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Replay: Patriots Postgame Show Mon Nov 02 - 05:00 PM | Tue Nov 03 - 09:55 AM

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After Further Review: Drake Maye film breakdown, defense review, quick-hit film notes from win over Dolphins

Breaking down the film from Drake Maye's monster second half vs. the Dolphins on Sunday.

Drake Maye runs for a 2 yard touchdown for the go-ahead score with 59 seconds left in the third quarter.
Drake Maye runs for a 2 yard touchdown for the go-ahead score with 59 seconds left in the third quarter.

The Patriots are coming off a huge second-half comeback win, avoiding a slip-up in a victory over a one-win Dolphins team in rainy Miami on Sunday afternoon.

Over the last two games, the Patriots have played on a Thursday night in Chicago and in a heavy rainstorm in Miami. They've also been playing without several key contributors on offense: WR A.J. Brown (ankle/knee), WR Romeo Doubs (shoulder), WR Mack Hollins (calf), RB TreVeyon Henderson (illness), LG Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring), RG Mike Onwenu (ankle), and starting TE Hunter Henry was lost to a foot injury during Sunday's game.

Those aren't excuses but rather context that makes you wonder how much any of this means in the grand scheme of things. The hope is that the Patriots offense gets healthier, with Brown managing his injuries, Hollins eligible to return from injured reserve in Week 9, and Doubs and Vera-Tucker hoping to return at some point this season. Plus, short weeks on the road are weird, and weather games also skew things, so what is real and what isn't real for these Patriots?

Defensively, the hope here is that some of the poor fundamentals we saw against the Bears were a short-week aberration. After missing 17 tackles in Chicago, the Pats defense settled down and missed only two tackles vs. the Dolphins. Now, Miami's skill group isn't as dynamic as the Bears. Still, the Patriots rank a solid ninth in missed-tackle rate through the first eight weeks, per PFF (14.2%).

The zone coverages are still a work in progress, especially against out-breaking routes against bailing or off-coverage corners (23, 18-yard gains). And there's some chess-matching going for DC Zak Kuhr when it comes to offensive play-callers hunting the Patriots coverage tendencies (more on that later). Still, I'd lean toward the defense being mostly sound fundamentally, even if some areas need to be ironed out.

As for the other side of the ball, Patriots QB Drake Maye climbing back into the elite quarterback discussion feels very real. Yes, Maye faced the worst pass defense in football by nearly every metric on Sunday. Still, without a slew of top supporting cast members, Maye produced +0.42 EPA per drop-back against the Dolphins defense, even after starting slow as he adjusted to what was going on around him and the rain.

Drake MayeSince Week 4 (NFL Rank)
EPA/Drop-Back+0.45 (1st)
Big-Time Throw Rate8.5% (1st)
Turnover-Worthy Play Rate1.1% (T-1st)
CPOE+9.6% (2nd)

Since the turning point of his season in Week 4, Maye leads all quarterbacks in pass EPA (+0.45), is second in drop-back success rate (55.7%), and second in completion percentage over expectation (+9.6%), trailing only Bengals QB Joe Burrow in the latter two metrics over that span. He also has the best big-time throw (13) to turnover-worthy play (2) ratio, and the turnovers evaporating might be the most impressive part.

By my eye test, Maye's limited drop-backs (27), the weather conditions, and a slow start led to a weird game to chart. But he still produced seven 'plus' plays to just four minus throws/decisions. Maye is now a plus-31 in my charting over the last five games, with no negatively graded games. Maye has completely stabilized and is playing like an MVP candidate again. With the Patriots getting this level of quarterback play, Maye and a mostly well-coached operation can keep New England afloat until reinforcements hopefully arrive as the offense gets healthier for the stretch run.

Here's a review of the Patriots defense and quick-hit film notes from a Week 8 win over the Dolphins.

Defense Review: Patriots Change-Up Zone Coverages in Win over the Dolphins

Heading into Sunday's game, we wrote about the Patriots defense's struggles in zone coverage in our own little "self-scout" as a part of last week's game preview.

New England's defense came into the week ranked 30th in EPA per drop-back in zone coverage (+0.23) while ranking third in pass EPA in man coverage (-0.36). Given their cover talent, it stands to reason the Patriots would be more effective in man coverage, especially because their man-free structures allow them to blitz five, needing only six defenders in coverage. As a result, the Pats rank third in man coverage rate through Week 8 (45.3%), with DC Zak Kuhr leaning into their man-coverage prowess.

However, any good defense needs to play both man and zone coverage. It's not realistic to play man coverage every drop-back, whether because of player stamina or schematic reasons like facing a mobile quarterback, as the Patriots did on Sunday. As a result, my hope was that we'd see the Pats use Sunday's game to work on improvements in zone coverage, with all due respect to the limited Dolphins offense.

On Sunday, the Patriots played a 73% zone coverage rate, their highest in a game this season. Dolphins QB Malik Willis was 15-of-19 for 197 yards and two touchdowns throwing into zone coverages. The box-score stats look impressive for Willis, but he added just +0.02 EPA per drop-back with a 44% success rate while getting sacked three times against zone coverage. Plus, with eyes in the backfield in zone, the Pats also kept Willis's scrambling in check, a big reason defenses run zone-heavy plans. Willis didn't register a single scramble in the game after leading all QBs in scramble yards through seven weeks (214).

The other tendency that was starting to pick up steam for the Patriots defense was their use of tricky Tampa-2 zones. Although they use creative post-snap rotations to disguise Cover-2, New England is playing Cover-2 at the second-highest rate in the NFL at 19.7%. Opposing offenses expect to see Cover-2 from the Patriots, especially out of their simulated pressure fronts, with Miami anticipating non-traditional Tampa-2 on a 23-yard completion in the second quarter.

On Sunday, DC Zak Kuhr threw more change-ups to break that tendency by mixing in quarters-family coverages. Mainly, poach coverage, a match-quarters variation. The Pats majored in quarters (15 drop-backs) and mixed in some Cover-6 to show the Dolphins different coverage structures than what they previously saw on tape.

The main coverage the Patriots played vs. the Dolphins was "poach" quarters. In poach, the backside is locked like it's man coverage, with top CB Christian Gonzalez often taking the solo receiver. That frees up the weak safety to match the inside receiver (No. 3) to the trips side while the rest of the coverage to passing strength plays like Cover-2. CB Carlton Davis III jumps an out as a flat defender in Willis's initial read, and by the time the Dolphins QB comes off it, rookie OLB Gabe Jacas closes the loop for a sack.

The Patriots also played some downs in Cover-6, or quarter-quarter-half, where the defense is playing quarters to one side and Cover-2 to the other. Willis wants to throw the out up top but Davis is there to jump it again as the flat defender in the Cover-2 side. The quarters "box" then takes away Willis's in-breaking route over the middle of the field, and he takes a sack.

New England had some high-quality reps in their split-safety zones. However, the Dolphins started to get a feel for their quarters checks. For example, Miami calls a classic poach beater here where TE Greg Dulcich runs a corner-stop route away from the poaching safety. Davis widens to play the flat, the vertical route from the outside receiver occupies S Kevin Byard III as the deep-half player, and the short route draws NCB Marcus Jones. As a result, S Craig Woodson is out-leveraged on the route and its a 19-yard gain.

Before we start writing that it's a complete shift into the quarters family, we'll have to let the sample size grow by a few more weeks. The Patriots were playing some poach coverage before this, but nothing like the 15 drop-backs in quarters we saw on Sunday. Overall, there will be some growing pains and new coverage beaters from opposing offenses whenever there's a schematic shift. Still, it was good to see Kuhr come out of the mini-bye with some new wrinkles since the Patriots tricky Cover-2s were getting a little stale.

Quick-hit Film Notes from Patriots-Dolphins

Offense

- The run plan from Patriots OC Josh McDaniels was one I could get behind. The Pats produced a positive EPA per rush (+0.04) for the fourth time this season with a good mix of split-flow zone, counter, and a few RPOs while still running their inside zone and duo staples. The split-zone schemes produced runs of 20, 10, and 9 yards. The Pats motioned on 65.6% of their run plays, second-highest in a game this season behind only the win in Buffalo, producing 5.0 YPC when they motioned – more, please.

- RB Rhamondre Stevenson didn't register an explosive run, but he had nine successful runs on his 19 carries with zero stuffs. Stevenson chipped away with gains of 9 (split-zone), 7 (inside zone), and several four-or-five yard gains to keep the offense on schedule. He also converted two third-and-short runs while catching a low check-down pass from Maye to move the chains as a receiver. Stevenson continues to do the dirty work for this offense.

- RB Corey Kiner had a great jump-cut to cutback inside split-zone that made Dolphins LB Jordyn Brooks miss in the hole for a 20-yard gain. He also hit the same scheme for a 10-yard run in the fourth quarter. Kiner was stuffed on a sweep play on third down and allowed a pressure in blitz pickup, but his jump-cut ability and burst as a runner are a nice change-up. He gets downhill fast, sees it well, and is decisive.

- WR DeMario Douglas could've had more volume sitting in some zone voids for Maye, but the Pats QB was hesitating at times to pull the trigger early. Douglas's 48-yard TD was a huge sign of growth to be more decisive in the open field after creating separation on his "squirrel" route. He also stayed level working across the field on his 26-yard PA cross, and just got the line to gain on a fourth-down conversion. Douglas's route-running is improving. He's sharper in his breaks and seeing the zone coverages well.

- WR Kyle Williams spent most of the afternoon clearing out space in a game that Maye admitted took him a half or so to start opening things up in the rain. Williams had a chance early if Maye had started on his side of the field (see audio breakdown), and delivered late with his 43-yard TD on a deep post inside the 989 concept.

- WR Efton Chism III's fumble came on an outlet pass underneath the sail concept that Maye correctly checked down. Chism had to hang on to the ball there, but he did move the chains on a fourth-down extended drop-back (12 yards) and caught an 8-yard curl, 7-yard shallow cross, and a 6-yard out. Besides the fumble, my only slight criticism of Chism is that he needs to get into his vertical releases faster. That's not his game, but Maye was waiting for him a few times on deeper in-breakers.

- TE Hunter Henry caught a 20-yard sail route in a play-action concept, a 6-yard screen, and a 4-yard out where he appeared to suffer his foot injury. He also had a plus-crack block on a third-down conversion and a stuffed run block. Henry was headed for a high-volume day.

- TE Eli Raridon didn't have as many vertical opportunities in this game, mostly running shallow crossers, outs, and releases into the flats. Miami plays a lot of split-safety zone, which takes away the seams, so that might be why he didn't get vertical routes. Raridon's blocking skewed mostly positive, especially his combo/climbs inside split-zone schemes, where he helped produce runs of 20 and 10 yards. However, he false started twice, dropped a pass in the flat, and was on the scene for two stuffed runs – a busy day for the rook.

- TEs Tanner Arkin and Cameron Latu each delivered some plus-sift blocks working across the formation where they kick out the unblocked end, contributing to all three positive runs on split-zone. Arkin was called for a hold when a run bounced off his outside edge, but the Pats depth TEs had some solid run blocks.

- LT Will Campbell was rock solid in his matchups vs. Josh Uche (8) and Chop Robinson (3). Campbell allowed just one hurry to Robinson and had three standout run blocks: crack toss pull (third-down), backside reach/combo (20-yard run), backside reach/combo (9-yard run). Campbell's reach blocks to set up the cutbacks in split-zone were terrific, as was his snatch-trap move that put Uche into the ground on a 1-on-1 pass rush rep. Campbell controls his matchups vs. league-average competition. But the real tests are coming against better defenses.

- The Patriots started Walter Rouse at left guard, but he seemed to get benched for allowing two quick pressures on stunts, including a sack on a T/E twist by Uche. Backup Ben Brown gave up one hurry on 12 pass-blocking snaps to a swim move and allowed a stuffed run after entering at halftime. I'd expect Brown to get the start vs. the Packers next week, but we'll see.

- C Jared Wilson had one poor snap that killed a third down in the rain and could've helped sooner on a third-down pressure where he was uncovered. But his second-level climbs in the run game stood out, especially on Stevenson's early crack-toss conversion on third down. Wilson led the Pats with a 15.6% positively graded run-block rate, per PFF. He's on the cusp of becoming a very solid center, with active eyes in pass pro and better block sustain at the second level as areas he could improve to take that final step.

- RG Matt Pryor gives the Patriots a similar body type to starting RG Mike Onwenu, which allows the Pats to use him on base/down blocks at the point of attack in the run game. Pryor's execution is hit-or-miss, with a 28.1% negatively graded run-block rate. I had him on the scene for three stuffed runs while allowing pressure on two stunts. Overall, he's not sinking the ship and is their best option until AVT gets healthy.

- RT Morgan Moses gave up two short corners to speed-rusher Chop Robinson, which is to be expected, and the right side of the O-Line is going to keep getting tested on stunts. That's a work in progress as Moses and Pryor get used to playing together. Moses's sack came on the last drop-back of the first half, so I wouldn't hold that one against him.

- QB Pressures (Pressure Rate - 51.9%): Moses (sack, two hurries), Rouse (sack, hurry), Pryor (two hurries), Brown (hurry), Campbell (hurry), Wilson (hurry), Raridon (hurry), Maye (sack, two hurries).

Defense

- The Patriots run defense held a frisky Dolphins rushing attack to a 30.4% success rate, New England's best rushing success rate in a game this season. The Pats also registered a season-high 26.1% stuffed rate. Miami didn't run many pulling schemes, which was surprising. The Phins only 10-plus yard runs came on a trap scheme on a 3rd-and-3 (last Miami drive) and 16 yards on duo where the Dolphins blocked a twist by LBs Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss. Overall, good stuff in the trenches.

- LB Christian Elliss continues to make impact plays with a team-high four run stuffs and three pressures. Elliss logged pressures as the pick player on a stunt, closing down on a Willis boot, and rushing with speed off the edge. He also made a terrific interception as a zone-dropper, but the INT was called back due to an offside penalty (Jones). Elliss's lone blemish was missing a tackle on RB Ollie Gordon in the hole on his 16-yard run. Elliss is a strong contract extension candidate and is having a terrific year.

- DT Milton Williams was highly disruptive despite not registering a TFL. He recorded three total pressures, mostly on stunts where he came free as the pick player and then looped off Spillane's pick later in the game. Williams also had two stuffed runs, affected an errant tunnel screen by getting in the passing lane, retraced to make the tackle on a 3rd-and-long screen, and got rookie Gabe Jacas free on his sack (T/E stunt).

- DT Cory Durden had several impressive reps where he overwhelmed the Dolphins O-Line with his power. Durden logged a 3-yard TFL by powering through outstanding Dolphins C Aaron Brewer's outside shoulder, went through Dolphins RG Jonah Savaiinaea to penetrate the backfield on a run stuff (cleaned up by Elliss), and beat Brewer and Savaiinaea once each on bull-rush pressures. Durden was a menace in this game.

- DT Christian Barmore quickly discarded RG Jonah Savaiinaea's punch with a two-hand swipe on his half-sack. Barmore also looped around on a three-man stunt for a pressure and stuffed a run. I figured Barmore, Durden, and Williams would have their way with the Dolphins guards, Savaiinaea and backup LG Jarret Kingston, and that's exactly what happened.

- DT Leonard Taylor III has had some quality reps while carving out a small role (17 snaps). Taylor stuffed a run by separating from a down block in a power scheme and logged a hurry.

- Rookie OLB Gabe Jacas left the game with a knee injury but was in good spirits in the locker room post-game. Jacas flashed his burst on a sack looping around Williams's pick on a stunt, and his suddenness/twitch to swim over Dolphins TE Will Kacmarek. Jacas played only 18 snaps because of the injury but still had his usual standout reps in limited action.

- OLB Elijah Ponder had a team-high four total pressures, winning two 1-on-1 matchups with Dolphins tight ends and logging pressure with his bull rush on LT Patrick Paul. Ponder also had a nice forced incompletion in coverage, peeling out of the rush into a flat zone, and had a snap as an off-ball linebacker on the first play from scrimmage, which was new.

- OLB Dre'Mont Jones was called for an offside penalty that wiped out Elliss's interception (it looked like Jones's upper body was barely in the neutral zone). But he also logged three total pressures with two bull rushes and a rip move to create a short corner on Dolphins RT Austin Jackson.

- LB Robert Spillane had two good coverage reps driving down as a short zone-dropper, one of which was when he drove the pocket to punch the ball out of Dulcich's hands on third down. Although he logged a stuffed run, Spillane was a beat late to press climbing blockers on a 7-yard run and was on the scene on Gordon's 16-yard run.

- CB Christian Gonzalez allowed completions of 23 and 18 yards on deep outs in front of his zone drops. The 23-yarder came on an inverted Tampa-2 rotation where he was dropping into the deep half, a tough route to cover in that technique. But the 18-yarder was an out by WR Caleb Douglas when Gonzalez was playing a quarters technique. He also allowed a third-down conversion to WR Malik Washington, who was lined up in the backfield in a unique formation. Overall, Gonzalez got schemed up a few times, but you still expect better from the Pats CB1.

- CB Carlton Davis III returned from a three-game absence and allowed a team-high eight catches for 60 yards. Davis got a little loose at the top of the route in man coverage when Dolphins receivers were coming out of stack or bunch alignments, allowing an 8-yard dig to Tolbert and a 6-yard out to Coleman for third-down conversions. Davis didn't allow any explosives and stuffed a run, but a few chain-moving completions found their way into his coverage.

- NCB Marcus Jones allowed just three catches for 18 yards as the primary defender in coverage and stuffed a crack toss run with one of his impressive, hard-nosed tackles. Jones quickly keyed crossers and played threats into zones high-to-low to force shorter completions, including jumping an underneath route for a diving PBU. He could've dropped further to shrink the window to Dulcich on his 19-yard catch, but that wasn't his primary responsibility. Overall, I thought Jones was the Pats best corner on Sunday.

- S Craig Woodson is not afraid to fill with a run stuff from the second level and a screaming tackle from his split-safety perch on a Dolphins end around. However, he dropped an interception in man coverage on a Dulcich cross when Willis's fastball deflected off his tight end and allowed a 19-yard completion on a third-down coverage beater to Dulcich (went over this already).

- S Kevin Byard III got switched onto Washington with a short motion on the goal line that resulted in a 1-yard TD – that's not a matchup the Patriots want. Byard logged his first INT as a Patriot when DT DaQuan Jones tipped a Willis pass attempt to a deep curl, and Byard fielded the deflection for a pick. Overall, Jones made a good play to get his hands in the passing lane, and Byard made an opportunistic interception.

- S Jaylen Reed played 11 snaps in big nickel, logging a sack on a green dog blitz when the tight end he was covering in man-to-man blocked. CB Charles Woods played one snap for Davis late and was beat on a 35-yard TD by WR Kevin Coleman on a double move as a locked defender on the backside of quarters.

- QB pressures (pressure rate - 41.7%): Ponder (sack, three hurries), Elliss (sack, two hurries), Durden (sack, QB hit, hurry), Williams (three hurries), Dre. Jones (three hurries), Jacas (sack, hurry), Barmore (two hurries), Taylor (hurry), Reed (sack). Run stuffs: Elliss (4), Williams (2), one each (Jacas, Taylor, Farmer, Woodson, Barmore, Durden, M. Jones, Spillane, Davis).

- Coverage: Davis (9/8/60 yards), Gonzalez (5/3/46 yards), Woods (35-yard TD), Woodson (3/2/23 yards), Elliss (2/2/22 yards), Byard (2/2/7 yards/TD), Spillane (3/0/2 PBUs), Ponder (PBU).

​

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer

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