Kevin Byard III, Jaylen Reed, and practice-squad elevation Mike Brown available, it seemed unlikely that the Patriots would be able to play three-safety packages vs. a Jaguars offense that features two-tight-end sets. Instead, the Patriots used base defense vs. the Jaguars heavy groupings, with LB Darius Muasau as the third linebacker. New England's base package wasn't the issue on Sunday, with Jacksonville averaging 3.9 yards per play in 27 plays vs. base. It was New England's typically stingy nickel packages that were their undoing, which gave up 6.5 yards per play.
8. K Andy Borregales Goes 2-of-3 on Field Goals, Misses 38-Yarder
As the last thing on the list of issues for the Patriots, second-year K Andy Borregales was shaky on Sunday. Borregales missed a 38-yard field goal that would've pulled New England within eight points. He also made a 35-yarder where the ball flight was slightly off. Borregales had an inconsistent preseason and isn't striking the ball particularly well. New England's kickoff coverage unit also gave up a 42-yard return â when it rains, it pours.
The Patriots will now have to flush the loss in Jacksonville quickly as a trip to Buffalo to face Josh Allen in his new home looms in Week 4.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
