Experts share their picks for the Patriots Wild Card matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Mike Reiss, ESPN:
Pick: Patriots 17, Chargers 16
Two evenly matched teams who are well coached, physical and make you beat them more than beating themselves. Sets up a down-to-the-wire type of game.
Matt Bowen, ESPN: Patriots
Mike Clay, ESPN: Patriots
Chris Fowler, ESPN: Chargers
Dan Graziano, ESPN: Patriots
Kalyn Kahler, ESPN: Chargers
Pamela Maldonado, ESPN: Patriots
Eric Moody, ESPN: Patriots
Jason Reid, ESPN: Patriots
Lindsey Thiry, ESPN: Patriots
NFL.com
Ali Bhanpuri, NFL.com: Patriots 23, Chargers 20
Brooke Cersosimo, NFL.com: Patriots 25, Chargers 20
Dan Parr, NFL.com: Patriots 23, Chargers 20
Gennaro Filice, NFL.com: Chargers 23, Patriots 20
Tom Blair, NFL.com: Patriots 26, Chargers 22
Why Gennaro picked the Chargers: Because New England lacks the edge rush to exploit Los Angeles' fully exposed Achilles' heel. The Chargers have suffered devastating carnage at offensive tackle this season, inherently subjecting Justin Herbert to weekly beatings and a career-high 54 sacks taken. It's the thing that keeps me from buying the Bolts as true Super Bowl contenders: Eventually, my thinking goes, they'll run into some QB hunters who'll rock Herbert and wreck an elimination game. I still suspect that ultimately will be the case, with prolific pass-rushing teams like Denver and Houston lurking in the AFC field. But in Round 1, L.A. draws New England, which finished the regular season tied for 22nd in sacks. The Patriots' best edge rusher, Harold Landry III, has missed the past two games due to a nagging knee issue. K'Lavon Chaisson was a revelation in the first half of the season, but this past Sunday's garbage-time chase-down of Miami's Quinn Ewers marked his first sack since early November. (Shoutout to the man for triggering that $500K incentive, though!) I'm just not sure this defense -- which has been dealing with additional injuries to key figures like LB Robert Spillane -- has the horses to terrorize Herbert. On the other hand, the Chargers' D appears pretty well-equipped to keep a lid on Drake Maye. The second-year pro has been wildly efficient as a deep passer, but Jesse Minter's unit typically limits downfield gains. All in all, I just don't love this matchup for the resurgent Pats. Mike Vrabel did a brilliant job in Year 1, turning a 4-13 bottom-feeder into a 14-3 division champ, but I think the magical ride comes to a screeching halt on Sunday night.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports:
Pick: Patriots 24, Chargers 23
This is a long trip for the Chargers. It's also a big game for quarterback Justin Herbert, who has yet to win a playoff game. The problem is the offensive line in front of him has issues. The Patriots defense should be able to limit the Chargers' run game and pressure Herbert. On the other side, the Chargers have a top 10 defense and that could challenge Drake Maye. The Patriots have averaged 168.6 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry over the last five games, so look for them to run it early and often. If Herbert isn't protected on the other side, it could be a long night for the Chargers. But this is Maye's first playoff game and the Chargers defense is good against the pass. It's close, but the Pats win it late.
Jared Dubin, CBS Sports: Patriots
Ryan Wilson, CBS Sports: Patriots
John Breech, CBS Sports: Chargers
Tyler Sullivan, CBS Sports: Patriots
Dave Richard, CBS Sports: Patriots
Jamey Eisenburg, CBS Sports: Patriots
Pro Football Talk
Mike Florio: Patriots 27, Chargers 20
Chris Simms: Patriots 20, Chargers 17
Paul Perillo, Patriots.com:
Pick: Patriots 31, Chargers 27
Drake Maye kicks off his postseason career with an impressive victory.
Mike Dussault, Patriots.com:
Pick: Patriots 33, Chargers 31
The Patriots are at home and are the healthier overall team, that gives them an edge, but Justin Herbert has the ability to take a game over. Pressuring him will be a huge key and I believe the Patriots get it done, but it will be a back-and-forth rollercoaster.
Evan Lazar, Patriots.com:
Pick: Patriots 27, Chargers 20
The Patriots come out of the gate fast feeding off the energy in the stadium to build a lead at halftime, but have to hold on late as the Chargers defense clamps down and Herbert rallies LA. In the end, New England has too much offense and gets the win.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
