New England is back home for a Patriots fan's dream weekend that will culminate in a huge non-conference tilt vs. the Packers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.

Whether you're into nostalgia or appointment-viewing chess matches, this weekend is for you in Patriot land. On Saturday, the Patriots will induct the greatest tight end of all time, Rob Gronkowski, into the team Hall of Fame in a ceremony that begins at 1 p.m. ET. Then, Gronkowski will be honored at halftime of Patriots-Packers while former teammate Tom Brady is in the booth calling the game for Fox, his first time on the call for a Patriots game. The Patriots will also be hosting members of the Super Bowl LI championship team for a 10-year reunion. Oh, and there's a football game between two playoff-caliber teams.

As we transition into football, the next two weeks against NFC North opponents will be very telling for the Patriots. However, roster health is unfortunately the top story around the team. The Patriots hope to get healthier at wide receiver, with star A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) and WR Mack Hollins (calf) possibly returning. The Pats opened the 21-day practice window for Hollins, who is eligible to return from injured reserve. But predicting a game plan is difficult when the Patriots are so banged up on offense. Ultimately, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will build a call sheet he feels the healthy players can execute.

Assuming they're healthy enough to compete, which is a good assumption with Maye at quarterback, we'll learn a lot about the Patriots in these next two games against the Packers (5-3) and Lions (5-2). Although the Patriots division rivals in Buffalo have to play them as well, it's a tough year to draw the NFC North in the NFL's schedule cycle. The division is a combined 22-8, with all four teams above .500. Nobody will be able to poke Pats fans about an easy schedule this year, but New England will certainly be battle-tested.

Let's preview the chess match between the Patriots and Packers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.

Offense Key: Another "Take the Profits" Matchup for Patriots QB Drake Maye?

As we outlined in the intro, the game plan for the Patriots offense comes down to who is available in QB Drake Maye's supporting cast, with Brown, Hollins, and top TE Hunter Henry (foot) uncertain to play.

That said, statistically, the Packers defense is Green Bay's strength. After losing Jeff Hafley to the Dolphins head coaching position, Packers coach Matt LaFleur hired former Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon as his defensive coordinator. Gannon is running a split-safety nickel defense that ranks seventh in EPA per play, 10th in pass EPA, and 11th in rush EPA. The Packers defensive coordinator mostly fits into the "structure" brand of defense rather than being a blitz-heavy schemer.

The Packers play heavy amounts of zone coverage (74.9%, 10th), specifically split-safety zones, which they call at the third-highest rate in the NFL (61.4%). As a result, Green Bay has been great at limiting explosives, while holding opposing quarterbacks to a 25% completion rate on deep passes (4-of-16). The Packers are seventh-best at limiting explosive pass plays (12.6) and have created the second-most turnovers in the NFL through Week 8 (15). Although the talk about Maye's patience has lessened in recent weeks, Sunday's matchup could be one where he'll need to take the profits against the Packers pass defense.

Here's a typical drop-back for the Packers defense. Green Bay likes to change the picture on opposing quarterbacks, typically starting in a single-high safety shell and then playing two-high safety coverages post-snap. Above, the Packers rotate into a tricky Cover-2 zone where the middle hook and weak safety take away Panthers QB Bryce Young's in-breaking routes as his primary read. With the pocket collapsing, Young has no choice but to check the ball down, and the Packers limit it to a very short gain.

On third down, Gannon will dial up pressure. In particular, the Packers like creeper pressures where off-the-line defenders blitz while Green Bay drops defenders off the line of scrimmage. In this example, the Packers blitz the MLB and the weak safety while dropping the two rushers over the right side of the line. The pressure scheme creates a free runner by putting the running back in a 2-on-1, and Young is hit as he throws an incomplete pass.

On paper, Gannon's defense could force the Patriots to play left-handed by taking away Maye's deep ball and forcing the Pats skill players to win after the catch. Looking at some repeat plays that have given the Packers defense trouble, the Lions and Panthers opened zone voids with multiple in-breaking routes into Green Bay's two-high coverages. In the clip above, the Packers rotate into one of their tricky Cover-2s. Carolina runs double slant-flat, with the inside slant occupying the midlde-hook player and the second slant breaking into the open space. Young hits WR Jalen Coker on the move and he takes it for a 26-yard TD.

Detroit's go-to play call was their double-dig concept. This time, the Lions get into a double-sidecar formation to run a lead action. With the solo vertical route clearing out the coverage, the Lions then have double digs running into the secondary. The play-action fake pulls the linebackers responsible for the middle of the field into the line of scrimmage and Detroit opens a huge void for WR Jameson Williams.

Although the Patriots can throw deep against any defense, the Packers are calling coverages to take away those vertical shots – Maye's patience could be tested on Sunday.

Defense Key: Prepping for a Pass-Heavy, QB Jordon Love-Centric Packers Offense

Historically, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has been right with his Shanahan tree pals in terms of how often Green Bay plays from under center, runs the ball, and runs play-action.

When you turn on the film, you expect to see Love under center with outside zone schemes marrying to two-and-three receiver play-action concepts with a deep and intermediate element to go along with a check-down (often called an outlet in WCO verbiage). In 2025, the Packers ranked 12th in under-center rate (36.3%) and had the fourth-lowest pass rate in the NFL (54.8%), reflecting their commitment to a run-action-heavy style of play most closely associated with the Shanahan tree.

For example, Green Bay still sprinkles in its under-center playbook. In the first clip, the Packers run an outside zone toss out of a condensed '12' personnel formation (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB). The Packers then marry those outside-zone actions with play-action boots. In the second clip, Green Bay has '13' personnel on the field and runs the half-boot fake for Love to rip the "throwback" post for a big play down the field.

To me, that's the Packers scheme we're accustomed to seeing. However, the Packers have the second-highest pass rate (66.1%), rank 27th in under-center rate (29.4%), and have nearly doubled their spread formation rate from 8.7% in 2025 to 16.1% this season. Simply put, this has become a Love-centric offense led by WR Christian Watson, WR Matthew Golden, and TE Tucker Kraft – a big departure from typical LaFleur scheming.

The question is why: why has a run-heavy system from under center become a shotgun-pass offense? The short answer is that Green Bay has one of the worst rushing attacks in football, even with top back Josh Jacobs the last two weeks. The Packers are last in the NFL in rush EPA (-0.27) and yards per carry (2.9), while ranking 32nd in pass-blocking win rate with a depleted offensive line.

Without a run game, Green Bay has leaned more on Love and the passing attack. Even with Jacobs over the last two weeks, the Packers called pass rate (65.9%) and under-center rate (22%) have held steady. Green Bay just isn't a good rushing offense, which impacts its ability to string together play-action passes. Coupled with the fact that the Packers have a lot invested in their passing attack, they've shifted their offensive identity to build it around Love, Watson, Golden, and Kraft.

Along with paying Love franchise-quarterback money, the Packers signed Watson to a contract extension (4 years, $92M) and drafted Golden in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. With their two best receivers being deep threats, Love has thrown a league-high 46 deep pass attempts. Love is also very efficient on in-breaking routes, ranking 12th in EPA (+0.30). So, the Packers offense is filled with verticals, slants, and posts.

Here are a few examples of how the Packers move the ball offensively. One thing you come to appreciate about Love's game is his willingness to hang in the pocket, often throwing back-foot fadeaways that break a lot of quarterback rules, but he gets away with it because of his high-end arm talent. Love actually leads all QBs in average time to pass attempt this season (2.43s), but he's usually willing to let his routes develop.

For instance, the Packers use 3x1 formations to create favorable slot matchups for Golden and backside single coverage for their tight ends and running backs. Above, the Packers put Golden in the inside slot (No. 3). Carolina plays a cover-zero structure in the back end, which gets Golden matched up on an out-leverage safety on the high corner route for a 24-yard touchdown.

Without a consistent early-down offense, the Packers have been middling. Green Bay ranks 23rd in points per game (21.4) and 17th in EPA per play (+0.01). The Packers passing offense has been decent, ranking 12th in pass EPA (+0.142). But these aren't the results the Packers hoped for this season, and they feel weighed down by offensive line and run-game struggles. For the Patriots defense, New England has to keep a struggling Packers run-and-play-action offense down.

By the numbers, Love has been picking apart two-high safety zones, adding +0.19 EPA per drop-back when teams play split safety. More specifically, he shreds Cover-2 by adding +0.29 EPA per drop-back. However, Love is more pedestrian against single-high defenses like Cover-1 (-0.01) and Cover-3 (-0.04). The Pats should be able to play man coverage against Green Bay, but Kuhr's confidence in man-to-man could come down to how the Patriots handle the Packers tight ends and running backs.

When defenses play man coverage, we often highlight the corners versus wide receivers. However, defensive coordinators also need to factor in whether they have capable man-coverage defenders on all five eligible receivers, including tight ends and backs. I've been waiting to see CB Carlton Davis III draw a tight-end matchup, and this might be the week he takes Kraft when he's detached from the formation. Jacobs has also been a featured receiver since returning (13 targets, 11 catches, 68 yards, 2 TDs).

Given how efficiently Love has thrown into two-high safety coverages, the Patriots might match strength-on-strength with their man coverages against the Packers pass-catchers.

Key Matchups

CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Packers WR Christian Watson

Watson is the Packers most dynamic pass-catcher, setting up a good-on-good matchup with Gonzalez. Watson is a deep-ball specialist and builds second-level breaking routes off his vertical stems. Gonzalez and Watson haven't faced each other in a game, but I saw them go toe-to-toe in joint practices in Green Bay (2023). Obviously, Gonzalez was just a rookie, but the crowd erupted when Watson caught a deep ball vs. Gonzalez in practice. My guess is that NCB Marcus Jones would then match speed-on-speed with Golden.

DTs Milton Williams vs. Packers C John Williams

The Packers could be starting two backups on their interior offensive line, with Williams in for starting C Sean Rhyan and Aaron Banks at one of the guard spots for injured starter Travis Glover. The Pats need to keep a struggling rush offense down and prevent Love from hanging in muddy pockets, which he's comfortable doing, by exploiting the Packers weak interior O-line on Sunday.

LT Will Campbell vs. Packers EDGE Lukas Van Ness

Despite playing without star defender Micah Parsons, the Packers have gotten good contributions from Van Ness (team-high 28 pressures), Brenton Cox Jr. (22 pressures), and rookie Dani Dennis-Sutton (20 pressures) in the pass rush. Van Ness, who spends 73% of his time as a wide-nine over the left tackle, is a tough matchup. The Packers edge rusher has great size (6-5, 272) and length (34-inch arms) as a power-oriented rusher. Campbell has to manage the space Van Ness has to get rolling downhill on his bull rush.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer